Casual Friday night lights, rye whiskey, decaf, and 8th grade dances – WFNY Podcast – 2013-08-16
August 16, 2013Indians’ Pestano sends signed shoes, baseballs to three-year-old fan
August 16, 2013In a season that largely has been better than expected, it’s hard to tell that based only on the vitriolic commentary about the Cleveland Indians.
Yes, of late, among the variety of possible scapegoats, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera has been the most prominent and deserving punching bag. The 27-year-old former All-Star has been all over the place this season and is mired in a rough six-week slump.
While now-released Mark Reynolds and closer Chris Perez also have taken turns as the enemies in the fans’ eyes, the criticisms of one player just don’t sit well with me.
This fellow 27-year-old has never been an All-Star, but deservingly could have been one over the past few years. He’s also having his best offensive full-season in the major leagues, as demonstrated by his 29 doubles, 60 walks, career-high batting average and 129 OPS+.
This player is, yes, the defensive albatross of Carlos Santana. And for all his misgivings, he’s still a very valuable player and highly undervalued in Cleveland.
Back on July 27 (here and here), I was already pretty tired of the fans’ hatred of Santana – even from my family members. Thus, I started re-sharing some comparisons to a player who my colleague Jon once accurately described as currently an “average left fielder,” Michael Brantley.
Brantley is a full year younger than Santana, so he likely does still have more potential in terms of growing as a player. Both players are 100% under guaranteed Indians control through the 2016 season.
But these two players receive – in general – starkly opposite reactions from the Cleveland fan base. While Santana is seen as a major liability with his defense who has failed to live up to some unwieldy offensive and slugging expectations, Brantley is “Dr. Smooth” and a natural cog for any team.
So what do the numbers say about a comparison between these two? Per Baseball-Reference, this again shows the unseen value of Santana.
In terms of non-statistical analysis, it’s notable that Brantley made his debut back in 2009, at just 22 years old. Santana starred for the Indians during his brief rookie season in 2010.
The categories might be a bit complex at first for the uninitiated, so here’s a quick key. These all are related formulas that aim to estimate value added to the team:
Rbat – Runs from batting better or worse than average
Rbaser – Runs from baserunning better or worse than average
Rdp – Runs from avoiding double plays better or worse than average
Rfield – Runs from all fielding better or worse than average
Rpos – Runs from positional scarcity better or worse than average
RAA – Total runs above average (sum of previous five columns)
Rrep – Replacement level adjustment, per playing time
RAR – Total runs above replacement (sum of previous two columns)
WAR – Total wins above replacement (approximately, RAR/10)
Let me now share some observations from this chart:
Starting with the guy who is not the focus of this article: Michael Brantley is perfectly average. Yes, over the past two seasons he has been 18 Runs Above Average – nearly 2 wins better. And, as I said before, he is a year younger than Santana and could conceivably still improve. But considering Brantley now plays at left field with little power and as not a great on-base guy, this contract extension talk is a bit baffling. Even FanGraphs agrees.
On the other hand, Carlos Santana is not merely average. He has been 48 Runs Above Average in these four seasons, including 18 last year alone, equaling Brantley’s (far improved) totals from the past two seasons. Santana provides slightly negative value with his baserunning and double play avoidance, but that marks a difference of only about 1 win compared to Brantley.
The biggest reason for Santana’s far-better advanced statistics: His hitting. It seems so ordinary, but yes, Santana is a far better offensive producer than Brantley. With his bat alone, Santana has produced 6 wins more than the average player over these four seasons. His Batting Runs pace in 2013 (18 in 113 games) is by far his best for a full-time season. In fact, according to some research last night, Santana’s 127 career OPS+ ranks sixth-best all-time among catchers with 1,500 plate appearances. That’s extraordinary.
The place where Santana receives the most criticism is with his defense. Catcher defensive statistics are still very raw, as Jon and others have shared. There is no real knowing how accurate these numbers are. Many teams likely have more advanced proprietary statistics, but there’s a reason why those are secretive and us lay fans are left with free sites like Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.
That being said, Santana’s defense was rated as fairly average over the previous three seasons. During that span, he was just 4 runs below average in terms of all aspects of fielding, a perfectly negligible number, especially with his advanced batting abilities. This season, he’s perhaps easily the worst defensive catcher in the game at 14 runs below average. Near-historic wild pitches have been an issue. Rookie Yan Gomes is out-playing him defensively in many fashions.
While many want to say that stats don’t explain the true value of Michael Brantley, it’s then conversely factual that the naked eye doesn’t tell the true value of Carlos Santana. The ways in which the player acquired for Casey Blake in July 2008 is extraordinary aren’t really the sexiest aspects of baseball.
Let’s take a look back at his career statistics, especially his rates per plate appearances of various outcomes (click the image to expand it and get a better view):
The two minor league seasons where he had the largest sample sizes were in 2008 and 2009. The latter season, I was the media relations intern for the Akron Aeros when Santana played 130 out of 142 games and won the Eastern League Most Valuable Player award.
From that season, I gained an up-close appreciation for Santana’s noted consistency and his remarkable patience at the plate. As a minor leaguer, he singled in 15.7% of his at-bats and walked in 13.4%. Just from those two possible outcomes – out of all of the things that could happen in the world – Santana’s on-base percentage was already over .290. He finished his MiLB career in 1,683 plate appearances with a spectacular .401 on-base percentage.
What’s noteworthy is that Santana wasn’t a major slugger in the minors. He had a .210 iso rate (SLG – AVG), which was more because of his solid doubles numbers (69 in 2008 and 2009) than anything. At best, as a major league player, Santana was projected to hit homers in the 20-25 range or so each season. That was never his strength. Yet he was still an incredibly rare offensive talent.
That talent and projectability shines through to his major league production. He walks a bit less, strikes out a bit more and overall isn’t as dominant – as expected against far better pitching. But the ratios are all fairly similar. His on-base percentage at .363 is stellar, ranking 33rd in baseball (min. 1,000 PAs) since 2010. He slugged 27 dingers in 2011, but he has exactly just one more homer and one more double in the majors than in the minors.
All this goes to say that Carlos Santana as a 27-year-old MLB starter is much what we thought he would be as a 23-year-old Double-A MVP. He’s not a perfect player. He was old for his various minor league levels. But his offensive skills shine through as one of the best in baseball.
Long-term, there will need to be a conversation about Santana’s defensive position. Gomes clearly has had a breakout season – despite never really being a prospect – and has deserved more playing time. Undoubtedly, when Santana moves to first base more often, he will take an added penalty for his overall value based on Rpos, the relative positional scarcity above or below average.
While many think Santana has regressed overall as a player, there just flat-out wrong. His offensive numbers continue to shine and with the advanced specialization of bullpens and more, his consistent production is far more impressive compared to league norms. There’s no reason for him to be in the same conversation of the Cabreras or Reynolds or Brantleys, since his offense and overall value is simply still so darn good.
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(AP Photo/Tony Dejak)
62 Comments
I am fully convinced that one of the main reasons that Carlos gets such criticism is because of his fast start in 2010. In his first 15 games, he went .333/.450/.729. After that, he started being an above average offensive player rather than some kind of freak. And, as Fausto Carmona can tell you, there is nothing the Indians’ fanbase hates more than early success.
Not sure in what universe Carlos is under-appreciated, He’s been touted, at this site and elsewhere, as a franchise cornerstone since he arrived. Think what you’re hearing now is an understandable backlash as fans realize the goods attempted to be sold the last few years – that he is Vic Martinez Part II, will not be happening.
Nice hitter for a catcher. But not a catcher, Jacob. Shake all your available stats at me. I watch these games. Stas don’t show him sliding out of the strike zone to nab a pitch 3″ off the plate. Don’t show the wild pitches he causes by his lazy backhand attempts, or the steals caused when he drops or juggles the pitch. And he’s getting worse/lazier. As you point out, his value drops as a first baseman. The team certainly needs the stick, he is very valuable here. But please, spare the impassioned defense for a guy who people (and now you) tout as a virtual all-star. He’s but another talented guy who stubbornly gets stuck in long ruts at the plate and stubbornly refuses to work on his defense at one of the game’s important defensive positions.
Through each’s age 27 season – Santana 127 OPS+, Martinez 122 OPS+
But, yes, the defense has really fallen off this year. Before this season, he threw out a just above average percentage of basestealers, 27%, this year he’s at 11%. And the number of wild pitches already pretty much matches last year’s mark, but in 25 less games. But of course, looking at Martinez again, he saw 100 stolen bases against him in his age 27 season before making an improvement, so the case isn’t closed on Santana yet, hopefully he can bounce back to pre-2013 levels when his defense was acceptable.
Steve hit this right on. Santana’s catcher defense was never really much of a topic over the previous three seasons. Obviously, as a prospect, that was something he had to keep working on after his conversion from being a third baseman in the Dodgers system. But he rated as average-ish pre-2013.
And the biggest reason for this article is the constant barrage of commentary that presents Santana as an average or worse player. He’s not. He’s also far more valuable than Brantley, which is a comparison I’ve seen far too much.
Fans truly do get obsessed with certain average players, like Brantley, and over-value them way too much. This post was designed to be a refresher in that, although his expectations were high, Santana is still quite darn good.
For the life of me, I do not understand this fascination with Brantley. You don’t have to be into advanced statistics to see that Brantley is a tier or two below guys like Santana and Kipnis. I guess he just has that elusive clutchness – all those RBIs.
I take issue with the “stubbornly refuses to work on his defense”. I cannot believe that to be the case. Am I to believe that when Francona tells Santana to work on something, he refuses or just sneaks into the clubhouse to sip fruity drinks Holmgren-style?
Yes, he has holes in his defensive game, but to suggest that he is too lazy or stubborn to improve is a bit much. Maybe he is, but I’d like to see some evidence beyond “he gets into slumps and has trouble playing defense at the hardest position at the highest level in a world class league of an ultra-demanding sport”.
Doesn’t a lot of this have to do with expectations? Using your comparison, Santana was the best prospect in all of baseball. His rookie year was can’t miss television. In fact, I remember writing a piece with something like that in the headline. He was supposed to be the next star in Cleveland.
Brantley was a throw in. After his first year did anyone think he’d still be in the line-up in 2013? Any hands? He shows consistent improvement.
I keep waiting for Santana to become an all-star because I believe that’s what we were sold he was. That’s my bar for Santana.
The clutch narrative is helping Brantley’s perception. .371 average this year w/ RISP. Of course, Santana has a higher OPS in those situations, so it’s not like he’s not performing there.
Frankly it’s Santana’s bat that keeps him as a starting catcher and Francona has all but said it. I have however heard a lot of people get on Carlos but for the record when I do it’s strictly about his horrible defense. Offensively I’ll take his ups and downs on this team he’s really one of if not the best hitters.
A tier okay but not two. Sure on other power packed offensive laiden teams Brantley wouldn’t stand out but this doesn’t diminish what he has done. I still like the guy. The real problem is in RF and still at 3B.
Well compared to Gomes who has played less games as a catcher after switching from 3B yea Santana’s defensive issues could be seen as laziness.
True. Guess tiers are subjective, but yeah… I’m pretty harsh on Brantley. He’s one of those guys who does everything pretty okay so it adds up. I probably don’t give him enough credit.
Imagine if Laporta would have been near what he was supposed to be. The CC trade would have been looked at might differently methinks.
True, but it very well could be because of some physical abilities Yan has that Santana does not. Or the fact that he doesn’t have the wear on the tires that Carlos does.
I just have an issue assuming that the reason a world class athlete who has risen to the 1% of the 1% of the 1% is failing because of some personality flaw. Yes it happens, but I’d like to see some proof. It’s just too easy of a narrative for me.
Looking at Santana’s clutch stats, I’m reminded of the primary reason that he gets so much flack (flack that Brantley does not)- Santana draws so many walks.
And even though your average fan appreciates OBP more than they did 20 years ago, I think drawing a walk is still seen by many as a sign of passivity and weakness, especially when there are runners on base and we need to score.
Situational hitting! and he has to be more aggressive! and so on!
One example: I see laziness when he so often attempts to backhand pitches away in the dirt, many of which go to the backstop. This is a basic catching technique and, of course, the more pitches you block properly the better you become at controlling the smother. The fact that he so often backhands tells me that, even if fatigued, he doesn’t have the muscle memory to react properly. The other part of this is he’s not improving at this, he’s deteriorating. If he’s not hurt, I’m open to other explanations. I’m not the only one who sees this. Team-paid broadcasters comment on it pretty regularly in veiled and not so veiled ways.
He doesn’t look to me like he’s having fun catching, but give me another explanation. I’m open to it, I like the kid.
General wear and tear of being a catcher since little league? Your very choice of words – deteriorating – make it sound like a physical issue rather than some lack of commitment. But I accept that I could be wrong.
Not to mention Brantley plays pretty well defensively. I believe he’s the leader or tied for the lead in outfield assists no?
LaPorta was supposed to be the crown jewel thank goodness Brantley was basically a throw-in. Just shows how the Indians missed on what should have been a can’t miss trade. The Lee to the Phillies was even worse.
Santana hasn’t gotten worse since he’s been a catcher he was never good. In other words he hasn’t gotten better is probably the better way to put it. Gomes will probably never be the hitter Santana is but if he can play defense, throw runners out and call a better game then we have a debate.
No clue on personality I’m talking about on the field production. Personally I favor another position change for Santana most likely 1B.
Since little league? And he’s still this bad defensively? Cleveland we have a problem. I thought he started as an outfielder and only moved to catcher in the minors. Little league, you sure?
No, just positing a hypothesis. Point: wear n’ tear!
Among all position players since 2011, here are rankings in RAR, per FanGraphs:
Carlos Santana, 81.3, 60th in baseball
Michael Brantley, 51.7, 117th in baseball
Whether it’s a tier or two below, it’s clearly notable.
Outfield assists aren’t that valuable. Per FanGraphs (-1.8 runs from fielding) and Baseball-Reference (7 runs from fielding), he ranks as about an average-ish defensive left fielder. The positional scarcity adjustment doesn’t help either for his overall value.
Santana wasn’t a top prospect in baseball. Pre-2008, he wasn’t even a top-10 prospect in the Dodgers system. Then, with his success that year in LA and CLE, he developed into a top prospect, ranking 28th and 10th in MiLB, pre-2009 and pre-2010. (All per Baseball America.)
So yes, perhaps Brantley is a bit more well-regarded by fans. That’s inevitably true, which lead to my article. But it’s a below-average playing improving to average. Santana started out (unsustainably) great and is now good.
Also notable that Brantley wasn’t your traditional player-to-be-named-later. That year, reports stated it was down to Taylor Green or Brantley, both decent-ish prospects in the Milwaukee system.
Here was your article, Rick: https://waitingfornextyear.com/2010/06/carlos-santana-clevelands-next-award-winner/
“While statistics and SABR metrics may not be my strong suit, it doesn’t take a math whiz to see Santana is the real deal. Last night while watching the Indians and doing various tasks around the house I thought of a new nickname possibility for Santana- “Must See”. It may not stick, but to me every at-bat by the kid is must see tv.”
*hand*
Brantley was 22 when he broke into the majors. Improvement was to be expected.
Thank God they chose wisely at least when it came down to PTBNL
LoL whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat outfield assists aren’t valuable? C’mon man! Your a sadistic stat boy dream one up and make it important.
I raise your RAR with my ROAR and say that’s probably because Santana hits homeruns. Well he used to anyways.
Also, your comment about lacking the muscle memory means it is not stubbornness, but natural physical limitations.
“aren’t that valuable” does not mean “aren’t valuable”
Wear n’ tear goes with the territory kinda like depreciation on a car or something.
Agreed. So you’re accepting that maybe he isn’t some lazy, stubborn headcase who won’t put in the work?
no $hit $herlock i forgot we have to parse every word here no wonder i don’t play well with some of you.
I never said he was lazy perhaps you are confusing me with someone else.
Thanks for supporting my original point – people’s expectations were unrealistic because of a hot streak over his first 15 games.
Since little league? Hardly, he came up as a shortstop. Was converted him to put some value bat behind the plate. Doesn’t always work.
Hard to keep track of all these Kool-Aid men.
Then why are you saying they aren’t valuable?
no, silly. It means I’m guessing he ain’t workin’ hard enough at it. That’s how you get the muscle memory. I’m not suggesting he has muscle alzheimer’s.
My point was that he’s played C for a much longer time than Yan. Wear and tear on his body very well could be hurting his performance behind the dish. Playing catcher sucks.
My logo will be changing soon to a more appropriate one. One that is more fitting my awesomeness and overall out of this worldliness. You mortals are so undeserving!
True. Fair enough.Though if it’s a question of muscle memory gained over more reps, the question arises why Gomes has taken to C so quickly with so many less reps than Santana. Maybe Santana just doesn’t have the natural gifts in those departments? Again, not saying it’s the case, but it’s possible.
Mr. Peanut?
I thought he came up as an outfielder. Maybe in little league where nj0 saw him he was a shortstop first.
Wha? Catcher is NOT a position where guys generally slide at 28. Wait, is this Santana’s agent? Cuz the nj0 I know does not get crazy defensive over a player.
nj0 is heading into Steven territory me thinks.
LoL listen Steve I mean nj0 I was the person who started the talk about Brantley’s defensive value. Jacob told me he wasn’t that valuable as a defender. I disagree I just don’t have a fancy statistical RAR to throw out because I don’t bother.
He’s a nutty sorta fella but WRONG. You are the weakest link, goodbye!
When a player slides is unique to everyone.
It really isn’t about Santana as much me as hating this recurring sports narrative that X fails at Y because he is stubborn or lazy or has some moral failing that prevents him from being better. I don’t buy that, the puritan work ethic nonsense that people aren’t better because they don’t want it enough (which isn’t far from the lie that hard work trumps natural skill).
Again, it could be true in CS’s case, but I have a hard team believing it. He’s dedicated enough to be a guy who can put up a .400 OBP, but too stubborn to become better behind the dish? Just doesn’t make sense to me.