NFL Draft: My top three first-round scenarios for the Browns
May 6, 2014WFNY on the 2014 NFL Draft: Joe Gilbert’s Top Five Safeties
May 6, 2014
One of the draft mantras heard in and around Cleveland is the never-ending rhetoric regarcing “safe” picks. For some, Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins is a safe pick. For others it’s one of the top offensive tackles. Almost nobody considers any of the quarterbacks safe picks and while I totally understand why, it’s wrong.
Pick your favorite cliché. Boom or bust, hit or miss. Manning or Leaf, McNabb or Couch. In that frame of reference, it would appear that quarterbacks aren’t safe picks. How about this frame of reference though? The Cleveland Browns’ Opening Day starters since 1999 are Tim Couch, Kelly Holcomb, Jeff Garcia, Trent Dilfer, Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson, Jake Delhomme, Colt McCoy and Brandon Weeden.1 So tell me again how safe picks have worked out for filling the team’s most important need. That’s why I’m here to tell you that there’s no “safer” pick for the Browns this year than a quarterback at No. 4, and that quarterback is Johnny Manziel.
I love Terry Pluto, but I disagree with his column from Monday. He stated that the Browns should “run away” from Manziel due to his propensity to run the football. The idea is that running the ball in the NFL is a surefire way to get a quarterback hurt. While I agree that Johnny Manziel’s running is a risk factor for his transition to the NFL, let’s look at the stats a bit.
In his case, Pluto points out that in two years at Texas A&M, Johnny Manziel had 343 carries. In RG3’s final two years at Baylor he had 328 carries. So this means Johnny Manziel is even more likely to run than RG3? Not so fast.
Johnny Manziel did run the ball 343 times in his college career, but let’s look at the trend. In his Heisman-winning season, Manziel ran the ball 201 times for 1,410 yards and 21 touchdowns. In 2013, Manziel ran 142 times for 752 yards and only nine touchdowns. Robert Griffin III is just the opposite. In his final two years, he did run the ball 328 times, but he was trending in the wrong direction. He had 149 rushes in 2010 and 179 in 2011.
For reference, Robert Griffin III had 120 rushes in his rookie season over 15 games with Washington under the Shanahans. If the Browns were to draft Johnny Manziel and he finds his way to the field in his rookie season, I’d hate to see him rushing anywhere near that much. But there’s no reason to think based on the way Johnny Manziel trended the last two years that he isn’t naturally moving toward a more traditional quarterback role anyway, or at least more-so than RG3 was.
The evidence doesn’t stop there either. On the passing side of the ledger, consider that Manziel threw 11 more touchdowns (37 total) than he did in that previous year. In a column recently penned by ESPN’s Stats and Info department, we get to dig a bit deeper in Manziel the Passer.
One of the most underrated parts of Manziel’s game is his accuracy from the pocket. He led all AQ players this season with a 73.5 completion percentage from inside the pocket. He completed at least 65 percent of such passes in every game during his sophomore season except for the Aggies’ loss to LSU.
Manziel was not just completing short throws as a result of Texas A&M’s spread offense. One out of every four passes he attempted from the pocket traveled at least 15 yards. On such throws, Manziel completed an SEC-high 54.9 percent, more than 15 percentage points higher than the AQ average (39.5 percent).
What you see here is a marked difference in a player moving away from that rushing style. It seems that given the right coaching and the right system, there’s little doubt that trend couldn’t or wouldn’t continue for Manziel.
The point here isn’t even totally about Johnny Manziel. I’ve made no secret of the fact that he’s my choice. I think his off-the-field exploits have people overthinking things. Manziel played at the highest level, against the toughest competition and has the most impressive game tape of any of the other QB draft prospects as a result.2 Is he a little bit small? Sure. Again, try not to overthink this stuff. Big, statuesque guys with rocket arms might fit some archetype of what a quarterback should be, but we’re not casting Bo Callahan. We’re trying to field a team that will finally win more games than it loses and that’s much easier to do with a star at quarterback.
And that’s why the safest pick on Thursday goes against the grain of what people think a safe pick should be. The safest pick isn’t about finding the guy who can give you the most starts, guaranteed at just any position on the field. It’s about picking the guy who can make the biggest impact for the Cleveland Browns where they need it most. It isn’t about finding the safest pick in the little vacuum of draft night; this is about making the safest pick for the Cleveland Browns franchise as a whole. As much as I’m rooting for Brian Hoyer, I just don’t see how the “safe pick” is going into this season with Hoyer, Vince Young, Tyler Thigpen and Alex Tanney. Not when they could presumably have a chance to pick Johnny Manziel.
53 Comments
I’m all aboard the Manziel Megabus, but all I fear is that this discussion leading to Thursday will lead to some minor disappointment. Fully preparing myself for one of the offensive linemen.
you mean ‘…on Saturday’?
You…c’mere, let me show you what I think of JFF…
http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view2/1160383/the-joker-pencil-trich-o.gif
[Plants foot, flawlessly executes a Silly Season Week 180 Degree Pivot from his previous comments]
Craig, I can channel your attitude by remembering my thoughts when we were still watching the Browns in 2013. Not only is it imperative that they quickly get The QB (rather than hope a 30-something veteran of multiple teams with 4 career starts and a wonky knee can carry you for a while), they might consider drafting two, one in the first and another in the third. Absolutely, the Ravens and Steelers and even Cincy can crush you without QB pressure. But you can’t take playoff spots from them – beat them head to head – without a QB capable of beating their pressure. With his own plays.
I also like the idea of a fiery HC, a fiery QB, and a calmer OC that would try to channel the kid’s fire rather than try to stop him from doing what he does best: see the field, buy time and make a play. A risky move? Yep, but at 4 wins, 5 wins, 4 wins, 5 wins, etc. what the hell are we risking?
[And now: back to my “sure dominant player” strategy]
WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH
MANZIEL IS SAFE
http://media.gizmodo.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/flames-bus-640×360.jpg
I’d take Watkins and try to build an offense that makes it very easy for a competent QB (i.e. not Brandon Weeden) to succeed. However, I’ve come around Manziel and won’t be disappointed if the Browns take him. The potential is there for that superstar player that the Browns haven’t had since Bernie.
OK, I can’t hide it anymore.
GIVE ME JOHNNY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is the final stage of Draftitis. Overcome by mock drafts and rumors, the nervous system completely collapses as the brain becomes incapable of rational thought and succumbs to delusion. It becomes easier for the host to accept fantasy than deal with the overwhelming din of draft analysis.
that is impressive upper body strength, he really CAN make all the throws.
Craig, Craig, Craig. You’ve been working too hard, my boy. The strain is beginning to show. As soon as this draft is over, I hope you can take some well-earned rest. Kick back. Clear your mind. Maybe polish off a bottle of good red.
Manziel a safe pick. Lordy, Lordy, Lordy.
(SEE WHAT YOU’VE DONE TO THIS MAN, ROGER GOODELL!!!)
should have grabbed Matt Schaub.
I’m a 42 reg – for the straightjacket.
I will not be upset if Manziel is our choice at #4. But, cmon, safe? Now, that is just silly. Way too many unknowns. Really, no QB outside a guy like Peyton or Luck is truly safe. Cam, Stafford, and Ryan weren’t safe. If we pick a QB it is shooting for the moon, it is not safe.
(also: no reason to believe if we don’t pick a QB at #4 we won’t pick a QB. It just might be that our FO doesn’t see much difference between the top4 guys and Jimmy-G, Aaron Murray, or someone there. And, Connor Shaw for QB3 is still my preference regardless of any other pick or signing).
oh, don’t worry. they come with fully adjustable belts now.
Kanick posted some interesting scouts’ takes on the QB class. Pretty interesting read.
I have a really, Really bad feeling JFF is going to be a Brown when this is all said and done.
Absolutely. Has there ever been a truly safe pick?
Not lying, I will be bummed if it’s an OL. Because that’s how the Cleve fan brain works this week. Like thinking you’re driving around, shopping for the best sound system ever and instead being dropped off at Home Depot for drywall. Yeah, you get it later but what a buzzkill when the Cavs and Tribe suck.
*unwrap unwrap unwrap*
*stares at socks”
“Tell your Grandma – thank you.”
…
…
“Tell your Gran…”
“Thank you, Grandma.”
I agree with ya there Craig. Go big or go home. I like Manziel as a QB, not a running QB. He reminds me a lot of Steve Young, with his ability to make quick decisions and create plays. He is a diehard competitor, and is smart to boot. I would be excited to see him come to us…
Jim Brown.
Just ask him.
I agree, any of the top3 could take him, but I think the odds are in favor of him falling to our pick and I think we’d take him if he’s there.
IMO, most likely picks and these may be 51% on some of them, but still:
#1 Clowney (Houston or Atlanta)
#2 Robinson (unless they trade Bradford)
#3 Watkins (supposedly want to be safe – regardless of Craig’s classification on JFF)
agreed. some great insight in those posts.
you forgot, when you’re young. now? love getting fresh socks. such a nice cozy feel putting on those fresh never worn socks. man, I’m old.
ah, but Greg Robinson is when you decide that it’d be more fun if you rent a jackhammer for the demolition work.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9KVTaF_FJ_I/UuedE6SpoFI/AAAAAAAAAdQ/1ILwKazY6h4/s1600/Robinson.gif
Part of this is because of the total crappiness of the Browns, and part of this is because I loathe what Goodell has done to this draft by pushing it back so late, but I find myself honestly not caring a lick who we pick at #4.
Granted, I will at some point down the road, but right now, i just want the damn thing to be over with.
At my worst, I find myself feeling about Manziel like I did in 2007 when rumors had us taking Quinn at #3. (And that feeling was, call me a cab because I will do seven shots of strong Irish whiskey if this happens. Thankfully it did not. Heart you, Joe!)
On the other hand, I feel like even if Manziel turns out to be a great NFL quarterback, some other hole will appear in the Browns’ dam and they’ll be 4-12 again, so I find myself wondering if it even matters at all.
I could literally be talked into Manziel, Watkins, Evans, Robinson, Matthews, Mack, and potentially another player not named. If they make the draft late enough in the year, you could talk me into just about anything, so long as you end the damn wait time.
I’ve got these super plush “athletic” socks I wear with my boots working on the house or in the yard, and they make me smile every time I put them on.
Brady Quinn vs. Johnny Manziel is an insult to Johnny Football. They might have the same ultimate NFL fate, but the comparison seems ludicrous to me. Heisman winner who played QB in the SEC and shows extraordinary abilities beyond a typical archetype QB vs. Brady Quinn.
I think he is just referring to over-hyped QB, which JFF is even if he is that good. I do remember that one of the arguments I used against Brady Quinn was “if you can’t win the Heisman playing QB for ND, then you can’t be very good.” And, I stick by that assessment.
They are definitely 2 very different QBs. Brady, the 6’4″ 230lb pocket-passer who refuses to throw the ball downfield. Manziel, the 6’1″ 200lb mobile QB who keeps his eyes upfield and loves to throw it deep.
The part I do wonder is the locker room. Brady never seemed able to win the locker room over. Will Manziel’s schtick work in a NFL locker room? I guess if he finds enough success it will. We’ll see.
if Manziel turns out to be a great NFL quarterback
then, I’m not nearly as worried about any other position. if you solve QB, then you have solved your biggest problem. sure, teams like Atlanta can have it solved and still fall apart, but those seasons tend to be the exception and not the rule.
Continuing to refer to Johnny Manziel as “Johnny Football” is an insult to competent NFL viewers and my ears.
It’s kinda like when you get in line for the best roller coaster at Cedar Point for the millionth time….
Your first go around you will wait endlessly for that front car.
Your second time you strategically pick which line appears to move faster as long as it ensures the front three cars.
Third time you say “eh, well let’s give the back car a try it could be fun”
By the fourth time…. eff it, let’s get an elephant ear and call it a day.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFFPQ4GRxJA
Safe: you keep saying that word. I don’t think it means what you think it means.
can you win the locker room when you are the first round QB and you suck?
I do wonder about big guys like Quinn and Jason Campbell who rarely look downfield. Must be because coaches have convinced them that throwing picks is the quickest way to lose your starting spot. Most of Brady’s passes looked like they could have been thrown by Ken Dorsey.
I never said it as a comparison of the players. I said it as a comparison of my mindset as the draft approaches. Meaning, in 2007 I kept hearing about the Browns maybe taking Quinn at #3 and it made me so very angry because I didn’t want him there. I had no problem with him at #22, in full disclosure.
That’s the comparison. There is a large part of me that just wants absolutely no part of him at #4. Not because I think he’ll be Brady Quinn as a player; simply because I don’t want us to use our #4 pick on him.
That said, as I tried to elaborate, I’m not completely closed off to the idea.
Thank you for successfully ruining my day.
Player safety rankings (in play with 4th pick)
1) J. Matthews.
The Good; Consistent, injury free, great bloodlines. NFL ready. No red flags.
The Bad; Positional value of OL is dependent on a franchise QB.
2) S. Watkins.
The Good: Great hands, speed, elusiveness, effort.
The Bad: Has had minor injuries in the past.
3) G. Robinson.
The Good; Protypical size, athleticism. High upside player.
The Bad; Needs to develop to reach potential. Positional value is dependent on a franchise QB.
4) K. Mack.
The Good; Sure tackler, gives maximum effort, injury free. Sufficient athleticism to play any LB position in 3-4.
The Bad; Has seldom faced elite competition. May be a large jump to NFL
5) M. Evans.
The Good; Great hands, leaping ability. Very physical.
The Bad; Questionable speed. May not be able to consistently create separation.
6) J. Clowney.
The Good; Most raw talent. Freak of nature. Best position is 4-3 DE, but has athleticism to play 3-4 OLB. Can take over a game.
The Bad; Questionable motivation. His ideal position does not fit 3-4 defense.
7) JFB.
The Good; Competitor with great instincts. Good enough arm strength to make throws from the pocket. Dangerous on the run. Great huddle presence. Gives maximum effort. Plays the position which most impacts the game.
The Bad; Undersized for the position. Does not have elite arm strength. Competitive nature and propensity to run could lead to injury. Character concerns.
Browns wanted to draft Len Dawson but he was already taken so they took Brown.
http://mmqb.si.com/2014/05/06/nfl-mock-draft-peter-king-khalil-mack-houston-texans/?eref=sihp
Peter King:
I texted congratulations to a general manager with a top-10 pick Sunday, saying he deserved praise because no one around the league knew what he was doing at his pick.
“Ha!’’ this GM texted back. “Neither do we :)”
http://beyondthemarquee.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/homer_jump_the_shark1.gif
it is perhaps my biggest QB pet peeve. if you look like you should be throwing lasers downfield and yet you are barely able to get the ball 10yds. ugh.
ok, how about some Rick Neuheisel instead? (and yeah, there are ALOT more where these came from)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SnEX1Bl-Qo
I am reasonably confident that Haha Clinton-Dix is atop my player safety ranking 🙂
Also, atop the best athlete name for someone born in the 90s.
Moral of he story?
Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then.
actually it’s more like your nana purchased a triple-decker in allston in your name. but damn, you wanted the x-box.
all praise to the packers’ beat reporter bob mcginn and his annual draft preview. here’s the qb rundown.
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/rating-the-nfl-draft-prospects-quarterbacks-b99258613z1-257586291.html
Peter King admits very little info that might be reliable is leaking. But looking at his mock and reasoning really drives home the point that there will be excellent players left for the Browns at 26.
Good lord, I hope these scouts and this new GM are competent. This draft is deep enough and the Browns have such great slots that competence – not great, just competence – can lift this worm-eaten, leaky boat of a franchise. Steady at the wheel, Ray. Don’t overthink this and try to make sharp turns around imaginary icebergs. Let the game and any offers come to you.
even his mock shows that the guys who have a chance to truly be elite will be gone though. picks 21-24 take the last of them. we have collected the underpants, it is now time to profit.
http://cdn.gifbay.com/2013/04/don_draper_pukes-42662.gif