April 24, 2014

NFL Free Agency Projection: Browns net Paul Kruger, Keenan Lewis, more

This isn’t news, but I found it interesting enough to post, just the same. It helps lay out a framework for how the Browns’ free agency could go and what kinds of contracts some of these guys will probably end up with when it’s all said and done.

Evan Silva of Rotoworld went and tried to project all of the 100 top unrestricted free agents. It puts them with a team and with a contract value. Slacker didn’t project guaranteed money though. (Yes, I’m kidding.)

Anyway, here’s his haul for the Browns.

Paul Kruger – 5 years, $60 million

Keenan Lewis – 5 years, $30 million

Brandon Myers (TE) – 5 years, $14 million

Shonn Greene (RB) – 2 years, $3 million

Brandon Gibson (WR) – 4 years, $16 million

Depending on how aggressive the Browns get on front-loading the cap dollars, that could put them in the $30 million ballpark added to 2013. That still leaves room for some extensions of existing players like Alex Mack and T.J. Ward, should the Browns want to do it.

As I said, this isn’t really news, but it is interesting to see one way it could shake out. In this case, this appears to be a clear improvement of the team. Seems like a lot of money for Paul Kruger based on the anecdotal box score evidence with and without Terrell Suggs in the Baltimore lineup. Still, you have to think the Browns have done their homework scouting his tape rather than just reading box scores.

Other rumored Browns targets like Cliff Avril and Mike Wallace ended up with the Colts and Dolphins respectively in Silva’s projection. Avril is being projected to score a 5-year deal worth $64 million. Wallace is projected to get $60 million over five.

Countdown to Tuesday at 4 PM, I guess.

[Related: Report: Browns, Colts Bidding For Kruger, More Browns Interest in Ellerbe]

  • BenRM

    Shonn Green seems out of place, unless he can play fullback.

  • Harv 21

    I’m (maybe foolishly) optimistic that the Browns have the right combo of people to make solid FA decisions. Banner seems very cautious about compromising flexibility with commitments that might blow up, and both Norv Turner and Ray Horton should be more than competent and experienced enough to know what they need for their schemes and recognize it when watching film of a player.

    Hard to believe they’ll get in a big time bidding war for anyone but Avril, given these coaches’ good histories in coaching players up.

  • Jaker

    Shefter says he thinks Wallace is the “only player” who will get 10mil per year left on the market. Peter King said that the Browns will have signed either Kruger or “most likely” Avril by Tuesday night. MKC said the Browns are recruiting players on Mars.

    My Point is that right now there are so many reports flying around that contradict each other, I don’t know what to believe. I’m hopping Shefty is right because the cheaper these ups are, the more we an sign. These deals seem fair, other than Kruger. Lewis and Myers seem worth that price. I think Greene will go where he has a chance to start, and I think we get Danario Alexander or Edelman before Gibson.

  • MrCleaveland

    I just took a look at the SI site. Peter King, not content to wait until something actually happens, has made a video in which he announces his list of — and I am not making this up — “POTENTIAL winners and losers in FA market.”

    I can’t bring myself to watch it.

  • Jaker

    *hoping not hopping
    *guys not ups
    *can not an

    I’m embarrassed.

  • LesFleursDuMal

    Agreed. If we were to sign any RB, it would be a shifty 3rd down guy and not a lesser version of T Rich.

  • Harv 21

    “OK, whatcha got for us Pete … whaddaya mean nothing? Here’s what I got for you, it’s called a deadline.”

  • mgbode

    don’t forget to subtract ~$10mil of our cap money for draft picks (depends on if/how we move around etc.).

  • woofersus

    Shonn Green is for insurance because a feature back is that important to Norv Turner’s offense. I don’t know if it will really happen, but that would be why.

  • mgbode

    i wouldn’t be upset with that haul, but we’d be overpaying Kruger. I’d prefer to let the Colts get him and us get Avril. Also, I’d really like to add an OG.

  • MrCleaveland

    “But, boss, all I’ve got is meaningless guesswork with no basis in fact and zero shelf life.”

    “Run it, King!”

  • Harv 21

    this prompted me to read King, who pulls up some interesting stats on Avril. Basically saying that pass rushing production-wise the last 3 years (sacks/hits/pressures) he’s a little worse than now-released John Abraham, albeit younger, and not at the elite rusher level.

  • BenRM

    Given Shonn Green’s past few seasons, I’m not sure I’d use him and “feature back” in the same sentence.

  • The_Matt_Of_Akron

    “If you sign Shonn Green, you better be sure you have a feature back too.”

  • http://twitter.com/GreatestHurley Jason Hurley

    I hope when it’s all over I don’t miss Heckert.

  • Harv 21

    I miss him already. Or at least the new confidence that the GM would not screw the pooch on draft day. This spring’s anxiety seems more Browns fan normal.

  • mgbode

    i do like the PRI table he put there. Avril is a 2nd tier pass rusher, which is the best you can hope to get on the FA market. I do wish he was a little better against the run.

  • TSR3000

    I think you can edit your comments.
    Edit: Yes. You def can.

  • JK

    Real OGs are hard to come by these days…

  • mgbode

    i’m reading more teams are interested in Vasquez. if he ends up pricing himself out of our market, then SD’s other FA OG (Tyronne Green) isn’t a bad cheap alternative.

    Geoffrey Schwartz is the under the radar guy to keep an eye on (he’s been good in limited action, plus we’d have Schwartz^2 on the right side).

  • Kildawg

    Schefter from Fox Sports is pretty accurate, not too much big-city bias.

  • woofersus

    He may not have been setting the world on fire, but he had over 1000 yards each of the last two years and that’s behind a terrible offensive line and with a dysfunctional passing game. Pretty durable too. Doesn’t matter at this point, and I would rather just stay with what we’ve got anyway, but I see no reason to think he won’t be an effective threat next year.