May 21, 2013

Trading Choo: The Pros and The Cons

July 30, 2012 by 23 Comments

After a lost weekend in Minnesota, the Indians brass has to know that reality has set it. It is time to reel it back in and regroup. This season is all but lost and the future must be attended to. They have little to no organizational depth in AA and AAA in terms of high impact players. GM Chris Antonetti has perhaps the biggest trade chip on the market in terms of a hot bat in the form of outfielder Shin-Soo Choo.

Now before you all start your “I will never show up to another game if they trade away a fan favorite in his prime” bit, it is important to remember what the Indians are. They are a team that can never afford to keep any of their own star free agents once they hit the market for the first time. Its sad, but its true. Its not like this should be news to any of you. CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Victor Martinez were the most recent cases that we are all familiar with. Choo will soon be added to that list.

The real question is when is the best time to trade Choo? Do they think they are better off with him for one more year, hope they can contend in 2013, and then decided what to do with him at this point next year?

There are pros and cons for both sides of sending Choo packing in the next 24 hours.

The pros 

There are more teams that are buyers out there then ever before thanks to the second wild card. It is clearly a sellers market. The amount of high quality bats available is a very shallow pool. One of the guys who many teams targeted, Carlos Quentin, just re-upped with the San Diego Padres on a three-year deal, taking him off the market. The Red Sox already dealt Kevin Youkilis to the White Sox. The guy who continued to get the most attention from scouts is San Diego’s Chase Headley, and he isn’t nearly the player Choo is.

With a year and two months left on his deal, Choo’s stock may never be higher. He isn’t just a rental player. Whoever gets him could watch him explode during his free agent walk season of 2013 and reap the benefits.

A team like the Pirates, desperate to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 1991 may feel as though this is their “all in” moment and be willing to overpay (Ubaldo trade ring a bell?), considering they have had a revolving door at the leadoff spot all season and have been searching high and low for a big bat to pair with All Star stud center fielder Andrew McCutchen. If the Indians could get two of their top prospects, say AAA OF Starling Marte and their 2011 first round pick SP Gerrit Cole, you’d have to take it.

The Pirates are just one of several teams that would love Choo. Who wouldn’t love a .291/.378/.862 hitting cannon-armed right fielder?

And let us be honest. We all know that Choo is never going to re-sign long term with the Indians. His agent is Scott Boras, best known as the guy who gets his clients the most possible money, no matter where the destination may take the player. If Choo keeps his career stats on this same path, the big market suitors will be lining up for him which makes him too rich for the Tribe’s blood.

Then there are the quotes from Choo, courtesy of  Jordan Bastian of Indians.com:

“The more important thing is I want to win. I want to make the playoffs.”

“In the first two months, I was slumping and not playing very good,” Choo said. “I was thinking about so many other things outside of baseball and the ballpark. I worried about too many things, and it didn’t work. After that, I just focused on being healthy, playing every day and my numbers will come.”

“Everybody says the same thing, that they hate to lose,” Choo said. “But I really, really hate to lose. I want to win. Win. The last couple years, it’s been the same situation. We play good, are in first place and then go down at the same time.

Choo may be trying to say the right things, but it is obvious that he has at least one foot out the door and wouldn’t mind speeding up that process.

 

The Cons

While its a good thing for possible Choo suitors that he has a year and a half left on his deal, its also a positive for the Indians today. Should they choose to hang onto him, the Tribe is clearly a better team in 2013, a year that they targeted as potentially their best chance to win the AL Central. Your core group of Choo, Michael Brantley, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall, Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Vinnie Pestano, and Chris Perez should all be back together.You will have the ultimate albatross of a contract – Travis Hafner’s $14 million – off the books, along with $5 milion to Derek Lowe, $5 million of the burnt money that was paid to Grady Sizemore, and the $5 million combined given to Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon.

That is $29 million that will go away in 2013. Not a single one of those players is even close to be irreplaceable. The Indians could decide to hold and reload for next season.

In addition, trading Choo right now obviously signals a waving of the white flag for this season and in the eyes of many, next season as well. You think the attendance, currently last in the majors, looks bad now? Imagine what Progressive Field could look like in September and even early next season (they never draw well in April regardless) if another star is traded away in his prime.

———–

Not all Indians fans are wired the same way. I will support this team and go to games no matter what, but I realize not all of you share the passion I do. I still cannot decide if holding onto Choo now, waiting until the offseason, or seeing where they are at the deadline in 2013 is the best time to move him. But to me, you’ve got to sell him high at some point. That is the way it goes here in Cleveland. I know it won’t be a popular move, but it is what will be best for the organization long term.

The key for the Indians will be to actually HIT on a trade of Choo. Matt LaPorta being a giant bust was a major setback for the organization, still searching for a right-handed power bat for the middle of their order (Josh Willingham anyone?). LaPorta was acquired back in July of 2008, so we are going on four years now. The Lee trade brought a backup catcher (Lou Marson), a utility infielder who is stuck in AAA (Jason Donald), a 19-year old pitcher with shoulder issues (Jason Knapp), and a young starting pitcher who missed this entire season after needing Tommy John surgery (Carlos Carrasco).

Another miss like the two I mentioned above could be detrimental to the franchise.

(AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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  • BenRM

    Pro: Chuck Booms will have an aneurysm.

  • Harv 21

    whoa, was going to comment but would first appreciate some clarification, TD: you’re saying we should have offered Willingham a third year and signed him?

  • Andrew

    “This season is all but lost and the future must be attended to.”

    lol 5.5 games

  • Clevefan4life

    The reason we can’t afford to keep any of our own free agents is because we have one of the cheapest owners in baseball. Fans not showing up is not the cause, it is the effect.

    I still follow the Tribe like I have for the past 32 years, but I do not go to as many games. I’m down to 1-2 from about 10-12. There are two reasons:
    1) This ownership has spent a decade selling fans on the hope of the future and saying they will spend money when the time was right. Remember that excuse?? That was 2003/2004 friends. The only time they really opened up the checkbook was to Hafner and that’s been a terrible misfortune as he’s never been the same since taking a pitch to the head.

    2) $8.50 hot dogs. $9.50 beers. $4 bottled water. Now with the casino, $25 parking. Two of us went down to the park a few weeks ago and it ran us north of $125 when you consider tickets(which weren’t great), food, drink and parking. I make a decent living, but there’s a point in time where enough is enough.

    This ownership needs to sell the team and wipe the front office clean. We have had bad trades, bad signing and a lack of spending for the last decade, which accounts for the significant drop in attendance. It’s time for us to not only move on from Choo, but move on from the Dolans. I only want to move on from Choo because we clearly need to rebuild again and I want to see him with a contender.

    Dolans need to go.

  • nj0

    Thing is, even when we get all that money off the books, who are we going to sign?

    Or rather, has this team ever shown a desire and ability to bring in quality FAs? I’d say no.

    Even if we have the payroll in 2013, I still see this club being shy about bringing in a guy like Willingham, the main issue being that most FA signings include an extra year or two where the player is entering a gray area when it comes to value.

  • Garry_Owen

    So, to sum up:
    Pro: He’s the best player we have.
    Con: He’s the best player we have.

  • Tron

    It’s not so much the 5.5 games as much as it is the -66 run differential. The fact that we’re “close” only points to the inferior competition that is the central. In all of MLB there are only 4 teams to have given up over 500 runs, excluding the Tribe 2 of the other 3 are in dead last place, and the other is Minny. Who you know, just kicked our @$$. 5.5 is foolds gold, this team just doesn’t have what it takes to compete with the other clubs that will be making the post season this year.

  • http://www.winningfantasyfootball.com/ Phil

    Yes, and I would agree with TD on that one. 27 HR’s when our best is Choo with 12. I’d say that’s worth 7-10 mill per season for 3 years. That last year might not be great, but it would be better than what we are getting for the 13 mill Travis Hafner.

  • JRS19

    Seems to me that the FO lacks a clear vision for this team. I think they want to be “all in”, but with the Ubaldo trade backfiring, they are definitely a bit gun shy at the proposition of moving forward with either a rebuild/retool or adding further payroll. The team’s inconsistency has put them in this bind, but the FO has never really committed to helping, i.e. the LF/1B mess. Adding guys like Kotchman, Damon, Lowe, Duncan, Lopez, Hannahan, Cunningham, not to mention past gems like O-Cab, Everett, Buck, and Kearns has led to this mediocrity. There’s not a lot of foresight here and somebody at the top needs to come up with a better plan.

  • toph

    It’s 5.5 games only because we started fast, got lucky and no one in the Central has played lights out for an extended period of time. This team isn’t a contender. Not saying we CANT make the post season, but we won’t.

  • mgbode

    I see we’re having some hindsight today. Perhaps we could mix in a dash of perspective to better the quality?

    Willingham is now a 158 OPS+ hitting monster.

    Coming into this year, Willingham was a bit of an injury prone 33yo who had never hit better than 129 OPS+ and had never advanced past his rookie year stats in 2006 (and was thought to be in line to start regressing)

    would he have been better even at his career norms than anything we have put in LF this year? no doubt. but, knowing how he has torn things up this year seem to be making people believe the decision to sign him to a 3yr deal should have been a slam dunk. it wasn’t.

  • TD

    Yes…its hindsight….but they put their eggs in the basket of Sizemore and backed him up with Duncan and a bunch of castoffs, which then turned into Damon.

  • TD

    3 years and $21 million is very club friendly. Not to mention he was coming off of a year where he hit 28 homers and drove in 96 in the worst hitters park in the league (Oakland). He hits righty and has power and can play LF. Its not like they were locking him in for 5 years at $10 million a year. Yes its hindsight, but he is absolutely RAKING this year

  • Harv 21

    I was just teasing about your non-stop Grady Not Willingham obsession, TD. The dryness of my attempted written humor can get lost without the appropriate verbal inflection.

  • http://twitter.com/GreatestHurley Jason Hurley

    “That is $29 million that will go away in 2013.”
    I think that’s my biggest fear as a Tribe fan – that the cash will come off the table not to be spent again on payroll.

  • jim

    Sadly, a guy who has a career OPS+ of 129, and a career OPS of .849 is well worth $7 million a year. I get the reluctance to offer an extra year, but when the Indians claimed to be “all in” after the Ubaldo trade, they should have addressed their other glaring issues; namely a right-handed bat who played either LF or 1st base. Willingham is/was that guy. Keep in mind as well that the team has over $25 million coming off the books next season. The $7 million could have easily been absorbed.

  • markn95

    A lot of fans forget that Hafner won’t just “come off the books” after this season. The Indians have to pay $2 million to buy out his option. I have no doubt they will do that because the alternative is paying him $16M+ but the way this team counts every penny, that $2 mil could really come back to bite us.

  • TeddyRoos

    Does anyone really think, that after ridding themselves of Hafners contract, the Dolans will rush to spend money this off season. Let me reintroduce you a Dolan, Antonetti offseason. Another Derek Lowe, Shelley Duncan and Jose Lopez mixed in with a over paid contract for another David Dillucci. Antonetti didn’t trade for Jiminez last year. They traded for his cheap contract sealed for 2 1/2 years. That’s the first priority for Dolan. When will they deal Choo? When the Dolans feel they can no longer hold up this playoff farce and sell it to the fans.

  • mgbode

    fair enough as they struck out on Cespedes and others to fill the LF void as well.

    but, he had a career high OPS+ of 129 last offseason, not a career average.

  • mgbode

    he actually hit much better in Oakland than on the road.

  • Steve

    One, which has been proven time and time again – the Indians have one of the cheapest tickets in MLB, and give you the opportunity to bring food/drinks into the stadium. And you can park for $5 at the PNC Building, or take the rapid. There are plenty of easily available alternatives to save money.

    This town (not just team) has always had problems in the FA market. I’m not sure why now you suddenly expect the Indians to be able to spend with the Yankees, especially considering how much TV contracts have changed the game.

  • Steve

    Desire? Yes. They were right there on Beltran and offered $20 mill/year to Sabathia and Lee. Ability is a different story. No one from out of town wants to come to Cleveland, and the bigger markets will always be able to outspend us.

  • Steve

    I’m sorry, but this is just bad analysis. One, just adding a 3rd year is far from a guarantee that Willingham signs here. And secondly, they made the offers to Willingham and Beltran, and showed interest in Kubel after they signed Sizemore. They didn’t choose to sign Sizemore instead. They wanted another OF as well.