July 29, 2014

While We’re Waiting… Attendance woes, Ubaldo’s mechanics and Alonzo Gee’s future

While We’re Waiting serves as the early morning gathering of WFNY-esque information for your viewing pleasure. Have something you think we should see? Send it to our tips email at tips@waitingfornextyear.com.

Everyone is talking about the Tribe attendance- “But really, when it comes to the Tribe and attendance, not much surprises me. The Indians, even with the 30-15 start last year, finished with the seventh-lowest attendance mark in the Majors, were dead last in 2010, were fifth-lowest in 2009 and were 22nd out of 30 a year after reaching the ALCS.

This is what’s called a trend, and it’s part of the package here in a town that’s endured declining population and economic downturn and really doesn’t have baseball on the brain. It should surprise absolutely nobody that the city that ranked first nationally in TV ratings for the NFL Draft is the same city that ranks 30 out of 30 in MLB attendance, because this is a Browns town, through and through, and the once-in-a-lifetime Indians sellout streak of the 1990s was the product of a combination of unique factors (no Browns, strong economy, new ballpark, great team, downtown renaissance, etc.) that will never combine again.” [Castrovince/MLB.com]

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Breaking down Ubaldo’s mechanics. A must read for Tribe fans. With video.  “Since his average fastball velocity was similar but the arm actions were so different on the 91 and 95 mph fastballs, it’s clear that the real problem is consistency in his delivery. Ubaldo’s main problem is still the early hand break (with secondary thought to how he uses the front shoulder and glove arm), and while it’s encouraging to see fastballs touch 95 mph, his arm action isn’t yet as efficient or athletic as it was when he was in Colorado. The closer he gets to optimizing his arm action and remaining consistent with it, the better results you’ll see with not only his fastball velocity, but his overall command and control. [Boddy/Hardball Times]

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Interesting. Look at the chart in this piece and tell me the Cavs weren’t wise trading Sessions for another 1st rounder- “If you read this far through my dis-jointed 2011 draft follow-up; I’m impressed. Now you get to see the somewhat arbitrary table where I rank the top 49 players from this year’s class. Enjoy!! Hopefully this endeavor has greatly improved my and your “draft expert”-ing. The table includes Minutes, PER, Win Shares per 48 minutes, and adjusted plus / minus (with standard deviation). If the player did not play enough minutes to qualify for adjusted plus / minus, I included their unadjusted impact on their team’s 100 possession efficiency.” [Hetrick/Cavs the Blog]

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“The Browns in 2012 used their first three picks on offensive players for the first time since 2009 when they took center Alex Mack in the first round and wide receivers Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi in the second round. Prior to 2009, the last time they went back-to-back-to-back on offense was 1985 when all seven draft picks played offense led by running back Greg Allen in the first round. That same year they drafted wide receivers Fred Banks, Reggie Langhorne and Shane Swanson, guards Greg Krerowicz and Larry Williams plus tight end Travis Tucker.” [The OBR]

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“I think the Cavaliers would re-sign him for sure if the contract came in around $4 million over a guaranteed period of three years too. This is me speculating here, because again, my source did not tell me anything about the life of the hypothetical contract offer. To further speculate though, there’s no way the Cavaliers would go as far as committing to Gee for as many as five seasons I wouldn’t think, nor would I really think they should make that long-term of a committment either. I kinda doubt anyone else would go five years too for whatever that’s worth, but four years guaranteed is probably what Gee will be looking for. I’d imagine teams will counter with three years guaranteed, and a club option for the fourth. I’m not sure the Cavaliers should go any further than matching a deal like that too. Four years guaranteed might be too many, and probably unnecessary. ” [Bowers/Stepien Rules]

  • dwhit110

    Totally agree with Bowers. Something like $4MM over 3 years seems about right for a player with Gee’s track record.

  • Donovanpresley

    I don’t know why everyone is so surprised by the lack of attendance. I’m as excited as anyone about this team, but this is virtually the same team as last year. Started 30 and 15 and then collapsed. People are understandably sceptical.

  • mgbode

    not sure what to get out of that chart?  yes, the Cavs were smart to get a 1st round pick (and a chance to swap in ’13) for Sessions.  But, last year’s draft was pretty weak even if a guy like Faried did drop to #22. 

    hopefully, our FO can figure out which guys that drop are the ones to nab.

  • Nobody

    Well, the Indians would draw better if they moved to another market…Hell, Pittsburgh draws better than the Tribe

  • mgbode
  • Natedawg86

    I don’t know if I would follow baseball if CLE didn’t have a team.

  • CJG

    I call shenanigans on the attendance issue.  I watch other games, including great teams, and there stadiums are just as empty.  First we need to ask just how different attendance is between last place and 10 places above that…then 20 places above last.  Its May, kids are still in school, and a lot of these games are at weird times.  Who goes to a baseball game in early May on Monday at 1:05pm?  No one, that’s who.  This conversation would be VASTLY more important if it was discussed in July or August…but not early May.

  • Jay

    I agree. Plus it’s been colder than a witches you-know-what downtown lately. I’ll wait until it warms up a little before I freeze my dupa off watching the Tribe. As the weather warms up, so will attendance.

  • mgbode

    I watch quite a few other teams and have to say you are incorrect.  no team’s ballpark looks as barren as a Tribe homegame and the numbers back that up.

    early May sets the stage for the whole year.  yes, the numbers will get better, but the worse the numbers are now the harder it will be for them to go up overall.

    we are not just in last, but in last by alot (#s per game).  
    4300 behind the 29th White Sox (2nd to last)
    10500 behind the 20th Cincinatti Reds
    20000 behind the 10th Detroit Tigers (who are 3GB by the way)
    30500 behind the 1st place Philadelphia Phillies

    yes, the Phillies actually could “fill” a 3game homestand for us with one of their games attendance figures.

  • REEPJP

    Ubaldo’s pitching can be compared to my bowling.  If I’m in the zone and releasing the ball consistently I’m a 180 average bowler…If I’m not, I struggle to break 100.  The consistency in release usually disappears after the first pitcher or two of beer, therefore I conclude that Ubaldo is boozing it up in the dugout.

  • Harv 21

    Science!

  • mgbode

    my consistency usually gets better after the 1st pitcher of beer but then wanes during/after the 2nd.   he just needs to learn to nurse the beer a bit when the Indians offense is having a big inning.