Box Score: Timberwolves 100, Cavaliers 92
February 11, 2013While We’re Waiting… BOURN!
February 12, 2013Baseball season is getting closer and closer. I for one am thankful. These are the dog days: no Football, a month away from the NCAA Tournament, and I’m NBA Free. But pitchers and catchers reported to Goodyear on Sunday, so that means the good stuff – Tribe games 6-7 nights a week – is coming.
That was the open to the piece that I was going to write about the Jason Giambi DH possibility. Well, I’m sorry Jason, your potential roster spot was just taken by….Michael Bourn. Wait…what? Did I just read that correctly? Michael Bourn? You mean the two time-All Star CF, with the speed and two-time gold glove? You mean the durable 30-year old leadoff man who will make the Indians outfield the place where fly balls and line drives go to die? Nah, the Indians couldn’t…The Dolan family wouldn’t pay a second free agent in the same winter…Not a chance…
It happened folks. This is not a test. This is the real thing. Your Cleveland Indians are players.
To me, this is very simple. The Indians had a serious image problem with its fan base. The Dolan family ownership knew it and knew they had to do something big. Firing Manny Acta was a no brainer. When they decided to stick with President Mark Shapiro and GM Chris Antonetti to run the front office, it seemed like we would see more of the same. But as we know now, they played their trump card. Its like they had four aces up their collective sleeve. They pulled in Terry Francona as their new manager, something NOBODY, me especially, thought was possible. Francona was said to have brought instant credibility to the organization, but there was plenty of concern that the Dolan’s still wouldn’t spend money on free agents.
Well here we are on February 12th and the Indians makeover as as stunning as that old reality show “The Swan.”
Talk about a face lift. Manny Acta, Shin-Soo Choo, Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Casey Kotchman, Jason Donald, and Tony Sipp are out. Trevor Bauer, Drew Stubbs, Matt Albers, David Shaw, and Mark Reynolds are in. The Nick Swisher free agent signing on the heels of the Choo trade was move that showed Tribe fans the power of Francona’s reach. More importantly, Swisher’s energy and big contract were great signs to Tribe fans everywhere.
And then tonight, after hearing the Tribe didn’t want to give a major league contract to potential DH’s Hafner and Jim Thome and settling for a minor league deal with the 42-year old Giambi, the front office completed an off-season Grand Slam. Bourn, a Scott Boras client, had been waiting in the wings for the dust to settle. He and fellow big name free agent Kyle Lohse still were looking for a team. But as Boras always does, he pulled a 11th hour rabbit out of his hat and found a home and  big money for one of his star clients.
Bourn (.274/.348/.391/42 steals in 2012), however, landed in a spot that nobody saw coming. He is your newest Cleveland Indian. The perfect fit to start the Wahoo offensive attack, which all of a sudden looks beastly. Antonetti gave the left-handed hitting all-star Center fielder four years and $48 million, with a vesting fifth year option. This is a contract that we thought we would never see under the Dolan ownership. Now it has happened twice in one off-season. And you know who you can thank for this?
Terry Francona.
If you think the Indians would be this serious about winning now with Sandy Alomar Jr. as their manager, you are nuts. Francona won’t admit to it, but you have to think he wasn’t taking this job unless he received some sort of assurances that ownership would spend money. Well, I’d say they answered that question pretty well, didn’t they? Don’t forget they also paid Hafner $2.75 million to go away.
Think about this – 12 months ago, the Indians gave Sizemore $5 million, Derek Lowe $5 million (via trade), and Casey Kotchman $3 million. That was it.
Now here we are, with a new top pitching prospect in Bauer, two new all-star outfielders signed for the next four years in Bourn and Swisher, all-star shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera reportedly arriving in Goodyear in tip top shape, rising young studs Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis, former top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall finally ready to take over full time at third base, the answer for the utility man hole in Mike Aviles, and a loaded bullpen.
The options are for Francona are plentiful. Bourn undoubtedly will take over in center. Brantley has played plenty of left field and should have no troubles moving there. Swisher was signed to play right field, but can play first base as well. Will Stubbs and Brantley platoon in left? Will Stubbs play some right field with Swisher getting ABs at first? Will Reynolds become the DH or stay at first? Will Stubbs be used as trade bait to possibly lure another starting pitcher? Aviles, who at one point was thought to be the guy playing every day with a rotating DH spot, will assume the utility roll that the front office wanted him to be.
Whatever way Francona wants to go, we are all going to be on board. Â You could be looking at a lineup like this on certain days:
CF Michael Bourn
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
1B Nick Swisher
C Carlos Santana
DH Mark Reynolds
2B Jason Kipnis
LF Michael Brantley
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
RF Drew Stubbs
I know Swisher be in right most of the time, but the thought of a Brantley-Bourn-Stubbs defensive outfield is incredible. That’s about as fast of a group as you will find in the majors. Meanwhile the Indians team speed, which has been all but zero these past few years, all of a sudden looks like a group that will be running on everyone.
If you were this excited about the season starting BEFORE tonight, I can’t imagine how you are feeling now that the Indians have added Bourn. I’ve already been contacted by two of the people who dropped out of my season ticket group wanting back in. This is a great night to be an Indians fan. I am as jacked as I have been in years. Kudos to Paul Dolan and Chris Antonetti for stepping up larger than any of us could have expected them to.
Now about that rotation…..
119 Comments
Oh dear. What am I not seeing?
i’m sure they have been burning up the phone lines and the absence of even a rumor should be all we need to know for now.
Two words in the first sentence. Two words in the next sentence. One word in the last sentence. All related. If it was a secret agent, it would assassinate you.
Wait for it . . .
Much more like the ’07 team imo. 5 guys with 20+ HRs, 7 with 10+.
Start? I’ve already got a whole room devoted to the stuff.
Does anyone have an ESPN Insider account? I’d love to hear some of the takeaway points of Keith Law’s latest assessment of the Tribe.
The consensus I’m getting so far from the Worldwide Leader, etc is that the Mets really needed to sign Bourn moreso than the Indians because Cleveland lost 90+ games and are still weak in the rotation, meaning Bourn will not carry much impact to put the Indians in contention. What I’m not hearing is how the Mets lost 88 games last year, traded away THEIR Cy Young winner, are pretty much as far away from contention as the Indians given their division, and have been pretty much silent on the free agent market this winter. It seems Bourn was going to face a similar scenario whichever place he signed, but is framed as though the Mets would have done more and have a better strategy in place.
The thought of a Bourn / Brantley / Stubbs OF brings me back to 2005 and the series at former Pac Bell Park when we had Sizemore (prime), Crisp and Gerut (before trade and injury) running around tracking every fly ball and line drive. Too bad the Jake of Prog didn’t have those dimensions. The pitching staff ERA would be under 2.
the Mets did need Bourn more than the Indians. I can agree with that part. Their OF is an absolute mess right now and we should be calling them offering Stubbs at a ridiculously high ROI for ourselves.
the part I disagree with Law is that he says the Indians are a poor fit for Bourn. And why? because we have 2 guys who can play CF (Stubbs and Brantley) even though Bourn is better. also because he expects us to move Swisher to 1B and Reynolds to DH and he says that reduces their value.
i really don’t get why Law cannot understand that positional value doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme. it is overall lineup value that matters. we replaced a poor OBP leadoff guy (Stubbs) with a good OBP leadoff guy (Bourn). we replaced a potential hole in our lineup at DH with Bourn as well. we can rotate a weak-hitting guy at the 9-hole to give guys a day off (Stubbs, Aviles, Marson, McG, etc. can all have days in the field while we give guys a day off at DH).
it is a lineup solidifying sign, yet Law doesn’t get why we would do it.
scotch doesn’t count as ammo sir.
I stopped following the indians when they traded away the second cy young guy, figured they wanted to suck…but now they have my attention. I’m actually considering getting the MLB package this year to catch their games (live in California)
Absolutely. As Harv mentioned, the Dolans have spent when they had money. But when you’re still near the bottom of the league in attendance after winning 90 games, you’re not going to have much money to spend.
Bourn has a way higher avg UZR over the last three seasons than Stubbs or Brantley. I also don’t see why having three guys who can play CF in your OF is a bad thing. I know, you’d rather have a big corner bat, but that wasn’t an option so why not go the other way?
Another random point- our OF looks rather similar to the A’s at this point (though not as deep) in that we both have a roster crowded with CFs. Not sure what that means.
He doesn’t get it because the pitching is extremely likely to keep us from contending, and paying ~27 million for Swisher and Bourn’s decline years when we might actually have cobbled that pitching together will make it tougher for us.
That said, they needed OFers badly, got a couple guys who can fill in well, and we’ll see how they respond to the future holes in the roster when they get there.
I like Santana batting in front of Swish. With the Yanks, Swish was always the protection guy.
Percy! as much as i can’t stand ESPN it makes no sense to be a sports fan and NOT be an insider. you get the cruddy magazine and all the access for like $20 a year. take the plunge.
Regardless of all the content, it just makes it better to be able to disregard those annoying little yellow “IN” things.
I upticked this one if it makes you feel better!
Law doesn’t get it because he is playing fantasy baseball. Positions with regards to lineup don’t matter as much in real life.
Sure, you want power from your corner infielders, but nobody bitched about Joey Votto hitting FOURTEEN homers last year because his OBP was .474!!!
Santana seemed to press to much in that role though, which is as much why I gave him that slot as anything.
Well now that all depends on the sort of battle you intend to fight, no?
there was a bunch of articles out a couple seasons ago that defense was the new market inefficiency. teams were not paying close enough attention to it and those guys were had cheap. enter IF defensive options like Hannahan/Kotchman previously and the A`s going all speed in their OF, etc.
this might be our next progression on that end.
I get that it makes it hard for us to budget pitching help. But, he panned it as a pure lineup move as well. That makes no sense.
hmm, fair enough. and, I apparently have a war-chest of beer.
Not related to this comment, but how do you think Fausto Carmona fealt when the Indians added Roberto Hernandez in 2007… I forgot we had a veteran Roberto Hernandez when Fausto was on the team
Story of Cle [blanks]’s every season. If they play to their potential…
I’ve read it over a few times now and see nowhere where he pans it as a pure lineup move. He mentions that we’re not using Bourn to replace a replacement-level guy, so the benefits won’t be as great, but he still says Bourn will be one of our best players, and will improve the offense and defense.
His issue is our pitching.
You kind of have to take what the market is offering too. No reason to pass on a player like Bourn because you’d rather have pitching that just isn’t there.
I agree with you on Santana. I don’t like him as much in the 4th as I do in the 5th or 3rd. If Asdrubal is playing well, leave him in 3rd, otherwise put Carlos at 3rd. I think we have a lot of flex to move around Kip, Asdrubal and Santana
Law is far from playing fantasy baseball. He looks at how the roster will be reconstructed now with Bourn quite fairly.
And you can’t ignore that you’re getting less value out of certain players when you sign a new one.
maybe i’m being too harsh on him, but he talked about how we didn’t need Bourn because we had CF’s and how signing Bourn makes Swisher and Reynolds less valuable (because of where they might play).
but, we are not getting less value out of Reynolds and Swisher’s bats just because of the position they play. the overall summation is that a weak hitter is planted onto the bench. that is a good thing.
Who is to say that we don’t move Stubbs (or someone else) for pitching? I get Law’s criticism, but the fact is this move improves the team overall and provides us the opportunity to make more moves.
Making Swisher and Reynolds less valuable can still result in improving the overall roster if it means moving our DH-by-committee (which would most likely provide us negative WAR) to the bench.
Saying he doesn’t quite fill a need is far different than saying we didn’t need him.
I’ve decided. Finally, after many years of being on the fence about subscribing to MLB.TV (being in California), I’m subscribing this season to watch this Francona team compete. Talk about an off-season turn-around 🙂
Sure, thats absolutely correct. Law mentions that Brantley or Stubbs may be on the trade block.
Small payroll teams also seem very interested in utility types that can play multiple spots. See Aviles and Theriot.
Their bats aren’t the only part of their games. We are getting less value out of those guys at 1B/DH instead of RF/1B. It won’t make much of a difference for Reynolds, as 1B to DH isn’t a big dropoff in positional value, and he’s only around this year, but when the next roster spot opens, it will be harder to fill a hole in RF than 1B now that Swisher has moved.
Things we won’t have to see this year:
142 games of Casey Kotchman
81 of Shelley Duncan
72 of Aaron Cunningham
66 of Jose Lopez
64 of Johnny Damon
Cameron over at FG’s gets it.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/indians-use-michael-bourn-to-fill-hole-at-dh/
Good memory and that’s hilarious… I wonder if there was a moment of panic about being found out when he saw Roberto Hernandez on the spring training invite list.
I’m assuming everyone knows about Bourn’s second half (or lasrt 2/3) from last season.
Okay – back to printing up playoff tickets – yay!?
…and remember how well Carrasco was pitching when he blew out his elbow…
Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet just read this looks like I’m a little late to the party! I liked Bourn as a FA but never thought he’d become an Indian. I never thought he’d last as long as he did as a FA either.
Yea I’m surprised Lohse and Bourn weren’t signed within the first few weeks of FA. Perhaps Lohse’s asking price has dropped but I’d still check into him.
has Swisher moved? I see Stubbs as a more part-time guy than Swisher, so I fully expect to see alot of Swisher in RF. so, long-term we are moving Swisher to 1B/DH, then that is regardless of this Bourn signing (many have suggested that may be his long-term role anyway).
my point is that positional value is bunk. the only thing that matters is overall lineup value. especially when many of these players can be put in multiple positions.
Guys like Rosenthal and Keri, who took the signing much more positively than Law, seemed to agree that while pitching remains a hole, the Indians took what the market was offering and in doing so were satisfying several other lingering concerns in the process (the need for an OFer goes back a while now, as does the persistent PR problem discussed ad nauseam on here).
My biggest concern with these signings is they have the right idea on paper, giving 4/5 year deals to fill the gap between the next wave of viable minor league talent being big league ready, but the backloaded salaries could definitely hinder trade potential when they’re ultimately ready to part with them. So of course I’m agreeing with their concerns about signing guys who’ll inevitably decline under these contracts. That said, the depth here in at least the next two years is a lot more substantial than the “depth” they’ve played up going into spring training the last couple years (see: Russ Canzler, Felix Pie, etc being guys we’re watching to make the 25-man last year.) A lot more questions are answered for a longer amount of time, and it’s definitely comforting.
(driving home from work at 3 am)
Ha! Got it!
What’s the over under on runs scored this season, with the new lineup? Last year the Tribe scored 667 runs, good for 13th in the AL. But it was a tale of 2 halfs; 385 runs Pre-All Star (7th) and 282 in the second half, good for 13th.
( Texas scored 808, Yanks 804, and DET 726 (6th).
Let’s set it at 726, just for the Tigers. Over/under?
Next is runs allowed….835. Remarkedly consistent s**kage: 414 Pre-Allstar, 431 after. Both were 13th in the league. Led the league in unearned runs too, at 79, even though CLE was only 5th in errors, at 96. So, when the wheels came off, they really came OFF. Shades of Fausto, except he wasnt on the mound.
I have NO idea where to set the number. 835 Runs allowed is just atrocious (DET gave up 670). And the only new starter is Myers.
Now,home runs. Tribe hit 136 last year. 78/58 Pre/Post All Star game. And it would have been way worse if Santana hadn’t started crushing the ball late. Everybody else just fell off a cliff, power-wise.
But…as for any good over/under in Feb, let’s arbitrarily set it at 163, which DET hit last year. ( And amazingly, over 50 HRs from last year are no longer on the team).
What say you?
Not trying to troll here, I’m as big of a tribe fan as you will find. But just to be clear John Hart was the GM when the tribe made the world series, not Shapiro. I also think Shapiro was a fantastic GM, but just wanted to get the facts right.
Francona has spilled the beans (and it’s all over Twitter) that the OF will be Brantley, Bourn, and Stubbs with Swisher at 1B (and filling in at RF to give the regulars rest), moving Reynolds to DH (1B when Swisher is filling in at RF or needing a day off). Only position spots open are 2 bench roles (another IF, another OF, maybe emergency 3rd catcher (very important IMO)).