Brian Spaeth talks summer movies, the Cavaliers and his Wahoo movie project – WFNY Podcast – 2014-03-27
March 27, 2014The Tribe’s value, Johnny Football pro day, Doug Stanhope and Manchester Orchestra… While We’re Waiting
March 28, 2014Someday it will stop snowing, and someday Mike Ilitch will die.
But until then, the Detroit Tigers are going to spend money without regard to their (or anyone else’s) reality. After failing to extend Max Scherzer last week, the AL Central rival Tigers decided to make two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera the highest paid player in the history of baseball, with an eight year extension through the 2023 season valued at $292 million.
But Jon, you say, eight years would only take Cabrera through the 2021 season! You’re a stupid person at numbering and counting things!
Touche, kind sir or madam. But this deal is a contract extension that doesn’t even kick in for another two years–until after the 2015 season. This may remind you of the Ryan Howard debacle of an extension from a few years back. It reminded me of someone else entirely:
Last year, Miguel Cabrera in his age 30 season was the best hitter in baseball (wRC+).
— jon (@nowimjon) March 27, 2014
In 2006, in his age 29 season, Travis Hafner was the best hitter in baseball. But yes, this is a great idea.
— jon (@nowimjon) March 27, 2014
This contract may end up biting Detroit in the rump–in fact, it probably will. There was little reason to lock up a player at a premium price when there was still two years to determine whether Cabrera’s body would age like a Cabernet or a Cabriolet.
On the other hand, the best team in baseball–who just happens to be a division rival–just locked up it’s best player until I turn 42 years old. It’s pretty hard to feel anything but disgust with that sentence.
126 Comments
And your argument sounds like you are throwing any random thing against the wall and hoping it sticks.
You may not be trying to write a book’s worth of arguments, but you can start with a couple.
I can see where you’re going with the steroids = inflated value. Are you saying that Hafner used steroids? What basis do you have for that? Those top three seasons came after drug testing was implemented. So you’ll have to explain to me a couple things. If steroids were so helpful in turning him into one of the very best hitters in the league, why didn’t he use them before 2004, when no one tested for them? If he was able to use them and beat testing, why didn’t he continue to use them from 2007 on? There’s really no good reason to attribute 2004-2006, and only those years, to steroids, especially, considering that you’ve yet to present any sort of tangible evidence that he did use.
And I’ll admit that I’m saying he’s a good hitter because of both the metrics and what I saw. If you want me to produce a finer result, I’ll pore over more metrics for you, but they seem to have already been said here, and you just willfully ignore them anyway, so I’m not sure it’s worth my time.
Tom Tango just did a metrics-based study about the best batting positions for each player on The Nationals, but not sure. It talked about how, in that specific situation, it made sense to bat the pitcher 8th, etc…
It’s called “The Book” by Tom Tango. But I’m sure you could just ask Steve.
http://www.insidethebook.com/
I won’t go any further than to say “I’m in the business” and I know a lot of guys who used drugs at that level. The NFL is a joke – i’d say 85% of the league uses PEDs. (it sounds silly, but just look at how well kickers are doing these days with long distance FGs, even though the kicking ball is harder than the normal ball)
The WADA came out and proclaimed a success since they only had a handful of positives at the last summer olympics, which only means it was a monumental failure because we KNOW more than 5 people are using PEDs.
Hafner fits the profile: a struggling player turns to PEDs to enhance his game. He succeeds in blossoming as a star. His body loses cohesion (muscles grow too fast for tendons, ligaments, etc…), he gets injured. To be fair, i always say that PEDs help pitchers more than hitters, but that’s another argument.
But Steve, what was his fear-index and intimidation quotient? Can’t judge a man without all the facts.
I agree that a lot of NFL-ers are on PEDs. I’m failing to see how that’s affirmation that Hafner used for just three years. I’m also skeptical of almost across the board negative results, considering that the Biogenesis guys, for the most part, didn’t test positive.
But, for someone who’s “in the business” you don’t seem to know that there is no “profile” for PED user in MLB. Small guys, big guys, fat guys, guys who already play well, and guys who still don’t play well after using have been busted. There’s no possible way to make a guess like that, and you’re only fooling yourself if you are.
And of course, Hafner wasn’t exactly “struggling” before 2004, and he was also having his elbow problems by then.
Don’t bother about Shamrock… he’s a Red Sox fan. #perspective
“They’re happy they will keep the 2nd-best player in the league for likely the rest of his career”
… problem with that is he won’t be the 2nd best player in the league for the rest of his career.
Great to see him perform now, but when we’s 39 in a minor DH role costing $30 million a year something tells me none of those fans will care how good we hwas in 2013/2014.
Not sure; Trout is a lot younger than any of the other guys we’ve seen sign these extensions, though.
Yeah. Because no smart businessman would ever run his business they way the Detroit Tigers have been running for the past half-decade or so. Dude wants a ring before he’s buried. Just think the org will feel the ramifications of his spending long after he’s gone.
You and your numbers, all measuring things and quantifying them. Phooey I say! Phooey!
Yep. Pretty similar to my thoughts on this. (I’ve listened to one Tigers fan on Twitter try to tell me the average bench player will be making around what Cabrera makes by then, but I find that level of inflation to be pretty unrealistic.)
Wow. The tone for baseball talk has really been set this year, and the first pitch hasn’t been thrown. Anger. Browbeating. Insulting. “My facts are better than your facts.” America’s Pasttime! Nothing brings out the vitriol like . . . baseball?
I know what I’ll be doing this summer: commenting about the Browns!
Hafner’s injury history fits the profile. There is such a thing. Not tried and true, but if that were the case it would have its own metric.
Oh just great G.O. You’re going to spend your time commenting on the Browns instead of going out to ballpark to watch the Indians, thus contributing to our low attendance and our inability to re-sign Masterson. Hey everyone, G.O. hates Masterson! (now let’s fight)
Based on my metrics you’ll average 11.44 posts per day (PPD) about the Browns, 1.764 of which will include military references. On the third Wednesday of months that start with J you will leave 0.03 commas out of your third sentence.
Just wanted you to know what you’re in for.
I would bet on a lockout and major overhaul of the system before we see average bench players making $30 million a year.
So what I am supposed to do about the countless other players who don’t fit the profile? When the profile is woefully wrong a lot of the time, it’s time to change the profile.
You don’t have a profile, you have a preposterous narrative.
I would gladly respond to this comment if it had actually included the right metrics. Everyone knows that iMR (included Military References) is an outdated standard. Thus, the 1.764 unnecessarily skews the data. Under any accepted analysis, UbHRMR (Unnecessary but Highly Relevent Military References) is the proper lens. If you really loved comments, you would know that my UbHRMR has CONSISTENTLY been hovering around 0.87.
And did you even factor in Memorial Day? No. You did not. D-Day? Of course not.
Bring some facts, and we’ll talk.
Sassafrassin’ friparippa . . .
Notafinga!
G_O, you specifically indicated summer, which we all know begins on June 21st and goes through September 22nd for 2014. Therefore, referencing Memorial Day and D-Day are outside the realm of the timeframe. Even Flag Day is during the technical springtime.
Lol, so will the rest of Cleveland, regardless of what the Indians do.
Wow. just, wow.
Touché
i mean, this has got to go down as one of the great comments of all-time.
Where’s the WFNY “preferred commenter” thing? (I guess K-Mart didn’t send the check this week)
Hey! Who’s the lawyer, here?
Sheesh. Nerds.
Cabrera will be so much easier to pitch around now, though. It may not hurt his numbers (although I think his power numbers will go down) but it will make Detroit much less fearsome offensively.
Thanks, but my records have that comment as #47 – just of the one’s I’VE posted. (So, somewhere around #49-50, all-time.)