While We’re Waiting… The Ones That Got Away, Lars Anderson and Free Agent Spending
August 2, 2012Report: Browns Sale is Complete, Excess of $1 Billion
August 2, 2012I’m covering this one while TD is out of town, which means we’re doing this live-blog style. But let’s be honest: you don’t want a play-by-play account of this team right now any more than I feel like writing one for you. So instead we’re doing a stream-of-consciousness recap. I’ll occasionally touch on the game, but mostly, I’ll be giving you random asides regarding the team, their situation, and anything else I feel like discussing. (Let’s pretend this is a new thing and not the same thing I always do. OK?)
8:03 PM – So it’s come to this: I’m live-blogging a game who’s most significant footnote will likely involve a man named “Vinnie Rottino”—a game being watched by literally tens of households across the Northeast Ohio corridor. That’s right Tribe fans: we’re live blogging a midweek Royals-Indians game with absolutely nothing on line.
Times like these, I’m left wondering about the decisions I’ve made that have led me to this unfortunate state of affairs.
You win, world. You win.
8:26 PM – After the Tribe goes down quietly in the first, the Royals take the early lead on Zach McAllister with a walk, a hit, a stolen base, and a Santana throwing error. Just like that, it’s 2-0 Royals.
Let me imagine the subsequent dugout conversation between Acta and his Merry Men:
“Let’s treat this as a teachable moment. What did you guys do wrong that inning, do you think?”
“All of the things. We did all of the things wrong.”
Like Derek Lowe said before the game, these aren’t just “bad breaks” or “bad luck”. This is a bad baseball team. (OK, he didn’t say that exactly. But that was his point.)
And that leads me to the point that I’ve been trying to make since the deadline came and went. I had no major problems with the team not doing anything at the trading deadline, mostly because I find this team to be, well, pretty bad. For the record, the Indians entered tonight’s game with the second worst run differential in the American League. One piece wouldn’t have helped. Two wouldn’t have either, unless we’re talking about a lockdown ace pitcher AND someone like Miguel Cabrera. Those pieces weren’t available, and even if they were they wouldn’t have been available in what I call the Twitter special: “You think we could Miggy and Prince for LaPorta, Tomlin, Huff and Phelps? We should do that!! Stupid Dolans.”
No. My problem is that the team is no good. During the rebuild years I was largely ok with that: you give away years and players to retool or rebuild or reload or whatever. But during the so-called “contention window” that the front office has been dangling in front of us since July of 2008? Well, it stinks to be just as bad as ever. Sure, this team has some exciting players, but it’s not particularly close to resembling even an average team. Our cleanup hitter is Michael Brantley. Our best pitcher’s ERA is worse than the league average. Our first baseman is Casey Kotchman. And on it goes.
My question, I suppose, is whether there is any endgame here? Of course the problem is structurally endemic to the MLB system, but having established that fact, what do we do with it? Cry? Start twitter wars? Die on the vine? I honestly don’t know the answer to these questions, but I know that I’m asking them. I also imagine some of you prophets out there will be enlightening me in the comments.
By the way, it’s now 8:49 PM, and the Royals are winning 4-0. Still doing all of the things wrong.
9:04 PM – The second inning just ended (still 4-0 Royals), which means we’re on pace for a game that will last just shy of four and half hours. And here I sit, without my self-immolation kit.
So back to the endgame issue I was discussing before. I don’t advocate firing people—it’s just not something I’m comfortable doing. On top of the general principle of the thing, I tend to think that Chris Antonetti and Mark Shapiro have fairly difficult jobs, partly because of the inherent structural problems with MLB discussed above and partly because of their ownership group and partly because they’re carrying the weight of an angry fanbase with them everywhere they go that is just never going to give them an inch of slack or forgive them for trading away its heroes. I do not envy these guys in the front office one bit.
On the other hand, there is the simple fact that this team is failing to meet the expectations that Antonetti and Shapiro themselves placed on it during the Spring: namely, to compete for a division championship. Derek Lowe and Ubaldo Jimenez and Kevin Slowey and Grady Sizemore and Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon. These were the final pieces of their contention push—the paraph on their masterpiece. Those players cost us nearly $20 million this season—that’s real money that should be buying real players. Instead, this group of players has contributed less than a half a win over replacement so far this year. Are there no consequences for this?
I just don’t know. That’s not me being coy. I understand that it’s impossible not to make mistakes; these are difficult decisions, etc. The Yankees probably make just as many mistakes if not more, we just never see them because they cut the player, pay his salary, and move on. My point is not that these guys suck at their jobs. At least that’s not the point I was hoping to make.
Rather, what I keep coming back to is whether the Antonetti-Shapiro-Dolan triumvirate hasn’t poisoned the well in this town beyond any hope of repair. Like I wrote before, I don’t see this group being forgiven, either for what they’ve done or for what they represent. Even if they improbably win the World Series next season on the backs of Santana and Brantley and Kipnis and Masterson and Carrasco and Choo and Jimenez, the day after the parade they’ll still be castigated for doing it on the cheap. It’ll be called a fluke. Because it will be. After all, that’s what we call it when an underdog wins.
Now I’m just rambling. But I’m not done thinking about this endgame thing. It seems important.
9:26 PM – Holy moly. The Indians have scored on a Carlos Santana home run that I missed because I was rambling. It’s now 4-1, heading to the top of the fifth inning. They’re no longer doing all of the things wrong. So there’s that…
9:40 PM – 5-1 Royals now, end of the fifth. No, I don’t want to talk about it.
But since you asked and since we’re on the topic of endgames, let’s entertain briefly an idea that I heard on the radio this afternoon. There was some talk (believe it or not!) that Mark Shapiro and Chris Antonetti should be fired after this season. The idea was that such a move could solve this team’s on-field malaise or, failing that, it would at least make us all feel better, albeit in a punitive, death penalty sort of way.
I’ve written in the past that I think Antonetti and Shapiro are smart guys who are assets to this team. I still think that, for whatever it’s worth. It’s easy to point out their misses, but I can’t think of many other front offices that did more under similar financial constraints over the last 10 to 15 years. I bring this up all the time, but you do realize that Kansas City and Pittsburgh laugh at our whiny ways, right? Five years ago we won more games than any team in baseball. Those two teams have had one winning season between them in their last 36 combined seasons. Those fans see us as the rich whiny kid who doesn’t like the rims on his new BMW.
In other words, it’s completely possible that we fire our front office and replace it with people who are worse. Sure, the move would be symbolic and cathartic and Lerner-esque and maybe it would even sell some tickets. But I’d still wager the team is likely better with those guys than without them.
And yes, I say that after outlining the $20 million they blew this season above. This is a live-blog: referential integrity is not required. Take it up with Magritte.
10:05 PM – McAllister is done. Pestano on in relief.
McAllister’s line is sort of what we would’ve expected from him before he got our hopes up earlier this year: 6 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 3K, 2 BB. The definition of mediocre.
But we got him for two months of Austin Kearns. So we’ll take it.
10:12 PM – I enjoyed this banter, so it’s making the recap:
Matt Underwood: “Wow, if it’s this hot in Kansas City, how hot must it be in Arlington for that Rangers’ game?”
Rick Manning: [matter-of-factly and without pause] “Probably 108.”
Probably.
Anyway, it’s 5-1 Royals, heading to the eighth inning.
10:20 PM – It’s time to admit something pretty damning: I don’t think I understand the “What If?” ad campaign. It’s not that I don’t like it (though it can sometimes be pretty cheesy). I just don’t think I understand what the marketing people are driving at and how it’s supposed to make me want to buy single-game tickets (if, in fact, that’s the goal).
It feels good to get that off my chest.
10:27 PM – The Indians sort of threatened to make a game of it there in the top of the eighth, but to be completely honest, they didn’t look all that into it. Asdrubal drove in a run and we had second and third with only one out, but Kipnis and Brantley couldn’t get the job done.
Royals lead to 5-2. Our Hirsute Hero will be on for the ninth.
10:32 PM – Perez sends them down in order. After all that, we have a chance to get out of this thing in less than two and a half hours, which is something.
10:41 PM – In an ending that can only be called synecdochic, Johnny Damon grounds out to the catcher to end the game. That’s five straight losses for the Indians and 10 of their last 13. Turn out the lights…
ENDGAME.
66 Comments
Love the image and theme.
The Duchamp horrible photoshop is ridiculous and awesome.
Good recap. With the current demise of the Indians “playoff potential”, recaps of bad games need rants to keep the readers sane. I was simultaneously shocked and not surprised at all to find out our big pickups are performing at less than 0.5 wins over replacement. Absolutely no way a team can succeed when that is the outcome of players signed in order to make a playoff push. I’m torn on Dolan, Antonetti, Shapiro trio. On one hand, selling the team and getting new upper management couldn’t be a better thing to happen. But the grass isn’t always greener…. do we want 10-20 years of Pittsburgh Pirates level of competition? Yikes…
This non-recap recap was the best thing about the game last night (which I didn’t watch, because SWIMMING!! BEACH VOLLEYBALL!!! OTHER STUFF I ONLY CARE ABOUT ONCE EVERY 4 YEARS WAS MORE ENTERTAINING!!!!).
I get what you’re saying re Shapiro and Antonetti, but what I just can’t get over is the way that they so ham-handedly approached this “window” that THEY announced. They may have been “assets” to the team prior to the “window,” but then the “window” arrives and what do they do? You said it: Damon, Kotchman, Lowe, Slowey, and Sizemore. The only genuine “miss” of the bunch was Jimenez; a move that I still applaud. The others weren’t misses, but non-attempts. Whatever “asset” they may have previously brought was caught in the “window” that THEY slammed shut. That “window” is what they were paid to deliver and exploit. By doing next to nothing, they are not assets but a liabilities. The only “asset” that Shapiro and Antonetti brought to the fans is apathy. This would bother me, but I’m apathetic. Fire them? I don’t care either way. We have nothing but a serious uphill road in front of us, with or without them.
I don’t even know if I disagree with you. I guess I’m just venting, which is strange, given that I just said I’m apathetic. I’m passionately apathetic.
Where’s the bourbon?
ok, things to fix for 2013:
1. Rotation (Masterson/Ubaldo/McAllister/Carmona-Hernandez/Carrasco) – is that good enough and how can we improve it?
2. LF – please, just please. I want BJ Upton (not even considering the elite guys available), but I’ll settle for anyone who might give above a 100OPS+.
3. DH – do we bring Hafner back? do we try to find an aging hitter willing to take a cheap deal to be our pro-hitter? or do we use it as a “rest” spot for everybody else.
4. 1B – Kotchman is a FA. Honestly, looking at how terrible the FA options are at 1B, we might just want to re-sign him, take the defense and hopefully put enough money into other spots to account for it.
5. Choo. 1 more year of Choo. Do we shop him this offseason? Maybe pair him with one of those rotation guys to try to get an upgrade there? If we lose him, then how do we fill-in RF?
2. Any chance we fix CF instead, and move Brantley back to LF? Which would be easier? Is it the same thing?
3. Please, no more “hitting-only” DHs. Those days are gone (at least for small market teams).
4. If we fix LF and keep Choo (or at least some comparable talent – but see below), I’m okay with keeping Kotchman. Don’t see any way that we can fix LF (or CF), SP, and potentially RF in one off-season. “What if” we had fixed one of those last year?
5. One more year of Choo, please. If we can option him and a rotation guy to improve the rotation, we have to at least come up with an 85% solution to the gap created by Choo. I don’t see that happening if we also fix LF/CF.
This is not a correction, but you mean Magritte.
Also love your username…
I admire your plans and scenarios unfortunately the same people will be in place making the decisions and they have clearly demonstrated to date they can’t deliver. Honestly I don’t see this team going through another patchwork offseason and doing anything other then the same. Just look at all the ?s from what you posted. To much of the same I’m afraid.
2. yes, it “could” be easier to fix CF instead. Angel Pagan for instance could be had somewhat cheaply. And, he has a comical name, which is a plus for Indians OFers (Milton Bradley, Coco Crisp).
3. hitting is tough to find these days. if you can find a bat at a cheap price, then you do it. I think we can do without a Damon on the roster, no?
4. I agree.
5. maybe we get a decent OF prospect too? I don’t know. We need to explore all options though. if someone is willing to pay a good price for Choo, then we need to do it. Choo will make between $8-10mil next year too. So, it “frees” up that money (minus whatever we take back of course).
lots of questions and some serious questionable past decisions. no doubt. but, have to at least explore if this is fixable or not.
“Are there no consequences for this?”
I think we’re on the same page in regards to Shapiro and Antonetti. The “job is tough” defense only goes so far. That can be the case AND the person doing the job can be bad at. They aren’t mutually exclusive.
On this list – “Derek Lowe and Ubaldo Jimenez and Kevin Slowey and Grady Sizemore and Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon”, I’d also add Aaron Cunningham, a guy we traded to get.
I honestly cannot think of a worse off-season in recent Cleveland sports, especially when you consider these were moves made by a team that wanted to compete.
You bring up a point I’ve been thinking about for a while- If they knew (and they had to) that when the window came they’d be stuck relying on bargain bin talent to take us over, why did they even go along with that plan? The window strategy makes sense if, when the time comes, you have money and low level prospects to acquire the last few pieces you need. We had neither. So why did they go ahead with a strategy that they wouldn’t be able to implement when the time came!?!?!
Would having a Pagan Angel our our roster be wise? Don’t we need as much divine intervention as possible?
I know we’ve been down this road before, but bear with me on the DH thing: I definitely have no desire to have Damon on the roster any longer. But assuming LF gets fixed, why couldn’t we have, say, both Santana and Marson playing every night? I know that Marson doesn’t “quite” compare to Hafner (he might actually be better right now), but I see more advantages to the “rest” option than I do the alternative. I understand what you’re saying, but I just feel that a team like the Indians needs to have as many options as possible in the line-up – both at the plate and in the field, and having a pure DH on the roster is just a handcuff. Losing the pure DH would give “developmental” guys (2/3 of our roster) the chance to hit (and/or play a position) every night and actually “develop.” If, by Pagan’s Angels, we somehow find ourselves in penant contention one day, then we can maybe think about a late season hitter rental. To me, that’s the only time that a Hafner or Thome makes sense for a team like Cleveland.
But, I’m no baseball genius or expert, and could be wrong.
1. No, I don’t it is. Do you trust any of those guys? McAllister’s early success reminds me of ’11 Tomlin/Masterson.
2,3,4. These absolutely need to be addressed. I would not bring back Hafner at any price simply because he cannot play the field. Knowing our limitations (and not knowing the FA market), I would opt for a 3 or 4 headed platoon. Maybe a defensive guy like Kotchman (cheap) along with some guys with obvious L/R splits that can play both positions. Sidenote: I really wanted us get Seth Smith this offseason to do just this thing. Sadly, he’s having a really solid year in Oakland.
5. We have to shop Choo. Even if we are in contention in a terrible ALC, I do not want to see Choo walk away after ’13 and us end up with nothing. The state of this team, I don’t think we can afford that.
Because they had to continue the charade as long as they could. When the team was staying in contention it provided them cover to continue the same old Tribe speak. Once cracks started to develop you saw them unable to act or unwilling. What people need to start asking if if they can’t spend and they don’t have prospects then how exactly do they expect to even attempt to win, anything? Or do they?
2. I’d be for this too, but Brantley is more valuable if he can play center well. As a CF, his offense is good. As a LF, not so much. That said, I’d still take him in left over what we have now.
3. Yes. Agree completely.
I’m with you regarding the DH – it’s a good way to let the young guys have a night out of the field and still keep their bat in the lineup. Having an “only a bat” option is only good if you have a stud to take that spot – a .280 hitting, 30+ HR kind of guy….which, we don’t have.
I guess, keep hope alive!
I guess I’m okay with the “window” strategy. Given the economics of MLB, it do think it’s probably the only option for small/mid-market teams (unless I’m missing something – maybe Pittsburgh is now on to some new way?). I have no problem with the FO saying there’s a window; but once they say it, they HAVE to be absolutely committed to the strategy, even if it means serious deficit spending. It’s the ONLY way to compete with the Yankees, Red Sox, and even Tigers, of the world (and it signifies to free agents that this is a place to be, which in turn, helps the future “window” strategy). Granted, failure means they probably lose their jobs, but they risk that no matter what (see 2012).
At least Lee was fully committed at Gettsyburg. He failed miserably, but at least he went all out. I can respect that strategy, if the specific tactics were terrible.
Keeping with the military history analogy (sorry if this doesn’t resonate), it seems that the Indians have announced a strategy to invade Europe in order to defeat the Nazis, but are only willing to devote to a Dieppe or Market Garden. When the “window” comes, they have to put every ship, every plane, and every rifle they can in Normandy. Otherwise, the Nazis (Yankees and Tigers) win. (Yes, I just did that.)
No less, by a team that SAID it WOULD compete!
Good point on #2.
TB the past few years and Pitt now are onto a different way, yes. It’s called be an absolutely terrible franchise for 10+ years to build up enough top10 level talent prospects in your system to give yourself a young team to compete.
Not sure there would still be baseball in town if the Tribe were as bad for as long as the pre-2008 Rays or the 1992-2010 Pirates.
Well, that’s sort of what the Indians did in the ’80s, which brought us the ’90s, which has provided the basis for all of our current marketing!
But, okay. What about the Reds? Granted, I think their market is not necessarily comparable (given a 3-state fanbase), but I do like what they’re doing.
What are they doing?
and it does go back further too. the 2005-2008 window was a good one. looking at the talent on those teams, any one of them could have competed in the playoffs (given better health or luck depending on the team).
but, what has happened since then has devastated the team. losing too much talent and getting poor returns when we lost them. not getting any boost from the draft in that period and keeping the ship somewhat upright merely on the backs of the M’s having a terrible GM (Asdrubal/Choo).
all that being said, we are still not as bad as alot of teams out there and are one really good offseason from being able to compete in our division. which, is ridiculous all things considered.
pretty simple in Cinci: they got the Reds to matter more than the Bengals. so, when they get talent, they hold onto it.
also, it helps that they drafted a heck of alot better than we have (votto, bruce, cueto, etc.)
. . . and can’t sign, and can’t afford even if we could sign.
my quick thoughts on the rotation:
Masterson – peripherals weren’t much worse than standards in ’11. I think he’s more real than not. but, a guy you want as a SP3 on a contender.
McAllister – I think he’s a solid SP5. Not great, not much upside, but better than a guy like Tomlin long-term. And, if he’s not, well we ride the hot-hand of mediocre SP pitching prospects (we have a ton of those).
Ubaldo/Carmona-Hernandez/Carrasco – I have no idea how to gauge what to expect from any one of these guys. At least in Carrasco’s case it’s because of an injury.
Ah yes, drafting!
So, since the Indians will never be more important than the Browns, maybe the only solution is to move them to San Antonio! I see what you’re doing here, you sly dog. Well, you can’t have them!
Yeah, the military analogies work.
For generic strategy options, I usually pick between go big, go long, or go home.
In mid-market MLB speak,I’d call going big the windows option, bide your time and go all in when you have your chance. Going long is kind of what the Rays and A’s kind of do – invest hugely in scouting and the minors and be willing to constantly turn over your roster even if it means trading young players you control. Going home is the complete rebuild, aka Houston Astros, and a few years of waiting to then decide between option one or two.
For us, I think option one has failed and option two is not a possibility considering we don’t exactly have the assets to get away it. Doing so would just keep us mediocre. That leaves option three – nuke it from space.
Indians to Texas = awesome
It’s Angel Pagan, not a Pagan Angel. Important distinction because it implies that he can still flip to either side.
As far as divine intervention, after the “luck” we have had the past few seasons, I think Pedro Cerrano’s line right before he smashed that change-up over the fence is appropriate here.
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as far as Lou Marson being a better hitter than Hafner, I think you are letting your hatred for the DH-only spot delude you. 120 vs. 102 OPS+, Hafner has 2X PAs, and a history of hitting at or above these levels (where Lou had a nice hot streak but has been a bad hitter in his career)
I agree with those assessments, though I’m a little lower on Masterson. Left handers just MURDER the guy.
that is my nightmare actually. i do suspect SA will get a team (rabid baseball fans, huge youth leagues, big city, can draw from Austin too).
but, if it’s the Indians, then what do I do? I won’t be able to cheer for the team that got ripped from Cleveland, but my kids are going to want to cheer for the local team and I’m going to want to drive an hour to see a MLB game.
when is the Rays lease up again?
Fair enough with the stats (which are what they are, but not everything), but I don’t think I’m deluded. I’ve never said that Marson was as good as Hafner (better!), but with Hafner on the roster, we’ll never (ever) know how good Marson (or the other burgeoning guys on the roster) could be.
Besides, that “history” of which you speak now qualifies as “ancient.” I believe I recall it being mentioned by Herodotus.
To clarify, I only meant that Marson is playing better than Hafner right now. I stand by that.
At that point, you would have to move back to Cleveland out of spite. How else will your kids learn spite?
Lou’s last hit was on July 14th.
His last HR was in 2011 (he had 1HR in 272 PA)
I stand by that he had a nice little hot streak 🙂
good point.
How many ABs has he had since July 14? How many has Hafner had? How well has Hafner done with those ABs?
I do not believe that the DH is what it used to be, and, as Hafner has proven, can’t be relied on to be. I think the Indians need to look at it for what it was originally intended to be: a replacement for the pitcher – a better 8 or 9 hole hitter. Under that approach, Marson, or Lopez, or Hannahan, or even Duncan, are all improvements – and much, much cheaper than a non-hitting, non-playing Hafner, Thome, etc – thus freeing up salary space to improve another hole. And when that DH spot does move forward to give Choo, Kipnis, Cabrera, or Brantley a break, it’s a no-brainer.
I know I won’t win this debate on stats (which lie), but I am personally convinced that the days of the slammin’ DH are done, and need to be forgotten in Cleveland.
I could definitely get behind the “go long” approach that you present. It would make very good sense for us – investing in things that we can afford. Besides, I’ve long since given up my attachment to specific players (be they Indians, Browns, or Cavs). With the exception of Choo, I guess. He’s still my favorite athlete in Cleveland, and I don’t want to see him go – but when he does, my attachment disorder will be officially cured.
Maybe by the time this happens they won’t be getting ripped from Cleveland? Maybe Clevelanders will be that apathetic by then?
Marson can’t hold a candle to Hafner offensively, but at least Lou owns a glove.
i looked it up earlier and Lou had somewhere in the mid-teens PAs. so, it’s not like he’s been completely ignored.
Hafner has 2 HRs in the past week along with some other hits – he recently even hit a 3B (though currently on a 0/6 streak).
Not completely ignored, but it’s the next closest thing. Mid-teens PAs translates into 4, 5, maybe 6 (not likely), starts in a month. There’s no way that he or any other player can be expected to build any sort of rhythm or consistency that way. His earlier “nice little hot streak” was becasue he was playing regularly.
There was always the fear that the Indians’ talk of a “window for contention” was just a stall tactic by the organization, something to try to stave off fan anger in the aftermath of the trades of Sabathia and Lee. “We may not be good now, but trust us, we have a plan and we’ll be contending again in five years. Just keep the faith.”
But five years later, and after two years of failing to take the necessary steps to build a contender – by absolutely, steadfastly and stubbornly ignoring the glaring holes on the roster – the organization’s incompetence and lack of commitment has been exposed.
The contention window *was* a stall tactic, a ponzi scheme to convince fans to keep investing in the team, despite the fact that the organization had no real plan or intention to pay off on that investment. Then, when it finally came time to show the window wasn’t a long con, the front office bet their money on glue horses like Johnny Damon and Derek Lowe, hoping that the 50-1 shot would come through and save them from their disastrous decisions and bald-faced lies.
Now the only people who don’t know that the game is up are running the Indians. And from the lack of urgency coming from Shapiro and Antonetti, I think it’s safe to say they will still be running the Indians for several years to come.
Just give them 5 more years. They swear, they’re good for it.
ok, fine, went and looked it up. currently, he’s riding an 0/15 streak.
since July 1st:
6/31 (+3 BB) = .193BA / .290OBP / .491OPS
4 runs (one as a pinch-runner)
0 HR (also, for the year)
0 3B
1 2B
His July numbers are right in line with what he did in April, May and the rest of his career. In June, he had a whole 16 more ABs than July but had a very, very nice offensive month.
I agree it’s a tough gig, but if you don’t produce when you get chances, then you don’t get more chances.
I sure do mean Magritte. Sorry I was thinking of Duchamp probably because the Indians season is a urinal fountain.
So what you’re saying is that when Marson doubles his PAs, he produces at a respectable major league level! Stats. Blech.
“if you don’t produce when you get chances, then you don’t get more chances.”
Especially if the team in question is paying a truckload of money for an ox to swing a bat instead.
Chickens, eggs, all that.
hey, you keep your delusions and i’ll keep mine 🙂
Deal!