Cavs vs. Jazz Behind The Boxscore: A single triple double!
February 28, 2014Video: Kyrie and Dion both have top ten circus shots of February
March 1, 2014This weekend, I’m hanging out at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston. It’s an annual nerd heaven. I’m in nirvana. I’ve been dying to go for years. I sincerely wish my colleague Craig Lyndall could be here again this year with me too.
Friday was Day One of the jam-packed two-day conference. It’s overwhelming. It’s exhausting. It’s terrific. SSAC is now in its eighth year of existence. Although its purpose and future is debatable — Paul Flannery had a great look in Boston Magazine — it remains a hell of a lot of fun.
To provide an additional insight into my constant live-tweets from the first day, here are some quick thoughts related to the status of analytics in sports and this sensational conference:
— The NFL is about five-ish years behind the NBA, which is about five-ish years behind MLB in the evolution of analytics. Tell me if this sounds familiar: “[T]eams need to stop acting like they’re protecting info during the Cold War.” Sound like the Browns maybe in that infamous Chuck Klosterman article? That’s actually what Bill Simmons wrote about the NBA in 2009.
There’s no doubt that the analytics revolution began in baseball. Bill James, especially, and secondly Nate Silver are treated like superstars at SSAC. Some of the current industry leaders, such as Grantland’s Jonah Keri, are themselves starstruck by James’ presence. The data revolution is underway in basketball and football. They are just a stage or three behind in the life cycle.
— Throughout the conference, the majority of the real oomph is in the conversations that occur between sessions. There are about six 20-minute breaks during the 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. schedule. The hallways are crazy busy during these times — and, somewhat surprisingly, during the sessions too — with masterminds shooting the bull with fellow geniuses and select laypeople. This is where SSAC will always matter; it’s a connecting point for the best analytically inclined people in sports.
— Oddly, there are 700 fewer attendees at SSAC this year. There are “only” 2,000 total. Conference co-founder Jessica Gelman responded to me on Twitter sharing that the move to the downtown Hynes Convention Center was known to limit supply. She responded with the hashtag #demandhigherthanever. Perhaps they’re purposefully restricting supply — a la some sports teams with ticket sales — to artificially boost long-term demand? That’s just a theory. I’ve constantly said the next frontier in sports analytics is the economics/analytics behind SSAC itself. I’m only half joking.
— Undoubtedly, one of the main themes of this year’s conference is what analytics aren’t currently covering in sports. Obviously, this conference has a basketball background; Houston Rockets GM (and proud Cleveland native) Daryl Morey is the other co-founder. Many, many panelists brought up the need to track psychological data, if possible, not just the physiological data now available through SportVU and other places.
This is the much-ballyhooed next key frontier of sports analytics. Three former NBA coaches and one current one, usually among the favorite demographic of panelists, shared such thoughts throughout the day alongside some overall hesitation.
"There's a chemistry and energy that comes with team-ness. I wish there was analytical solution to help here." – George Karl #ssac14
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) February 28, 2014
Stan Van Gundy says impact of personnel is something that's missing within NBA analytics discussion. #ssac14
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) February 28, 2014
"Can you quantity things like how often Dirk touches his teammates, smiles and talks?" Interesting question posed by Brad Stevens. #ssac14
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) February 28, 2014
"Next step for analytics will be how to build chemistry" – Phil Jackson #SSAC14
— Andrés Alvarez (@NerdNumbers) February 28, 2014
— Two underrated heroes of the sports analytics movement: ESPN’s Dean Oliver and former NBA executive Bryan Colangelo. Let’s dive into the history.
Oliver, famous for his book Basketball on Paper (go buy it), invented the “Four Factors” line of thinking in advanced NBA analytics. That was ground-breaking research. He’s practically the Bill James of basketball as one of the long-time statistical experts. Currently, he’s a stats innovator across ESPN properties. He recently created a pass protection stat for NFL offensive lines. Fascinating stuff. Loved what he shared during a talk on Big Data.
5 keys to good sports analytics person, per @DeanO_ESPN: Have to know data, stats, programming, sports and oh communication skills. #ssac14
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) February 28, 2014
Colangelo, who was run out of Toronto last year after many seasons of mediocrity and dismay, actually helped to lay the foundation for today’s NBA analytics innovations. He first instituted high-tech cameras in Toronto. In Phoenix, his Mike D’Antoni-led teams (with current Cavs GM David Griffin in the front office) were focused on fast-paced opportunities at easy baskets. They were credited with being the best at injury prevention and research. Here’s one great tidbit on tanking.
Bryan Colangelo also liked draft wheel. "No assurance to tanking." He admits to it as well. #ssac14
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) February 28, 2014
— Within the conference, there’s an odd dynamic of commercial-esque programming and talking point-laden panels. I attended a different panel on Big Data, which turned out to be an hour-long lunch-time commercial for what SAP is providing for teams and leagues. I came out with very little new information as a fan or media member. The high-profile panels, meanwhile, aren’t necessarily that meaningful either: Most panelists are team employees or business leaders who have a huge incentive to keep their biggest trade secrets close to heart.
Then, are the research papers, already filled with their own controversy as pointed out harshly by Michael Lopez, the only meat of SSAC’s marginal addition to the industry? This is not a purely academic conference. There’s no way that’s the case when these top papers aren’t actually treated rigorously. Mostly, it seems, the value of SSAC attendance is in the behind-the-scenes interactions. That’s why it will continue to exist and provide value for all.
On the macro scale, I don’t think there’s any doubt that SSAC has already and will continue to assist the sports industry through its mass-popularization of analytics. Through the quasi-partnership/sponsorship/family relationship with ESPN, this conference is becoming more and more of a media-accepted festival. It has helped to bridge the gap that remains with the non-analytics crowd. It’s perhaps helping to breed a future of analytically inclined young sports enthusiasts, a topic Dean Oliver discussed with a huge smile. A panel tomorrow on the education of sports analysts particularly intrigues me.
— That all being said, I did learn some great info from the business-focused panels during the day. One panel focused on referee technologies and the intricate balance of getting calls right and making the game a better, faster experience for fans. Zebra Sports’ Jill Stelfox was on the panel with Dean Oliver. She shared some really cool ideas on how player tracking technologies can lead to increased fan engagement. There were lots of Ticketmaster and StubHub representatives who said that they’re just starting to grasp what to do with the massive amount of Big Data they have at their hands for consumer entertainment preferences. I also was intrigued to hear about NASCAR’s HP-powered fan engagement media center.
One of my favorite business talks was a mini-session by NBA’s John Abbamondi, a former San Diego Padres front office executive. He shared how the league office employs a team of 40 people that assist teams in six verticals: ticket sales, sponsorship, marketing/digital, retention, premium and arena development/operations. His sample data was fascinating. It certainly appears that the MLB and NFL central offices aren’t investing as heavily in shared business data and resources among the teams. Abbamondi shared two specific examples here and here.
— I’ve got plenty more to share that I’ll hold off on for another day very soon. For now, here are a number of other Cleveland sports-based tweets I shared during the day. Continue to follow along with me today on Twitter and with the hashtag #ssac14.
George Karl said best/worst NBA teams not that far apart. But many teams "don't know how to win games." Oh hey Cavs. #ssac14
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) February 28, 2014
The SAP football info not that ground-breaking. NFL seems most concerned about secrecy of data. Reminds me of #Browns. #ssac14
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) February 28, 2014
Smiled with @AminNBA when example bobblehesd was none other than Anderson Varejao. #cavs #ssac14
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) February 28, 2014
Good question by @ZachLowe_NBA about now many front office and/or coaching people needed for analytics. Cavs?! #ssac14
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) February 28, 2014
Steve Kerr calling out JJ Hickson not shooting from 2-5 feet because he can't will be fun for #Cavs conspiracy fans RE Amare trade.
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) February 28, 2014
3 Comments
As a stats grad student who really wants to get into the sports industry, I’m really jealous, I hope to get to one of these conferences soon. Might hit up the SABR conference this summer as well.
Anderson Varejao is one of those players that the advanced stats say is dramatically undervalued, even with the injury issues factored in, because he finds ways to win games that don’t involve scoring a lot of points. Remember that long contract the Cavs signed with him years ago? That was a steal for the Cavs.
If you look at these charts, you’ll see who the statsheads thing are useful for the Cavs and who they don’t support at all:
http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/teams/cle
The most interesting parts to me are Kyrie’s thoroughly mediocre numbers, and the fact that according to those stats you’d be better off playing Matthew Delladova than Jarrett Jack.
Good stuff. I keep wondering if I was a few years younger if this would have been an incredible field for me to get into, but alas…
Re: NBA behind behind MLB but ahead of NFL, I’d assume a large portion of that is the makeup of each game. In MLB most activity starts and ends with a single player on each team. In the NBA, while 1-on-1 ball matters, it’s still a 5-on-5 game. And the NFL is by far the most complex, with 11 players on each side and far more situations that impact strategy – in the NBA ultimately every play is designed to get the ball in the hoop, whereas in the NFL each play is its own piece with its own goal, and scoring may not be the goal of any single play.