May 21, 2013

Examining The Tribe Free Agent & Trade Offseason Misses

July 31, 2012 by 74 Comments

As the MLB trade deadline approaches today at 4 PM, the Cleveland Indians sit in a strange place. They won’t be buying, could be selling, but most likely will be standing pat. They have been put in this position by their failures to add an impact guy or two this past offseason, on top of some underwhelming seasons from a few of their key guys.

During the winter, the Indians searched high and low for bats. They shot for the moon and the looked at the bottom of the barrel. In the end, the names bandied about never came to fruition and the Tribe ended up with Casey Kotchman for $3 million to play first base while counting on a healthy Grady Sizemore to come back strong for one more year in the sun.

Ah, the best laid plans of Chris Antonetti.

We all know what happened. Kotchman has been as advertised as an absolute wizard with the glove, but his bat has left something to be desired. He was coming off of his best year with the bat (.306/.378/.800) and the Indians hoped for a repeat. The thing of it is, if left field and third base weren’t such a mess and Travis Hafner and Carlos Santana had played up to their potential this season, nobody would care about Kotchman’s lack of offense.

Then again, what Kotchman has given us (.226/.290/.648/10 HR/38 RBIs) are Hall of fame numbers compared to what Sizemore has done. Grady has more surgeries (one) than at-bats (zero).  Really, I can’t get started again on my feelings about the front office’s decision to put all of their faith into Sizemore. It was a move that completely backfired and set their season back in countless ways.

While they were searching for that right-handed, middle of the order big bat, they either passed on or were passed over by a number of players who would have looked good in Wahoo Red, White, and Blue. Lets take a look at how those players are doing in their new homes. (stats are as yesterday afternoon)

Josh Willingham – Minnesota Twins – three years, $21 million – .273/.384/.955/27 HR/79 RBIs/352 ABs

Why not get the most depressing figure out of the way right off the bat! Like with me rehashing the Sizemore mistake for the 250th time, do I really need to get into this again? After watching Willingham destroy the Indians in person this weekend, I literally became sick to my stomach at what could have been. If I was this worked up about it, I can’t imagine what must have been going through the head of Antonetti.

The Indians stubbornly wouldn’t give into Willingham’s demand of a three-year deal. The Twins were more than happy to do so at a club friendly $7 million per year. He was coming off a 28 HR/98 RBI season in a pitcher park in Oakland. The 33-year old hits right-handed, plays left field, and has admitted that had the Indians given that third year, he’d be in Cleveland right now.

Passing on Willingham literally has changed the fortunes of the entire season for the Tribe, not to mention the fact that they are now searching for someone EXACTLY LIKE HIM.

Carlos Beltran – St. Louis Cardinals – two years, $26 million – .282/.358/.883/23 HR/73 RBIs/351 ABs

In the case of Beltran, you cannot fault the Indians one bit. Their interest in the 35-year old outfielder came almost out of nowhere, but it was sincere. It was leaked on December 22nd that that the Indians were amongst the finalist for the All Star’s services. Beltran fit the criteria for what the Indians were looking for. He is a switch hitter with power, who can play either of the corner outfield positions as well as center field in a pinch.

Unfortunately the Indians were the bridesmaid to the Cardinals. Their reported two-year, $24 million deal was not good enough for Beltran, who desired to stay in the National League and play for the defending World Series Champs. Naturally, Beltran has been a complete stud in St. Louis with power to boot. Like Willingham, he would have completely changed the dynamic of the Indians offense.

Carlos Pena – Tampa Bay Rays – one year, $7.5 million – .194/.323/.674/14 HR/41 HR/361 ABs

Before the Indians settled on Kotchman, they made an offer to Pena, a power hitting, left-handed bat who plays first base at a gold glove level. He spent 2011 in Chicago on a one-year, $10 million deal with the Cubs. The 34-year old has always had a ton of power, but also has been strikeout machine for years. He played four years in Tampa Bay prior to the 2011 season and never hit less than 28 home runs. He peaked with 46 in 2007.

Apparently, his familiarity with the Rays won out of over money. The Indians made an offer of one year and $8 million to Pena, hoping he could provide the middle of the order power they sorely lacked. Instead, he took a little less money (and no state income tax) to return to Florida. When you see the statistics above, it seems as if the Indians may have dodged a bullet passing on him for the price. Kotchman for $3 million has been a better plan.

Carlos Lee – Houston Astros/Miami Marlins – one year remaining at $18 million – .284/.348/.744/6 HR/41 RBIs/328 ABs

While not a free agent this winter, Lee was a $18 million noose around the rebuilding Astros neck. Reportedly, Houston was willing to essentially give him away while eating half of the salary owed to him in the final year of his deal. Lee has been a career left fielder who switched to first base in 2011. He was coming off his worst power season since his rookie year of 1999 (18 HR/94 RBIs), but the hope was that he’d have one more good year in the sun at age 36.

The Indians approached the Astros at a point, but nothing ever became serious. Lee started the season hot and the Astros decided to parlay that into a trade. The Indians looked at him, but again decided to pass and instead he ended up with Miami. Now with Miami falling way out of the race, reports are that the Marlins are “begging anyone”  to take Lee’s salary off their books.

Jason Kubel – Arizona Diamondbacks – two years, $15 million – .291/.364/.931/22 HR/72 RBIs/385 ABs

Back in November, the Indians showed early interest in Kubel, the former Minnesota Twin. He was a Tribe killer during his time in Minnesota and caught the brass’s eye. At the time, I couldn’t understand why the Indians wanted another left-handed hitting corner outfielder, especially with Sizemore signed. He played in just 99 games in 2011 because of injury, but the Indians liked his familiarity of the AL Central.

Back in November, I wrote the following:

While Kubel is a “nice” player, do the Indians really want to give him a three- year deal between $20-$25 million, which he could command? It would still leave them as an extremely left-handed loaded lineup, as they were most of last year.

My first thought when hearing about the Tribe’s interest in Kubel, I had to scratch my head for one simple reason – he is left-handed. Isn’t this offseason a quest for a right-handed power stick?

Now we fast forward to July and Kubel looks like a steal for the Diamondbacks. He has been terrific with the stick and a stabilizing force in the middle of the Arizona lineup.

Cody Ross – Boston Red Sox – one year, $3 million – .260/.331/.854/16 HR/50 RBIs/258 ABs

Ross was a World Series hero with the San Francisco Giants back in 2010 after coming over as an August waiver claim from the Marlins who were looking to shed salary. He struggled in 2011 with the Giants and headed into free agency looking for work. Ross has never been a star player, more of a fourth outfielder type, but nobody will forget just how good he was during that 2010 playoff run. At the end of January, the Indians were still in search of a right-handed bat and corner outfield type.

Ross’s name was on their radar screen, but they had set their sights a bit higher. Maybe they shouldn’t have. Maybe they should have added Ross as the fall back option to Sizemore. Instead of making the move, the Indians watched as the Red Sox gave him $3 million and playing time in left field as Carl Crawford wouldn’t be back until around the All Star break.

Ross went out and played perhaps the best baseball of his career before spending a month on the DL with a broken foot. After his return, he had a nice stretch that included a 5-9 tear with three homers and nine RBIs in two wins over the White Sox. Ross would have been more of the Indians speed; not a crazy impact guy, but a solid veteran who could have been a decent short term fill in. They most likely figured they have that in a known quantity to them in Duncan, so they passed on Ross.

Related Posts

Zemanta
Filed Under: Indians Tagged With: , , , , , ,
← Older Comments
  • The_Real_Shamrock

    I know Hafner is your boy but c’mon man his days need to be done almost as much as Daniel Gibson with the Cavaliers. Okay maybe not quite that much but it’s close. As for which hitters I’m lazy didn’t you read and your my number man so give me a list of candidates and I’ll pick one. ;-)

  • mgbode

    he’s still one of our top hitters. and we can likely get him on a 1 or 2 year deal for $5mil/year. That is cheap for what he provides.

    #1 ISO
    #2 SLG
    #2 OPS & OPS+
    #3 BB/K
    #4 OBP

    Choo is definitely better. You can make a case for Hafner being the 2nd best hitter though (or argue for Asdrubal, Brantley, Santana, or Kipnis – they all are bunched together).

    Noone mentions wanting to dump any of those guys.

    (biggest detraction on him is that he has struggled with RISP this year, however he was dominant with RISP in 2011. it’s an artificial statistic that tends to even out over time)

    But, I keep seeing people want to dump Hafner and we should know that would mean signing another Kotchman as a replacement. I just don’t see how that actually helps the team.

    #SavePronk

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    The future looks so bright I gotta wear shades! For others it might be to cover their tears or better yet identities.

  • mgbode

    there’s definitely some risk, but given how pitchers get paid in MLB today, i’d be willing to do it to get him locked up now. worst case, he becomes our new Westbrook deal.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Well based on what the Indians haven’t done and the fact that attendance will drop even less I don’t know if it makes sense to sign a part-time player like Hafner for even as little as $5M for a year. That $5M figurehas a bad connotation given the Sizemore resigning but really people have an issue with Hafner because he’s always hurt. A one year deal is really what 3-4 months actual playing time?

    I was going to post my radical trade deadline scenario of trading Choo, Santana, Lowe, Hannahan, Kotchman, Damon and possibly Masterson but frankly it just wasn’t worth it. In all practacality unless the Indians decide to do something dramatic this offseason and really reshape this organization it’ll just be more of the same a year from now. Actually it could be worse which is scary. The pattern they are stuck in just isn’t going to work especially if they can’t begin to assess talent better both in drafting and trades.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    I have no problem with risk however my risk management department just told me that the Indians are beyond their risk allowance threshold and simply just cannot afford any more!

    On a personal note I’ve never been a Masterson proponent like I said he’s really a two pitch pitcher, sinker slider, and that won’t cut it as a SP, IMO. He has a fastball but doesn’t use it nearly enough and when he does more times then not it’s flat. Not good, IMO. For me I think he’s a bullpen guy myself always did it just happens he’s on a team with virtually no SP hence he’s a SP.

  • Steve

    I have never begged for your replies. I have tried to have just a slightly more esoteric conversation that “well this sucks”.

    If you simply were not familiar with the statistics in question, that’s one thing. But you refuse to spend even 5 minutes trying to get a rudimentary understanding, and then flaunt how much you don’t want to know, and even throw a jab at the use of statistics (this is not a one time thing for you). Fine, sorry that I called you lazy, I’ll just compare you to a Luddite from now on. Better?

  • Steve

    “One playoff appearance in a decade, a mediocre team on the field” – that’s a small market in today’s MLB, it sucks, I know.

    “terrible attendance, a completely alienated fanbase” – this goes along with the communication skills. How do you think they can communicate with the fans that will go over well? No matter what they say, the fans whine, even when things go right or get what they originally wanted. When Sabathia, Hafner and Westbrook were up against it, people said they wouldn’t sign any, and if they got two, that would be fantastic. Well, they did. Despite the fact that Sabathia never had interest in signing here, the fans wanted him. Why? Because they didn’t have him. The fans in this town hold this team to an unbelievable standard – whatever you did is not good enough.

    I’m not giving the front office/ownership a pass on what they can control. Scouting amateurs has been mediocre, and they’ve had a serious problem managing injuries. They are a fairly mediocre management team. I’d put them slightly above average, but would be more than willing to accept arguments for slightly below. But when the fanbase screams that we are one of the worst organizations, and the only thing to do is completely clean house, their cries fall should fall on deaf ears. Instead Chuck Booms gets them even more riled up. It’s just sad.

  • Petefranklin

    2007 attendance was utterly pathetic, that was a very exciting team that just didn’t draw, no excuses for the fans there.

  • mgbode

    i’ve always had a soft spot for the worm-killers. definitely think he’s a SP, though he should be a SP3 not the staff ‘ace’

  • Petefranklin

    And they wasted a magical year for the pen hoping for all the pieces to play above their combined norm.

  • mgbode

    i’m open to ideas, but i don’t see us getting a better hitter for the $$$. I can live without Cunningham on the team next year for that “roster” spot, how about you?

  • Petefranklin

    #5 15 DL #6 30 DL

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    we’re batting .219 vs LHP this year.
    our top non-switch right-handed bat at the deadline last year was duncan. this is still the case.
    –
    masterson, carmona, tomlin, carrasco, mcallister, pomerantz, white, lopez. (off the top of my head. throw in barnes, talbot, huff if you want.)
    seven decent pitchers/prospects there; hard to believe four of them wouldnt turn into something productive.

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    it _was_ a strength in terms of the depth of prospects and young major league players: masterson, carmona, tomlin, carrasco, mcallister, pomerantz, white, lopez. ..barnes, talbot, huff. there’s a decent rotation in there somewhere.

    meanwhile there was a clear and obvious need for RH bats. and that continues today with the .219 batting avg vs LHP.

  • mgbode

    and yet:

    Masterson – hasn’t been able to replicate last year
    Carmona – terrible last year, hasn’t pitched in 2012 yet.
    Carrasco hurt himself a week later and is missing 2012.
    Tomlin got figured out and hasn’t been able to adjust.
    Pomeranz got rushed to MLB and has struggled mightily.
    White’s peripherals caught up to his standard stats.
    Barnes/Talbot/Huff – not in MLB.

    Ugh. Ok, let’s hope Masterson rebounds in ’13, Carrasco comes back strong, Roberto is a new man (haha), McAllister continues to pitch well, and Ubaldo gets back to his career average stats.

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    not for nothing — we’re 11th in errors made this year. last year we were 4th.

    again.. just sayin: attempting to upgrade SP last year was peculiar because i didn’t find it to be in need of such a dramatic upgrade.

    that we appear to have been fleeced is secondary. yet one has to wonder what pomerantz/white would have brought in trade for a RH bat.

  • mgbode

    possibly Hunter Pence.

    he was the best RH bat traded at the deadline last year (between the buddy-buddy FO’s of Houston/Philly). Houston did get Cosart and Singleton (Phillies 2 best prospects) and 2 other prospects, so it’s possible that Pomeranz + White would not have been enough (depends what they thought of White).

  • mgbode

    the numbers were team ranks above. so, your joke sort of fails.

  • clevefan4life

    Why stop at 2003? Try looking at the root of the problem, which is the Dolan’s purchase of the team in 2000.
    2000 attendance – 42,670 – exit Manny Ramirez
    2001 attendance – 39,203 – exit Robbie & Lofton
    2002 attendance – 32,307 – exit Jim Thome
    2003 attendance – 21,358

    From ’95 to ’01, the lowest attendance was 35,095, which was 1995, which outdrew 25 MLB teams. The average attendance in ’95 ws 22,252 throughout the majors. Cleveland fans showed up when a good product was put on the field and done so consistently, not just a flash in the pan. The current organization and ownership advertise on “what if?” which tries to capitalize on the past regime’s success because they have no success of their own to hang their hat on. What, 2007? Great, so we have 1 season in 10 years to get excited about, but people want to rip the fans? Give me a break.

    Furthermore, he average attendance in 2007 throughout MLB was 32,694 compared to 22,252 in ’95. If you notice, the average attendance across major league baseball has increased dramatically, whereas Cleveland’s average attendance is about average for the last 20 years. So are the fans really not showing up or are people foolish for thinking that Cleveland will sell out every game even when the ownership puts a bad product on the field.

    So again, get back to the root of the problem. The Dolan’s paid too much for this team and cut payroll and promised to rebuild. They tried to rebuild on the cheap and now they’re paying for it with “average” attendance numbers. Add to it a shrinking city, poor economy and a game that costs a family of 4 about $175-$200 for tickets, parking and food and it’s not rocket science why more people don’t show up.

    This ownership and front office has stumbled every step of the way from day one and have continued to with poor trades, poor drafts and signing NO free agents not currently on the roster. The people that run this team simply don’t know baseball and the fans know it. Put a consistent winner on the field and you have 455. This current group will never spend, draft or sign and therefore they will never see sellouts. Can you really blame fans who know going in that this team really has no chance?

  • clevefan4life

    One other thing to note is the Fan Cost Index. The Indians saw a jump in attendance from 2010 to 2011 and the ownership rewarded fans how? They increased prices by 10.4% in 2012. The 3rd highest increase in Major League baseball.

    In 1995 the FCI shows the cost to go to a game for a family of 4 was $99.75. It’s up to $173.66. The current FCI numbers are based on parking at $12, beer at $5 and hot dog at $4.25. I don’t know where they came up with those numbers, but I was at the park two weeks ago and parking was $25, beer $9.50 and hot dog $8.50 so I’m guess the FCI is low.

    The other change was increasing ticket prices for games/teams that had a bigger draw like the Tigers, Yankees and Red Sox. The message that this ownership is sending is the more people show up, the more we’re going to charge you. The less you show up, the lower the costs will be.That not only applies year to year, but now apparently for specific games. Again, why is anyone questioning that attendance is low. This ownership and front office makes errors in judgment in every single aspect of running this team.

  • mgbode

    the Indians were among the first to use a sliding scale ticket price system. it is a good point to wonder whether this actually hurts perception or is a good thing. april, weekday, and lesser opponents cost less to attend. but, that means perception of the other games is that they are being gauged. I have wondered if this is an overall net gain for the team or not.

  • mgbode

    you might want to consider a few other factors that differentiated between the 90s and the early 00s. there is a reason that Jacobs sold the team.

    also, the team may have made 1 playoff appearance in the last 10 years, but that completely discounts the years where the team was competitive for the majority of the year and fell just short of the playoffs (2011, 2005) or had a wildly talented team that just fell short of expecations due to injury/inconsistency that year (2006, 2008, 2009).

    we’ve had some good years. we’ve had some bad years. but, there’s alot more good than bad yet we underdraw similar cities with worse teams.

  • clevefan4life

    What’s a similar city that outdraws Cleveland? GIve me more than 2012.

    1 Playoff appearance in a decade is all fans need to know. “Almost” is what this ownership is built on. They almost spend, almost know what they’re doing, almost put a winner on the field, which is why fans almost go to the games.

    The bottom line is that bridges were so burned that fans need consistent winning to open up their pocket books. They also don’t want to feel ripped off at the park, which I don’t know anywhere on the planet that an 8.50 hot dog or 9.50 beer makes sense.

    I’m a fan that once went to 10-15 games per year and I’m down to 1-2. I have other parts of my family that are the same way. We aren’t bandwagon jumpers as we had season tickets in the 80′s and early 90′s before the Indians were good. I am exactly the fan that this ownership has rubbed the wrong way and it sucks because I love baseball, love the Indians and absolutely hate how this organization is run.

    Too many people are telling the fans they are wrong instead of trying to fix the problem.

← Older Comments