With the NFL Draft finally just a week away, we decided to take everyone’s temperature and see what they were thinking about the Browns draft possibilities. Check out the conversation below, and enjoy!
Maybe it’s PTSD from the Mangini draft, but please anything but a trade down.
Don’t snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Pick one of the 4 “can’t misses” at 4. There are plenty of holes in our roster–how would a can’t miss at OL, LB, DE or WR be bad?
I am against the trade down scenario. Ordinarily, I would be all for it, but not in a draft where the Browns already have 10 picks. Stick at 4, and hell, even contemplate moving up from 26 if you see someone you like.
“We’re one week away from the most important Browns draft in recent memory”
I’m pretty sure this has been said before every draft for at leat the last 5 years…ok back to read the rest of the discussion.
“We’re one week away from the most important Browns draft in recent memory.”
Dude. Your memory is awful. The only person justified in thinking that is Ray Farmer, because his butt is now planted on the eject seat with Jimmy’s itchy finger on the button and his candidness on everyone’s mind.
I can’t see them touching an offensive lineman in the first two rounds simply because Thomas is in his prime and will eventually get old, Schwartz is mediocre on the other side and they need a guard upgrade. The more I think about it the more I don’t see them moving tall, immobile Schwartz to guard; he doesn’t seem to fit the physical or skill profile of a guard in the zone blocking scheme.
Receiver is deep enough that there is similar value at the end of the first and into the second round. The more I think about Manziel the less I believe that’s the guy Farmer and Pettine will tether their new careers to. Especially Farmer – if Manziel bombs Farmer will need to explain his thought process at every subsequent job interview for the rest of his career. [Ok, I get the Manziel mancrushes but does Bortles remind anyone else of a rich man’s Joe Flacco?].
I see Khalil Mack as the consensus pick among the Browns brass, a snot-nose playmaker whose chaos can open up things for everyone else. And then their fav QB – Garappolo? – at 26 and a wideout in the second. An OL and RB in the third round where you can still get plenty of good players at those positions
agree. If you trade down from #4 when you already have so many picks it’s almost like you don’t trust your own evaluations and are scared to make a mistake. All those picks, the current ones plus the traded for ones, can’t make the team, so then another round of wild trading would commence. And I don’t trust a rookie GM to pull off a wild jitterbug at his first dance.
I pretty much agree with all of this, and love the idea of Mack, Garappolo, and best WR with the first three picks.
The thing about Manziel is that it’s kind of a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario. Would it be much better for Farmer to pass on JFF, take Garappolo, and then JFF turns into the next Steve Young and we are drafting another QB in 2 years? Explaining your thought process would be just as awkward, if not more. “You passed on JOHNNY FOOTBALL because you had your eye on that QB from Eastern Illinois?”
This is why it’s hard to be a GM. So many variables, so many questions, and the the only way to confirm anything is to let time pass and try to not screw up developing the talent that you end up with.
Agreed, and if the Browns end up with your proposed scenario I would be pumped. I guess I’ve just seen so many of these scenarios go wrong that everywhere I look I see Spergon Wynn being drafted instead of Tom Brady.
I trust (hope) that the Browns decided on their top guys long ago and have been concentrating on who they like and don’t like in the third and fourth rounds. Good drafting in those two rounds could turn a very good draft into a great draft.
As for the 4th pick, don’t outsmart yourselves. Keep it simple, keep the pick, and use it on the sure thing, not the allegedly best available QB.
This draft has two parts. First, whatever we do at QB has absolutely got to be right. We can’t pass on another franchise QB, and we can can’t draft one early who isn’t. Also, we must have a unified long term plan in place to get a QB ready for the NFL so that he has a chance to actually succeed.
The second part is doing what a team with lots of picks should – load up on actual NFL talent. If this means drafting a position we don’t need, so be it. The draft is full of uncertainty, chaos and mistakes/reaches and sometimes players just fall in your lap. If you have a chance to draft a potential future all-pro, just take him and never look back.
I understand the acrimony towards trading down with the first pick. But, I really want as many top50 selections as we can get this year. It appears to be an extremely loaded top of the draft and I would love to end up with more starters out of it. Of course, we have to ensure that we are getting enough value through any trade down scenario.
For instance, if we trade with Tenn for #10, #42, and ’15 1st round pick, then it would be possible to end up with a draft like the following while banking a selection for next year too:
#10 Justin Gilbert or Mike Evans (top WR/CB on many boards)
#26 Odell Beckham or Kyle Fuller (I assume Marquise Lee is gone)
#35 Kyle Van Noy or Jimmie Ward
#42 Joel Bitonio or Jordan Matthews
what franchise qbs have we passed over in the first round lately?
not being snarky, just can’t think of any who meet the criterion since roethlisberger and that was in 2004.
as far as a trading partner, the niners have to be shopping. what if they gave you their two seconds and three thirds (and their #30) to move up to #4? (the math works in the ‘value chart.’) that’d leave you probably wheeling/dealing to move higher up in the first but it’d net you a couple more second rounders which is a good place to be this year. .. something to think about. i actually think i’d turn it down.
Just looked up some history. Not all that many. It looks like this;
2005 Aaron Rodgers
2006 Eli Manning and Phillip rivers out of reach. Jay Cutler – although not really elite was drafted two pick before us
2007 We take Brady Quinn and give up 2008 1st
2008 Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco go in first round. We don’t have a 1st
2009 Stafford goes 1st. No chance to get him.
2010 No QB’s worth taking, although we really wanted Bradford
2011 Cam Newton goes 1st. Not elite but Colin K. could have been had with our late 1st rd pick after we traded down.
2012 Luck and Griffin out of reach. Can’t fault them for not knowing what Russel Wilson or NIck Foles would become, but Weeden in the first was inexcusable.
2013 Still early, but looks like a draft with no franchise QB.
2014 ???
Saw what Pettine said about Vince Young. “You don’t realize how big he is until you get next to him. You talk about all these 6-foot, 5-11 quarterbacks in the draft and then he comes walking out and you go, ‘Ooh, that’s what they’re supposed to look like.’”
The speculation computer says that that means no lil’ JFF…and that Blake Bortles is a done deal. 100% sure.
I like Mack and think he’s much better than any LB we currently have. After drafting Mingo, signing Kruger and converting Sheard to OLB last season, it would look like an admission that we got it wrong (which we very well might have).
so add our other picks and how many rookies make our roster – either of the third rounders, fourth, etc.? Don’t see this happening, not in a “win now” atmosphere.
et tu, Kanick, trusting silly season talk? I love Evans, but no one is moving quickly up the boards. The top teams narrowed down their first round selections long ago and they’re not sharing. This is agent source talk.
SPOILER ALERT!!! I’m going to ask Humboldt an important question about the ending of the movie. (If anyone else who saw it wants to chime in, that’s fine.)
Humbolt, here’s something I guess I missed. If Seattle wanted that QB so badly that they would give up three No. 1s and a punt returner to get him, then why did they bother trading the No. 1 overall in the first place? I can’t make sense of that.
* SIX-FIVE with THIRTYFIVE inch arms and 37″ vert.
* four inches taller than watkins, three inch longer arms, three inch higher vert… CATCH RADIUS.
* r-e-d z-o-n-e jump ball winner.
* all that and just 1/10 of a sec. slower (4.53).
the reason we’re even having JFF talk is because of mike evans.
i trust my eyes harv. the ‘silly season talk’ was and has been the enshrining of watkins as the better prospect in the first place.
if you were a team that wanted Teddy and he had a bad pro day, what good would it do you to say that his pro day doesn’t matter? It would make the most sense to jump on the bandwagon that pro days are important and that you are now not considering him anymore because his pro day stunk. then, you hope he slides to you.
I don’t disagree, but you totally missed my point, which is that Tony Pauline claims things are fluid. I heard him on the radio just today pushing his draft pub, and he’s just another guy drumming up interest in himself. Mike Evans might be the star receiver of this draft. As I said, here and in previous posts, I really like him. He’s 6’6″, can leap and leverage, has great hands. You don’t need to separate in coverage with that, you just need a QB who understands how to exploit your ridiculous advantage. But this concept isn’t just now occurring to GMs, and no inside opinions are getting from the GMs to the Paulines other than what the GMs want them to write. Pauline admitted this info is not from a FO, but people “close.” Who is “close”? Usually the agents who are speaking to the GMs every day. If Evans is at the top of a board, he’s been there a while. The draft is 2 weeks ;ate this year and these guys worked out weeks ago. Nothing has changed recently, except the boards of the professional guessers.
Good question. I think the film tried to partially justify it by suggesting that Seattle had salary cap problems, and that assuming the first pick would have put them in a difficult position. However, that seems to require a suspension of disbelief, or at very least, an assumption that the film is based on a pre-collective bargaining agreement slotting of draft salaries (i.e. Sam Bradford $78 million contract). So essentially, the film is asking us to see it the initial trade down as a financial move and a play to get picks, and then the second trade as a scheme for the GM to save face with the fan base. It seemed odd to me at the time but I was too enthralled and bleary-eyed to think critically about it until afterwards, haha
i guess my point is that the professional guessers set a narrative and when it gets challenged, much clucking ensues. eg, people blown away at the introduction of derek carr into the qb convo because he wasn’t one of the top three kiper/mcshay have been touting since jan. eg2, people refusing to acknowledge that bridgewater not passing at the combine, then passing poorly at his pro-day matters. eg3, kiper hangs a #1 overall rating on mack but geez, i think aaron donald is the better player. if donald is taken in front of mack there will be mass hysteria but it’s on the false premise that the professional guessers are wiser than you and me.
eg4, the most notable miss has been mike evans. 35 inch arm with 4.5 speed is as freakishly rare as clowney’s tools. i’m at a loss to explain why evans isnt talked about as much as watkins but suspect NFL GMs are happy to keep their ratings on evans to themselves and let kiper perform misdirection on their behalfs.
anyhoos, pauline’s tweet is the first name brand to put evans in the top five and that’s probably the least silly season ish thing i’ve seen in some time.
72 Comments
Maybe it’s PTSD from the Mangini draft, but please anything but a trade down.
Don’t snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Pick one of the 4 “can’t misses” at 4. There are plenty of holes in our roster–how would a can’t miss at OL, LB, DE or WR be bad?
I am against the trade down scenario. Ordinarily, I would be all for it, but not in a draft where the Browns already have 10 picks. Stick at 4, and hell, even contemplate moving up from 26 if you see someone you like.
“We’re one week away from the most important Browns draft in recent memory”
I’m pretty sure this has been said before every draft for at leat the last 5 years…ok back to read the rest of the discussion.
Edit: Craig – great minds…
I assume there is going to be an open draft thread next Thursday.
“We’re one week away from the most important Browns draft in recent memory.”
Dude. Your memory is awful. The only person justified in thinking that is Ray Farmer, because his butt is now planted on the eject seat with Jimmy’s itchy finger on the button and his candidness on everyone’s mind.
I can’t see them touching an offensive lineman in the first two rounds simply because Thomas is in his prime and will eventually get old, Schwartz is mediocre on the other side and they need a guard upgrade. The more I think about it the more I don’t see them moving tall, immobile Schwartz to guard; he doesn’t seem to fit the physical or skill profile of a guard in the zone blocking scheme.
Receiver is deep enough that there is similar value at the end of the first and into the second round. The more I think about Manziel the less I believe that’s the guy Farmer and Pettine will tether their new careers to. Especially Farmer – if Manziel bombs Farmer will need to explain his thought process at every subsequent job interview for the rest of his career. [Ok, I get the Manziel mancrushes but does Bortles remind anyone else of a rich man’s Joe Flacco?].
I see Khalil Mack as the consensus pick among the Browns brass, a snot-nose playmaker whose chaos can open up things for everyone else. And then their fav QB – Garappolo? – at 26 and a wideout in the second. An OL and RB in the third round where you can still get plenty of good players at those positions
agree. If you trade down from #4 when you already have so many picks it’s almost like you don’t trust your own evaluations and are scared to make a mistake. All those picks, the current ones plus the traded for ones, can’t make the team, so then another round of wild trading would commence. And I don’t trust a rookie GM to pull off a wild jitterbug at his first dance.
I pretty much agree with all of this, and love the idea of Mack, Garappolo, and best WR with the first three picks.
The thing about Manziel is that it’s kind of a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario. Would it be much better for Farmer to pass on JFF, take Garappolo, and then JFF turns into the next Steve Young and we are drafting another QB in 2 years? Explaining your thought process would be just as awkward, if not more. “You passed on JOHNNY FOOTBALL because you had your eye on that QB from Eastern Illinois?”
This is why it’s hard to be a GM. So many variables, so many questions, and the the only way to confirm anything is to let time pass and try to not screw up developing the talent that you end up with.
If the Browns drafted Steve Young, then the phrase “the next Steve Young” would probably not carry a positive connotation.
/Browns’d
true, but it’s easier to say other teams also passed on him than to be Joe Dumars and carry Darko Milicic around like a lingering fart.
Agreed, and if the Browns end up with your proposed scenario I would be pumped. I guess I’ve just seen so many of these scenarios go wrong that everywhere I look I see Spergon Wynn being drafted instead of Tom Brady.
I agree. Manziel, Watkins, Matthews, Clowney, or Mack. At number 4, you will have your pick out of at least two of these guys.
I trust (hope) that the Browns decided on their top guys long ago and have been concentrating on who they like and don’t like in the third and fourth rounds. Good drafting in those two rounds could turn a very good draft into a great draft.
As for the 4th pick, don’t outsmart yourselves. Keep it simple, keep the pick, and use it on the sure thing, not the allegedly best available QB.
This draft has two parts. First, whatever we do at QB has absolutely got to be right. We can’t pass on another franchise QB, and we can can’t draft one early who isn’t. Also, we must have a unified long term plan in place to get a QB ready for the NFL so that he has a chance to actually succeed.
The second part is doing what a team with lots of picks should – load up on actual NFL talent. If this means drafting a position we don’t need, so be it. The draft is full of uncertainty, chaos and mistakes/reaches and sometimes players just fall in your lap. If you have a chance to draft a potential future all-pro, just take him and never look back.
I understand the acrimony towards trading down with the first pick. But, I really want as many top50 selections as we can get this year. It appears to be an extremely loaded top of the draft and I would love to end up with more starters out of it. Of course, we have to ensure that we are getting enough value through any trade down scenario.
For instance, if we trade with Tenn for #10, #42, and ’15 1st round pick, then it would be possible to end up with a draft like the following while banking a selection for next year too:
#10 Justin Gilbert or Mike Evans (top WR/CB on many boards)
#26 Odell Beckham or Kyle Fuller (I assume Marquise Lee is gone)
#35 Kyle Van Noy or Jimmie Ward
#42 Joel Bitonio or Jordan Matthews
what franchise qbs have we passed over in the first round lately?
not being snarky, just can’t think of any who meet the criterion since roethlisberger and that was in 2004.
cmon son, evans wont be there at 10.
as far as a trading partner, the niners have to be shopping. what if they gave you their two seconds and three thirds (and their #30) to move up to #4? (the math works in the ‘value chart.’) that’d leave you probably wheeling/dealing to move higher up in the first but it’d net you a couple more second rounders which is a good place to be this year. .. something to think about. i actually think i’d turn it down.
Agree with the general premise, for completeness:
Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Colin Kaepernick (I guess) – none picked in 1st round, but we passed over them there.
1st round picks since Roeth we passed – Rodgers
And that is it unless someone has high hopes for Tannehill, EJ Manuel or Jake Locker.
I would turn it down. I want that ’15 1st rounder and we would end up with too many 3rd rounders that we might not be able to unload in that scenario.
Evans may go earlier, if he does, then someone else is dropping. Just giving what seemed like a plausible scenario there.
can you call it a ‘pass over’ when our pick was at #3 and rodgers went at #24? and anyway, that too was a long time ago, 2005.
Yeah, because he was thought to be in the conversation for #1 overall.
And, for the record, I think Rodgers would have failed with us. The Packers spent 2 offseasons re-working his entire delivery.
Still holding out hope that we sign Mallet/Locker next year…
Here’s hoping Ray Farmer wrote his first pick down on a folded up green piece of paper
Just looked up some history. Not all that many. It looks like this;
2005 Aaron Rodgers
2006 Eli Manning and Phillip rivers out of reach. Jay Cutler – although not really elite was drafted two pick before us
2007 We take Brady Quinn and give up 2008 1st
2008 Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco go in first round. We don’t have a 1st
2009 Stafford goes 1st. No chance to get him.
2010 No QB’s worth taking, although we really wanted Bradford
2011 Cam Newton goes 1st. Not elite but Colin K. could have been had with our late 1st rd pick after we traded down.
2012 Luck and Griffin out of reach. Can’t fault them for not knowing what Russel Wilson or NIck Foles would become, but Weeden in the first was inexcusable.
2013 Still early, but looks like a draft with no franchise QB.
2014 ???
Saw what Pettine said about Vince Young. “You don’t realize how big he is until you get next to him. You talk about all these 6-foot, 5-11 quarterbacks in the draft and then he comes walking out and you go, ‘Ooh, that’s what they’re supposed to look like.’”
The speculation computer says that that means no lil’ JFF…and that Blake Bortles is a done deal. 100% sure.
This was in reply to Jimkanicki but it went here for some reason.
I like Mack and think he’s much better than any LB we currently have. After drafting Mingo, signing Kruger and converting Sheard to OLB last season, it would look like an admission that we got it wrong (which we very well might have).
so add our other picks and how many rookies make our roster – either of the third rounders, fourth, etc.? Don’t see this happening, not in a “win now” atmosphere.
et tu, Kanick, trusting silly season talk? I love Evans, but no one is moving quickly up the boards. The top teams narrowed down their first round selections long ago and they’re not sharing. This is agent source talk.
SPOILER ALERT!!! I’m going to ask Humboldt an important question about the ending of the movie. (If anyone else who saw it wants to chime in, that’s fine.)
Humbolt, here’s something I guess I missed. If Seattle wanted that QB so badly that they would give up three No. 1s and a punt returner to get him, then why did they bother trading the No. 1 overall in the first place? I can’t make sense of that.
I just saw Teddy Bridgewater giving an interview to ESPN. The interview concerned his (alleged) fall down the draft boards.
If Teddy thinks he is going to lobby anyone with that interview, he’s wasting his time.
we’ll see soon.
* SIX-FIVE with THIRTYFIVE inch arms and 37″ vert.
* four inches taller than watkins, three inch longer arms, three inch higher vert… CATCH RADIUS.
* r-e-d z-o-n-e jump ball winner.
* all that and just 1/10 of a sec. slower (4.53).
the reason we’re even having JFF talk is because of mike evans.
i trust my eyes harv. the ‘silly season talk’ was and has been the enshrining of watkins as the better prospect in the first place.
great minds….think like mine.
Only because i want to look really smart when it happens, i’ll reiterate that i see the Browns taking Bortles at 4 if he’s there.
Thursday though the following Wednesday or whatever it is these days.
and he was able to study under Brett Favre. He could’ve done worse.
many many upticks. we are driving the car on this thought process. TRADE DOWN!!!
if you were a team that wanted Teddy and he had a bad pro day, what good would it do you to say that his pro day doesn’t matter? It would make the most sense to jump on the bandwagon that pro days are important and that you are now not considering him anymore because his pro day stunk. then, you hope he slides to you.
Evans is 6-5 231
Watkins 6-1 211
Evans has a higher vert, which means he is expected to be more explosive (vert being the best predictor of such things).
At his size, and with the extra 20 pounds, he translates to a pretty bad-ass WR, even when compared to Sammy.
I don’t disagree, but you totally missed my point, which is that Tony Pauline claims things are fluid. I heard him on the radio just today pushing his draft pub, and he’s just another guy drumming up interest in himself. Mike Evans might be the star receiver of this draft. As I said, here and in previous posts, I really like him. He’s 6’6″, can leap and leverage, has great hands. You don’t need to separate in coverage with that, you just need a QB who understands how to exploit your ridiculous advantage. But this concept isn’t just now occurring to GMs, and no inside opinions are getting from the GMs to the Paulines other than what the GMs want them to write. Pauline admitted this info is not from a FO, but people “close.” Who is “close”? Usually the agents who are speaking to the GMs every day. If Evans is at the top of a board, he’s been there a while. The draft is 2 weeks ;ate this year and these guys worked out weeks ago. Nothing has changed recently, except the boards of the professional guessers.
We seem to get all failed or soon to fail qbs, so just be patient.
Public perception matters for endorsements
I would randomly lie about some and pump up others.
Rgb, myself and others have had sammy higher all year. Either way, I think they both do well in the nfl.
Use later picks to move up or for better picks next year. No more than 8 drafted players if I can help it.
Good question. I think the film tried to partially justify it by suggesting that Seattle had salary cap problems, and that assuming the first pick would have put them in a difficult position. However, that seems to require a suspension of disbelief, or at very least, an assumption that the film is based on a pre-collective bargaining agreement slotting of draft salaries (i.e. Sam Bradford $78 million contract). So essentially, the film is asking us to see it the initial trade down as a financial move and a play to get picks, and then the second trade as a scheme for the GM to save face with the fan base. It seemed odd to me at the time but I was too enthralled and bleary-eyed to think critically about it until afterwards, haha
Young/Thigpen > Mallet/Locker
– or –
Young/Thigpen < Mallet/Locker
That's a Japanese koan if ever there was one.
i guess my point is that the professional guessers set a narrative and when it gets challenged, much clucking ensues. eg, people blown away at the introduction of derek carr into the qb convo because he wasn’t one of the top three kiper/mcshay have been touting since jan. eg2, people refusing to acknowledge that bridgewater not passing at the combine, then passing poorly at his pro-day matters. eg3, kiper hangs a #1 overall rating on mack but geez, i think aaron donald is the better player. if donald is taken in front of mack there will be mass hysteria but it’s on the false premise that the professional guessers are wiser than you and me.
eg4, the most notable miss has been mike evans. 35 inch arm with 4.5 speed is as freakishly rare as clowney’s tools. i’m at a loss to explain why evans isnt talked about as much as watkins but suspect NFL GMs are happy to keep their ratings on evans to themselves and let kiper perform misdirection on their behalfs.
anyhoos, pauline’s tweet is the first name brand to put evans in the top five and that’s probably the least silly season ish thing i’ve seen in some time.
we need more later picks for jonathan dowling and colt lyeria and brian schmiedebusch. cant believe you would eschew schmiedebusch.
Aha, you’re right. That was it. Good job keeping your wits about you through the emotional ride.
Van Noy was born to be a Brown.