Cavs vs Magic Behind the Box Score: Signs of a fun April?
April 2, 2014Rocky start, “Smooth” ending: Tribe splits doubleheader in Oakland
April 3, 2014
Tiebreakers: PLAYOFFS!? Well, the Knicks and Hawks are suddenly tied now for the No. 8 seed in the East with the Cavs lurking two games behind. New York and Cleveland each have six left. Atlanta has eight left.
Based on whatever site you might prefer, the odds for the Cavaliers somehow making an insane run to the playoffs are 4-8%. Yes, those odd-making machines aren’t perfect since they still (to different degrees) factor in the time when the Hawks were actually a functional NBA team. They’re 7-20 with a horrendous -7.3 Net Rating since Feb. 4.
So why are the odds still so low for the Cavs, suddenly winners of five of their last six and with a relatively easy schedule left? Tiebreakers. The NBA playoff tiebreakers are head-to-head and then conference record.
Atlanta – The Cavs are 0-2 so far against the Hawks with one game left. They lost this tiebreaker.
Knicks – The teams were 2-2 against each other. But New York currently has a three-game advantage in conference record and a two-game lead overall. Both teams play all six of their remaining games against Eastern Conference opponents. So if they end in a tie, the Knicks win the tiebreaker with a one-game better conference record.
In the event of a three-way tie, Atlanta again has the edge with their already-clinched series victory over the Cavs. Records between the three teams: Hawks 4-2, Knicks 4-4 and Cavs 2-4.
So that’s why this is still so improbable. The Cavs will need to fully surpass both teams to make this playoff run. And even if you think they can finish 5-1 or 6-0, which likely won’t happen, then they still need a bit of help.
—
Age and success: Pretty neat chart over in SB Nation’s Tom Ziller’s article yesterday about age and Net Rating for NBA teams. The Cavs are young and not so good. That’s not surprising.
Some thoughts: It was interesting that they decided to use Net Rating instead of record. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a proponent of efficiency statistics as much as the next guy. But the Pistons, who have been Atlanta-like horrendous of like, have a better efficiency mark than the Cavaliers. Think of that what you will.
Also: Even with that in mind, there remain relatively few teams better and younger than Cleveland. Based on record, only New Orleans. Based on efficiency data, New Orleans, Sacramento and Detroit. It’s not like any of those teams are that much better, though.
If you recall from last year, I showed in The Diff that the average 23-to-25-win team improved by eight wins in the following season. The Cavs already have made a seven-win improvement. They’ll likely make a double-digit jump when it’s all over. That’s perfectly OK. It’s all OK.
—
Extra time off: FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris has an intriguing interview with hot-shot Indians pitcher Danny Salazar. The topic at hand: His team-prescribed training regimen after his August 2010 Tommy John surgery.
Salazar shared that the Indians “always go for 12 [months] for everyone,” in terms of their first live-game pitching after surgery. “They give you an extra two months, just in case.” The usual recognized time frame is nine-to-10 months.
Perhaps that extra two months on the front end can lead to more sustained success on the back end? The Indians jumped Salazar’s innings from 87.2 in 2012 to 145 in 2013. That’s a larger than normal difference. Reportedly, the “training wheels are off” now in 2014. Fascinating debate, as always.
—
Larry Nance’s son is the coolest: Yes.
https://twitter.com/Larrydn22/status/451094678134214656
If you were paying attention, the Revere High School product had a breakout season for the Wyoming Cowboys this year. The 6-foot-8 junior averaged 15.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 2.1 blocks, all career highs. He made the First-Team All-Mountain West squad despite tearing the ACL in his right knee in mid-February
—
NEOMG Y OMG: Yeah, this “stop making typos” staff memo isn’t a good look for the Northeast Ohio Media Group. Kudos to Cleveland Scene’s Vince Grzegorek for this post. Vince is a good friend of WFNY. This is just insane. If you wanted edited work, edit it. Maybe.
11 Comments
1. You know who else was a hoops star for Wyoming? The immortal Fennis Dembo.
2. Nice to see NEOMG trying to take their jobs seriously. And as long as you’re on that SCENE page, take a peek at the Bruce Drennan clip. Pretty funny.
Cavs, you had ONE job…
that’s great. And when they miss the playoffs by a game they can think back on all the December nights they tanked, with zero effort against bad teams and blowing big leads against decent ones when they decided the game was over in the third quarter.
That picture breaks my heart. It’s like seeing your house torn down or your best friend lying on the ground hurt. Somebody fix it, quick!
A SUCCESSFUL lottery pick will fix it…
If the Cavs had won that 2OT game against Atlanta in December they would be in the driver’s seat right now. Our schedule is as easy as it gets, so winning 5 more is do-able. NY controls its own destiny but their schedule is brutal, and Atl is in free fall. Unfortunately I think one of those tie breakers will edge us out.
I don’t care about lottery scenarios because at this point, with such a young team, our most logical path to improvement is FA or trades, both of which could be enhanced by a playoff appearance.
re “typos,” see attached. cle-dot-com still has the wrong garoppolo spelling in the headline as of 10:51 this morn. like: this is the future browns qb pee-dee… you’re the sports section of record…
lookit, i know garoppolo is an odd spelling and i never get it right the first time — which is why i check to make sure i have right every time.
Jimmy-G works for me 🙂
Do we wait until the 2nd round for him though? Or do we need to snare him at 26? That is a pretty big question with all the teams that need a QB and his stock rising.
I still haven’t seen enough of him to form a definitive opinion. He seems to have the skillset needed and did well at leading for the Senior Bowl week. But, I am a little worried about Babers being his HC (Art Briles disciple, which means he’ll have the same learning curve as most spread QBs).
That being said, the little I have seen has been impressive. Bortles and Manziel (and yes, Teddy) can have bad feet when moving in the pocket. Jimmy-G just doesn’t seem to ever have bad feet. He steps into his throws and just has a calm presence back there. That is even with pressure (which can lead him to walking into sacks, but I’ll take it to have consistent feet).
Everyone seems to heap praise on his release, but I don’t see that much different there except his body (from his feet) is always in such great position that he makes good throws nearly every time.
The big question is that since he isn’t a power thrower and depends on his accuracy, will his feet (and hence throws) leave him once he gets a bigtime boost up in competition level. He didn’t play the toughest teams and had the Briles-system humming to help deflect some of the defensive pressure too. It’ll be different in the NFL and sometimes those mechanics go with it.
And, of course, he isn’t a RGIII outside the pocket. He’s a pocket mobile guy who will extend plays by staying behind the LOS. Of course, that can be a good thing because he knows he needs to keep his eyes downfield. He just won’t likely pick up too many junk yards for us either on the ground. From the little I have seen he always does a stop-n-pop throw on rolls and moving which may get him sacked in the NFL with a fast-DE in pursuit. Something to consider.
And, he’s got small hands. Not Frye-sized hands, but definitely on the small side at 9″. Gotta worry about the fumbles in the cold weather with a slick ball.
The first attorney I worked for used to make me sit there and (painfully) watch him review my work. A single pen stroke would send shock waves of anxiety–knowing that after 2 or 3, I’d get a tirade of F bombs, and stuff literally thrown at me. A stupid typo/misspelling? That was instant death. So I have little sympathy for Quinn’s paper “rant.” Toughen up writers. It’s your occupational hazard.
Atlanta’s schedule is pretty easy too which is unfortunate for the Cavaliers.
LN Jr’s twitter profile photo is a carbon copy of his dad. Those were the days!