April 24, 2014

WFNY Stats & Info: Indians’ playoff odds over 50 percent

What a weekend. With four straight wins over the Chicago White Sox and a boatload of help, your Cleveland Indians are suddenly one-half game behind both American League wild card spots.

With a fortunate schedule on deck, that leaves the Indians now as a near-favorite to grab one of the spots. Here are what popular playoff odds websites say about the Tribe’s current chances:

Baseball Prospectus (link) — 54.4%
FanGraphs (link) — 64.9%
ESPN (link) — 68.3%
CoolStandings (link) — 69.9%

As a brief note, FanGraphs and ESPN both use slightly altered methods related to CoolStandings’ season-to-date approach. That means they focus more on what already has happened with run differential thus far in 2013. Baseball Prospectus’ approach is much different. I’ll have more about this for The Diff on Wednesday.

Per CoolStandings, the Indians’ odds jumped over 40% with the four-game series against Chicago. Per Baseball Prospectus via MLB.com, that number was closer to about 35%. Both are still incredibly substantial changes for this late in the season. For both, Cleveland’s playoff odds are as high as they’ve been all year.

The Indians face off against the Kansas City Royals this week in a pivotal three-game road matchup. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays — the two teams tied for the wild card spots right now — play four in St. Petersburg.

[Related: Tribe Weekend Recap: “Its All Happening!”]

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    On behalf of the mighty BoSox you are welcome. Sadly you might be rewarded with a match-up against us but hey, at least you will have made it even if the stay is short.

  • http://www.twitter.com/dconeil Hamsterdam

    Go BoSox this week. Beat Baltimore.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Spanked the Yanks now it’s time to pluck some Oriole feathers!

  • mgbode

    ah, boston fans, what you think you may want may be more than you can handle

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    If someone has to put down the Francona led Indians it’s only right that it be the Red Sox. Although truth be told there is part of my hybrid makeup that kinda wishes Francona got revenge for the way he was treated at the end.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    I’m growing my Red Sox beard as we speak – that’s for the lady who reads this site!!!

  • mgbode

    speaking of playoff-level performances, a major hat-tip to Glen Perkins who somehow managed to sneak off from the bullpen during a rain delay and buy a round of beers for some Twin fans who decided to stick around:

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/twins-closer-glen-perkins-buys-round-beer-fans-185912479–mlb.html

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    To be fair Perez would probably share too but Brody won’t let ‘em!