Browns sign Cooper from practice squad, place Edwards on IR
November 20, 2013Joe Haden’s new outlook could lead him to Hawaii
November 20, 2013The Diff is your weekly WFNY look into the amazing world of sports statistics. For a complete log of articles, click this link. Last week, I wrote about the fascinating new SportVU data and early Cavaliers shooting charts. This week, it’s over to football to talk in “Fun With Numbers”-style about the Cleveland Browns’ horrific loss to Cincinnati.
67.0% – The difference in winning percentage for the Browns between the end of the first quarter and halftime on Sunday in Cincinnati. When BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ three-yard loss of a run ended the first quarter, Cleveland held a 68.5% win probability, per the amazing research website Pro-Football-Reference.com. The road team’s high point was 80% following an Andy Dalton incompletion two minutes prior. But, by halftime, after a terrible, horrible 15-minute turn of events, Browns had just a 1.5% win probability. One play alone – the second blocked punt of Spencer Lanning – affected the odds by 17.2% while giving the Bengals their first lead of the game.
2.38 – Yards per play for Cleveland in Bengals territory on Sunday, an atrocious number compared to the NFL average of 4.55 yards per play on the opponent’s side of the field. In fact, the Browns now rank second-to-last in the league with an average of only 3.47 yards on 267 such plays this season. Baltimore is worst by far at 2.99. Denver leads the league by far at 5.91. The issue for Cleveland has been completion percentage: Only 44.2% compared to the split league average of 57.2%. It’s tough to move the ball when completing well less than half of passes.
19 – Number of plays during the Browns’ painfully long fourth-quarter turnover on downs drive against the Bengals on Sunday. That drive was the longest, by number of plays, in the NFL in nearly two years: The last 19-plus play drive occurred in Week 17 of the 2011 season by the Miami Dolphins against the New York Jets. The last 19-plus play drive with at least 18 pass attempts occurred during Week 17 of the 2011 season by the New York Giants against the Green Bay Packers. Of course, only half of Jason Campbell’s passes were completions and the Browns eventually turned the ball over at Cincinnati’s four-yard line, but here’s to history!
3 – Games with 50-plus pass attempts for the Browns this season, most in single-season franchise history and most in the NFL. Just three teams have exactly two such games this season: Atlanta, Baltimore and Cincinnati. Since 1970, throwing the ball 50 times has not been an indicator of success: NFL teams are 107-410-1 (.207) in such games. The 2012 Detroit Lions and 1994 New England Patriots hold the single-season record with five 50-plus pass games. Only once had the Browns ever had two such games in a year: 1981. Sunday’s contest was the 11th such game in franchise history. Cleveland ranks second in the NFL by passing on 67.7% of all offensive plays.
17 – With Sunday’s pass-heavy day, Jason Campbell became the 17th Browns quarterback since 1999 to accumulate 90 pass attempts in a season. He’s the third in 2013 after Brandon Weeden and Brian Hoyer. Such a triumphant trio of throwers also occurred in 2010 (Jake Delhomme, Colt McCoy and Seneca Wallace).
2,257 – Total days between NFL contests where a team scored at least 40 points while accumulating under 250 yards of offense. Cincinnati accomplished the rare feat, which has occurred just 20 times in NFL history, on Sunday against the Browns. The previous team to do so: New England in Week 15 of the 2006 season against Houston. They had four field goals, four interceptions off Texans quarterback David Carr and a 93-yard kickoff return touchdown in that game.
-9.4% – Percentage difference in targets for Jordan Cameron with Jason Campbell at quarterback compared to the other Browns players under center in 2013. With Campbell the past few weeks, Cameron has been targeted on just 16 of 129 pass attempts (12.4%). That ratio was an astounding 21.8% prior to Campbell. Many have criticized Campbell’s recent checkdown tendencies – 49 of his 56 pass attempts on Sunday were aimed short, per Pro-Football-Reference. But Cameron’s absence has been notable as the veteran QB looks to running backs on most of those short routes.
3.9 – The overall offensive rating for embattled second-year right tackle Mitchell Schwartz in Sunday’s game, per ProFootballFocus. It was the best game of the season for Schwartz, a tough year in which he had a combined -7.2 rating through the first two games. It wasn’t all that long ago when the Browns were supposedly in the mix for several right tackles looking for a replacement. But Schwartz and Joe Thomas each hauled equal 3.9 ratings on Sunday, offering up hope for at least one of the team’s early picks from the fabled 2012 draft.
38.5 – Average number of snaps for rookie outside linebacker Barkevious Mingo in the last four games for the Browns. From Weeks 4-6, Mingo averaged 67 snaps per contest. He’s now in a reserve role and his efficiency has dwindled off as well. Per ProFootballFocus, Mingo had a -4.1 overall defensive rating in Sunday’s game, by far the worst of his young career and tied for the second-worst defensive performance by a Cleveland player this season.
8.2% – Cleveland’s playoff odds as we enter Week 12 of the NFL season, per the brilliant stat minds at Football Outsiders. That probability is a 6.3% drop from last week. The Browns may be out of the division race – they’re now 2.5 games back of division-leading Cincinnati – but they remain just one game away from the second AFC Wild Card spot. The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are currently tied at 5-5. After that, six teams, including three from the AFC North, are all tied at 4-6. The Jets (29.0%), Steelers (19.7%), Dolphins (16.5%), Ravens (12.1%) and Titans (8.8%) all have better postseason odds than Cleveland.