Scott Raab discusses Chris Grant’s firing – WFNY Podcast – 2014-02-07
February 7, 2014Team-building exercises: The ultimate puzzle
February 7, 2014(Editor’s Note: The following is a submission from Richard Clark)
With Masahiro Tanaka off the board, inking a 7-year, $155 million deal with the less-than-frugal New York Yankees, and Matt Garza agreeing to terms with the Brewers for four years and $52 million, the free agency pitching logjam should begin to clear out quickly over the next few weeks. The likes of Paul Maholm, Bronson Arroyo, Ervin Santana, and Ubaldo Jimenez will finally get some deserved attention, and lucrative deals, as desperation becomes a key component late in the free agency period. Front offices will be looking to put the final touches on their rosters before Spring Training, and front-of-the-line rotation arms are hard to come by. However, despite gargantuan contracts becoming the norm for starting pitchers – I’m looking at you, Clayton Kershaw – it seems one of the above is likely to come at a bargain; that man is Ubaldo Jimenez.
Teams have been hesitant to come to terms with Jimenez. He commands a multiyear deal somewhere in the $14 million per-year range. Though Ubaldo’s second half performance certainly earned him the right to a significant raise over his $5.75 million base salary from a year ago, posting a 1.82 ERA over his last 18 starts, it seems the front offices of pitching-starved teams have been cautious given his inconsistencies. Jimenez’s struggles down the stretch after his deadline acquisition from Colorado in 2011 and his continued implosion throughout 2012 loom large in the minds of Major League executives as they mull over a lucrative, lengthy deal. It is clear that teams remember the Jimenez that led the American League in walks and wild pitches while posting a 5.40 ERA just two seasons ago. The concern is that without the tutelage of full time magician, part time pitching coach Mickey Callaway, the man who brought you the resurrection of Jimenez and Scott Kazmir, Jimenez will revert back to his former, lesser self. The potential is clearly there, as evidenced by his play down the stretch in 2013 and the Indians’ $14 million qualifying offer, but $60 million in guaranteed money and a forfeited first round draft pick seems like a gamble given Ubaldo’s well-documented track record.
Tanaka’s deal with the Yankees provides insight into which teams are still pursuing starting pitching late in free agency. The other finalists in the Tanaka sweepstakes, the Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Arizona Diamondbacks, are clearly still on the prowl for a front-of-the-rotation arm, and willing to spend big bucks to attain one. To this point, the only teams linked to Jimenez are the Yankees, who are likely done after spending $450 million in free agency not including Tanaka’s $20 million posting fee, and the Toronto Blue Jays. Meanwhile, CSN Chicago confirmed the Cubs will not pursue Ubaldo despite their interest in Tanaka. Given the fact that Matt Garza was not tied to draft pick compensation, in contrast to his counterparts Jimenez and Santana, it is no surprise he was the next domino to fall after the Tanaka deal, satisfying the needs of the Brewers, one of the few teams left in the market for a pricey rotation upgrade.
With a thinning market for Ubaldo’s services and other viable, more consistent options available – Ervin Santana’s ERA has been under 4.00 three of the last four seasons – it seems likely he could be lured back into the open arms of Chris Antonetti and Mark Shapiro. Additionally, rotation options like Paul Maholm and Bronson Arroyo will come for fewer years and less guaranteed cash. There is one other key component that factors into the Tribe’s interest in Jimenez, however: The arbitration status of ace Justin Masterson. MLB.com reported it is extremely likely that the Tribe heads to arbitration for the first time since Greg Swindell and Jerry Browne had their salaries determined at a hearing in 1991, as Masterson and the Indians brass are $3.75 million apart in their negotiations, the largest arbitration gap in all of baseball. The situation is not promising for those hoping Masterson would ink an extension in arbitration talks.
If taken to a hearing, it is possible Masterson and the Tribe will become alienated from one another, with the Indians trying to convince an arbitrator their ace is worth considerably less than he, and the market for that matter, seem to indicate. Despite being one of the most grounded players in the game, Masterson is a MLBPA representative, making a hometown discount unlikely. With the likes of Ricky Nolasco signing long-term deals worth $12 million per year, it seems Masterson is right in asking for just under that figure from the Tribe. If the Tribe and Masterson end up before an arbitrator, however, and their relationship sours, Ubaldo becomes even more coveted as an integral piece of the team’s future. Masterson leaving in free agency before the 2015 season would create a void at the front end of the rotation that without Ubaldo, it would be near impossible to fill (apologies to the members of the Carlos Carrasco fan club).
All signs point to the Indians and Ubaldo needing each other, both for the present and future. A signing would fortify the Tribe rotation, giving Terry Francona three potential aces in Jimenez, Justin Masterson, and young gun Danny Salazar for 2014. For the second consecutive year, it seems patience in free agency may pay off in a big way for Mark Shapiro and Chris Antonetti, as Ubaldo Jimenez finds his way home.
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Richard Clark is a sophomore at the University of Notre Dame. Originally from Youngstown, Ohio, Clark is a diehard Cleveland fan since birth.
22 Comments
“Despite being one of the most grounded players in the game, Masterson is a MLBPA representative, making a hometown discount unlikely.” —Absent some data that backs it up, this is a fairly unfair statement to make. What does his willingness to serve as a representative of his co-workers have to do with his desire to stay in (or leave) Cleveland? Or his desire (or not) to get paid every possible dollar? Or his desire (or not) to see what other teams think he’s worth? This sentence gives the impression you’re inferring far too much based on one facet of his personal life. It’s the equivalent of saying “Masterson is really tall, making a hometown discount unlikely” or “Masterson was born in Jamaica, making a hometown discount unlikely”. The fact that he’s a Player Rep tells us absolutely nothing about his feelings towards Cleveland. Further, it detracts from what is an otherwise valid point about the animosity that the arbitration process can cause.
has anyone heard how much we may have offered him? i have seen nothing on the subject yet. it’s interesting to track, but i’m not holding out much hope. Maholm and Arroyo have their own issues but not nearly the upside. We’ll see.
Hoynsie reported that Masterson filed at $11.8M. The Indians came in at $8.05M. It is the largest gap between team and player of all current unsigned cases.
thank you and apologies for the vague comment. I actually meant Ubaldo. I suspect we had discussions with him on contract extensions before we offered him the QO, but never saw an actual amount there.
I think the implication is that having a position in the union will make him unlikely to do anything that violates the unwritten union doctrine of “get as many dollars as you can for everyone’s sake.” It’s not really not an unreasonable assumption – at least not as unreasonable as you seem to think.
Since others have to give us a first round draft pick, I really do think we are in the drivers seat. If we think he is worth it, i would say 3 years 39M, but I don’t know if he is worth that much with his inconsistencies. Some people are saying he will get close to Jacksons 4 yr 52M.
What do you think about Oakland’s 2 yr 22 mil to Kaz?
Ubaldo and his agent thought they could get 4yr/60M but that’s not happening. He’ll probably get something closer to 3yr/35M, and maybe a fourth year option. Given his inconsistencies, any team signing Ubaldo will want as much of that be incentive-based as possible.
If he ends up signing with Cleveland, it means few, if any, big spenders were left to compete with us. We would want to back load the contract so that we don’t go too far over budget this season, and make a very large portion of the contract performance based. My best guess is something like 8M/12M/15M and the third year might be a team option that becomes guaranteed if certain criteria is met.
I think it is overpaying and risky. I mean, we are talking about a guy who had a WAR of 1 last year and has a long injury history.
then again, it’s a similar contract to Tim Hudson and Bartolo Colon and they both have nearly 10 yrs of age on Kazmir. So, factor in his injuries and it looks to be the going rate.
I thought I heard they offered Ubaldo something like $14M a year not sure how many years tho perhaps it was one or two I don’t know.
they offered him the $14mil qualifying offer (had to if they wanted draft pick compensation)
Yeah. I think you’re mistaking “unionism” for “capitalism,” which is what makes it an unreasonable assumption.
The Indians have the significant advantage in assessing the value of a player they tried to nurture and prod and re-make for 3 years. If the market on him really plummets and they still don’t jump in and offer lots of guaranteed money, there’s probably a good reason. As in: “Last season was a straight Mickey Callaway psyche job, and who knows if Ubaldo’s eyes will keep following the swinging watch after he’s paid.”
Yea wasn’t this what you asked?
I would dearly love for him to return, it would solve all our remaining problems with one move. We’d fortify our SP situation, potentially avoid dealing with the loss of Masterson later, and have a strong rotation along with a solid offense which could continue capitalizing on our success last year – meaning we can reach the playoffs again.
I would think signing Ubaldo for multiple years would all but mean Masterson is gone after the year or (hopefully NOT) at the deadline. No matter the outcome of the arbitration hearing, I would kick the tires hard one last time on an extension for similar years/dollars to Masty as we’d be willing to give to Ubaldo before actually offering him anything. Doubtful Masterson accepts that offer since he’ll be looking for something with more years, but it’d at least be worth one last try.
“Though Ubaldo’s second half performance certainly earned him the right to a significant raise over his $5.75 million base salary”
Guy worked hard for like 20 days… of course he deserves more than $5 million dollars a year.
Qualifying offer is not the multi-year contract that he turned down. For a qualifying offer, MLB averages the top 125 salaries from the pervioius year. This number (13.3 in 2013, 14.1 in 2014) is the 1 year salary that the player has 7 days to decide whether to accept if a team offers (Teams have 5 days after WS to make QO). If another team signs the player, they surrender their 1st round draft pick (and it is basically a forfieted pick it doesn’t go to CLE, it is just a condensed 1st round, but CLE would get a compensartory selection at the end of the first round).
SOOOO, mgbode was asking what we offered him that he turned down (probably 3 year 30 mil or so) not what the QO was.
I think the Indians are fully prepared to go into the season with a rotation of Masterson, Salazar, Kluber, McAllister, and Carrasco/Tomlin/Bauer/Reclamation project. Carrasco is out of options as it is, and if he doesn’t earn the 5th spot they’re going to have to make him the long reliever just to keep him on the roster a little longer.
That being said, I’m sure there’s still some interest in Ubaldo. I think that if things continue the way they are, he might consider a one year deal and hope next year’s market is better for him. (if he turns in a second straight solid year it certainly would be) If he signs for one year and, say, 10 million, he’s essentially got a two year deal with the second being a mutual, ~$15 million option because the Indians would probably extend another QO if he was good again. If he insists on a multiyear deal, it’s almost certainly going to be less than Garza’s unless he can pitch well for two years in a row.
I don’t actually think that there is going to be any animosity between Masterson and the Indians over the arbitration numbers. And if there’s any hometown discount it would be a fairly minor one either way, since it’s not like he came up through our system or has been here for a decade or anything. It will just come down to a balance between comfort level, belief that the Indians will contend, and the numbers.
Using the term “ace” loosely, eh? (Cause not one of Masterson, Ubaldo or Salazar are one, and doubtful Salazar ever gets to that point).
And your mistaking capitalism for unionism which is also part of the free market system and an unreasonable assumption.
The emphatic answer to the question in the headline is NO. This franchise refuses to spend real money. After losing two starters, their close and setup guy, they have done relatively nothing to replace them. Jimenez will go elsewhere. And on the offensive side; the Indians struggled mightily last year at the plate. No player hit more than 22 homers. They do not have a legitimate clean-up hitter and have done nothing to address that deficiency, unless you consider a washed up David Murphy, a clean-up hitter.