Lions hire Jim Caldwell; Jim Tressel to follow?
January 14, 2014Urban Meyer strikes again as Buckeyes also add Arkansas’ Chris Ash
January 14, 2014The waiting……I cant take much more of it. No, I am not talking about the ridiculous and seemingly clueless Browns Head Coaching search. Just get me to Tribe opening day already.
(Let me get it out of the way. If the Browns are indeed waiting on Denver Offensive Coordinator Adam Gase, then fine. I guess. But what happens when the 35-year old decides he doesn’t want the job? Then what?)
OK no more Browns talk. Let me get to the one team in town that actually has a chance to not only get the playoffs, but actually make a run. Yeah. I said it. Why not? Did any of you see 92 wins coming last year? Nope. I know I didn’t. But with Terry Francona at the helm, anything is possible.
Most people think the Indians are all set with their roster. There will be plenty of opportunities on this team to become members of both “The Goon Squad” and the bullpen. The starting rotation seems to be set with the top four guys with three in-house options along with a veteran lottery ticket attempting to be the final piece to the puzzle.
But is there a possibility that the Indians can pull off another late winter surprise?
It wasn’t until late February that GM Chris Antonetti shocked the Baseball world and snagged prime center field free agent Michael Bourn on a four-year deal. Bourn was another Scott Boras client hanging around on the open market because he was tied to draft pick compensation. Unless you are a casual baseball fan or living under a rock, you know that the collectively bargained qualifying offer/draft pick compensation situation has been in play for the past two offseasons. It has become a serious problem. You can bet when this current agreement expires on December 1, 2016, the loss of a first round draft pick for all teams not picking in the top 10 when signing a “qualifying offer” free agent will be gone one way or another.
This brings me to my former whipping boy turned hero Ubaldo Jimenez.
It seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Tribe’s best starter in 2013 would walk in free agency. Ubaldo did everything the Indians asked in a second half run to the playoffs, leading the American League in ERA and transforming himself from a fifth starter at best to the top of the rotation starter Antonetti traded for in 2011. He worked closely with pitching coach Mickey Calloway and regained his top form. All of it was wonderful and great, but we also knew that Jimenez was pitching himself into a big pay day.
In a no-brainer move, the Indians tendered Ubaldo the $14.1 million qualifying offer, knowing he wouldn’t take it and he would be tied to a first round draft pick, which the Tribe would pick up after the end of the first round. Last winter it was Kyle Lohse who sat around waiting for a job into Spring Training. This year, it is not just Ubaldo, but Ervin Santana as well.
There is also the Masahiro Tanaka effect to consider. Most of the pitching hungry teams are holding their money for the Japanese star who is expected to have a Yu Darvish type immediate effect. Once his bidding is open, the big boys will line up, to take numbers, just to throw money his way. But only one team can get Tanaka. The losers will most likely head towards the consolation prize of Matt Garza, who because of his mid-season trade to Texas, is not tied to a draft pick. That still leaves Jimenez and Santana twisting in the wind, looking for a big deal.
The good news for the Indians – the longer this process drags out, the better their chances are to possibly bring back Ubaldo on a shorter deal than he had hoped to get. I still don’t think it is going to happen, but the potential to return has gone from slim to none to an outside chance. Jimenez is looking for at least $14 million per, but the four years he is seeking may not be there. Even with Justin Masterson a free agent after the 2014 and extension talks on the docket, would the Tribe give the Big U three years and $42 million?
I started looking into the payroll to see if this was workable. Then of course, my main man Jacob Rosen, aka Jakey Stats, provided me the following estimates:
1. I had 25 men (already sans Drew Stubbs $3.1 million and Joe Smith and his $3.5 million).
2. New people likely fully guaranteed of MLB jobs: David Murphy ($6 mil), John Axford ($4.5 mil) and Josh Outman ($1.4 mil).
3. Some estimated changes to make room: Take out Nick Hagadone, Jose Ramirez and Trevor Bauer.
With those additions and changes, my estimate at this moment in time is $82.8 million. That assumes MLB Trade Rumors’s arbitration estimates and no further changes to that exact 25-man roster. That includes the big jumps in the contracts of both Bourn and Nick Swisher, along with Asdrubal Cabrera’s $10 million.
If what Jacob estimates is indeed true, could they actually swoop in late again and pull off another coup with Jimenez?
The real question is, would you want him back? If I knew I could sign up for last year’s second half version of Ubaldo, then I would certainly be on board. The comfort he has with the organization and the Francona/Calloway duo has to account for something, doesn’t it? Then again, my concern with Jimenez is always that he is one bad start or mechanical issue away from becoming a mess again.
With Jimenez, the rotation would look familiar and strong: Masterson and Jimenez leading the way with star in the making Danny Salazar right behind them. Corey Kluber and Zach McAllister rounding things out would be NICE. You would not have to worry about Carlos Carrasco and/or Trevor Bauer figuring themselves out or Josh Tomlin and/or Shawn Marcum turning into this year’s version of Scott Kazmir. You can never have enough starting pitching options. There is no doubt that bringing back Ubaldo would make the Indians better than they are right now.
Let us just continue to be patient. As I said before, the longer this thing draws out, the more the Indians can become a serious player for Jimenez.
79 Comments
One of the You May Also Like was TD’s “cut Ubaldo” piece from last year. Who could’ve guessed you’d be a writing a piece like this 9 months later?
I’d rather the Tribe use any “hidden funds” to extend Masterson rather than re-signing Ubaldo. Masty can lose his delivery point, too, but he hasn’t had the velocity drop that Ubaldo has.
Given that he showed he still has the ability to be a really good number 2 caliber starter, I think the Indians should absolutely be open to the idea of bringing him back… with the right deal.
I don’t see that deal happening. After the Tanaka situation resolves itself, the big payroll teams remaining will be able to offer Ubaldo more than the Indians will. I seriously doubt the Indians would even offer 3 years at 14 million per as you ask about.
“the longer this process drags out, the better their chances are to possibly bring back Ubaldo on a shorter deal than he had hoped to get.”
I don’t agree with this. Nothing is going to change until the after Tanaka lands on the 24th. The market for Ubaldo is not going to change. The number of teams interested in him are not going to go down. Now, if Ubaldo doesn’t sign soon after the 24th and needy teams go else where, THEN our chances improve.
But right now? Nothing is changing because nothing is happening. Barring a motorcycle accident or something, it’s static until Tanaka goes somewhere.
not to mention one of the teams that will likely be attempting to sign him is the Mariner’s whose 1st round pick is top10 protected. we’re not getting Ubaldo back.
Look out for the Mariners next yr.
It all depends on what Ubaldo is going to get, but I think I generally agree with this.
The Wedge-free Mariners.
I know the situations aren’t nearly the same, but I remember everyone saying Fielder had made a mistake when he stayed unsigned for so long.
Some guys sign early, some sign late. Depends on the market. These guys are just going to sign late.
I think I originally said Ubaldo gets 3yrs at $54M. May be less than that, but I am still okay with that prediction.
I think that one of the biggest issues is that most of the media has yet to come to terms with the new reality of timelines for MLB FA. everything is now pushed further back. As TD noted, if MLB wants to change it (and I think they do), then they’ll have to wait until 2016.
Is that their motto for 2014?
They’re better but pretty average in my opinion. I’m not crazy about the Cano signing. Not so much because he’s bad or anything, but if I were a Mariners fan I’d rather them use that money to get multiple good pieces rather than one big money player. Not a fan of the stars and slop method.
I don’t think the qualifying offer is working the way players hoped it would. All it does is hurt the market for FA vets coming from small to mid-markets.
Considering how weak they union has been during this whole A-Rod thing, I wouldn’t be surprised if it sticks around. Selig owns them pretty much.
They are going to be the sleeper next year
TD Dery be careful in what you wish for in being in a hurry for opening day because IMO there are plenty of potential pitfalls awaiting this team. On the positive side they have Terry Francona to captain them. I think his skills will be tested this coming season however.
I just don’t see it at all. But what do I know. We shall see in September.
If they get Tanaka then I’ll take more notice but I agree that lineup even with Cano is less then scary IMO.
Somewhere Donald Fehr is crying.
If you’re into projections and that sort of thing, the numbers don’t love them. And if you’re not, I think just looking up and down their roster… like you said less than scary. If they add some pieces, who knows?
Looking at what I typed… I’m not sure how the players thought the QO was going to work out. Clearly it wasn’t going to help them make more money. Seems to me that was a pretty big concession. For what?
Extending Masterson could be a horrible decision.
Fehr? Sure, I guess, but Marvin Miller is rolling over in his grave after how much Weiner gave back to the owners. For all the credit Weiner got for being friendly, he sure lost a lot of battles.
They have 2 out of the top 15 SP in the majors. Like you guys said wait and see who else they get. There is always going to be a team that looks dog on paper but has some studs. We’ll see
Travis Hafner and Jake Westbrook agree
Like I said, stars and slop. Trash and treasure. Not denying they don’t have talent. If only this was the NBA.
Westbrook is relevant here. Hafner is not. But the bottom line remains, Masterson is an above-average SP who will be on the wrong side of 30 for all of any extension. Unless it’s a 2-3 year extension, trade him or let him walk.
The Mariners needed to do something besides Cano. Trade for Price (as bad as it would have been, long-term), sign another bat (I could still see them signing Nelson Cruz) or something. As is, they’re still likely 3rd or 4th in the AL West (and Houston won’t be worse than them for much longer).
MLB is trying to (continue) to screw the Japanese leagues, and they’ve basically had to rework the entire posting system (and it still sucks). THAT’S been the major hang up. But don’t discredit the qualifying offer, either. It’s not so much the pick teams care about, it’s the draft pool money that matters.
Above average, you think?
Iwakuma is my sleeper for this upcoming fantasy baseball season. I’m hoping to snag him on multiple squads.
I know.
Cruz would be a nice addition and probably far more cheaper then what he had expected to sign with months ago.
you are a year late on that sleeper status.
No I had him a year ago too. I think he’ll still be overlooked this upcoming season.
Career ERA+ of 100 over his first thousand innings. Which is exactly average.
I completely disagree. Masterson is a #3 who is on a staff who has had to trade their #1s. He’s just waiting to go back to the bullpen.
Thank you.
… that sure sounds like an above-average pitcher to me. He’s not necessarily a pen guy yet.
He’s far from a sure thing. He’s sort of like Ubaldo in that he has been s inconsistent from year to year, just with smaller peaks and valleys.
You like the sabermetrics when they agree with you. You’re learning!
Clearly we have a different definition of “above average.”
well, I hope you are correct, but doubt it. his raw numbers were too good to ignore last year. He was basically Darvish w/ a respectable SO total instead of an insane one:
Darvish 209IP 13W 2.83ERA 1.07WHIP 277SO
Iwakuma 219IP 14W 2.66ERA 1.01WHIP 185SO
Dude I’ve been saying this about Masterson for years. C’mon man. And I refuse to learn thank you very much! Wait…
Darvish’s Ks made him the sexy pick I’m perfectly fine with some Iwakuma.
I’m still holding out hope he gets traded rather than extended.
It’s a question of the populace we’re talking about.
World? Way above average.
Baseball? Yes.
MLB pitchers? Average.
Hmmmmm, now that’s interesting.
Agree on the second point. Don’t think he’s going to be very valuable going forward. Red flags galore (and not just PEDs)
You always doubt me son haven’t Tom Brady and I taught you by now to never doubt us? Sigh!
He’s still got more then enough upside to help that Mariners lineup besides Cano will need a legitimate power guy behind him otherwise when he gets hot walk him.
Not saying he won’t help at all, but there’s not much upside left in that bat. Plus the move from Texas to Seattle wouldn’t help.