MLB News: Michael Bourn undergoes hamstring surgery
October 15, 2013Short-handed Cavs drop their first preseason game
October 16, 2013Cleveland sports fans are waiting. Thus, while we’re all waiting, the WFNY editors thought you might enjoy reading. Because you never know how long we might be waiting. So here are assorted reading goodies for you to enjoy. Send more good links for tomorrow’s edition to tips@waitingfornextyear.com.
The greatest second round picks of all time. “10. MARK PRICE, 25th pick in 1986. Mark Price had a 12-year NBA career with averages of 15.2 PPG and 6.7 APG on 47 percent shooting from the field and 40 percent shooting from deep. Plus, Mark Price is one of the rare members of the 50/40/90 club that only has six (including him). He’s on this list with players like Larry Bird, Steve Nash, Kevin Durant, Reggie Miller and Dirk Nowitzki. Most players will never become a part of this exclusive brotherhood, and Mark Price is the only second-round pick to join. Mark Price left a mark on the NBA, and his Cleveland Cavalier jersey is still being worn in Cleveland. He has done things that most NBA players will never do in a career, which is why he finds his name on this list.” [Corrigan/Dime Magazine]
—-
“It’s a near-truism of sabermetrics that a marginal win costs around $5 million. If you get a two-win player for $8 million, that’s a bargain. If you get a one-win player for $6 million, that’s an overpay. In most corners of the analytical baseball world, player acquisitions and signings are judged as fair, ripoffs, or bargains according to this standard. But there’s a problem: a win doesn’t cost $5 million. A win costs $7 million. Well, actually it’s $7,032,099, but calling it $7 million is fine.
Let me back up. As I started to plan ahead for my senior thesis, I realized my analysis depended on having good empirical data for the market value of a win for each season in the post-strike era. The most popular estimates for the annual cost of a win are those calculated by Dave Cameron and hosted on FanGraphs. But Cameron’s figures don’t go back as far as my research required, and more to the point I was skeptical about some of the specifics of his methodology.” [Pollis/Beyond the Box Score]
—-
Very cool graphic on the heights and weights of NFL players by position. [Deadspin]
—-
“What seems to worry fans is the history of rookie big guys with apparent conditioning problems. For every Glen Davis who uses mass to their advantage, there is a Sean May who cannot overcome his own inertia to become an effective NBA player. This fear is not without its merits, but it pays to look at players on a case by case basis to determine what pattern exists if any. Generally, young post players take a while to adjust. The most difficult tweak to make is to find equal footing in the physical arena of NBA play. This is why Jonas Valanciunas needed to add 15-20 pounds of muscle this offseason. This is why Tristan Thompson is starting to put it together (theoretically) after an average rookie season. The paramount importance of being able to hang physically is why Andre Drummond has succeeded thus far in the NBA. He is an elite athlete among his NBA peers and so his adjustment period was smaller. For all of DeAndre Jordan’s basketball shortcomings, he is sufficiently explosive to make up for certain transgressions. Since there is an order of magnitude jump between college defenses and athleticism and the tactical and physical demands of NBA ball, none but the most talented players are able to step in and impose their will from the jump. It’s a very different animal. While Bennett isn’t necessarily a monstrous athlete on the order of the Javales and DeAndres of the league, he has the mass factor on his side and is more than his size.” [Redford/Cavs the Blog]
—-
Hmmm. Trade Bourn? “Given that, it would make some sense for the Indians to investigate the possibility of trading Bourn this offseason. Not only would it maximize the potential return the Indians would receive, you have to wonder what else could be done if that fifteen million was available to spend elsewhere. Or if you combine it with the seven million they would get from releasing Chris Perez and the six million they would get from trading Asdrubal Cabrera. At that point you would be looking at adding a front-line starting pitcher and a middle of the order bat, and still have a few million left over to plug whatever holes pop up.” [Mount/Wahoos on First]
26 Comments
Interesting article about moving Bourn (and much more plausibly written than last week’s article that talked about moving Bourn and stuff like moving Kipnis to the OF to make room for Jose Ramirez).
The big question for the front office is if they think Bourn was hampered by injuries this year. If so, it’s plausible to imagine him bouncing back to be the OBP and havoc on the basepaths creating guy who we imagined when we signed him. If not, one of the things that pundits like Keith Law liked about this deal is it was below market value and good teams weren’t interested in signing Bourn last year because of his cost in draft picks, meaning he should be movable now.
Gotta wonder what the CF solution is if you move Bourn though. No part of me wants to see Stubbs in CF against RHPs. Are we comfortable moving Brantley back there? Then you’ve got a hole in LF, and there aren’t a lot of mid-market FA OFs available to fill it…
I have to think Bourn’s value is pretty low, considering his salary increases over the next few years and his pretty lousy numbers.
Not as low as Cabrera’s
I don’t think Brantley is a CF. I like the way Bourn plays and I can see him bouncing back. I still think we paid too much for Swisher. He sucks in the postseason too. On a good roster, he would be batting in the bottom 3rd.
agree on Brantley, Bourn, and Swisher.
still think we need to convince Asdrubal to move to 3B and sign a defensive SS who won’t be a complete hole in the lineup. seems like the most practical way to improve (not sure what to do about RF).
other notable Cavs on that list:
Andy is 29th (and would be alot higher if he could stay healthy)
Boozer is 18th (on hype, I don’t think he deserves that high)
World B. Free is 15th
Price at 10 feels a little low (he should at least be above Mo Cheeks), but it was pretty obvious the writer was valuing championships on his list, which has to do as much with the team around those guys he listed.
Yeah, Swisher has had a tough run in the postseason, but he has a career 118 OPS+, 117 last year. That’s a middle of the order hitter, not bottom third.
great article on the valuation of a WIN.
the one issue I have with it still is that it really needs to be done separately for different tiers of teams. I think the actual valuation for a team in the high dollar tiers is different from those in the mid or low tiers. And, there should be a valuation based on it (it would also represent the competitive unbalance for competing contractually in FA).
regardless, it’s a good piece and good work done.
Ok, Bottom of the middle of the order then. I am looking at 6 hole
“a defensive SS who won’t be a complete hole in the lineup”
The market for SS is pretty thin, Drew is really the only name out there (if you aren’t taking Peralta back, and that’s not happening) and he’s not a defensive SS.
Aviles until Lindor, or are we more than half a year out still on him…
RF is tough. We will have Santana taking up 110 games or so as DH/1B, the other 50 as C, That would mean Swisher at DH/RF for 110 games? I think we need to pick someone up Marlon Byrd for 2M?
But those teams are competing in the same market. I’m not sure how much different the valuation can actually be.
This article actually caused Tom Tango to take a look at the previous valuations, and after adjusting for a new replacement level (Fangraphs changed it recently) and that projection systems almost always err on the side of predicting too much playing time across the league, and see that we should have gotten close to $7M anyway. The issue is that we’ve had difficulty projecting playing time, which, well, of course.
I think there is no way you can get Byrd that cheap.
ok 2 yr 6M? He made 700K last season
Actually looking at his history, I could see him doing a 2 yr 5 mil. Dude turns 37 next season. What about SS Escobar? No way TB doesn’t pick up their option for 5M right?
He made 700k because he was coming off a suspension. The market should look completely different for him. I’d guess 7-8 mill a year.
Because fangraphs is easier for me to sort through the data: Swisher had a 116 wRC+, good for 39th best in the AL last year. Looking at the last three years, his wRC+ is 13th among guys who qualified. Now, that eliminates newer guys who haven’t been around for three years, but even if we tone down the minimum PAs to 1000, Swisher ranks 23rd. Even, if we look at the “good rosters”, say the Red Sox and Tigers, he’s equivalent to Hunter or Victorino (this year, but better than him in years past). Swisher is a guy who’d hit in the top half of just every order.
wow…pass
I find this stuff interesting, but I failing to see the big breakthrough on Pollie’s work. He’s a local boy, so no ill wishes, and he obviously did a lot of detailed work. But I don’t see how anyone revalues the market because of this.
What he’s really proven is just how off our projections for playing time are, which is an interesting feature, but it’s something that we already kind of knew. For example, the Indians value a win at $9M. It’s all about the baseline you want to set for replacement level, and that’s going to vary team by team (maybe this is what you’re getting at mgbode?).
I don’t think that would be that bad. I think you can expect a league average, maybe a tick higher, bat, and he’s still fine in field and on the bases. I think 2/$15M isn’t a steal, but I’d take it.
What would you do with everyone else then? Seems like Swisher needs time somewhere. He had highs for HR last year. Don’t know if he can replicate it next 2 years
Wouldn’t expect him to replicate last year, but something like a 105-110 OPS+, which is average over the last few years.
They gave almost 500 PAs to Stubbs last year. That’s where the vast majority of PAs I’d give Byrd to would come from.
That number is comparable to Hunter in Det, and Victorino in Bos, both “good rosters”. He was 28th in wRC+ this year in the AL, and 15th over the last three years. The guy hits in the top half of every order.
I agree that you need each team to make their own valuations and that was where I was going (though breaking up by tier instead of team).
Playing time is also very interesting thing to gauge as we saw this past year the difference between having a guy like Raburn to play the “extra” games vs. Damon/Lillibridge. Something to be factored into these discussions and figured out on how to split that money based on expected wins.
I am on board with the idea that each team has their own replacement level, especially as its tailored to their own specific depth chart, I’m just not sure if you can break it up as “big market” or “small market”, but it’s certainly worth looking at.
I think we’re looking at playing time a bit differently though. When making projections for a guy like Aviles, it’s a lot easier to find similar players, and project him based on what they did, he’ll project to have a similar number of PAs. It’s much harder to project how much playing time a utility infielder will get behind the likes of Kipnis, Cabrera, and Chisenhall, with Francona making the decisions, that situation is (obviously) a lot more unique. And then you have situations where you may project both Cabrera and Aviles to miss time, but it’s impossible to guess if they’ll be injured at separate times, leading to no need to actually play your replacement player (John McDonald this year) or if they get hurt at the same time.
I also wonder if when projection systems are looking at similar players, they are more likely to grab a guy who had ended up sticking around, accumulating more PAs than a guy who washed out of the league. The former would have more opportunities to be compared to a current player than the latter would. This could lead to increased playing time projections, past the amount teams could actually use.