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May 20, 2013Plain Dealer columnist Terry Pluto dropped this little nugget in his Sunday notes column:
[Noel] is a project, especially on offense. He’s a No. 1 pick who may never make an All-Star team. That’s why certain teams may be willing to trade the pick.
Suppose the Cavs end up with the No. 3 pick. They could offer their entire draft (all four picks) for No. 1, and that team could still draft someone such as Otto Porter at No. 3.
Noel is ideal for the Cavs, a team on a mission to improve its defense. He blocks shots, 4.4 per game. He can rebound, 9.5 per game. He influences the game defensively with a 7-4 wing span.
What did the Cavs talk about all season? Improving the defense. Add Noel into the middle of the lane and suddenly there is help for Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters, who both have trouble on defense. Some of those layups the Cavs yielded a year ago will be blocked or missed at the rim.
This is somewhat surprising. Given Noel’s ACL injury and that he won’t play until the middle of the season, one would figure the Cavs might be cool on the Kentucky center. While I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cavs won the lottery and took Noel at the top spot, it would shock me to see the Cavs trade up. With Mike Brown back on board, the Cavs are looking to make a playoff push next season. Having them package all four picks to take a player (an offensive project) who might miss half the season (or at least a significant chunk of it) doesn’t seem to jibe with the prevailing “playoffs or bust” attitude.
That being said, Cavs’ GM Chris Grant has a being aggressive on draft day. Both Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson were “outside the box” picks that threw many a mock draft into chaos. And last season Grant packaged their late first and early second round picks to move up to draft Tyler Zeller. So it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Grant made a bold move on draft day.
The draft order will be determined this Tuesday during the NBA Draft Lottery. Nick Gilbert will represent the Cavs at the lottery for the third straight year.
[Related: Talking myself into Mike Brown]
41 Comments
Ben it’s not surprising it’s a Cleveland team. This kind of thing wreaks of desperation to me. Defense, defense, defense, defense…we gotta have it, must have it…talk about a central focus dominating everything you do, wow. The scary thing is has the offense really been that good? Not to me. For this reason you’d think a more all around player would be more desirable but who knows. A large part of me hopes a trade like this happens that way when the inevitable “what happened, what went wrong?” occurs this will be one of those moments clearly identifiable.
The Cavs are willing to trade for the #1 pick or its something Terry Pluto would do?
Personally, I don’t see a reason to trade potential assets to move up a couple spots to grab a Center coming off an ACL injury who weighs less than the average 2 gaurd in the NBA.
We got enough assets. Why not? I love Noel. He has tremendous defensive upside and that’s exactly what we need. I remember around the time most of everyone was healthy and Dion hit his groove we were ranked near top 10 in offense so I’m not worried about offense. I think right now we’re in a position where we can let our offensive upside grow and try to get someone who can play defense.
Have you seen him play?
Agreed. This would be such a bad move for them right now. We have a chance to solidify all 5 starting positions in this draft and add a depth player or two who can hopefully turn into solid bench guys. (I’m assuming we get a SF and a Center in the 1st).
Instead, we take the risk of the injured guy while giving up all of our flexability in the draft? If it wasn’t Chris Grant, I would agree. Then again, I can already see the press conference, ‘We felt now was the time to make the move, so we traded all of our draft assets for a guy who is hurt. We didn’t learn from the Andrew Bynum proposal.’
Reminds me of the Browns ‘draft’ picture, ‘eh screw it, take the old guy.’
Nab Otto Porter and call it a day
Why not? Alonzo Gee is why not…
Porter plays defense. He’s quite literally a perfect fit for what we need right now. A starting small forward who can score, handle the ball, and plays defense. His game reminds me of someone, not on his level but, similar in their strengths.
Yep. Just think it’d be a huge risk where the Cavs are in their rebuild to take a chance on a guy with that small of a frame for the position he plays. 206 lbs? So he needs to add around 30 lbs while rehabbing from knee surgery. I see more value in taking one of the wing players with the first pick and packaging the other 3 to move up for a guy like Steven Adams (NBA body, tons of potential) the way they did for Zeller last year.
They can get Zeke Marshall in the second round. Greatest shot blocker in MAC history.
For me Noel is far from a certainty at #1 to justify trading away all of the picks you have painfully accumulated. I just think it’s a horrible idea. Trading away multiple draft picks for one player is something Miami or San Antonio can afford to do not a Cleveland. I’d prefer they use those picks heck I’d even be fine with packaging a couple to move up from #19 but not trading them all for one guy.
We don’t even know they may end up with the #1 pick. If they did I’d be looking to trade down though. Just my opinion.
24 games before suffering a serious injury would make me pause every time. Heck I was cautious about Irving and while he’s been absolutely 1,000x better then I ever dreamed he does have injury issues. So between his injury, lack of games played, age and an obvious physical immaturity I’d be nervous. The kid has tremendous athleticism and ability but compare him to the other NBA big men and you can’t tell me he’s going to need at least one entire contract just to mature. This team cannot afford a slightly advanced Bismack Biyombo IMO.
Kind of my thinking as well. I like Goebert in addition to Adams for that second draft pick in the first round. Good chance neither would last until #19 which would require a move but I wouldn’t have an issue if it happened.
TWO things:
1. Nobody knows where the Cavs will be picking so who knows what they would have to give up to get the #1 pick (maybe they even get the #1 pick).
2. If Noels is THAT good (and i honestly don’t know) then I think it’s a great move by the Cavs. This is how you make a true stride. I don’t want mid-first round picks – i want studs.
Does anyone remember how San Antonio got really, really good? That’s right, they had their All-Star center miss the whole season so they could amass the worst record in the league to draft a dude named Duncan.
It’s the same type of situation: get a guy who will help you in the future but not now, so that you can lose games without actually “tanking”.
I think a better question is: what if the Cavs get the #1 pick? do they trade DOWN and pick up stuff for next year, or other players? wouldn’t that be a nice situation….
I just wonder how the fans would react if the Cavs obtained the 1st. pick, throught the lottery or trade, and used it to draft Otto Porter? Will the fans treat him as another “reach”?
I think your making a mistake using Duncan as the yard marker for Noel. Duncan was unique wise beyond his years and had the physical tools as well, from day one.
I said before if I got the #1 I’d look to trade down.
I don’t think he’d be as much of a reach as a Thompson and certainly not a Waiters but there would be plenty of questions and second guessers. This is the problem with this draft like last years really no real certainties. I mean if people had questions about Anthony Davis who was the clear #1 a year ago just look at this draft. I said it before it’s terrible circumstance to have so many top draft picks and such a poor or I should say lack of immediate impactful talent to choose from as a pool.
Whoever picks Noel is entering themselves into the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes. A bottom-3 team – unless you go crazy in free agency, which remains to be seen – adding an unavailable Noel isn’t getting out of the bottom of the lottery.
The thought of Noel turning a corner with Wiggins on the roster, though? I know it’s a fantasy, but that would be interesting as hell to see.
That’s a good point re: his weight. You can’t play down low at 206 pounds. And adding weight usually does a number on your joints. Random factors, but still, he’s so much of a project.
I’m not trying to compare the players – just the situations. Noels is definitely no Duncan. I’m just saying that the Cavs could tank again without being obvious. Frankly, I don’t like that, but it IS an option.
I think this Porter kid looks like a good fit. And, again, I ask the question: what do the Cavs do if they get the #1 pick at the lottery?
that’s the point i was trying to make. maybe this is a two-year event.
I don’t remember who else SA had besides Robinson but clearly Duncan elevated that team. It’s just a shame that there isn’t a Duncan, Paul, LBJ, Wade, Carmello or Durant in this draft or last years.
I don’t think you are going to have to worry about tanking next at this point.
As for your question I said I’d trade it which means they’ll most likely use it and probably use it on Noel.
LOL
The reason why it’s so rare to trade a top pick is that when he is substantially better than the alternatives, no one wants to give him up; and when he’s not, it’s not worth the added picks. In this draft, where there is no “cliff” after the first couple picks, and picks in the teens could be as good as the fourth or fifth pick, it makes even less sense to trade for a top pick.
Furthermore, the Cavs are on a mission to improve on everything, not just defense. Sure, Mike Brown would love a shot blocking machine in the middle, but if the frontcourt is Noel, Varejao, TT, Gee and Casspi, where exactly is the offense coming from?
Sure they COULD trade up and take the #1 pick. They certainly MIGHT do almost anything. I hate this part of the offseason when there is no news and columnists churn out speculation about nothing much. It’s a little silly.
However, his main point is that he thinks Noel is ideal for the Cavs. I disagree. He’s very young and raw, and despite his athleticism and length he’s not big enough to play center in the NBA. Zeller and Thompson got pushed out of position too much last year, to the point that people harped on Zeller (who weights around 25 lbs more than Noel and is over an inch taller) was too skinny for his position. And that’s with Zeller in fantastic shape. His body fat was like 6% or something. Noel is a project that needs to gain at least 20lbs and learn any offense at all, and will still be undersized. He won’t be recovered from his injury until the middle of next year (and that’s average – Derrick Rose showed us it might take longer) and then he’ll be a 2 year developmental project like Anthony Davis was. The Cavs won’t get a real benefit from him until the season AFTER next at best. If this was year one of the rebuild maybe, but there are more complete players available with great defensive abilities who are ready to contribute.
I understand that the great quandary of the NBA draft is whether to select based on projected ability or to take somebody whose warts you already know. In this case though, I think it’s too big a gamble, and a conscious deferment of success.
I don’t know why anyone is surprised at this. You’re smoking crack if you think the Cavs are bringing 3-4 more draft picks onto this team this year. Its not going to happen. Will they trade for the number one pick? I don’t know. But its idiotic to think that a team that is already too young is going to get younger. We MIGHT bring in two players, MAYBE. But I would not be surprised at all if we only bring in one because we do not need and should not want 3-4 more rookies. The Cavs are shooting for the playoffs this season (the suggestion that they should lose again is RIDICULOUS. At some point u need to start winning games. The tanking is over). So I’m not sure they’d use this on Noel but I would not be surprised if they traded all of their picks to move to first. They should NOT bring in more than two rookies this year. Only Cleveland focuses on adding more and more and more and more draft picks. STOP!! (Rant over).
He fills the need though. It’s kind of how the Browns traded up 1 spot to secure Richardson. I can’t fault a team for seeing a player, wanting that player, and making sure we get him. It shows some cahones.
Thx, glad someone pointed out the obvious. They will not draft 4 rookies, and Grant accumulated the picks to make trades. He may swap a second rounder and the 19th overall to grab someone at, say, 13 or a decent veteran. But 4 picks means he must trade something, and if nothing good comes up he’ll dump the seconds for picks next year.
Taking a flier on a 61 year old (25!?) Oden would also nab you a guy to clog the lane while not wrecking your draft.
If they did that they would be stupid… The Cav’s would be better off trading thier picks for a solid free agent who they know can add to the team rather then gamble on a new now crippled player…
I’m with you, woof… I just don’t like Noel very much as a prospect. At least Anthony Davis has some solid offensive abilities to build on and a jump shot that has good form. When I watch Noel, I see an extremely athletic guy, but he seems like a young Chris Andersen to me.
Interesting the reaction that this got… I have to assume you’re a bit of an Akron homer because of your name, but you didn’t say anything that’s incorrect. Marshall is a project, but someone is absolutely going to take him in the 2nd round because of his size and shot-blocking ability. I am assuming he really is the #1 shot blocker in MAC history as well. If the Cavs ended up using a first and second round pick to move up to #1 and still had their other 2nd round pick left, I would have no problem with them taking a chance on Zeke Marshall, especially if they took Porter or another wing player with the #1 pick.
drafting Noel = putting ourselves in the Wiggin’s sweepstakes. that is both good (he’s the best prospect since Dwight) and bad (another year of 20 something wins).
(Noel shouldn’t play until the allstar break – no reason to rush him and potentially damage his career)
If Cleveland gets the #1 pick or if they feel like they can still get the guy they like with whatever pick they get from the lottery, would you be okay with the Cavs acting like the Browns and trading a couple of their picks for (probably) better picks next year? For example, the Cavs trade their mid-first round pick to the Raptors for their unprotected first round pick next year? Okay that probably wouldn’t happen, but I would definitely be okay with that if it did.
Didn’t they also want to do this for Davis? I guess it seems more feasible this time around b/c Noel isn’t as “sure a thing” as Davis was/is.
Great point. People very often confuse the NBA draft for being like the NFL draft.
Absolutely simply because there are once again no sure things in this draft. That and I really don’t see this team, as it stands this moment, winning many more games then a year ago which means their own pick will most likely be in the lottery again.
Reportedly but there were alot of teams interested for the reason you said: Davis was far more of a certainty then is Noel. That’s why NO wouldn’t trade down.
23rd in offensive efficiency, so no, the offense hasn’t been that good. The hope is that Irving stays healthy, and Waiters takes the next step, and you can cover the offense that way.
Also, I’m not a fan of taking a guy just because he is well-rounded. The NBA has become a league where unless you’re the star, you need to find your niche to help your star out. You need guys who excel in at least one area. That’s not to say I don’t like Porter, I think he’s a fine player, and he can seemingly shoot and play enough defense (and I think Brown will be able to get a ton out of him on that end of the court). But if he’s relegated to a 3 and D guy, well you can get that a lot cheaper than the #3 overall pick.
You don’t see this team winning more games? Obviously the injuries are a concern at this point, but Irving, Waiters, Thompson should all continue to grow, and if Brown can put together a decent enough defense, one more top prospect can be enough to get them over the hump.
As a Kentucky alum, and die-hard Cleveland sports fan, this would be a dream come true!
There’s nobody available in this years draft that’s worth betting the farm to sign.
Noel blocks 4.4 shots per game against college competition, but how many will he end up blocking when the competition is bigger and stronger than he is?