April 24, 2014

Browns fans predict the team will go 9-7 in 2013

231-20130726-0595_600Browns fans are an optimistic bunch, at least collectively. When you add up the results of our survey, it yields a 9-7 prediction. (Game-by-game results are listed below.) That’s probably a bit too confident for my tastes. I’ve said all along that eight wins should be the goal for the team if they are able to stay healthy and get better from last season. So let’s break it down a little bit, because I think there are some flaws in the logic of Browns fans this season.

First of all, let’s talk about the Bengals and Ravens. I think Browns fans have a pretty healthy respect for both teams. Only about 16% of Browns fans predicted the Browns could beat the Ravens in week two and about 45% said the Browns could beat them in week nine. Meanwhile, Browns fans think they can beat the Bengals at home week four at a nearly 60% rate, but lose in Cincy after the bye week with about 40% of Browns fans saying the Browns will win. I think this year those numbers are flipped. I think the Bengals are improved over last season and I think the Ravens are going to be running uphill. 

Pete Prisco’s predictions at CBS were pretty smart here, I think. Prisco has the Bengals winning the division, and while I don’t know about the Bengals against the Steelers, I’m pretty sure he’s right about the Bengals finishing ahead of the Ravens. We’re talking about a Ravens team that lost Dennis Pitta to injury, Anquan Boldin to trade, Ed Reed to free agency, Ray Lewis to retirement, Cary Williams to free agency, Dannell Ellerbe to free agency, and you know, Paul Kruger to free agency.

I think we all know better than to doubt Ozzie Newsome, but simultaneously we’ve learned from the Steelers over the years that the Super Bowl hangover is real. It just wouldn’t surprise me if it takes Ozzie this year and next to get the Ravens back into shape to the point that they can be considered better candidates to win the division than the Bengals.

Another surprise for me? Browns fans are pretty confident that the team will beat a Kansas City team with Andy Reid at the helm and Alex Smith under center. KC was one of the teams in the league that I think was universally regarded as an underperformer. Now that they have Reid, Smith, and tight end Anthony Fasano to go along with Jamal Charles and Dwayne Bowe, it’s certainly reasonably to assume they can be a much improved team. Certainly improved enough to make me question a near 80% confidence that you can give the Browns a W that week.

Other than that, most of it is alright. I think the Browns have far lower than a 91% chance against a Miami Dolphins team that added via free agency this season. I think the Browns have a better than 17% chance against the Ravens in week two for the reasons laid out above. The prediction for the Browns against Minnesota is about right. I have no idea what to expect there because Adrian Peterson is such an X factor kind of player. Also, I think the Browns can and probably should beat Buffalo this year, but 95% is a bit too confident. 4% against the Packers is too shy.

As always, we’ll see very soon. Let me know what else you see in the predictions.

Sun, Sep 8 vs Miami 1:00 PM
Prediction: Browns Win!
Confidence?: 91.03% of Browns fans say the team will win

Sun, Sep 15 @ Baltimore 1:00 PM
Prediction: Browns Lose!
Confidence?: 16.6% of Browns fans say the team will win

Sun, Sep 22 @ Minnesota 1:00 PM
Prediction: Browns Lose!
Confidence?: 49.67% of Browns fans say the team will win

Sun, Sep 29 vs Cincinnati 1:00 PM
Prediction: Browns Win!
Confidence?: 59.74% of Browns fans say the team will win

Thu, Oct 3 vs Buffalo 8:25 PM
Prediction: Browns Win!
Confidence?: 95.4% of Browns fans say the team will win

Sun, Oct 13 vs Detroit 1:00 PM
Prediction: Browns Win!
Confidence?: 65.58% of Browns fans say the team will win

Sun, Oct 20 @ Green Bay 4:25 PM
Prediction: Browns Lose!
Confidence?: 4.16% of Browns fans say the team will win

Sun, Oct 27 @ Kansas City 1:00 PM
Prediction: Browns Win!
Confidence?: 79.43% of Browns fans say the team will win

Sun, Nov 3 vs Baltimore 4:25 PM
Prediction: Browns Lose!
Confidence?: 45.51% of Browns fans say the team will win

BYE WEEK

Sun, Nov 17 @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM
Prediction: Browns Lose!
Confidence?: 40.0% of Browns fans say the team will win

Sun, Nov 24 vs Pittsburgh 1:00 PM
Prediction: Browns Win!
Confidence?: 68.93% of Browns fans say the team will win

Sun, Dec 1 vs Jacksonville 1:00 PM
Prediction: Browns Win!
Confidence?: 96.28% of Browns fans say the team will win

Sun, Dec 8 @ New England 1:00 PM
Prediction: Browns Lose!
Confidence?: 8.97% of Browns fans say the team will win

Sun, Dec 15 vs Chicago 1:00 PM
Prediction: Browns Lose!
Confidence?: 38.29% of Browns fans say the team will win

Sun, Dec 22 @ New York Jets 1:00 PM
Prediction: Browns Win!
Confidence?: 93.65% of Browns fans say the team will win

Sun, Dec 29 @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM
Prediction: Browns Lose!
Confidence?: 41.14% of Browns fans say the team will win

  • WayneEmbrysKids

    Wow. 9-7?

  • architrance

    Browns fans to be disappointed in 2013.

  • MrCleaveland

    9-7 ????

    We’re nuts.

  • Scott Johnson

    The way I’m looking at it: They went 5-11 last year, IN SPITE OF Pat Shurmur costing them a couple games. I’m confident this team at least on paper, is a significant upgrade. This puts my expectations at a baseline of 8-8, though I think with some luck they can do better. I don’t think this is crazy or wildly optimistic. Somebody talk me down.

  • Harv 21

    great stuff

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    That ‘Bills 95% confidence’ game is the one that’s jumping off the page over here.

  • Ezzie Goldish

    Should have included a comparison to last year…. where the fans picked 5 wins. Hmm…

    http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/2012/04/poll-results-what-are-the-browns-chances-week-by-week-for-2012/

  • Ezzie Goldish

    Also, pretty easy to break these out into categories:

    Very confident Ws: MIA, BUF, JAX, @NYJ
    Pretty confident Ws: DET, @KC, PIT
    Toss-ups: @Min, CIN, BAL, @Cin, @Chi, @Pit
    Losses: @Bal, @GB, @NE.

    Hard to argue with the first group or last group. Pretty easy to argue for the second group (disagree with you on KC). And reasonable to think all those tossups can go either way.

    If they go 4-0 against that first group, 0-3 against the last, 2-1 against the 2nd, and 3-3 against the third, that’s 9 wins. Not unreasonable.

  • Ezzie Goldish

    5 wins last year.
    + (?) Shurmur effect/close games effect – reversion to normal
    + cream puff home schedule
    + relatively easy schedule in general
    + Chud/Turner/Horton/growth/depth effects
    - Dawson

    Agreed.

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    talk you down? sure.

    still unproven QB.
    still unproven RB.
    possibly disastrous d-backs.
    unpredictable WRs.
    no TE.
    questionable second level run D.
    offense and defense both learning new systems.
    rookie head coach.

  • Hopwin

    You should write a post comparing and contrasting Chudz resume against Pat’s. Very superficially they seem to be eerily similar to me.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    C’mon man!

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    I’m sticking with 6-10 since today hasn’t been a “regular” day. Had it been 7-9.

  • http://brian23.com Brian

    mike brown is a defensive coach so i expect they will be better on that end

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Craig Lyndall

    Love you Harv!

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Craig Lyndall

    I’m feeling the Bills could have a turnaround type of year. New coach. New QB. Probably an underachiever due to both those variables a year ago.

    Same way I feel about KC to some degree, except KC had even more existing potential, I think.

    People are still voting, but I believe there were 455 responses when I compiled this morning.

  • Tim K.

    Winner.

  • Garry_Owen

    Go Buckeyes!

  • Garry_Owen

    Despite the fact that the Eagles got Chip Kelly and the Browns didn’t, I’m pretty sure we’re collectively smoking crack.

    I mean, come on! 9-7? This season CLEARLY has 10-6 written all over it.

  • Garry_Owen

    Yes. I think this break-down is very accurate. I would modify it, though, to delineate how it is that I think Browns fans collectively think:
    3 Categories:
    1. We will win.
    2. We can’t win.
    3. Is there a chance?
    For the Browns fan, if the answer to #3 is “yes,” then we mark it down as a predicted win. God* laughs at us for this, and thus sends the never-ending beatdown of heartbreaking losses until we get the point.
    * Bless me, Father, for I have sinned.

  • Garry_Owen

    Yes. I think this break-down is very accurate. I would modify it, though, to delineate how it is that I think Browns fans collectively think:
    3 Categories:
    1. We will win.
    2. We can’t win.
    3. Is there a chance?
    For the Browns fan, if the answer to #3 is “yes,” then we mark it down as a predicted win. God* laughs at us for this, and thus sends the never-ending beatdown of heartbreaking losses until we get the point.
    * Bless me, Father, for I have sinned.

  • Garry_Owen

    We obviously haven’t gotten the point yet.

  • Garry_Owen

    We obviously haven’t gotten the point yet.

  • Harv 21

    Back atcha. Love all of you.

  • Garry_Owen

    Point of order on this whole percentage thingy as an indication of “confidence”:

    The fact that 98.something percent of fans predicts a win against a certain team does not mean that the fans are 98.something percent confident that the team will win. My hunch is that fans collectively gave the benefit of the doubt in many of these cases, but this should not be confused with “confidence.” For example, I know I picked them to beat the Chiefs, but I am not at all “confident” that they’ll actually beat the Chiefs. Browns fans may think alike on this thing, as so many ants chasing after that sticky Jolly Rancher dropped in the dirt by a screaming toddler, but this certainly does not mean that we think this thing “confidently.”

    That is all. Carry on.

  • Garry_Owen

    Only if such post can mention, frequently, “Bob Lamonte.”

  • Vindictive_Pat

    I think everyone is assuming that CJ Spiller will be injured by week 5. I think that’s reasonable, no? Right? Maybe?

  • MrCleaveland

    Slow day, eh?

  • Garry_Owen

    Fast brain.

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    that’s a good sample size.

  • maxfnmloans

    it’s going to be tough for Andy Reid to call plays if his laminated card is smeared with BBQ sauce

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    if the browns are 9-6 going into the last game and lose at pittsburgh and miss playoffs.. well that’s just a new special hell awaiting us.

  • maxfnmloans

    I say we go 2-4 in the division

    we will win one out of DET, BUF, MIA (maaaaaaybe 2)

    Confident in JAX and NYJ

    so I’m seeing 5, maybe 6 depending on the health of the rosters when we play the Lions and Buffalo.

    I want to say 7-9 or 8-8, but I just can’t see it. However, if Weeden turns into 2007 DA, hoo boy this could be a really fun year (it’s still pre-season, let me enjoy my psychosis)

  • maxfnmloans

    would you rather make the playoffs and then gak up a large lead to Tommy Maddox?

  • Sam

    So the Bills and Chiefs have “existing potential” and will have “turn around years” with new coaches and unproven quarterbacks, but these will also be the reasons to keep the Browns in suck-mode? We need at least some optimism!

  • Garry_Owen

    Romeo Crennel agrees wholeheartedly.

  • Hrd53

    So i have had a few beers but it actually looks like the fans predicted an 8-8 finish.

  • Kevin B

    Of course, 95% of Browns fans voting for a victory doesn’t mean that Browns fans think there’s a 95% chance of victory. It means that 95% of Browns fans who voted think that there is at least a 51% chance of victory.