Lubinger: Q&A With Mark Shapiro
June 10, 2012Box Score: Indians 4, Cardinals 1
June 10, 2012
When the NBA Draft Lottery dust settled and the Cavalier contingent was a bit downtrodden to see their sword and basketball logo pop up in the #4 envelope, I was among those thinking of what could have been. If the Cavaliers had nabbed the second or third pick, they were guaranteed either Kentucky forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Florida guard Bradley Beal, the two realistic scenarios that kept Cavalier fans with their eye on the ultimate prize in the doldrums of late spring losses in #TankStrong season. However, the more I think about, watch film, and listen to news reports, the more I think the Cavaliers need to take a patient approach and see what falls to them at the four slot.
With the unibrowed one, Anthony Davis, already with his bags packed for New Orleans, it’s pointless to discuss him any further. Instead, if the Cavaliers stay at four, it’s likely that Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal, North Carolina forward Harrison Barnes, Kansas forward Thomas Robinson, or Connecticut center Andre Drummond will be a Cavalier. Yes, there’s always the possibility of Connecticut guard Jeremy Lamb, though he could potentially be had after a trade down. I’ve watched film on all of these guys recently to a varying degree as well as getting a look at each of them in several games throughout the college basketball season, and what I see is a lot of similar talent level.
Let me say that if you gave me my pick of anyone but Davis, I’d sprint up to the podium and knock David Stern over, handing him a card that said “Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, forward, Kentucky”. MKG is a game-changer on the defensive end of the floor, the type of guy who could guard anyone from an ankle-breaking Rajon Rondo to a MVP-caliber creator in LeBron James. He’s comfortable posting up on the block, offensive rebounding, and he’s got a knack for penetration and finishing. His shot remains a work in progress, but the type of impact he could make now and grow into even more makes me salivate. The questions remains, however, what would it take to get MKG? If it’s moving up to the 2nd pick, what does that involve? Is it as simple as giving up the 4th and 24th picks? Not likely. It probably involves some combination of taking on a bad contract and additional future draft considerations. As much as I love Kidd-Gilchrist and would be excited to see him reunited with his high school teammate, I don’t think the Cavaliers should trade up at this time. For those who hold out hope, there are some mock drafts that have Kidd-Gilchrist slipping to fourth or even fifth, but I just don’t see both Charlotte and Washington passing up on a swingman like that.
There’s Beal, the sweet shooter who is a little bit undersized as a shooting guard with average athleticism. Beal does show an ability to rebound the ball and get open on his shots that could make him one of the best knockdown shooters in the game. He’s touted as having a high basketball IQ, and it doesn’t take long to see that in the film as you see him making the right “shoot vs. pass vs. drive” decision time and time again. Beal’s going to make some point guard very happy someday soon with increased assist totals from Beal’s treys.
After that, it gets interesting, for the Cavaliers, I think they’d like to have their choice of two of MKG, Beal, and Barnes at four ideally. For that to happen, someone’s got to like Robinson or Drummond enough to take them 2 or 3. There’s plenty of mock draft outlets that see one of those scenarios happening.
When you watch Robinson play, he pops off the screen for several reasons. He has a nice pick and roll game as well as a perimeter touch while remaining plenty physical enough to handle the NBA power forward position. I recall him doing a nice job on the much larger Tyler Zeller of North Carolina on the defensive end as well. Whereas Kidd-Gilchrist, Barnes, and Drummond had other primary weapons in their offensive attacks, Robinson was largely relied upon to be the guy for KU. If we didn’t already have Tristan Thompson, I may be a little bit higher on both T-Rob and Drummond. If Robinson is clearly the best player available, however, and they value him over Barnes, they have to make the pick and figure out what to do with Tristan eventually (either a move back to center, a bench role, or a trade).
Drummond’s position doesn’t conflict with Tristan’s, as he’ll slide back to power forward this year in all likelihood. But, it’s the fact that he’s been dubbed a project, much like Thompson, that makes you wonder if you can have two offensively raw big men playing side by side. Make no mistake, Drummond appears to have a much higher ceiling on the offensive end, but given that he won’t even be 19 years by the time he’s drafted, you’re going to have to wait a few years to get the entire package. What you do see in highlights is devastating blocks, a physical body willing to defend in the post, and a forceful finisher. Big men are always tougher to read (at least for me), and they have a higher bust rate. The Cavaliers CANNOT miss on this pick, and the one of these five that scares me the most in terms of washing up is undoubtedly Drummond.
Then, there’s Harrison Barnes, who for the record I believe will have his #40 trimmed in wine and gold come October. Last year, before the early entries declared, there was an unbelievable buzz about Barnes, and rumors were the Cavaliers loved him. Then, he chose to go back to school and some did not see the progression that they expected. He increased his scoring from 15.7 to 17.1 points per game while he increased his field goal and three point percentages with his minutes staying virtually the same (29.4 down to 29.2). All of that while playing alongside fellow lottery hopefuls Tyler Zeller, Kendall Marshall, and John Henson, not to mention a lottery pick next year in James Michael McAdoo. That’s what I noticed most about Barnes when watching some games of his. Where some see passiveness and an inability create, I saw a guy who wasn’t selfish and realized he was playing with a lot of other talent. For short bursts, there’s no one in this grouping that showed that takeover ability quite like Barnes has in my mind. He’s also a very impressive young man to hear interviewed. Some will feel like we are settling if we take Barnes at four; I won’t. Go back and look at the Duke film a year ago, and you will see some of the same unselfishness in Irving, who was playing alongside talent (though not lottery talent) in Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler.
Whoever is ultimately selected, it’s a fun time to be a Cavalier fan. One of these highly talented players is going to give Kyrie Irving some much needed help in the scoring department and hopefully be a longterm fixture at Quicken Loans Arena.
27 Comments
Amazing how 1 year can swing a following like the Barnes train..lol. I still think he’d be perfect.
It seems to me like the Cavs would take Barnes over Beal and even Barnes over MKG. I guess the Jeffrey Wechsler connection is the main reason why I think so. Similar to how the Browns took Phil Taylor, who had the same agent as Joe Thomas, and then re-signed Thomas later that summer
could we still get Barnes at 6 if we trade down with POR? Rumors are going around that POR wants to move up into the top 4 for TRob or Drummond. If we could trade #4 and #24 for #6 and #11 and get Barnes and Waiters, that would be a steal!!!
I already said this in another thread, but I think that they should take Drummond. He has the most physical talent of anyone in the draft, and he succeeded (although with limits) in college. The main objective in getting him, though, would be to be a bad team for another year, and get another high pick next year. Otherwise, they’ll take Barnes, compete for the eighth seed this year, and never get beyond that, given the talent they have.
Look at all the teams that were playing late. In order to make the finals, and this year even the conference semis, you need to not only draft well, but get really lucky in a way that allows you to add that second level talent. Miami and Boston are obvious, for SA it was adding two of the big three later in the draft, even once they were good, for OKC it was having an insane number of picks in a couple years, and for Chicago, it was being bad even after they added some talent. If they’d drafted a Rose before they drafted Deng and Noah, they wouldn’t be as good, because they’d have been near the eighth seed right away. Instead, they got Deng, who became solid but not great, and Noah, who was a project, and then still had enough failure in the tank to land Rose. Now they’re stacked. That’s what we need to do.
Nope, Chicago got rose because they got super lucky in the lottery that year. Plain luck, nothing else.
By all means, let’s mirror the Bulls’ draft strategy of the last decade. Can we stay in the lottery long enough to get Elton Brand, Marcus Fizer, Jamal Crawford, Eddy Curry, Jay Williams, Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose, all with top 10 picks? Can’t wait for year 10 of the rebuilding plan!
If you think Drummond is the top prospect (a not unreasonable opinion but not one I share) then take him. If not, take the guy you think is going to be the best player. Stop trying to tank next season 6 months before it starts.
Kirk: Well-stated. I’m entirely in agreement that I don’t see anyone in the 2-7 pack as being head and shoulders above the others. I think I’m a bigger Beal fan than most, but completely happy with Barnes or MKG.
The Bulls model would involve us drafting Andre Drummond and introducing him to Melt, and then hoping that one of our franchise players gets into a career-destroying motorcycle acciden–get me Kellen Winslow on the phone
It’s not really that tough. Barnes never improved his sophomore and he is not a superstar ceiling type player. Can anyone definitively say that MKG or Barnes will have a better career than Moe Harkless(I think these players are really good and would take either one). Barnes is solid and worth his upside but T-Rob is a beast and has the all star type talent we are looking for. If you can take Moe Harkless later with T-Rob then it’s almost like getting MKG and T-Rob together. You can’t find high motor athletic phenoms like T-Rob later in draft but you can find shooting guards and small forwards later this year in draft who are potential all stars. Drummond is raw. If the cavs fell in love with Barnes already and never saw that he stepped his game up the next year then I’m disappointed they can’t see what is so obvious. He is a good player but way to passive on offense and terrible at defense. He has no intensity to him and I would be disappointed that we would choose him over T-Rob if he is there. If T-Rob isn’t there I hope we trade down and acquire another pick. Maybe we can work out a deal for portlands #11 pick and grab PJ3 if he is still there. This draft has some real upside players and if we walk out with Barnes and some raw big guy that never plays at #24 which I’m expecting gilbert and grant to do then no wonder why we stink.
Barnes, MGK, or Drummond
Kirk, good thoughts and I agree that after Davis the next cluster are all pretty closely packed. That, and they all have an identifieable weakness to overcome. Impossible to know for sure which ones will do it.
I kinda feel like the Cavs may have to make a choice between MKG and Barnes (I know to most of us it isn’t a choice but to them it might be). No question Davis has freak potential, but speaking just on basketball skills to me Thomas Robinson is the best all around player in the draft. He needs to expand his range a little and develop post moves beyond bulling players who are almost all smaller then him. He rebounds plays defense, has anNBA ready body, Point being its going to be tough for Jordan to pass on him given their only draft need is to not screw up. If Robinson goes to Charlotte, Washington is going to have to choose between drafting a defensive minded wing – just like they did last year – or a 2 guard, which they don’t have right now. Again I’m guessing based on Was and Cha making decisions that make basketball sense, which neither of them have.
Even if they took MKG and Beal respectively can someone tell me what is so horrible about the Cavs taking Robinson? Has anyone ever watched a game and thought “Gee, my team is to long, and athletic up front? I hate having 3 really versatile big men who move without the ball, rebound like maniacs and play defense somewhere from pesky to nasty? The only down side to this is that they would absolutely have to either nail the 24 pick with a wing, or do what it takes to move up and get a wing, or run the risk of becoming Milwaukee 2.0 with bigs and a point guard but no wing scoring.
also, on the Bobcats. they just traded an older version of MKG (Gerald Wallace).
so, if they draft MKG, then are they apologizing to their fans for trading the best player in their franchise history? are they admitting a mistake? both? even if they don’t feel that is the case, will the questions about it (and there will be questions) fuel the famously stubborn Jordan to go a different route?
You know I was wondering the same exact thing Jaker. I just dont know if Barnes will be there at 6 if we drop back. I do think Drummond will be there and he is less of a risk outside of the top 5 but I dont really want him. If we could snag Waiters at 11 it would be the steal of the draft!
how involved is Michael Jordan in Charlotte’s selection? I’d feel more certain of them screwing it up only If he is not ceding personnel control to Cho.
Don’t see Cavs taking Robinson because they did not draft Tristan so high to be a bench player, and he is just too small and light to be playing serious minutes at center, even in this era. Quite the opposite: I see them giving him big minutes at PF this year, and that was the plan when they took him. Taking Robinson would imply that Tristan has disappointed them and/or that they think Robinson has such talent that they are already willing to ditch last year’s long-term rebuild strategy. Don’t think either one is true. In any case, I think this draft will give us a lot more insight into Grant’s long-term vision.
We have to be able to notice the difference between tanking next season six months before it starts, and the Cavs front office realizing there’s no chance it puts a real contender on the court for the next year or two, and adjusting their strategy accordingly. Scratching and clawing to 35 wins next year does nothing for us, and sets us back if we have to eat up precious salary and luxury cap space in the process. Build a contender for the long-term and suck it up in the short term.
agreed. i think the best thing that could happen to the Cavs is if TRob starts climbing and teams want him over MKG/Beal. Im totally fine with Barnes, but I would also like to get a SG and big man in the draft
This is the first post that a lot of your points I agree with. I expect Gilbert and Grant to pass over on really good players to pick their hand selected guy. I expect for them to pick the wrong guy at #24. If we could get T-Rob, Moe Harkless, and Draymond Green out of this draft our team would be on a great path. If we get Barnes and a couple of projects then Gilbert and Grant are awful at their jobs as far as basketball is concerned.
noone knows, which is problematic in figuring this stuff out. was Cho hired to do all the legwork and let Jordan make the final decisions based on it (I have read that) or was he hired to take all responsibility (also have read that). hopefully, we get a better read on it as the draft approaches.
I am in the minority, but I don’t think Tristan affects the T.Robinson decision all that much. In this day and age, you really do need at least 3 prominent frontcourt players (if not 4) and there are plenty of minutes for all there (especially with 10-15min per game small-ball lineups, etc.).
I just think that the wing players are better than T.Robinson.
I hate using the “OKC model” because I’m technically not, but I compare it to OKC trading a pick for Sefolosha, and then taking Harden the next year. Look at some of the lineups that teams have been rolling out in these playoffs, Boston with Brandon Bass as their center against Miami with Haslem. Ibaka and Duncan aren’t centers either at least in the classic back to the basket offense way.
Again this only works if Robinson is there Grant feels confident he could get a quality wing later on. That being said I don’t see it as an admission of failure to bring in the best lowpost guy in the draft because his skills don’t mimic TT or Andy’s they complement them. Robinson and Irving would intantly give you both an inside and outside presence that require at least some 2ble team attention, which frees up Andy/TT to do what they do best move without the ball find seems for layups or crash the boards. One more time, it only works if you find 2 wings that kill you from distance to keep defenses from just collapsing into the middle.
seams not seems, I’m not dumb just type fast 🙂
So this really comes down to you, the message board poster, being better at Grant’s job than he is. Got it. Also, which three, and only three, players do you like again? I can’t seem to remember. It’s nowhere near as black and white as you want to make it to be.
No your right it’s not black and white. Sometimes people do a great job with awful results. Grant has been a part of the franchise since 2005. I know he’s not the man since then but he had input on this roster. This roster stinks. Great he made one easy pick with Kyrie. You can tell me about all the deals he has made to acquire picks but if he chooses wrong then who cares. I like the fact they were aggressive after Davis. He and Kyrie could make some great things happen. I’ll wait to see what they do but if they pick Barnes at #4 I’ll be nervous because he is not as good as advertised. I’m on record saying I don’t like any picks or free agent acquisitions the cavs have made except for Kyrie since 2005 so why would I not be scared of what they will do. By the way it is black and white. You either know and pick talent or you don’t. You might be wrong 1 out of 4 times and still do well but anything below this isn’t pro level. And in order to do well you have to pick players that contribute to make you a good team. And that’s how you know if you did well or not.
Drummond will not be there at #6 because sacramento at 5 are extremely high on him… I would trade down and hope barnes slips to number #6, then draft jeremy lamb at #11… waiters will not be there at 11
Istill believe charlotte will step in at the very last minute and pick drummond ( unless one not so smart G.M. steps in with multiple picks) and does what ST. LOUIS RAMS did to the WASHINGTON REDSKINS in football… the player worth multiple picks is GONE, and most likely will remain there in NEW ORLEANS….
I believe in team chemistry and since kyrie & gilchrist have played on 1 championship in high school, Grant would follow that logic in trying to build the cavs into a winning NBA franchise with players who are pretty equal… I think kidd- gilchrist is their choice…
Beal would be nice but I think he’s too short. As some of the experts have pointed out we’d have a VERY SHORT back court with Irving & Beal 6’3″ & 6’4″ … anything that says he’s 6’5″ is wrong. He’s 6’4″ in shoes and I don’t count the 2″ thick shoes he wore to the combine. The pick should be Drummond or Barnes and if neither are available it should be Robinson or MKG. I think Robinson is the 2nd best prospect in the draft, it’s just unfortunate he doesn’t play a position of need for us or I’d likely want him over anyone else, outside of Davis.
take BPA. if you like T.Robinson, then go ahead and say we should take him. i have him below the wings, but you take BPA on your board at #4.
i disagree on Beal. for instance, it doesn’t seem to hurt Miami’s defense to have a shorter backcourt. if they can play defense, then all is good.