Jason Giambi expected back sooner than later
March 28, 2014Browns schedule private workout for Derek Carr
March 28, 2014It’s that time of year again! The time when Jon makes up fake gambling lines for the upcoming Indians season and then makes foolish fake prop bets on them.
As a reminder, I make stuff up, then make up more stuff, then after the season we see how I did at making stuff up. Waste of time? Or INCREDIBLE WASTE OF TIME? Let’s get to it.
2.5 starters with at least 150 innings pitched
This probably sounds obscure and meaningless, but the more I think about this season, the more I think the entirety of the team’s success may hinge on the relative health of Justin Masterson, Corey Kluber, and Danny Salazar. If those three stay healthy and pitch to their ability, this team could easily be competing for a playoff spot. If any one of them misses significant time, I fear the drop in performance could be enough to sink the season.
Last season, only two teams had five starters who each pitched at least 150 innings, while another four teams had four such starters. All but one of these teams made the playoffs. Here’s the total list:
You’ll notice that all 10 playoff teams had at least three starters throw 150 innings. I’m not sure if it’s a perfect leading indicator, but for a team whose likely replacements are Josh Tomlin (career ERA 4.92), an erratic Trevor Bauer, and Shaun Marcum’s disintegrating shoulder, we’re going to need our horses to be extra horsey. I’ll take the over here, and cross my fingers.
115.5 stolen bases
Make no mistake about it: 115 stolen bases is a relatively high number. Last season the Indians ranked sixth in MLB with 117 stolen bases (they were ninth in caught stealing, at 36). Teams just don’t steal quite as many bases as they did when I was a kid.
That said the Indians would appear to be a team that could continue to run more than most. While they lost Drew Stubbs to Colorado, they’ll still be fielding Michael Bourn, Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis—all players with fairly robust stolen base numbers. Throw in Aviles, Gomes and Cabrera as high single digit guys and you could make an argument that the team will continue to steal fairly frequently.
On the other hand, the only player who’s actually demonstrated recent success on the bases is Jason Kipnis. Bourn’s stolen base numbers—historically between 40 and 60 each year from 2008-2012—cratered to just 23 last season.1 He’s another year older and slower and perhaps more injury prone (more on that in just a second). Michael Brantley was always a good stolen base guy in the minors, but that’s not translated to success against Big League catchers as of yet, and now that he’s entering his late 20s his speed is likely on the decline. I think Kipnis could be a 30-30 player, but I also think he’s going to lead the team in steals again this season, which means I’m taking the under on this one.
115.5 games played for Michael Bourn
I’ll be quick here because it’s depressing. I think Michael Bourn will struggle to get and stay healthy this year. Call it a hunch, but I’m worried about him. Under.
675.1 Runs allowed
I would argue that last season’s playoff push was more a credit to the Indians’ run prevention skills than their run scoring skills. They ranked seventh in the AL in runs allowed at 662, though they were much closer to the top than the bottom on the aggregate. Here’s a handy histogram:
In other words, the Indians allowed about 33 runs fewer than the average AL team over the course of the season, or 25 fewer runs than the average non-Houston AL team.
The problem is that a lot of things had to go right for that to happen. Scott Kazmir happened. Ubaldo Jimenez happened. Justin Masterson happened. Corey Kluber happened. And that happened.
This year we’re getting a full season of Danny Salazar (hopefully), but otherwise we’re not likely to enjoy everything breaking our way through the rest of the rotation. We’re also losing Drew Stubbs’ excellent glove and replacing it with David Murphy’s meh glove and replacing Lonnie Chisenhall’s meh-glove with Carlos Santana’s glove full of question marks. Our bullpen will probably be a bit better, but our rotation and defense may regress some. I take the over here. Which brings me to run scoring….
750.1 Runs Scored
Again, let’s take a gander at last year’s numbers. The Indians tied for fourth in the AL in runs scored, which was a lovely change from years gone by. Here’s the same histogram, but with runs scored instead of allowed:
You’ll noticethat the Tigers were phenomenally good at run scoring and run prevention, but that’s a story for another day. The average AL team scored about 702 runs and the median team scored 712. The Indians were above both marks at 745 runs, which is probably making you scratch your head about that comment about run prevention carrying us to the playoffs.
For me, it’s all about expectations. When the Indians added Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to the lineup (and Stubbs and a prime year of Kipnis), I expected to score more runs than the average team. I wasn’t expecting the above average pitching performance we got though.
And we got above average run production. And we managed to get it despite a bad year from Michael Bourn and a slightly sub-par year from Swisher. I think Kipnis takes a huge step forward this season. I think Swisher stabilizes the middle of the lineup with Santana enjoying time away from the physical drudgery of catching. I think Michael Brantley nudges his batting average up over .300 (though he still posts a sub .350 OBP) and scores 85 runs himself. We have a long and flexible lineup with a creative manager, and there’s no reason (other than potential injury) to think the offense will do worse than last year. I’m going over, but just barely.
85.5 Total Team Wins
That’s a made up line. Most of the unbiased betting sites and projection systems have the Indians finishing between 79 and 85 wins. I could find many as optimistic as I know we all are. Here’s a quick look at a few:
Wins |
Losses |
|
Fangraphs |
81 |
81 |
Clay Davenport |
85 |
77 |
Baseball Prospectus |
78 |
84 |
Bovada |
80.5 |
81.5 |
But I’m a homer and you are too and let’s be honest if I said 78 wins we’d all take the over because that’s how we roll. So I’m setting the line at 85.5 wins, which would still represent a regression of six to seven wins from last year’s 92 win season.
Based on my runs scored and runs allowed odds above, I’m going to suggest the Indians finish the season with about 755 runs scored and about 695 runs allowed, which would give them a positive run differential of 60 runs. Plugging that into my handy dandy Pythagorean calculator, we arrive at a .541 winning percentage or about 88 wins over 162 games. Big surprise here, but I’m taking the over.
The thing about last season is that the team didn’t really get all that lucky from a Pythagorean perspective: they scored and allowed runs like a 90 win team, and happened to win 92. This year I’m guessing they score and allow runs like an 88 win team, based on some natural regression and a boatload of guesses and wishful thinking. I’m going to predict 86 wins and second place finish in the division to the Tigers. Out of the playoffs, but a fun and enjoyable ride to the end with watchable and compelling September baseball.
—
(Image: Chuck Crow/The Plain Dealer)
- On top of that, his success rate was a crummy 65% [↩]
55 Comments
Good stuff, Jon. Agree SP health may be key, but boy oh boy do I hope you’re wrong about Bourn. I had 85 wins, but a healthy (and effective, defensively) Bourn could be the x-factor they need to push it up closer to 90.
I’ll take the under on the runs scored. Last year didn’t the tribe put up some gaudy numbers on the White Sox? Probably won’t happen again.
The 150 innings pitched x 3 benchmark is a stat I can totally relate to. Such obvious implications: you’re in games, you’re bullpen isn’t overtaxed, most of your staff is having excellent years, you’re probably balancing any long losing streaks with similar winning streaks.
My concern with Bourn was that he simply didn’t look very eager to steal at any time last year. Almost like he knew he no longer has his extra gear and couldn’t outrun bad jumps he jumps on unfamiliar AL pitchers. Not so many base stealers are like Lofton or Rickey Henderson, keeping their explosion into their 30s. And if his legs are starting to go I hope they quickly develop good CF prospects, because Bourn’s ‘s way overpaid for a decent singles hitter with just decent speed.
80-84 wins for me.
All that I gleaned from those charts: poor Astros
Now this we can agree on I hope Bourn can get back to good health. We didn’t see the real Michael Bourn a year ago for whatever reasons. Perhaps it was the change in leagues or him putting pressure on himself with his biggest contract ever and/or maybe he wasn’t completely healthy. I just hope he can return to the Bourn I remember because he was a great spark plug BATTING LEAD-OFF.
(Insert mgbode comment here)
Where he bats in the order is somewhat irrelevant to me; assuming he hits similarly to last year, they’re better off putting him down in the order (don’t care where as long as it’s after the first 3 spots). The way his defense eroded last year concerned me. With a poor infield defense and poor defense in the corner spots in the OF (at least when Murphy isn’t playing), a good-fielding Bourn would be HUGE for this team.
(Sorry, this doesn’t mean I don’t want him to hit better or think it wouldn’t help the team, it certainly couldn’t hurt, but he’s always been a high-K, low-OBP guy and that likely isn’t going to change).
If he hits like a year ago I’m in agreement but that being said he’s my prototypical lead-off hitter. Personally I’d go Bourn, Cabrera, Kipnis, Santana, Brantley, Swisher, Raburn/Murphy, whoever/DH and Gomes but what do I know.
I prefer high-OBP guys up top in the order; after last season, I don’t want Cabrera anywhere near the top 3. Francona really needs to move up Santana in this regard.
Ideally, here’s mine;
Santana
Swisher
Kipnis
After the top-3 spots, it tends to not matter.
I need to remember Disquis uses HTML, and adjust accordingly.
Not me I don’t set a lineup by using just one particular statistical category such as OBP. I’m not an Asdrubal Cabrera fan at all but for me he’s a natural two-hitter everything else considered.
Enjoyed this piece a lot. I have the Indians winning 90 games, but I’ll be honest… everything has to break right for that to happen
What is a natural two-hitter for you?
It shouldn’t be much more than “gets on base frequently”
Apparently a guy who doesn’t hit for power, doesn’t hit for average, doesn’t walk, and strikes out 20% of the time. Sorry, Shamrock. Not hating on you, just ACab.
Oh I agree the Asdrubal Cabrera of last year isn’t my ideal #2 guy I was simply looking at the lineup quickly which is why I not only had Bourn listed (currently on the DL) and nobody at DH.
“nobody at DH”
You misspelled Giambi. No, wait. You got it right.
Also add – you’re healthy.
Natural two hitter for me is a guy who can put the bat on the ball whether it’s to move the lead off man along or not; a guy with a good eye so that he can take pitches so that the lead-off man has an opportunity to steal; a guy who can handle a fastball since if the lead-off man is on and is a threat to steal a la Bourn the #2 guy will most likely see fastballs; he should be able to get on base however i’d be looking at my lead-off guy to have the better OBP; and if possible he can switch hit because I like the options switchies bring to the table.
How’d I do, did I ace it, did I pass, what do I win, will I grow up to be strong, will I be the Browns next QB, will I be your mom’s favorite player?
Oh Steven much much more. Btw Ed wants to join u in the Rock Bottoms, get ’em a t-shirt please!
http://us.cdn281.fansshare.com/photos/macaulayculkin/home-alone-macaulay-culkin-kevin-mccallister-boy-fear-shout-fright-906691578.jpg
Lol, apparently anybody can be the Clowns’ QB
Make or miss the playoffs with 90 wins? I’d say miss.
Is this a team I’m joining?
important note on projected wins. they don’t ever project the high-end of wins for teams. The Dodgers have the MOST projected wins with 90 for 2014. Anyone that wants to bet me that the most wins in MLB this year is 90, please line up with a paypal account.
so, the raw number from most of those projections is not nearly as important as the order ranking that they give. the Tigers are significantly ahead, while the Royals are virtually tied and the White Sox and Twins far behind. just as important (if the Tigers are truly ahead) is that they have us ranked 10th in the AL in a 5team race for the playoffs.
I’d rather QB the Patriots thank you very much but where’s my grade, did I pass?
More nj0 than I. I cannot watch the Astros even if I want to. They are blacked out on my MLB.TV subscription as Austin is considered a secondary market. However, there are no local providers that even offer the Houston Astros channel.
C-. Really, only the OBP matters, but I marked off your grade for jerk-iness
spycam on Giambi at a local mall getting his daily exercise:
http://gifrific.gifrific.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/elevator-old-guy.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AUQOClEBKR8/TouOwXAS52I/AAAAAAAABcw/4Sqd66iLUrU/s1600/The+Expendable+banner.jpg
What, C- that is total bull to the s&%t? Jerk-iness, wtf? I was robbed now I know how some people feel when they take standardized tests!
More like a gang!
Well true he does seem to comment more about his home team then you but wait, didn’t you just comment?
The thing is, as much as we don’t like to admit it as we prefer to build narratives, for anyone to win 95 games, a lot of breaks have to go your way. That’s going to happen for some team that has 90 or so win talent on the field, and they’ll get to 95. But there also will be a team with 90 or so win talent that has more breaks go against them, so maybe the 2013 Nationals.
That’s not right…funny…but not right.
and this paper got an A-
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bjr6eVVCYAAyS_j.jpg
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2014-03-26/unc-academic-scandal-term-paper-rosa-parks-african-american-studies-afam41-niang-oro-north-carolina-mary-willingham
I get that, but I think it needs to be noted when discussing projected wins as a basis for what will happen on the field. there WILL be teams that beat the best of the projections and I have talked with many who didn’t initially realize it.
At Cleveland State that would have only gotten an “B”!
I get that too, but I’m not sure how we can go about predicting who will have the breaks go their way. It would be nice to see projections with a +/- 1 standard deviation.
That reminds me of a bit from an old, old Conan O’Brien – the elderly falls and injuries stamp series.
Stupid their/there mistake cost him his 4.0.
90 could win the division. both the tribe and tigers will be hard-pressed to exceed last year’s records. tigers taking more of a step back
I kind of didn’t hate the Astros’ offseason at all. Farm system has potential impact talent (unfortunately big league team is basically a hole). Not saying they will be good (they won’t) or even .500 (wouldn’t bet on that either), but I liked what they did. I love Mark Appel. Desparately wanted him to fall to the Indians last year. Alas, Fraizer looks like a potential stud as is.
MLB blackout rules are dumb. Sorry bout your luck there.
Can’t say I get the joke. Never saw the movie though.
Shamrock – how you like the BoSox’s opening day centerfielder?
Jackie Bradley Jr? He’s alright although I would have preferred Shane Victorino in CF and someone else in RF.
Just messin’ wit ya homey I saw Grady Sizemore will be starting in center field for the defending MLB champion Boston Red Sox. On behalf of the Red Sox organization I would personally like to welcome all of “Grady’s Ladies” to the organization. I do so with our customary booty smack!
Have you seen Tyler Naquin in Spring Training? He could be in AA to start the year, even being promoted to AAA. Frazier likely moves to RF (which he would profile better but still having CF-esque defense capabilities), overall OF is looking decent but the closest thing to Manny/Belle is Frazier and he’s still in A ball.