July 30, 2014

MLB Rumors: Where will Kyle Lohse land?

There is still one free agent on the market that could potentially add value to many starting staffs. Kyle Lohse posted a WAR of 3.6 last season for the Cardinals and has yet to sign a deal.

According to MLBTradeRumors.com, the teams most likely to be the landing spot for the Scott Boras client are-

“Looking at the field, I’d say that the Cardinals seem like the most logical candidate, with the Pirates, Orioles, Brewers, Indians, Padres, Angels, Rangers and (only because of the Boras factor) Nationals as longshots. You see Scott Boras’ problem — every team has at least one reason to not sign Lohse. That said, Boras is known for finding healthy contracts out of seemingly impossible markets for his clients. If a team loses confidence in its pitching situation during Spring Training or a top ace gets injured, Lohse’s long wait may pay off after all.”

Here is what they had to say about the Indians’ chances of bringing in Lohse-

“Indians: The Tribe aren’t interested, according to Buster Olney, but they make sense as a landing spot for Lohse. Cleveland’s rotation is still a weak point and since the Indians have already splurged by signing Bourn and Nick Swisher, you could argue they might as well spend some more to address their pitching. The Indians’ first round pick is protected, and they’ve already given up their second-round and competitive balance round (69th overall) picks for Bourn and Swisher, signing Lohse would only cost the Tribe a third-rounder. Sacrificing three draft picks may be a step too far for a smaller-market team like Cleveland, however.”

The Indians have many arms in camp, but the question for them isn’t about the fifth starter spot. It’s as much about starters number one through three as well. Can Justin Masterson bounce back to be a team ace? Can Brett Meyers make a successful transition back to a starting pitcher after coming out of the bullpen? Will the Indians ever fix Ubaldo Jimenez?

There may not be a lot more money in the free agent well, but at some point the 34 year old Lohse has to take what the market is willing to give him right?

[Related: My limited view from Goodyear]

  • mgbode

    KYLE LOHSE = WORLD SERIES!!!! GET IT DONE OR YOU’RE FIRED ANTONETTI!!!

  • mgbode

    on a more serious note, the issue here is that Lohse wants a long-term deal and the teams that might be willing to give him one do not want to give up a 1st round pick. therefore, a decent backup plan might be to land on a 1 year cheap deal (so he can be completely unrestricted next fall). however, what team would be willing to give-up a draft pick for 1 year of a pitcher?

    the Indians (3rd round pick) would be giving up the 2nd least draft compensation for him (Cardinals give none). so, if it’s a 1 year deal, then we do make the most sense.

    however, in the end, it seems that St. Louis will just wait him out and sign him to a cheap 1 year deal and he’ll jump to the true FA market next fall.

  • http://www.facebook.com/Kylebrannan Kyle Brannan

    Not sure why Dice K doesn’t get more attention. I am not at spring training but he seemed to have some pretty good years until he was injured… Possibly the league now sees him better that hes been around for 5 years. I would love to see him come back and give another 15-18 win season

  • mgbode

    because even when Dice-K had his one good year(2008), he wasn’t really as good as he was lucky. that was proven in later years. puts WAAAAAYYYYY too many guys on base through hits and BBs.

    add in that he has been injured and ineffective the past 2 seasons and anything we get out of him is just good for us and not to be expected.

  • Natedawg86

    Does losing the third round pick mean that we can overpay for the first round and lock up a “risky pick” who may play a year of college instead of coming to the MLB?

  • Natedawg86

    I prefer that the Indians pitchers not get attention

  • mgbode

    no, you only get allotted the money of the draft picks you sign. not even those you draft, let alone picks you lose.

    that’s why we had the strategy of over-drafting a guy in the 1st last year to have a ton of extra money for rounds 2-4 where we could take bigger risks with more $$.

  • Natedawg86

    hence the minor league contract…lol

  • Garry_Owen

    Definitely nervous about giving up another draft pick. I’ve become convinced (thanks to the wise folks here at WFNY) that the Indians’ core problem is developing young talent. Lohse would confirm another strategy of “window addressing.” (See what I did there?) I’m excited to see what the Tribe can do on the field this year with their new FA signings, but I’m not a fan of this window approach.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    You are being kind when you say the Indians core problem is developing young talent it’s way worse then that but for me it starts with the drafting. It’s kind of difficult to develop players who are marginal at best.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Put the Lohsen in the basket beotch!

  • mgbode

    what are the odds an average 3rd round pick gives you even 1 good year of MLB starting pitching?

    the odds on Lohse are probably around 75%. those are the tough things to weigh here.

  • Jared

    There was talk of possible sign and trades in MLB because of this. How it could work: Indians sign Lohse to whatever deal and trades them to team X in exchange for that teams 2nd round pick and maybe a 5th. We move up a round and add a 5th they pay and get their Lohse without losing their #1

  • Jared

    Or I would take him on a 1 or 2 year deal for 6 to 8 mill a year. We still haven’t spent all of the savings from those we let go this year plus the FSO money. They have it to spend, if he comes down on years and total.

  • mgbode

    I think that MLB would frown upon this greatly. To the possible point of sanctions.

    Also, we cannot technically trade for draft picks. We can deal for PTBNL but it gets sort of sketchy on if we could do something like that one.

  • Jaker

    Call me crazy, but I don’t think he would be that big of an improvement from our current staff. Maybe we would go after him if he was cheap or didnt cost a pick, but I have a feeling we are gunna sit back and let him go elsewhere. Now, it would be a different story if he would only cost 3-5 mil a year and we could maybe deal some bullpen arms for a solid prospect

  • mgbode

    Let’s assume he doesn’t just repeat 2012 and do a 2 year sample window on Lohse instead:
    30-11 3.11ERA 399.1IP 1.127WHIP 3.18SO/BB 0.8HR/9IP

    you crazy.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Pitching is extremely difficult to draft I give you that but the Indians have been just as bad at drafting positional players too. Not only that but when you look at the players they passed on to draft the failures they did it just makes things worse.

    As far as Lohse goes I’d give him a two year deal at this point the Indians should be “all-in.” I’m not sold on the guy he’s not the dominant starter this team needs but if signed he’d be your #1 starter. That says it all.

  • Steve

    The Cardinals “give up” the pick they gain when Lohse signs elsewhere, which will be higher than the selection the Indians give up.

  • Steve

    And if you take it out more than two years, he’s an average pitcher greatly benefiting from the NL and the magic that the Cardinals seem to wave onto pitchers. 4.88 ERA in the AL.

  • mgbode

    he hasn’t pitched in the AL since 2006. It is now 2013. How is that relevant? He has given the Cardinals 3 very solid seasons out of 5 (and was injured in those other 2 seasons).

    he’s a guy who “found himself” in his 30s. while I think we all know what that likely means to a MLB player, I do not care as long as he performs when handed the ball.

  • Steve

    It has a lot to do with the Cardinals coaching staff and facing NL lineups. The lack of strikeouts (5.2 per 9 when facing non-pitchers) isn’t going to translate well to the AL.

  • mgbode

    it works fine for guys like Matt Harrison. i wouldn’t expect him to be 2012 Lohse, but he’d be our projected best pitcher. and, you suggesting a 4.88 ERA (jumping 2 runs) is silly. give him a 0.5-0.75 ERA bump and at worst he brushes up against 4.0.

    i agree on the Cardinals pitching staff. like the Braves and Rangers, they seemingly are able to get more out of their pitchers.

  • Steve

    Harrison keeps the ball in the park in Arlington.

    And we should expect a .5-.75 ERA bump just from normal regression to the mean before we put him in the AL.

  • mgbode

    and Lohse kept them in the park in StL as well.

    I just think you are expecting worst case out of Lohse and there is little reason for that. Sadly, alot of wasting typing by both of us as I doubt we have any real shot at him.

  • mgbode

    i was talking in general (not just Tribe), but I agree with you our drafting had been terrible. too early to evaluate on Grant, but that time is getting closer as well.

  • Steve

    You know full well that keeping the ball in the park in Arlington is a whole lot more difficult than in St. Louis.

    And I could say you’re expecting a best case scenario out of Lohse. Except getting that from a 34 year old who doesn’t strike enough guys out, especially if he switches to the tougher league seems outlandish.

  • mgbode

    yes, but StL has graded out similar to Cle in HR-factor recently (though I hate that they use total HRs – would like to just see opponents HRs to eliminate the home-team factor).

    I would expect a 3.5-4.0ERA, 200IP, ~3WAR, and 15 or so wins (too dependent on team-factors but still). I don’t think that is outlandish.