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May 2, 2014In what has been the first month of the season, we have watched our Cleveland Indians kick the ball around the field, hit sub-Mendoza line with runners in scoring position, fail to pitch deep into games, and lose six in a row in California. Other than that, they were great!
Baseball is a six-month trek. It’s a marathon season, not a sprint. How many times have we seen teams struggle out of the gate, only to catch fire mid-summer and get right back into the mix for a division title? I’m not saying this version of the Indians can do that, but they are certainly capable. The core of this team is, for the most part, the same group that won 92 games a season ago. But judging by the first month on the field, you probably couldn’t tell.
Terry Francona is going to earn his money over the next couple of months. The majority of the games the Indians have played in thus far have been close. Pitching and defense are going to be a huge part of said games. The 2014 Indians have been reminiscent of my son’s little league team when it comes to defense—they rank dead last in in the American League. Worst of all it is the timing of these errors.
Take Monday night for example. Nick Swisher boots an easy grounder in a tie game in the eighth inning, which turned into the winning run when Mike Trout’s RBI single put the dagger in the Tribe’s heart. Making matters worse in that loss was Francona’s head-scratching decision to pitch to the best player in baseball with first base open and one out in the eighth inning.1
Swish’s error was par for the course. Between The Bro and his ground ball issues, Jason Kipnis’s yips on throws to first2, Asdrubal Cabrera’s usual lack of range, and Yan Gomes’s regression behind the plate, the defense has truly killed the Indians this season. While Michael Bourn has great range, he has missed cut-off men too many times thus far. I cannot recall an Indians team that was so poor defensively. I know it has only been a month, but errors are a problem seemingly every single night.
The fundamentals of this team have been putrid. They aren’t moving runners in key situations. Gomes’ eighth-inning at-bat Tuesday night after David Murphy lead off the inning with a walk in a one-run game was awful—he struck out on three pitches. The base-running leaves a lot to be desired as well. Then there are the response runs.
Watching the Indians offense score runs this season has been an adventure to say the least. When they actually do come through putting a crooked number on the board, the other team seems to be immediately returning the favor. When your offense delivers, it is of the utmost importance that whoever is on the mound needs to respond by shutting down the opponent right away. Instead Indians pitchers have given up 47 response runs in 28 games.
This team if rife with issues right now, there is no denying it.
For this team to succeed, it has to get more from the middle of its order and from the starting rotation. Offensively, Francona is getting next to nothing from his biggest bats. Carlos Santana (.151/.313/.593) did hit two homers this week in Anaheim, but heading into that series, he was in the midst of a 3-for-50 slump. Imagine if he wasn’t drawing walks. I believe Carlos will be fine. The position switch has definitely affected him. Who would have though the problem with Santana would be the bat, not the glove?
Kipnis (.234/.354/.748) started slowly last April before having monster months in May and June. The hope is that we will see that again, assuming his side injury doesn’t require a DL stint3. Swisher (.211/.287/.617) thrived in New York when he hit down in the order in a New York lineup loaded with All-Stars. Last year he got a pass because he actually came here to become a major part of the culture change. The shoulder injury that plagued him is supposed to be in the rearview mirror. However, things don’t look any different for Swish at the dish. I see lots of strikeouts and frustrating at-bats.
These are the two- three- and four-hitters in your lineup and the Indians are getting essentially next to nothing from them. I can’t even get worked up about Cabrera’s lack of production (.220/.297/.627) because at this point, he is what he is–a declining player on the final year of his deal. We all know he won’t be back next season as the future (Francisco Lindor) will take over at short. You also knew a regression from both Gomes (.250/.289/.706/seven errors) and Ryan Raburn (.164/.217/.398) was coming.
For the month of April, the Indians offense went .232/.313/.668 with just 19 home runs while averaging 3.8 runs per game. In four less games last April, they hit 36 homers and averaged 5.0 runs per game4.
Imagine where this offense would be without the contributions of Michael Brantley and Murphy. Even Lonnie Chisenhall has surprised us all, looking terrific at the plate (.362/.412/.901). Francona is still cautious about over-using Lonnie, almost in the same way he did with Raburn a year ago. He has moved him up in the order a couple of times, but Tito won’t use Lonnie against lefties. He has been only given one at-bat against a southpaw and got a hit. With the offense struggling so badly, you would think Chisenhall would be getting more of a chance, but so far Francona has resisted.
It has only been a month, but the Indians have no chance if the offense continues down this same path.
As for the rotation, the back end has been a mess and the so-called “ace” has been completely inconsistent. It took one month for Carlos Carrasco to flame out and get replaced. The heir will most likely by Trevor Bauer who has been dominant in Columbus and thrived in a sport start against San Diego three weeks ago. Not far behind is Josh Tomlin hasn’t allowed a run in his last two Triple-A starts, including Thursday night’s complete game, three-hit shutout in Durham. Danny Salazar was expected to take a big leap as the future of the Tribe rotation, with that future being now. That hasn’t happened as Danny has been just as shaky as Carrasco. In his last start in San Francisco, however, the Salazar we all expected to see reappeared as he held the Giants to one run in seven innings. We need to see more of that.
Zach McAllister and Corey Kluber have given Francona exactly what he expected from them—solid starts deep into games which have given his team a chance to win. The same can be said for Justin Masterson I suppose, but when you are the team’s alleged No. 1 starter, you have to be better what he has shown. Masterson has made six starts and has yet to register a win. This has nothing to do with run support; Justin just hasn’t been that great (4.84 ERA/1.50 WHIP). His problem against left-handed batters has resurfaced as well; they are hitting .314 against him, while righties are at .208. There has been a documented slow-down in his velocity that hasn’t helped, but I also believe the pressure of pitching for a big contract may be weighing on him. He still has yet to put together back to back quality seasons and this is a big year for him. It hasn’t gotten off to a great start.
Yes, the Indians are 11-17 and in last place in the AL Central, but nobody is running away with anything. You know who else is in last place and under .500? The Tampa Bay Rays, a team that many picked to go to the World Series. There are some positives signs: Murphy has been a huge addition (.282/.360/18 RBIs); Brantley has kept up his knack for hitting with runners in scoring position (.310/17 RBI); the bullpen anchors–Bryan Shaw, Cody Allen, Marc Rzepcynzski, and closer John Axford have all been excellent; veteran Scott Atchison has taken over the Matt Albers role and handled it well; Kluber and McAllister have anchored the rotation.
This off day couldn’t have come at a better time for the Indians. We turn the page to May and get a refreshed Tribe coming home to face off with the upstart Chicago White Sox. It should be interesting to see if they can respond and turn things around quickly. It will be Salazar’s turn again as he faces off with lefty John Danks, who is usually a Tribe punching bag, but beat the Indians on April 10 with six innings of three-run ball.
- Yeah, I know who was on deck (Albert Pujols) but I’d rather take my chances on getting a ground ball with a slow runner at the plate then pitching to Trout. [↩]
- This is a real budding problem that nobody seems to be talking about [↩]
- Which appears to be coming with the rumors that Jose Ramirez is on his way to Cleveland [↩]
- Remember, Mark Reynolds looked like the AL MVP that first month, then was cut later in the season [↩]
93 Comments
That opening pic says it all about the month of April.
I’m afraid this may just be more of a continuation of the Cavs’ “season of huh”…
Here’s the problem:
1. We didn’t acquire any quality starting pitchers.
2. We didn’t acquire quality right-handed batters.
TD Dery’s headline woefully understated.
Yes and Yes with one added word: power
Could not agree more.
You only have five starting pitchers and we let two of them from last season go. You can not do that and expect similar results.
Also, last season our main weakness was a struggling offense. That issue was not addressed. Yes, Murphy has played well to date but this team needs a 300 hitter.
Here’s another problem
“We didn’t acquire”
The expectations among the fanbase about the ease for this franchise to go out and buy quality players.
We have seven right now, two that are too good to hold in AAA much longer.
“this team needs a 300 hitter.”
Sigh.
yes, the play on the the field has been universally horrible, but what’s almost more concerning to me is that francona seems to think that nothing is amiss and that printing the same lineup card out and effectively xeroxing it 162 times is the answer.
it’s like he has absolutely zero concept that high OBP guys should bat at the top of the lineup. the lineup the other day with aviles and swisher at 2-3? my god. and don’t even get me started on the numerous times cabrera has batted leadoff, while simultaneously keeping the only guys hitting mired in the bottom half of the order. hey- maybe all santana needs to break out of his slump is to hit a few more double play balls into the teeth of the shift – better keep him batting 4th!
i know francona has the world’s largest mancrush on swisher, but batting a guy who’s striking out in 30% of his at-bats (and with no power) in the 2 or 3 spots every day is sheer madness. it’s frustrating as hell to watch a manager refuse to do anything about one of the few things he can actually directly control – the lineup.
So are you presuming that Swisher’s true talent level has changed?
“Also, last season our main weakness was a struggling offense.”
Struggling? We were tied for 5th in all of baseball in runs scored per game. There’s plenty to criticize the Indians about, but at least get your facts straight.
i believe he was clearly declining last year and that his decline may be taking on a more rapid pace.
He had a 117 OPS+ last year after a 118 career mark coming into 2013. He had 3.8 WAR in 634 PAs after averaging 3.2 per 650 PAs coming into 2013.
His raw numbers declined because the run environment keeps dropping, 2013’s 4.17 runs per team per game was the lowest MLB has seen since 1992, and more importantly, he had to switch from Yankee Stadium to a pitchers park.
I understand this is a sensitive issue and I’m not trying to offend anyone but what’s your point? I thought the pitching was superb last year and it was the offense that failed to get it done
You’re right I don’t know the numbers but I watched every game and my take away was that we beat up on horrible teams and then struggled to drive in runs against legitimate clubs.
So what’s your facts?
This. This is good stuff.
“what’s your facts”
Legitimate LOL.
good points, all, but something certainly looks wrong with him this year – what little contact he’s making is largely weak fly outs, and he’s been striking out a ton (even more than he normally does) – both of which would indicate to me a concerning drop in bat speed. and he’s looked extremely stiff at first – i almost think he must be hiding an injury.
the real question is, if you’re francona, how many more at-bats can you afford to leave a guy getting on base at a .287 OBP clip in the 2nd most important slot in the lineup? francona is managing like he thinks everything is going just fine.
Acquire or develop. Either way you have to pay them.
Where’s our Joey Votto? Where’s our Joe Mauer? Where is our Miguel Cabrrera?
Why the complex? You think Cincinnati or St. Louis or Detroit are cities that different than Cleveland? Why?
“he’s been striking out a ton”
Which is happening all around the league. Team K/9 is up to 7.9, the highest the league has ever seen, and, just to keep the comparison the same, 41% higher than 1992 (which had 5.6 k/9)
And how long do I leave a guy with a career .360 OPS in over 5000 PAs in the two spot? More than about 100 PAs.
St. Louis and Detroit certainly are when it comes to MLB markets.
Detroit has twice the MSA, and beats Cleveland in average income in those MSAs.
St. Louis, by being the furthest MLB team both South and West for 50 years has expanded a media market well beyond the St. Louis MSA. Meanwhile, Cleveland, tightly packed by Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Cincinnati, had no such luck.
Seven quality starters? BS! Who are the two in AAA, Bauer and who else? Bauer the guy who has no track record who you are hoping will pitch like he has in the minors only in the majors. Gimmie a break. No what you have is your opinion and your hope. Just like everyone else.
If you’re impressed by Bauer, you should see what Tomlin did last night.
Well perhaps he meant they could have used a power hitter who would have helped the offense better as opposed to a mix of platoon, on-base guys continually having to overachieve in order for the team to throw out the statistic, one time mind you, that they were tied for 5th in all of baseball in runs scored per game. Remember once is a fluke not a trend. How’s 2014 working out so far?
I’m just sayin’, period.
Yea it is Steve because they have shown an inability to draft them. So how does this franchise get quality players Mr. Answer/Excuse man?
You are right pay no mind to the man behind the curtain named Steve Dolan!
http://www.kavistechnology.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/oz-wizard-behind-the-curtain-769602.jpg
if his past performance was somehow capable of winning us games in 2014, i’d be more inclined to agree with you.
i certainly see what you’re saying, but batting him further down him the lineup so we’re not starting off every game with a 1-2-3 inning is something that should at least be considered. again, it’s less the poor performance of individual players that concerns me, and more francona’s utter refusal to investigate constructing a lineup that isn’t 4 almost surefire outs batting 1-4.
And yet, they still won 92 games last year after a slow start in April. I swear, you’d think we had a team that couldn’t sniff 70 wins.
It was over 162 games. No, that does not preclude us from improving (or needing to improve) the 2014 offense by acquiring player X, Y, or Z. But to say our main weakness in 2013 was a struggling offense is just plain wrong.
5th in all of baseball in runs scored per game. Not sure what else I can say. And yeah, we scored less runs against better teams. That’s what makes them better teams, right?
“so we’re not starting off every game with a 1-2-3 inning”
How much more often are we starting out 1-2-3 than the average team?
“more francona’s utter refusal to invesigate constructing a lineup”
What’s the lineup then? I get the frustrating, but those guys are our best hitters, and the alternative is guys we never would have put at the top of the order.
Did he give up 9 runs in 4.2 innings to the Mighty Marlins?
With the combo of slow starts and such horrible defense, it’s fair to ask what sort of training camp Tito ran this year. He spoke about letting veterans slowly prepare for the long grind but makes me wonder whether we’re already viewing the ugly downside of the player-friendly approach that his players love so much.
Looks to me like Swisher, Gomes, Kipnis and sometimes Bourn are rusty in standard defensive fundamentals. Maybe they weren’t made to work as hard on them in February and March as in past years.
Ok, then clearly the problem was pitching. And how did we address that problem?
Here’s my thing – if we really are as bad or nearly as bad as we’ve played in April, adding Nelson Cruz + Irvin Santana wouldn’t have made a lick of difference. Those guys have been worth 1.3 WAR. But if you’re not into all that number stuff, lets be generous and say they won us three more games. So now we’re 14-14 with ACab, Swisher, and all those other players that suck and are terrible and should be gone and blah blah blah.
Basically – If we’re as bad as everyone here seems to think, two or three guys aren’t going to make a difference.
Ah. So it’s a geographical problem. Gotcha.
LEGITIMATE LOL
7th in the AL in R/G. But since R/G is a reflection on defense and pitching, FIP is a better indicator. In that, we were 3rd in the AL. And our pitching has actually been pretty good this year considering the HORRENDOUS defense we’ve played. (As an aside, at the top of my criticisms of the front office list is the putrid defensive in-field we’ve put together.)
Our front office showed some faith in our young pitchers. Maybe that’s a mistake, but that’s what they did. Considering all the question marks and price tags on the FA pitching that was out there, I really can’t blame them for doing what they did.
In baseball, FA can only do so much. And, like I said, if this team is fatally flawed (which it very well could be), adding a high priced FA pitcher at the cost of $15M a year and a draft pick would have been counterproductive both in terms of long-term on-field planning and short-term financial considerations.
One year = fluke when they repeat it get back to me.
Basically – If we’re as bad as everyone here seems to think, two or three guys aren’t going to make a difference.
You have no way of knowing this at all the same way you and Steve expect the people who don’t overvalue this team they could say the same to you. If you think Cruz and Santana would have represented only a marginal improvement that’s your opinion not fact. They may not have represented a significant improvement but they sure would have helped. But for argument purposes, no one in their right mind would have expected the Cleveland Indians to spend for one let alone both of those players.
It’s a market size problem. Pretty apparent when you take a look at how baseball works.
And yeah, we’ve been terrible at developing our own drafted talented. That seems to have changed a bit since what’s-his-name took over the draft.
As for our Votto, Mauer, etc. (*slight shudder as I open up this can of worms*)…….. his name was Grady Sizemore. Over four years, he averaged 6+ WAR a season. That’s more than Votto and less than Cabrera, but awesome nonetheless. People forget how great Sizemore was and how integral he was to the franchises plans. But he broke.
“If you think Cruz and Santana would have represented only a marginal improvement that’s your opinion not fact.”
How much would they have helped?
The fact is that marginal talents don’t contribute even a win a month.
I do know. A lot of research has been done into how much value a player adds to a team in terms of wins and loses. You may not like this research and it may not be perfect, but it has given us a pretty clear idea of what a player can add to a team. Baseball is not like the NBA where one or two games turn chumps into champs.
All of baseball is now predicated on this research. All teams make their decisions based on these facts. It has revolutionized the game. It sucks in a way. Nerds and spreadsheets have taken over the game, but that’s the way it is. Sorry, but guys like Cruz and Santana would not have made that much of a difference.
I know – you’re going to disagree and say numbers are stupid and so on. Fair enough.
I’m sure the goalposts won’t be moved an inch then.
Not all. The Diamondbacks seemed to have turned back the clock in some for some of their decision-making.
True. And the Twins seems to have no faith in the concepts of DIP statistics. So yes, I did overstate my case some the vast majority of teams have joined the sabermetric revolution…
And it shows.
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
Ten Ks in 89 pitches is impressive at any level. 70 strikes, 19 balls. Sheesh.
A finely reasoned, well supported rebuttal. I expect nothing less.
You couldn’t find a goalpost with both hands you just don’t want to face the fact that you and nj0 will support and defend the Indians regardless. Now so we are clear I don’t say this is bad or wrong I just want you to admit it clearly because you two diminish, deny and dismiss anyone who says anything different. This is when I have the problem. If you want to be a homer then just be a friggin’ homer and leave it at that don’t try and conflate things by throwing advanced metrics for one statistical category and tell everyone it’s a fact when it’s simply your opinion.
Now it’s Friday and so have a nice day!
Another difference of opinion: Cruz and Santana are not marginal talents hell if Swisher could come here and play like he has and be defended by the likes of you then I’d hate to see what you’d say about either Cruz or Santana. I mean do you watch games or do you just go to baseball statistics sites and regurgitate what they produce?
It’s like you and Steve are of the same mind if I was you I’d be scared!
Listen brother you can believe whatever you want that’s your business and I personally don’t care. I’m not even trying to change your mind. You and Steve can follow your advanced statistics all you want and you can continue to throw them out in defense of the Indians. I expect you will need plenty of ammunition as I predicted and warned before the start of the season.
I won’t quibble on the adjective needed to describe Cruz or Santana. Swisher doesn’t contribute a win per month either. Only elite talents do.
I process as much information as is available when making a decision. I’m not sure why sports is one of the fields where that isn’t deemed socially acceptable.