August 28, 2014

Weeden on Pace to Break All Club Rookie Passing Marks

At age 29, Brandon Weeden isn’t your normal NFL rookie quarterback. This also isn’t your grandfather’s NFL.

When Weeden started week one, he became the first Browns rookie quarterback to do so. It would make sense that in the pass happy NFL of today, Weeden is on pace to break all kinds of Cleveland rookie passing marks.

“In his second career start, rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden threw for a Browns rookie record 322 yards at Cincinnati (9/16). He surpassed the previous mark of 310 set by Eric Zeier at Cincinnati on October 29, 1995. He later tallied 320 passing yards at Baltimore (9/27). Weeden is the only rookie in team history to throw for 300 or more yards multiple times in one season. He joined Derek Anderson (three in 2007) and Kelly Holcomb (two in 2002) as the only Browns to throw for 300 or more yards multiple times in a single season since the club returned in 1999. Through seven games this season, Weeden holds three of the top four Browns rookie single game passing yards records.”

MOST PASSING YARDS IN A GAME BY A BROWNS ROOKIE
Player Opp. Date Att. Comp. Yards
1. Brandon Weeden at Cin. 9/16/12 26 37 322
2. Brandon Weeden at Bal. 9/23/12 24 52 320
3. Eric Zeier at Cin. 10/29/95 46 26 310
4. Brandon Weeden at NYG 10/7/12 22 35 291
5.  Colt McCoy at Pit. 10/17/10 23 33 281

Tim Couch currently holds the significant rookie QB season marks. In 1999 he came off the bench after halftime of the Browns’ opener and started 14 of the games that season. He threw for 2447 yards and 15 touchdowns. Kosar threw for 1578 yards his rookie year with 8 touchdowns and Colt McCoy finished with 1576 yards and 6 scores.

Weeden is currently on pace for 4075 yards and 20 touchdown passes.

  • NoVA Buckeye

    Next Brett Favre?

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    The number of attempts he has a game he should only continue to go up the ladder.

  • Massy

    Do those stats count all the “if X would have caught it” points Weeden gets?
    What’s the rookie record for losses?

  • Jared in LA

    He’s doing this b/c he’s healthy and not getting destroyed (sacked) back there. If all goes well (hopefully after B-More & Steelers games) he may actually start every game. I don’t remember the last time our starting QB’s made it through an entire season.

  • Jared in LA

    Not a shot at you, but I absolutely loathe the QB “wins and losses” stat, yeck.

  • BuckeyeDawg

    But isn’t he like 147 years old? He’s terrible! FREE COLT!!!!

  • CBI

    Yes, I believe it’s called ‘attempts’ and it is used to calculate completion percentage.

  • CBI

    From a league perspective here are some rookie passing records as well:
    Highest passer rating, rookie, season: 98.1, Ben Roethlisberger, 2004
    Most pass completions, rookie, season: 354, Sam Bradford, 2010
    Highest completion percentage, rookie, season: 66.44, Ben Roethlisberger, 2004 (196/295)
    Most passing yards, rookie, season: 4,051, Cam Newton, 2011
    Most passing yards, game, rookie: 432, Cam Newton, September 18, 2011
    Highest yards per attempt, rookie, season: 9.411, Greg Cook, 1969
    Most Passing Touchdowns, Rookie, Season 26, Peyton Manning, 1998
    Most consecutive passes, None intercepted, rookie season: 169, Sam Bradford, October 10, 2010-November 21, 2010
    Best touchdown pass–interception differential, rookie season: 14 (20–6) Dan Marino, 1983

  • mgbode

    thanks. I wonder how many of those get broken this year (not just by Weeden but by this entire 5-man group).

  • Vindictive_Pat

    If I could find a QB hit/sack ratio to compare to other QBs, Weeden’s would be very impressive. He’s taken the 11th most hits in the NFL but has been sacked the 7th fewest number of times. This would seem to point to him being good at avoiding sacks, although you’d probably have to consider interceptions thrown (10) or fumbles lost (0) in there somewhere to see if he’s really successful.

  • Believelander

    Looking at some sack numbers at NFL.com, I just realized something for all the Colt Heads to chew on – Arizona’s two quarterbacks have been sacked more this season than Colt McCoy was sacked last season. I was like “lolwut”

    It’s good to see after a shaky start that our line has really solidifed; 1 sack in the last 3 games. Now if they could JUST start run blocking. Richardson and Hardesty are getting hit in the backfield waaaaaaay too much.

  • Massy

    I meant the loss record for Browns rookies, but it’s good to know Weeds is on pace to tie the NFL record.

  • BuckeyeDawg

    Weeden is on pace to break Newton’s rookie season passing yards record. A lot of things have to happen for that to be realized, but interesting nonetheless.

  • CBI

    Here’s another rookie one I’d really like to see broken this year…
    Most yards gained, rookie, season: 1,808 Eric Dickerson, 1983
    Can always hope right?

  • mgbode

    Weeden has alot of running to do to catch up to Dickerson :)

  • CBI

    I posted that right before I read that Trent might be on the shelf for the next several weeks. Sigh….
    Maybe Weeden can sting together some more of those end-of-half 35 yard runs. Like 55 of them.

  • Ron

    Doesn’t mean anything as far as the Brown’s record is concerned. He can’t scramble or run.

  • Jaker

    Unfortunately no one outside of Northeast Ohio will care if he does because Robert “Gods child” Griffin, tannehill and Luck will all also break it and most likely one of them will hold the new record

  • http://www.facebook.com/anne.dunn.144 Anne Dunn

    Weeden is 4th best protected Quarterback in the NFL — a dramatic turn around for the line from last year according to Pro Football Reference. Where did you get the idea he is taking so many hits?

    He’s being treated like he’s made of fine china, with linemen who are told to take holding calls if they have to, just don’t let him feel pressure. And 2 of his supposed sacks came in the first game against the Bengals when he wasn’t touched by the defense at all, but tripped over his own feet.

    He’s throwing well, but his play still drops off in the 2nd half when the game is on the line. Then he converts on less than 20% of his third downs and completes less than half of his passes.

    The most telling record he is on track to break is the one for the most losses since 1999.

    Don’t nominate him for the Hall of Fame just yet. He needs to find a way to lead a team to winning games.

  • mgbode

    so, you are saying that Weeden gets the ball away quickly enough to not take sacks, yet hasn’t thrown many INTs after wk1, and still hasn’t fumbled the ball.

    yeah, he must be terrible :)

  • Vindictive_Pat

    Straight off the NFL.com website. PFF probably takes either more or less into account. I’m guessing they are either only counting sacks, or they are counting sacks, hits, AND qb hurries. Not sure why you think that is so improbable… he got blasted after that perfect throw to Gordon on Sunday and usually takes a couple good shots per game after incompletions.

    I’m not nominating him for anything yet… just saying he has been a pleasant surprise. I think he’ll improve on the areas you highlighted. Heck, if Gordon catches the ball there is one big late-game drive to add to the list.

  • http://www.facebook.com/anne.dunn.144 Anne Dunn

    Try Pro Football Reference under advanced passing stats. It goes beyond the number of sacks.

  • http://www.facebook.com/anne.dunn.144 Anne Dunn

    No, Weeden is getting over 4 seconds to get off every pass, which is unusual, and the line is leading the league in giving him all the protection any QB could hope to have. All that’s missing is some success when the game is on the line and a few more winds, like the other QBs who get that kind of protection.

    Weeden is still not very good at getting his throws off quickly, but he doesn’t have to because of his offensive line.

  • http://www.facebook.com/anne.dunn.144 Anne Dunn

    The worst record we’ve had since 1999 is 2 and 14, so far.

  • mgbode

    where? it’s just sacks taken under number of attempts and normalized to the starting QBs in the league. and he’s 117% (which means he’s good at not getting sacked).

    i see nowhere it states he is getting 4sec/pass (which is crazy-high) as you mentioned above and pro-football-reference does not track QB-hits.

    i like the advanced passing stats (and how they play into OL) so if you have a place you are getting these from, please tell.

  • http://www.facebook.com/anne.dunn.144 Anne Dunn

    Count 1001, 1002. . . to see how much time. It’s nothing fancy, but you’ve forgotten last year. Sometimes when I was checking, McCoy didn’t even get to 1002 before he had to dump the ball.

  • Vindictive_Pat

    That’s misleading though… take out the 4 INT game against Philly, who sees our offense every day in practice because Shurmur learned it from Reid, and you have a rookie QB who is as good as you could hope for. His stats are actually better than Luck’s when you take out that Philly game and take out Andrew Luck’s bye week, which again I think is fair because of the Philly defense’s familiarity with our offense.

  • Vindictive_Pat

    I see that you are using sack%+, and I applaud you for using pro-football-reference as it’s a great site, but I dont’ think that stat includes all that you’re thinking it includes. I don’t think it includes hits and qb hurries, which also count as pressure. The reason I don’t think it includes that is because the website doesn’t give you the simple stats for those categories, so it seems unlikely that they would be used in a formula. I am more likely to trust the stats on NFL.com for the “hits” category, and I think my assumption that Weeden is good at avoiding sacks is still valid. The stats still tell me that he gets hit a good amount compared to other QBs and that he gets sacked less than most QBs.

  • mgbode

    it doesn’t. i’ve checked the stats against others before and the formula is simply sacks per attempt. then normalized by NFL average sacks per attempt (100 being league average, larger than 100 being good for less sacks per attempt). no hits or hurries included.

  • mgbode

    agreed on mobile QBs making the sack% a deceptive number. and it does apply to Weeden in that it alters the league average, which affects his baseline.
    the question is whether their spinning adds to the sack total or reduces it. there was a study a couple seasons back that showed the mobile QBs get sacked more often but it was a pretty small sample size of one season.
    on the counting, my eyes are telling me that Weeden gets most passes out quickly. yours are telling you that he’s holding the ball more often. that’s why i was hoping there was a site that tracked it. Football Outsiders might in their pay portion (I don’t pay though).
    i agree Colt had worse protection last year. both from not having a solid RT and from the whole OL learning the WCO blocking scheme. but, I also “think” that Weeden is getting the ball out quicker per attempt which is leading to his good ability on not getting sacked (and not throwing INTs at a high rate since wk1).

  • http://www.facebook.com/james.workman.969 James Workman

    I’m sorry, was the title of the article “Get Weeden on the ballot”, who said he was on his way to Canton? They even preface the whole thing by explaining how the NFL has changed over the years and you have to put his stats in context. I love he way you Colt apologists will twist the facts like your running for public office. Get over it.

  • http://www.facebook.com/james.workman.969 James Workman

    Where do you find the rankings for “all the protection any QB could hope to have”? Can you guys stop making stuff up so the rest of us can try to have an intelligent discussion.

  • http://www.facebook.com/james.workman.969 James Workman

    Please stop making up your own statistics, as well as sighting those “fictitious” rankings to support your incoherent ramblings. It hurts my head.

  • http://www.facebook.com/anne.dunn.144 Anne Dunn

    I think what wveryone’s looking for is a way to find meaningful numbers to use.

    Take a look at the NFL Total Quarterback Rating developed at ESPN. It incorporates most of the factors everyone is wondering about.

    I think it is a big improvement over the QB Rating we generally see that uses attempts, completions, yards, TD, and INTs, without noting any differences in these broad categories.

    The TQR is all about differences in each play. It is a statistical
    method for considering how much each play means to the team in terms of winning and how much the QB contributes to the play.

    Essentially, the rating assigns a clutch factor to plays and then distributes credit for the plays among the protection, the throw, the catch, and the run after the catch..

    It also assigns clutch credit for what a QB gains or loses on the ground as well as through the air.

    It looks like a major improvement in putting a value on what a QB does for a team

    Take a look at the ratings for 2010, 2011, and 2012. You may be surprised by what the Total Quarterback Rating shows.

  • Vindictive_Pat

    You know, except for that 13 yard run last Sunday to get the first down. Running is why Colt McCoy got injured each year he was the starter.

  • http://www.facebook.com/anne.dunn.144 Anne Dunn

    Good info. CBI, and Weinke is an interesting comparison.