Penn State Receives NCAA Sanctions
July 23, 2012For Browns, Youth Might be Painful at Times this Season
July 23, 2012Note – no weekend recap today. We all saw the carnage. Hard truths need to be examined. I am just the guy to take on the task.
Reality has finally set in, Tribe fans. The team that has been up, down, up, and down again, has fallen under .500 for the first time since the middle of April after losing three straight to Baltimore over the weekend. Here is the thing – this is who they are, an average team capable of losing eight of nine or winning eight of nine. They have so many flaws. The starting pitching is completely inconsistent from start to start. The bullpen has exactly three guys you can count on. The order is too left-handed heavy and gets little to nothing offensively from both corner infield spots, left field, and DH. You have an underachieving catcher who was supposed to become one of the best in the league this season.
Read all of that, and its incredible to think they have been over .500 this long.
Here is the problem. The Indians decided last season that they were going to go all in at the trade deadline and move their top two pitching prospects for Ubaldo Jimenez. As we have seen over the past full year, GM Chris Antonetti bet on the wrong horse. I’ve said this many times and I will repeat myself; I applauded Antonetti at the time for having the stones to “go for it,” something Indians fans have been begging the organization to do since the Shapiro/Antonetti/Dolan Ownership era really kicked into full swing. They signaled to the rest of the league that the Indians were going to be contenders for the next two to three years.
They saw a window of opportunity, and they went all in. Shin-Soo Choo, a Scott Boras client, will be a free agent after next season. At the time of the Ubaldo deal, Asdrubal Cabrera looked as though he’d be heading towards free agency after 2013 as well. You had budding stars in Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana about to pop. Travis Hafner would finally be healthy and in his last year of his albatross contract. Top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall would be on his way. The rotation would be anchored by a coming into his own ace Justin Masterson, pairing with Jimenez (who the Tribe was betting on to find his former All-Star form) at the top. Innings eaters Josh Tomlin and Fausto Carmona would be in the fold as well. The bullpen back end was loaded with All-Star closer Chris Perez, uber-stud setup man Vinnie Pestano, and the return of the Bullpen Mafia.
During the winter, the organization again made a gigantic mistake, giving broken down Grady Sizemore $5 million guaranteed. The money to me isn’t the issue, its that, like Ubaldo, Antonetti put his faith in a guy who clearly was a major injury risk. The move completely and utterly blew up in his face and by the time the Indians could react, all of the free agents they could have gone after (and did), signed elsewhere.
Antonetti knew he had almost no outfield depth to begin with, even before he decided he would give Sizemore one more shot. They tried to sign Carlos Beltran and failed. Josh Willingham was a real possibility to be the left field, power bat that they needed so badly, but instead of committing to a third year which Willingham wanted, they let him go elsewhere. It is been inferred in many baseball circles that had the Indians given him the third year, Willingham would be in Cleveland right now. At a $21 million for three years price tag, it now looks like the Twins got an absolute steal.
Meanwhile, the Indians have a left field platoon of 38-year old and finished Johnny Damon and Shelley Duncan. The 2013 left field situation and beyond will also be a gaping hole, considering there is nothing above A-Ball even close to being a solution. So the Indians will again spend another winter looking for someone to fill that roll. Someone exactly like Willingham.
So if they were “all in” after making the Ubaldo trade, then why didn’t they add a significant bat in the offseason? Why didn’t they push harder (and perhaps give up fifth starter Josh Tomlin) to add Kevin Youkilis a month ago? Youk has a club option for $13 million for 2013. If he performed well enough to pick it up, the former Boston legend would have been your first baseman next year with Lonnie Chisenhall taking over third full time. Like the left field fiasco, first base will have to be addressed in the offseason as well.
It is all hindsight now (and I was one who didn’t want Youk at the time he was available), but the guy who has been raking for the White Sox (.284/.372/.854/4HR/18 RBI since coming over June 24th) could have provided the shot in the arm this team sorely needed.
I ask again, if the Indians are truly in the “all in” mode, then they had to have done something better in the offseason or by now in-season, right? You don’t trade your top two pitching prospects – two guys who would most likely be on this roster today if that trade wasn’t made – unless you plan on contending right away. Yet now, here we are, with a completely flawed team that has gotten this far with smoke, mirrors, essentially a four-man offense, a great back end of the bullpen, and high-quality managing from Manny Acta.
People say the Indians need to add a bat to stay in this race. They don’t. They need at least two bats. One of them would have been Lonnie Chisenhall, but he broke his forearm. Even so, Lonnie is still a rookie and could you really count on him to add that kind of an impact?
They need another starting pitcher or two as well, whether it be an ace or a middle of the rotation guy. They made the move for Ubaldo last year and they shoved their biggest chips into the middle of the table. Somewhere in Denver, Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd is smirking smugly. The Tribe could be 44-45 with Drew Pomeranz in the rotation and Alex White in the bullpen (I know he started here, but I am of the belief he will end up in the pen) and have the ammo to go after a Zach Grienke or a Matt Garza today if they chose to do so.
Instead, the Tribe not only has nothing to call upon from the minors in terms of starting pitching (Zach McAllister has taken the place of Jeanmar Gomez already), but they don’t have quality high-minors depth to deal from to get any sort of blockbuster addition in here. Other than the newly called-up Cody Allen, the Indians best prospects are either hurt (Chisenhall), or in A-Ball (Francisco Lindor, who the Indians will not trade).
So here we are, eight days from the July 31st trade deadline, and the Indians find themselves at a crossroads. They have to know they have fools gold on their hands, but they are still not that far out of it (four and a half games out of first, four games out of the Wild Card). They will get a starting pitcher added to the roster on August 11th when Roberto Hernandez returns from his three-week MLB suspension for his false identification situation. The scuttlebutt around the league is that the Indians are looking at bats and starting pitching, but is it really worth trading prospects? I just can’t see it.
This week will tell us a lot about which direction the Tribe will go. They welcome the red-hot Detroit Tigers to town Tuesday for a three-game series. The Tigers have their top three pitchers, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander lined up. If the Tribe gets swept, they could find themselves in a deep hole and turn themselves into sellers.
Would they dare put Choo on the market and see how high the bidding could get? Its a great time to be a seller right now and we all know that with Boras being Choo’s agent, he is walking after next season. It would be a P.R. disaster, but it also would be a smart, long term play by Antonetti. But how could he do that knowing he chose the complete opposite path a year ago?
Quite the conundrum.
(photo via Chuck Crow/PD)
33 Comments
What a mess. This series with the Tigers comes at a great time though. I tend to think it will render the rest of the season’s games irrelevant, but in any event, it should at least determine how the Indians proceed from here. If you’re going to see on Choo, one approach might be to try to stockpile assets that could help over the next couple of years.
Bottom line, this organization’s horrid draft history until a few years ago is what has done in this franchise. The margin for error is already going to be small in a small market with small market minded owners. You just can’t swing and miss that many times in the draft and hope to field a consistently contending team.
Antonetti has not done much right in his 2 years as GM, so I have no confidence that he’ll do the right thing at the deadline.
After the egg the team laid this weekend in front of their biggest crowds, I’m not going to blame the fans for not attending games anymore.
it’s fair to mention that the FO made a mistake not giving Josh-W that third year, but I think it’s important to note that he hadn’t been putting these numbers up the past few years and had been injury-prone himself.
outside of that minor quibble, very solid and well-written. hit on all the major points.
i have tried to figure out a way to get something back for Choo that would still play today for us (otherwise: imagine an OF of Duncan/Cunningham/Damon on Brantley’s off-day), but it’s tough to imagine a team like the Reds would give-up a longer-controlled guy like Bruce even if Choo is a (slightly, in this case) better player. more likely (sticking with the Reds) would be to get a disappointing guy like Stubbs along with some minor league talent (like the Astros got trading Bourn with Schafer – though they got flotsam for minor league talent)
Detroit would do Antonetti a favor by driving the nail in further maybe then people would understand just how mediocre this team is instead of being seemingly fooled. I agree with boomer below that it was terrible timing that in front of large crowds this team put up such weak performances.
Willingham was certainly no Sizemore when it came to an injury history!
As far as Choo goes I’ve given up the fantasy of trading him for say a Bruce or something because if I’m the Reds why would I make that trade. Instead maybe a year from now when it’s probably clearer to everyone that the Indians won’t be able to afford Choo they can trade him away like Lee and Sabathia for some more prospects.
This team is absolutely pathetic. Unfun to watch. Horrendous front office and management. The team also is 9-21 in their past 30 Friday, Saturday or Sunday games. Just gross. Really, really, really gross.
I absolutely hate this team. They do nothing well except maybe win games after they have lead post-7 innings.
Mark Shapiro and crew do absolutely nothing to make this team better. I hope they lose every game the rest of this season. F ’em. I’m done,
Been a hugely outspoken supporter of this team all year, but now I’m starting to come to grips with the reality that this team is just no good. Much of the blame needs to be placed, however, less on Antonetti and more on the guys who are on the roster. Ubaldo has not risen to the challenge that the Indians presented him with by making the trade. Tomlin has failed to capitalize on the rotation spot he was given this year and Hagadone, Barnes, and Sipp have been bullpen busts. It’s hard to quibble with Asdrubal seeing that he’s one of the Tribe’s best players, but his second half regressions are very alarming, now that he’s locked in for a few more years. Carlos has not built upon the promise he has shown in the past and Hafner just plain sucks. Antonetti and the FO can only do so much, (Willingham’s track record before this year was nothing to write home about) and the players need to be held accountable too. Outside of Brantley, Choo, and Kipnis offensively and Perez, Smith, and Pestano in the ‘pen, few of them have shown up.
Do you guys know any Reds fans? Ask them if they’d deal Bruce for Choo. Then 5 minutes later, tell them they can stop laughing.
Why do I have a sinking feeling that the FO will say that getting Fausto/Roberto Carmona/Hernandez (hereinafter, “FRCH”) is the big move that we were looking for?
The tigers series is key, but what if CLE wins 2 of 3 or loses 2 of 3? Not much of an impact (1G), but if one sweeps the other, that is a huge game changer
Interesting stat I found yesterday – the Tribe has won 8 games by 5 or more runs, but lost 17 games by 5 or more runs. That means we’re a respectable 39-31 in games decided by 4 or less. It really tells you all you need to know about our team – our starting pitching tends to implode way too much for a contending team, and our offense can’t afford to be in a hole.
Realistically, this means we should probably sell, but I have trouble giving up hope for next year – I think if you add Carrasco to this rotation and Lonnie to the lineup we have a shot in the Central. If we do buy this year, we should definitely try to add pitching. If we can add a consistent starter to the rotation, someone who won’t get tagged for 7 runs in 3 innings once every 2 or 3 starts, we can still compete this season. I don’t think one bat can make up for the inconsistency our starters have shown.
So just for kicks, I ran this by my Reds fan friend. He didn’t laugh, but certainly said that it wouldn’t make sense. The two players are a wash, talent-wise; and there’s no way they’d want to mess with Choo’s contract situation, given that Bruce just signed a 6-year contract.
I guess the laughing was a bit much. But Bruce is only 25, his power has been steadily increasing, and they’ve got him locked up for 6 years. Obviously Choo brings a better average and defense, but you’re right, I don’t see them trading a productive 25 year old OF for a productive 30 yr old OF. I’m sure if Choo was available they’d be interested, but not for Bruce.
True. My friend also said that the last thing the Reds need to do, or would want to do, is unload a left-handed bat. They need lefties. They’d be more likely to unload a righty – which we certainly need (but I don’t have a clue who on the Reds roster that would be).
An interesting exercise, anyway.
We’re not no good. We’re just average. I mean, did anybody really think that we were going to win 90 games this year? I didn’t. I don’t think most did. I always saw us as an 85 win team.
Our hope was always an AL Central that would play down to us. Through June, this looked like a possibility. Now, not so much. The Sox had good June and now the Tigers are getting hot. Worse yet, both have the ability and desire to improve before the trade deadline (see Youk).
Hope aside, I think this year has played out exactly as most of us thought, at least our more rational, pragmatic moments..
Was anybody really fooled? This whole year has been one constant chorus of fan woe about 1B, LF, SP, Damon, Kotchman, Ubaldo, run differential, etc. Nobody is surprised.
You raise a great point and one that irriatets me…the Indians were hoping/looking/counting on the division not being strong which would allow them to compete. Huh, what? I would prefer assembling the best roster possible irregardless of whether you are in the worst or best division. If you count on other teams not playing well it’s you who has the problem. This is why I laughed when people attempted to laugh off the Tigers adding Prince Fielder. They thought the Tigers offense wouldn’t more then make up for any perceived fielding flaws. Think again. But really it was Detroit’s pitching that/was the key. They didn’t start off well but have begun to pick it up meanwhile the offense keeps humming along getting better and as a result they are playing the best when it matters the most.
Oh back in April and May I definitely think so it’s just over time the holes at LF and 1B opened up while 3B became a problem and the SP has imploded all over itself. A team with mediocre talent can’t be expected to overcome all of the shortcomings the Indians have for 162 games. Acta along with Choo, Kipnis, Cabrera and lets not forget Brantley have kept this team afloat. Thank goodness for Brantley because he’s the one “prospect” who looks to have made himself into something.
I laughed at the Prince acquisition because the Tigers could have drastically improved their team by using those funds on other players than Fielder. But you’re right that regardless of the wisdom of spending that money for him, he did improve their team.
As for the Tribe, it all comes back to the million dollar question – how were/are they suppose to improve this team when they have a depleted upper-level farm system and a limited max payroll. Even if you take all the bad money spent and assume we made the best possible acquisitions, how much better does that really make us? If we went and got Willingham, are we as good as the Tigers or the Sox? I don’t think so. I think we’d be in the same situation: a marginal team. And the fanbase would still be screaming to get that “one more piece” to put us over the top.
That’s not to excuse the front office for their poor decisions. I’m just saying that for the Tribe to regularly compete, Antonetti and Co. need to be darn near perfect on every single move they make. And that’s just not realistic.
We are stuck on Dante’s first circle of mid-market hell: limbo, the most boring of all circles.
The lack of farm system talent is really alarming, especially given how many guys we unloaded in 2008-10. Even at the lower levels, it’s not pretty. Which is what makes the prospect of being sellers and hurting our chances next year even more painful.
Chances that he has touched a baseball in the last 6 months versus chances that he has touched some decadent desserts in the last 6 months?
I hear that Fausto’s in great shape.
Unfortunately, Roberto’s not.
Terrible drafting over ten years or so really has taken a toll.
I hear some positives about the lower levels, but most commentators I read seem to think it’s too early to know one way or the other. Lindor seems exciting.
I laughed to but for other reasons.
As for the Indians the questions all seem to be self-inflicted due to poor talent evaluation. I’ve repeatedly questioned their drafting and will continue to do so because as you pointed out in the situation the Indians are in they can’t afford to make mistakes.
I’m not going to play Monday morning QB now the Indians made their bed now they have to lie in it. I’ll just save time and say those decision have obviously not paid off. I just kind of wish they had a direction I think that’s the limbo they are stuck in now. And it’s self imposed because of the decisions they made this winter.
yeah, most always think it’s too early to tell with the lower levels because well they have the longest lead time and alot can change.
which is why I said it was tough to imagine them pulling the trigger and instead they would likely offer Stubbs + prospects.
I no longer trust anyone who cannot see the wisdom in putting Santana second in the line-up, and Cabrera fourth. Santana has scored 2 runs over the past 23 times he has gotten on base. Cabrera has scored 4 runs in the past 8 times he has gotten on base over the same amount of games.
Clearly the Indians are underachieving because Acta won’t do the right and logical thing and put Santana second in the line-up. The line-up should be Choo, Santana, Kipnis, Cabrera, Brantley.
hmm, contenders (let’s stick to ones that seem most “real”) that truly need an OFer:
Dodgers
Giants
Pirates
Rangers? (have to play Josh in CF though, which they don’t like)
Yankees (if Gardner is done for the year)
That’s really it unless you want to throw-in the Reds, As, or Rays who could “use” another OFer, but really aren’t in great position for someone like Choo.
Giants are interesting as they are the rumored team after Perez too. Perhaps Choo+Perez for Gregor Blanco (patch Choo’s hole) + top-level prospects
Sell our most valuable asset- Perez. Get a bat and maybe a couple of prospects in return?
No point in having a solid closer when you can’t use him very often!
Then trade Choo as well- we are done this year and let’s get some value before he leaves.
This will fill in some of the 2&3A gaps and get a bat.
Hafner and Sizemore come off the payroll next year. Combined, that money can get a solid player.
Then let the closer battle begin!
ok, Gardner is done the year but cross them off (they got Ichiro)
This is why I don’t follow baseball. The two to three year window that small market teams have is closing, and this time around, the Indians don’t even have talent to unload for prospects. Rebuilding after a couple playoff runs is painful. Rebuilding after being merely mediocre burns, especially when you know it will be punctuated by Antonetti’s occasional sanctimonious musings on attendance and what the mediocre players he built the team around ought to be doing better.
What players other than Fielder? First year FA’s are often rough but the Tigers are in first and rising so you can’t say that was money wasted.
But you can certainly lay that at Antonetti’s feet – he built the team. Most fans aren’t surprised that a lot of the pieces of this team are struggling because most fans realize that this team is made up of a lot of average-at-best players.
Why is Tomlin struggling? He’s a back-end of the rotation guy. We knew Hafner was awful. We knew Hannahan and Kotchman weren’t solid major league hitters. We knew LF was awful. We knew we had too many lefties. We knew Jimenez was inconsistent.
The only real surprise, by my eyes, are the Santana struggles and Masterson’s woes. Other than that, we got the team Antonetti put together….which isn’t a very good major league team. Antonetti can say that the players need to play better all he wants – but a lot of them are playing to the best of their abilities, which is an indictment of his approach – not theirs.