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March 2, 2013WFNY Stats & Info: Cavs stats since the Memphis trade
March 2, 2013The Cavaliers have been a much improved team over the past two months. And while that’s fantastic news and great for the long-term development of this franchise, it presents an intriguing new scenario for 2013 NBA Draft analysis.
With the team’s current 15-16 run since Dec. 22, Cleveland now sits at No. 5 in the NBA Draft order (up from No. 7 on Wednesday night). That’s inching closer to what many fans expected in the offseason, but not necessarily what they thought just two months ago.
Last time I looked at the draft class on Jan. 6, I featured the top five guys contending for the top spot. There has been plenty of shake-ups since that point. But ultimately, with the Cavs trending toward the middle of the lottery, I thought it would be most helpful to now feature a group of “second tier” players.
In general, this is a bottom-heavy draft. There are relatively few projected All-Stars or MVPs – according to the majority of reports – while there is a very impressive amount of depth, especially toward the end of the first round. This is both good and bad for Cleveland in the next few months.
Just like last time, I’ll begin my analysis today by sharing another aggregate big board. But this time around, I’ve recruited the help of WFNY friend @ClevTA for his thoughts on a group of five “second tier” college basketball prospects. Then, we’ll both take our turns sharing our thoughts on some late sleepers — who also could end up in Cleveland.
The sources for this month’s aggregate big board ranking (the most recent three big boards out of these five are counted double in my aggregate ranking below, as that certainly seems logical):
Draft Express’ top 100 – updated on Thursday, Feb. 28
Most recent Cavs mock draft at No. 7: Anthony Bennett
Pro Basketball Draft – accessed on Thursday, Feb. 28
Most recent Cavs mock draft at No. 7: Shabazz Muhammad
ESPN Insider’s Chad Ford’s top 100 – accessed on Thursday, Feb. 28
Most recent Cavs mock draft at No. 6/7: Alex Len or Shabazz Muhammad (usually)
CBS Sports’ Jeff Goodman’s top 101 – updated on Tuesday, Feb. 5
NBADraft.net Aran Smith’s top 100 – updated on Sunday, Feb. 3
And here’s your aggregate big board top 36:
Rank | First | Last | FEB. | JAN. | School |
1 | Nerlens | Noel | 1.63 | 1.8 | Kentucky |
1 | Ben | McLemore | 1.63 | 4.8 | Kansas |
3 | Shabazz | Muhammad | 4.75 | 2.3 | UCLA |
4 | Anthony | Bennett | 5.00 | 6.8 | UNLV |
5 | Cody | Zeller | 5.63 | 3.5 | Indiana |
6 | Marcus | Smart | 5.88 | 14.8 | Okla. State |
7 | Alex | Len | 6.25 | 4.0 | Maryland |
8 | Otto | Porter | 8.38 | 9.8 | Georgetown |
9 | Michael | Carter-Williams | 10.75 | 11.8 | Syracuse |
10 | Isaiah | Austin | 12.13 | 12.3 | Baylor |
11 | Victor | Oladipo | 12.25 | Indiana | |
12 | Mason | Plumlee | 13.50 | 12.8 | Duke |
13 | Alex | Poythress | 13.75 | 8.5 | Kentucky |
14 | Rudy | Gobert | 14.25 | 15.0 | France |
15 | Trey | Burke | 15.75 | 19.3 | Michigan |
16 | C.J. | McCollum | 16.25 | 12.0 | Lehigh |
17 | Archie | Goodwin | 17.00 | 10.3 | Kentucky |
18 | Glenn | Robinson III | 18.63 | Michigan | |
19 | Kelly | Olynyk | 19.75 | Gonzaga | |
20 | James Michael | McAdoo | 20.00 | 15.5 | North Carolina |
21 | Dario | Saric | 20.88 | 16.8 | Croatia |
22 | Willie | Cauley-Stein | 22.38 | Kentucky | |
23 | Steven | Adams | 23.13 | 18.8 | Pittsburgh |
24 | Tony | Mitchell | 25.25 | 18.0 | North Texas |
25 | Jamaal | Franklin | 27.00 | San Diego St. | |
26 | Jeff | Withey | 28.25 | Kansas | |
27 | Sergey | Karasev | 32.14 | Russia | |
28 | B.J. | Young | 32.25 | Arkansas | |
29 | C.J. | Leslie | 32.38 | NC State | |
29 | Gorgui | Dieng | 32.38 | Louisville | |
31 | Lorenzo | Brown | 34.13 | NC State | |
32 | LeBryan | Nash | 37.13 | Okla. State | |
33 | Patric | Young | 37.25 | Florida | |
34 | Kentavious | Caldwell-Pope | 37.63 | Georgia | |
35 | Myck | Kabongo | 39.88 | Texas | |
36 | Doug | McDermott | 40.75 | Creighton |
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That’s a lot of information there. I’ve actually been tracking double the number of prospects as you see above via the big boards on those five sites. So I’ve literally been absorbing as much draft news as possible and pouring over Excel sheets. But all that results in the fancy table you see above.
Last time, as a reminder, I covered five of the above prospects. In quick bits, here’s a little update on each of these five fellows:
T-1 Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky, 6-11, 216, 4/10/1994
Noel’s season officially ended with his torn ACL on Feb. 12. Although his draft status has taken a bit of a hit, with advances of medical technology in 2013, he’s expected to make a full recovery and should likely be ready for the start of the 2013-14 season. Many still doubt his offensive game, but he’s an absolute game-changer defensively. Probably the ideal pick for the Cavaliers and their long-term needs.
T-1 Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas, 6-4, 195, 2/11/1993
The prospect who has made the biggest jump in his draft ranking this season, McLemore has cooled off a bit for the Jayhawks. He’s been oft-criticized of late for his lack of aggressiveness, not taking over offensively when Kansas needs him most. He’s still so smooth offensively that he won’t drop out of the top 5, but doubts finally are starting to creep into the picture.
3 Shabazz Muhammad, SG/SF, UCLA, 6-6, 223, 11/13/1993
I’m honestly surprised Muhammad is this high still. His draft stock has fallen quite a bit this season — much like the high hopes for Ben Howland’s UCLA team. The biggest long-term knock on Muhammad: He’s not big enough to be a SF, yet not really athletic enough to be a SG. He doesn’t have a natural defensive fit yet, so he’s likely going to fall closer to the 5-8 range eventually.
5 Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana, 7-0, 240, 10/5/1992
Zeller also has fallen quite a bit on the NBA fronts this season — despite similarly not having such a bad year at all. His game just doesn’t seem to project well to the NBA. Will he ever be an All-Star at the next level? That’s what scouts are debating right now, as he’s not exactly excellent at any one skill-set that will lead him to anything but a long career as a decent rotation player in the pros.
7 Alex Len, C, Maryland, 7-1, 255, 6/16/1993
Then, of course, there’s Len. He’s by far the most polarizing player in the top 10. I’d be about as shocked with him going No. 10 as him going No. 1. His impressively polished offensive arsenal and gigantic body frame make scouts salivate. But he really hasn’t proved much statistically. Many blame it on Maryland’s awful backcourt. He’s undoubtedly a very tempting prospect that could be a star or a bust.
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Now, on to the much-hyped scouting reports courtesy of @ClevTA. Again, thanks so much to him for helping out with this awesome writing:
4 Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV, 6-7, 239, 3/14/1993
Strengths:Â Effective near the basket and ranks in the top 10 nationally in scoring 74% of the time at the rim. Has an NBA body already with a 7-1 wingspan. For a big man, Bennett already has a nice outside shot (37% from three) and is one of the most polished offensive players in the draft.
Weaknesses: Although he has an NBA body, he is an undersized PF, measuring at only 6-7. He is a poor defender and gets lost a lot away from the ball. After a hot start to the season, Bennett has been fairly inconsistent in conference play versus better competition. In addition, there are knocks against him having a bad motor and not always exerting the best effort on defense.
Cavs Fit: With Tristan Thompson flashing solid potential at the PF spot and with the chance that Marresse Speights picks up his player option, the need for another PF isn’t there. Also, Bennett’s poor defensive effort isn’t a good fit with a team that lacks good paint defenders already. However, if Bennett is the best player available when the Cavs pick is up, there is a chance the Cavs could draft him and that would make trading Anderson Varejao easier.
NBA Comps: Larry Johnson, Patrick Patterson
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6 Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State, 6-4, 200, 3/6/1994Â
Strengths: Has an NBA body with great size for a PG. He is comfortable in the post and can overpower smaller PGs. With his size, he is also an excellent rebounder (5.5 per game) and can mix it up inside. Defensively, he has really quick hands and does a great job of creating deflections in passing lanes. Smart ranks in the top 10 in the country in steal percentage (5.25%). He’s more of a combo guard than pure PG and can play both guard positions if need be.
Weaknesses: He’s not a very good outside shooter (30% from three), yet likes to take lots of outside shots (4 three-point attempts per game). Settles for the jumper too much and isn’t very efficient offensively. Smart turns the ball over quite a bit (3.2 TOs per game) but that figure should improve as he learns to make better decisions.
Cavs Fit: Not much with Kyrie running the point. Has many similar traits as Waiters so would duplicate his strengths.
NBA Comps: OJ Mayo, Jarrett Jack
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8 Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown, 6-8, 200, 3/6/1993
Strengths: His biggest strength is how extremely smart he is and how he always seems to make the correct play. Last, Saturday versus Syracuse, Porter constantly made the correct decision at the free throw line against the Cuse’s vaunted 2-3 zone. Offensively, the player assigned to the free throw line against a 2-3 zone is key to effectively beating the zone. Porter manned that role and single-handedly dominated the game. In addition, Porter’s outside shot has gone from a weakness to a strength in one season. His 3pt% increased from 22.6% a year ago to 46.8% this season. This has led to a highly efficient offensive game that continues to improve.
Weaknesses: The biggest knock on Porter is his lack of athleticism. He is not a high-flyer so you probably won’t be seeing big-time dunk highlights on SportsCenter. Personally, I find this laughable and is one of my biggest pet peeves when it comes to NBA scouts. Give me a smart player who can score over a pure athlete who has no idea to score any day. Porter’s other weakness is a lack of strength. He has a slight frame and could use to put on more muscle.
Cavs Fit: Porter is quite possibly the best fit for the Cavs in the top 7 in my opinion. Cavs need a heady player who can score and defend at the SF position and Porter fits the bill.
NBA Comps: Shawn Marion, Nicolas Batum
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11 Victor Oladipo, SG/SF, Indiana, 6-5, 210, 5/4/1992
Strengths: Tremendously efficient player and ranks #2 and #3 nationally in TS% (70.5%) and eFG% (68.6%). Off the charts athleticism which helps him finish at the basket. Approximately 70% of his shot attempts come at the rim & he is the best finisher in the country. Top-notch perimeter defender and can lock up a PG, SG or SF. Oladipo ranks 19th nationally in steal percentage (4.82%) in the toughest conference in the country.
Weaknesses: Still developing his offensive game and can needs to prove he can be a consistent scorer. Not a good assist/TO ratio (1:1) and can become a better ball handler.
Cavs Fit: Oladipo would be a nice fit for the Cavs who lack any sort of perimeter defense and would immediately be the Cavs best wing defender. Although they drafted Waiters last year to play SG, their skills are quite complementary. Oladipo would also take pressure off Kyrie defensively not having to guard the best PGs in the NBA night in and night out. With Kyrie, Oladipo and Waiters on the floor at the same time, the Cavs would have one of the best transition offenses in the NBA. Excuse me while I wipe the drool off the floor.
NBA Comps: Russell Westbrook, Tony Allen
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13 Alex Poythress, SF, Kentucky, 6-8, 239, 9/6/1993
Strengths:Â Extremely athletic and very good around the basket (60% two-point FG %). Attacks the rim well and does a good job getting to the free throw line (top 100 FT rate %). Has a 7-1 wingspan and his length is an asset defensively. At a minimum, he has the potential to be a lock-down defender down the road in the NBA.
Weaknesses: Not a great scorer but has room to develop his offensive skills. He lacks ball-handling ability and isn’t your prototypical SF who can play on the wing. For most of the season with Kentucky, Poythress has not been as assertive as scouts would like him to be. However, since Noel has gone down with the torn ACL, Poythress has put up 18.5 points per game in the last two SEC games. It will be interesting to see if he continues to take control of the Kentucky offense down the stretch into March.
Cavs Fit: A good fit for the Cavs at SF, especially if they end up with a pick in the 6-10 range. Will most likely have the biggest upside at that point in the draft. Will probably never end up being an All-Star but has a chance to have a solid NBA career. At a minimum, he can help the Cavs biggest weakness as a perimeter defender.
NBA Comps: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Al-Farouq Aminu
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As a final segment, both @ClevTA and I will share a total of five sleeper candidates we kind of like later in the draft. The Cavaliers, of course, have 3 other draft picks this season. In addition to their own lottery pick, they could have the Lakers’ first-round pick if that team makes up enough ground to reach the playoffs. Then, if not the Lakers pick, the Cavs will still at least have Miami’s late first-round pick, along with Orlando’s second-round pick and their own second-rounder. So that’s going to likely be 3 picks in the 16-40 range in some way, shape or form. And accordingly, here are some sleeper candidates to keep an eye out for in this range:
19 Kelly Olynyk, C, Gonzaga, 7-0, 238, 4/19/1991
@ClevTA: He’s a rare college 7-footer who can score with his back to the basket. Olynyk is the most improved player in college basketball and is scoring 17.7 points per game after averaging only 5.8 points in limited minutes a year ago. He’s in the top five in offensive efficiency and is shooting 66% from the field and an impressive 39% from three-point territory. He still needs to add more muscle onto his frame but already has the offensive skills to succeed in the NBA. While I don’t expect Olynyk to be a superstar in the NBA, his ability to score around the basket combined with his outside shooting and 80% free throw shooting (and impressive 14.1 assist rate) allows him to have a good chance to have a long NBA career. A team in need of a center late in the lottery should take a shot at Olynyk.
25 Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State, 6-5, 205, 7/21/1991
Jacob: This is a unique player — He’s a natural SG, but playing mostly as a 3 for the Aztecs, he’s actually averaging an astounding 9.6 rebounds per 36 minutes over the last two seasons. Which obviously has intrigued me for the past 18 months. Franklin’s a hyper-athletic, defensively-sound wing who can pull off a highlight reel of a dunk anytime down the court. He still takes some wild shots and isn’t exactly that efficient offensively — 45.5% efficiency field goal percentage — yet that’s an improvable aspect of his game as he’ll easily carve out some type of niche in the NBA. He’s incredibly aggressive and active, while his defensive presence would actually be a nice fit as a backup for a team like the Cavs.
35 Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas, 6-2, 168, 1/12/1993
Jacob: Scouts love big point guards. Kabongo is not a big point guard. In fact, Chad Ford’s only listed weakness in his profile: “A bit undersized.” There’s also one more reason that Kabongo could be the biggest sleeper of 2013: Because of his peculiar 23-game suspension by the NCAA, mainstream fans haven’t seen much of this sophomore Canadian sensation. Since returning to action on Feb. 13, he’s been an apropos “Lone Star” in averaging 18.6 points, 4.4 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 51.8% shooting. He did make national highlight reels with his sensational 31-point heroics on Wednesday. He easily could blossom into an above-average starter in the league because of his big-time playmaking abilities. Previously ranked as a possible top-10 prospect, it’s amazing that Kabongo personally has done little wrong on the court besides a turnover-heavy freshman season.
38 Andre Roberson, SF/PF, Colorado, 6-7, 210, 12/4/1991
@ClevTA: Roberson is a rebounding machine for the Buffaloes and has put up 11 double doubles this season. He’s an extreme athlete and combined with a high motor, this has allowed the 6-7 Roberson to lead the country in rebounding this season (11.7 per game). His weakness is a lack of an offensive game but there is plenty of room in the NBA for a guy with Roberson’s rebounding/energy skill set (see Faried, Kenneth). Look for a team in need of good energy and rebounding off the bench to take a chance on Roberson in the early to mid-2nd round.
43 Allen Crabbe, SF, California, 6-6, 210, 4/4/1992
@ClevTA: Crabbe is a big-time scorer and has prototypical size for an NBA SG at 6-6, 210 lbs. Crabbe’s FG/3pt/FT percentage splits of 47%/35%/80% make him one of the best overall shooters in the draft. California is one of the nation’s hottest teams in the last month and Crabbe is the biggest reason for their emergence. The biggest reason he is not ranked higher by NBA scouts? You guessed it — lack of athleticism. I choose to ignore that and think that Crabbe will make an NBA team really happy if they can grab him late in the first round. Smart NBA teams like San Antonio have done a great job historically drafting good players like Crabbe late in the first round and ignoring the “lack of athleticism” label. Needless to say the Spurs have proven that highly skilled players are more important than focusing purely on athleticism. Keep an eye on Cal as they have the potential to make a sneaky, deep run in the NCAA tourney with help from Crabbe.
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Photos via USA Today Sports Media and Associated Press
53 Comments
Great stuff, both of you. The direction chosen by the Cavs will be an intriguing one. Lan would be a solid addition to this frontcourt. CLE doesn’t need him, but I would love Kabongo with that latter first-rounder if he’s still there.
Sorry, I say this to everyone, and it’s not really a big deal, but DraftExpress does not have a mock draft up right now. It says mock draft, but it’s not, because needs are not yet taken into account. It’s literally just transposing their big board onto the current draft pick landscape.
So basically, they don’t actually think we’ll take Anthony Bennett. That’s just whose ranking coincides with our draft position.
Very cool… Hope the bpa when we pick is not C or PG…
Thanks for the FYI. I obviously didn’t see that qualifier. Now, if only I could look back again at that page. … But my browser won’t let me because it looks like DE is battling some malware issue.
Why do you lump C in that category too? I’d personally think only PG. Curious to see your thoughts.
Tristan is likely a natural PF. Zeller’s not enough alone at C, unless you also think Andy is here long-term. Speights is a good rotation PF/C too, but his 2013-14 status is up in the air.
Olidepo or porter please
Otto Porter please.
Great article. One thing that has me excited – if Lakers squeak into the playoffs, we could have two top 15 picks. In a draft this deep, with a GM as creative as Grant, that would give us a lot of ammo to target a particular player.
As a UNLV and Cavs fan, I would be very wary of Anthony Bennet. He’s not going to take it, but he really could benefit from another year of school. Immature a lot of the time, takes not just plays off, but couple minute stretches off, was several games into conference play before he got his conditioning down, and plays virtually no defense. That jumper of his is so smooth, its easy to get enamored, but I could see him getting drafted and disappearing at the end of a bench for the next five years before “getting it”.
Also, Jamaal Franklin is a punk and it’d be hard to root for him even in a Cavs uniform. Unfortunately, I think you’re right, kid’s gonna be a solid NBA player.
Why did that guy get the 23-game suspension? Also, just say the Cavs get lucky and get the #1 pick, who do they take? McLemore, right?
Great in depth article. This draft is indeed very deep with “rotational players” even though it might be lacking some stars. Its a good thing we have our Star in place and happen to be looking for those “complimentary starters”.
As I’m watching the first half of VCU-Butler, I’m reminded what great defense can do for your offense. Granted, NBA PGs will handle the press worlds better than the Butler guards will, but I think what this Cavs team needs is some defensive help and a SF who can start at this level. Boom, that’s Otto Porter.
I think Porter would be an excellent pick for this Cavs team. And if we dont pick him, I would love Crabbe in round 2, I even like Crabbe if we do pick Porter. I’m assuming we won’t make all of the four selections because of a trade that may happen, but if we do have all of our picks, I would love to get Porter(our pick), Oladipo(LA pick), Kabongo and Roberson or Crabbe (2nd rounders). I have a feeling Oladipo will rise into the top 10, but hey it’s still early, I can dream
Accepting impermissible benefits and misleading the investigation.
I’d still personally lean toward Noel. But, here’s my overall take: Noel and McLemore are the top two guys in this draft. After that, it’s muddied.
Based on fit and guys I like, here are my next favorite four: Len, Muhammad, Porter and Oladipo. In some way, I see the Cavaliers likely getting 1 of those 6 with their first pick. In a extreme scenario, Poythress is my favorite sleeper.
Great point about a possible trade. Was just chatting with a friend about that after this article posted — I’d mark it down as highly unlikely the Cavs actually roster 4 new rookies next season.
This means that a Tyler Zeller-esque trade definitely could occur again. Which means the Cavs could find a way to nab whatever mid-first round guy they absolutely love. Two extra guys to keep an eye on in such a situation: Rudy Gobert and C.J. McCollum.
In my mind though, going back to your ideal scenario, I just don’t see Oladipo dropping that far, again. In my mind, if you assume the Cavs use all 4 picks, here’s my best-case scenario:
6-8 Nerlens Noel (again, he likely wouldn’t fall this far, but the Cavs also could get some lottery luck)
15-17 Alex Poythress (could easily still be there; about 30% odds LA makes the playoffs, otherwise we’re looking at the 26-29 range with Miami’s pick)
32-34 Allen Crabbe (continue to bolster bench scoring and gives you hopes that either him or Poythress will develop into starting SF)
36-38 Phil Pressey (a back-up point guard with intrigue, it’s more likely he’ll be available than Kabongo; this assumes no Livingston long-term)
I can’t remember a year that has so many Center prospects. Usually theres like 5 in the entire draft, this year there is 5 in the top ten.
Absolutely. A 5 who can anchor the D (Cavs are 28th in defensive efficiency) would go a long way to improving this team.
great stuff guys.
I like Porter. and I’d take Noel first. I think.
We could definitely use another star player, as we’ve already seen, just one is not enough. And that one was a MVP candidate, and not just your “regular” star.
I find it interesting that folks are down on C. Zeller yet I see he had the highest PER of the likely Top Ten picks. Victor is next highest, followed by Bennett and Porter. Good news for the Cavs, I would say…
Of course we could use another Star player. Most teams could definitely use another one. My point was that we are lucky we have ours in place, and even our “right hand man”. Because if you are a team looking for a star in this draft, like the Bobcats or Orlando, you’re going to be very disappointed.
Great point sir. That’s really the gist of this draft.
Guys I came back to this a 2nd time, just wanted to add this is one of the better pieces I’ve seen here lately and a good late-season primer. And just my two cents to that one post – there is NO WAY Olidapo is there past 10, let alone with the Laker pick.
I would think backcourt in general with Waiters as the SG starter and Ellington/Miles on the team (think they’re both under contract next year). No offense to Gee, but the Cavs biggest need is SF. The best SF to ever play for the Cavs ditched us with a 1-hour special on ESPN.
If Cavs end up with Porter, I will be thrilled. I think he will be a solid starting 3 in the NBA. Would love to see Irving-Waiters-Porter-Thompson-Varejao as starting five next year, with Livingston-Ellington or Miles-Gee-Speights-Zeller as second unit.
Thank you much. And I agree — I’d be shocked if he’s even there at 7 or 8.
So wait…I’m confused. Are any of these players actually good? (Besides Noel who obviously won’t make it to us without godluck.)
I cannot believe porter is ranked so lowly, especially after his past two-three weeks. heck, he’s put up 33, 22, and 28 over his last 3 games with great peripheral stats. he is also very young for his class. I see him or one of the bigs as our best fits.
Wishful thinking i guess. I would like to be solid at a position and not have to worry about it anymore. Do you think the C is the weakest part of the Cavs?
I haven’t really looked at Poythress, but his skillset sounds a lot like Alonzo Gee’s, doesn’t it?
I’m getting more and more on the Otto Porter train. I think he’s going to be an excellent pro and the kind of glue guy that the Cavs’ first unit is missing.
some good points above and great job rooting out a bunch of the guys they undervalue. a few points:
Shabazz – he is only 6’6″ but he has the same “reach” as guys like Otto Porter and is 20lbs heavier. that is why many (including myself) don’t think he’ll have issues at SF. And, he is the most gifted scorer in this draft.
Porter – I like Otto, really do. But, the reason Shabazz is ahead of him is that lack of athleticism. In the NBA, it does matter. Gtown has an efficient system, which Otto has proven to found his place in. He will make the correct plays. But, unless he lands in SA (or similar system), he is going to have to rely on creating some things himself in the NBA. I think he can do it, but just not to the same levels as a few other guys in this draft.
Bennett – really the one top guy who scares me because he’s a tweener in the mold of Derrick Williams, but he doesn’t seem as good as DW was either.
Oladipo – doubt we’d have him on the floor with Irving and Waiters all that much. who guards the stronger SFs? anyways, I agree he’s a top3-5 guy in this draft and someone is going to take him high.
Poythress – disagree with him being a top10 pick. ok, maybe someone takes him there, but I think it would be a mistake.
Olynyk – I get the desire for a guy like him, but he gets so pushed around by stronger guys, I think he has a very rough transition to the NBA. He gains some strength and gets put in the right system and he can be good.
Franklin – don’t you picture him as Tony Allen in the NBA?
and I’ll make sure I mention Patric Young as a possible early 2nd round selection.
I don’t think getting a 3rd PG assumes no Livingston. More like a Livingston protection plan 🙂
My “best” draft (trying to be reasonable with who will be there:
1st pick: Shabazz
I think I’ve covered him enough.
2nd pick: Glenn Robinson III (if LAL pick) — James McAdoo (if Miami pick)
Best complimentary fit and guy who excels off the ball.
3rd pick: Lorenzo Brown
Older prospect, but that’s what you get in the 2nd round this year. I would be pushing him as more of a PG, but possibly filling the Waiters role at SG with Livingston on the 2nd team for now.
4th pick: Patric Young
He’s stout. Can be the immovable object with his raw strength and he also has great jumping ability to help get past his non-premier height. I think he can be a defensive monster as a backup PF.
w/ Andy still on the team, I don’t think anyone can say that. SF has to be considered the weakest part of the team. still.
Porter will continue to rise up like Beal did last year. He had the same type of season and late rise. As long as he has a solid tourney.
This is where I show some shock over the fact that the nation’s leading scorer isn’t considered any better than a late 2nd round draft pick by any of the scouting services. I’m admittedly a Virginia Tech homer, but Erick Green really is a fantastic scoring point guard with decent size for a PG at 6’3″. I could see some negativity around him if he was an inefficient scorer and was just jacking up a ton of shots, but he’s shooting 48% FG, 39% on threes, and 82% FT. Those are excellent efficiency numbers for a guard, not to mention he gets to the free throw line over 8 times per game. Like Irving, he’s excellent at finishing after contact and hitting tough-angle shots while driving to the hoop. I would be more than happy to see the Cavs take a 2nd round flyer on him.
Short-term, yes, with Andy, C is not as much of a priority. Long-term, I think it is. And not depending upon Andy is also an ideal organizational proposition — he’s at 81 games played in 3 seasons.
Looking at 82Games, our actual largest PER differential by position is C (-3.4), not SF (-3.2): http://www.82games.com/1213/1213CLE5.HTM.
That’s a bit surprising to me, but not entirely. With Zeller/Speights/Tristan, defense is an afterthought. None of those three could be considered more than an average league defender, with Tristan likely being the best.
The Cavs — who overall allow 52.4% efg (30th) and 107.0 def eff (28th) — specifically permit 57.6% shooting inside 9-feet, which also is 30th in the league. League average inside 9-feet is 53.7%.
Andy’s an elite P&R defender, but even with him on the court, the Cavs lack any additional defensive enforcer down low.
I’d agree — I want the best player available. But a defensive-minded big man has to be a priority at some point in the long-term construction of this roster. It’s a big part of why the team defense is so poor right now.
I wouldn’t be mad with Erick Green. He does alot of things well though nothing outstanding. That, along with his age, is why he’s an early 2nd round guy.
I’d rather have Lorenzo Brown or Franklin, but Green would not be bad either. Again, this is a very deep draft with useful pieces all along the way.
agreed that frontcourt defense will definitely have to be addressed at some point as a priority. i’d still have it behind SF at the moment.
I can only share what my aggregate big board rankings say. … I honestly don’t know college basketball scouting as much as others such as likely yourself and @ClevTA know. But in my rankings, Green measured as a new-consensus mid-2nd rounder. Obviously, with a late-season boost, anything could be possible, but I’d likely be shocked if he goes any higher than maybe 25.
That’s fair. But in my mind, Noel is a better prospect than Porter. He’s the better available player. So if SF is 1A need and C is 1B need, then the tiebreaker would be made on Noel being available potentially. If he’s there for the taking, I still think that’s where the Cavs go. If I were them, I’d likely have him as No. 1 on a big board.
I definitely admit that I’m a homer, but what impresses me even more about Green is that he’s doing all of this with zero help from the other top 3 scoring options on the team. SF Jarell Eddie has shot .345 in 16 ACC games. SG Robert Brown has shot .297. C Cadarian Raines is shooting .477, low but not awful, but has only gone to the free throw line 13 times and has only hit 1 shot from there. Green has also had to play several games with walk-ons logging heavy minutes due to the team only having 8 scholarship players this season, and several have missed games with injury. I wish people knew how abysmally bad this Virginia Tech team is and just how special of a season Erick Green is having in spite of that. He sees double and triple teams trying to take him out of the equation every game, and he’s still putting up over 20 points per night with high percentages. I think you’re going with the typical knee-jerk reaction of seeing a high scorer on a bad team and you’re figuring that without elite athleticism, there isn’t much that he does at an elite level. That’s not true though…he is outstanding at drawing fouls and shooting jumpers off the dribble.
Agree with this… I think we need the most talent at SF and that it makes the most sense for this to be our top draft pick if there is someone there who fits the bill. I think you can find an excellent defensive center later in the draft (Withey, Dieng, Patric Young).
Right, and this wasn’t a shot at you, Jacob… hopefully it didn’t come across that way. It was a shot at the scouting services as I really don’t see why Green wouldn’t be a late first-rounder with his skill set.
Unfortunately he likely won’t be able to put his talents on display for long in the ACC tournament and not at all in the NCAA tournament. His teammates have just been too terrible to give Green even a fighting chance at showcasing on that level.
Thanks guys for the good words. I guess now that I’m back in town I should provide my 2 cents. If u can’t tell I’m an Otto guy with Oladippo, Mclemore and Noel right behind. At this stage in the Cavs progression I believe Grant has to start committing to finding smart players & defenders. As one who has played and studied the game my entire life, watching the lack of understanding of defensive rotations, help defense and of course one on one perimeter defense makes me ill with this Cavs team. Porter is not on the same level as Oladippo when it comes to defense but his long arms and his absolute smarts convince me he can and will be a good defender in the pros. And I certainly think he can create on his own. He gets to the basket (solid 44% FT rate) and can finish. Oladippo is on a level of his own defensively and though the Cavs don’t have a need at SG, his value defensively and on offensive transition alone makes me not care. They can easily make either Waiters or Oladippo a 6th man, ala Harden w OKC
I understand your points on Green and agree he’s been fabulous on an awful team. But if you are asking why he’s not ranked higher you said it yourself “scoring point guard”. He’s not a traditional PG and is more of an undersized combo guard. I compare him to Jodi Meeks at Kentucky. Meeks was scoring at will and has very similar FG/3pt/FT rates as Green and went late first and has been a serviceable scorer off the bench in the NBA. Green is also only 185 so he’ll need to add more size to withstand the NBA grind. I can totally see Green going late 1st to a team that needs scoring off the bench but hopefully that explains a little but why he’s not ranked higher.
hey, i probably need to see him more. i’ll try to make sure i catch another vatech game this season.
there’s a saying about big numbers on bad teams. even efficient numbers. what now has my curiosity is what his efficiency stats look like in the first half of his games as well.
yes, if you think he is BPA and you are drafting top5, then you draft BPA. especially if it lines up right with a need.
porter v. noel is an interesting debate. they are both in my 2nd tier of guys this year after McLemore, Smart and Shabazz.
Based on this comment and others, you clearly think pretty highly of Shabazz compared to most reports out there. His top-5 status is wavering: He occasionally will have a really solid game like he did against Arizona or Mizzou, but then he’ll show some rough signs against Cal/USC. Based on various reports, it does seem he is doomed for a Harrison Barnes-like drop closer to the 6-10 range in this year’s draft.
The Cal game is actually the game that solidified me on him as a prospect. His shot wasn’t falling, so he goes out and grabs 11 rebounds, goes hard to the rim to still get 13pts on 13shot despite only shooting 4/13 from the field.
I know he can and will score. The questions around him is that some question his ability to learn to play defense and fill up the rest of the stat columns. From what I have seen, he has bad footwork on that end, but he is willing. He’s also incredibly strong and quick. As long as he works hard, I think he will get there.
I do not get why scouts had him as top5 are wavering on him now. He is exactly as he was advertised. But, if that means he drops into the 6-10 range and the Cavs can select him there, then I am not complaining about it.
I’m mostly just looking for something to argue about on an annoying Monday in the office. You should check him out tomorrow night @Duke on ESPNU if you get it… 6pm CT. Duke is always excellent on defense, so it should be a good barometer. In their last meeting at VT, Green went for 22 on 8-14 shooting, 1-2 3FG, and 5-5 FT.
This team just can’t afford to draft another offense only guard. It doesn’t make any sense.
i’ll set it up on the DVR and watch it sometime this week.