Mike Miller leaning towards joining the Cavaliers, but Mavs now in play
July 15, 2014Brian Windhorst talks about LeBron coming home – WFNY Podcast – 2014-07-15
July 15, 2014And you thought that the Cleveland Cavaliers were done with lightning-rod debates for the summer? No, my friend, they are just getting started.
During the four days since LeBron James’ letter, Twitter has been on fire with all sorts of takes on the potential for a trade for Minnesota Timberwolves star Kevin Love. To get a sense of where we all stand, I asked my Waiting For Next Year colleagues for their brief responses to the current rumors. Stay tuned for more posts to come soon and share your thoughts in the comments.
Scott Sargent (@WFNYScott): This won’t make for great debate, but I somewhat feel that the Cavaliers—especially David Griffin—will be in a no-lose situation. The decision, reduced to its most simplest terms, comes down to winning more games sooner, or delaying potential dominance, but with the window open a bit longer.
The general managers and scouts who spoke with ESPN.com’s Jeff Goodman collectively represent my thoughts. Sure, there is a 7-5 lead for Andrew Wiggins in a this-or-that scenario, but it could easily be ascertained that 12 more interviews could tilt the favor back in the way of the big man. Both players offer the stuff hoop dreams are made of—the thoughts of Wiggins’ 44-inch vertical being put on display in transition makes me salivate; the drive-and-kick, spacing potential of an Olympian as a stretch four could make for hardwood theatre.
If the Wolves would prefer to get cute and lose Love for pennies due to hardball—or worse, to overpay Klay Thompson and take on the contract of one of the worst defensive big men in the league in David Lee—the Cavs would almost be better off sitting this one out. If they would rather go with younger, more dynamic players still on their rookie deals and a few draft picks to boot, then there’s a chance the Cavs can not only add a player like Love, but without having to deal a player who some of the scouts mentioned above as having the potential to be one of the top five players in the NBA—on a rookie wage scale. That, fans, is called leverage.
Could the Wine and Gold’s Big Three actually become a Big Four?
Joe Gilbert (@iggybrowns): I believe the Cavaliers should not include Andrew Wiggins into any trade offers for Kevin Love. Wiggins has the potential to be a star in the NBA because of freakish athleticism and his skills. I do not believe he is that far away from producing for the Cavs. I think right away he becomes a lethal wing defender who can give the team a lot of versatility on the floor. He has the makings of a dangerous offensive game with solid shooting mechanics and athleticism to get past defenders. I think he is just too good to give up in a trade.
I think the Cavs can wait for the trade deadline to make a trade for Kevin Love. As time goes on, the Minnesota Timberwolves lose bargaining power because they know they will lose Love in free agency. The Cavaliers are in a solid position because they can start the season without Love and still be very successful. Love will most be needed for the playoffs. I would be willing to give up anyone besides Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Andrew Wiggins. The three first round picks in 2015 also give the Cavs more trade assets to use along with the players. I think waiting till the trade deadline allows the Cavs to showcase players like Dion Waiters and Anthony Bennett to the T-Wolves.
My goal would be to team up LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Andrew Wiggins, and Kevin Love. They could become a lethal “Big Four”, who can create a dynasty in Cleveland. That team would be young, but filled with tons of talent. It is my dream team that could realistically happen for the Cavs.
Ben Cox (@WFNYBen): I don’t trade Andrew Wiggins for anybody.
While defensive shortcomings of both Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving are probably overstated, I think we can safely that defense isn’t their strong suite. A LeBron-Irving-Love Big 3 would be amazing, but you’d be top heavy and (like the Heat) would be bargain shopping for defensive role players. Now, they may be so good that it might not matter. But if you flip Wiggins for Love, you’ll be maxed out and two of those three max players will be one-way guys (with a less-than-great injury history, if we’re honest).
If Wiggins can crack his potential, the Cavs would be getting near All-Star production at a discounted rookie scale price. It allows them greater flexibility longterm and could possibly allow them to add a fourth star. Plus, the defensive potential of Wiggins and LeBron is incredible. It could be a Jordan-Pippen situation. Even this year, when Wiggins is at his worst, his combination of speed, size and explosiveness will make him a pain to go against. That combination next to LeBron would for create havoc for opposing teams. And once they get on the break… look out.
If LeBron is really around for the long haul, the Cavs should try to wait the Timberwolves out. The Cavs other trade assets like Dion Waiters and Anthony Bennett can’t helped but be improved by being around Blatt and LeBron every day. Everyone is trying to low-ball the Wolves and the Cavs should be no different. But I hold out. I put all these young athletes around LeBron and see what we got. If the Sixers or someone blows the Wolves away and the Cavs miss out on Love, I’m okay with it.
I think. Hahaha.
It’s so crazy that these are our options. This doesn’t even seem real.
Jacob Rosen (@WFNYJacob): I think Cavs fans are understandably optimistic about their favorite team’s assets. They tend to ignore the past and inflate the future. Dion Waiters has played mostly as a below-average guard. Anthony Bennett was abysmal. Tristan Thompson is an average-ish rotation big. Andrew Wiggins was mostly underwhelming based on his collegiate stats. All could and should be better playing alongside LeBron James, but that’s hope and projection, not facts.
Next, I think the media tends to underrate Kevin Love, superstar. The stats: 23.5 points and 13.7 rebounds in 36.6 minutes per game the last four seasons. He’s a 37.0% three-point shooter, which is even better when you take away his injury-riddled 2012-13 campaign. He surpassed the 20.0% assist percentage mark last year, the Holy Grail for elite passing big men. The Timberwolves, the best non-playoff team ever by scoring margin, were +4.4 net with him on the court and -6.1 net without him.
Love’s defense is a question mark, yes. His elite rebounding isn’t essential for the Cavs with Anderson Varejao et al. It’s a high price to pay and the Cavs would have even less financial flexibility going forward with Irving’s rookie max, LeBron’s year-to-year max and Love’s inevitable seven-year pro max. But I think Love is the best player possibly available and I want the Cavs to push for contention within a 4-5 year window.
LeBron turns 30 in December. As much as I would ideally like to build a Spurs-ian dynasty with multiple championships over a decade, I see the most likely route to at least one with LeBron as trading for another elite talent soon. This team is young and inexperienced. Wiggins is an unknown. When will he even come close to Love’s success, year 6 or 7? I want the known commodity, now.
Joe Mastrantoni (@WFNYJoe): I vote for keeping the nineteen year old athletic freak who comes cheaply for four years, wants to make the NBA All-Defensive team, and can explode to the rim like this:
But that’s just me…
Kirk Lammers (@WFNYKirk): It could be a lack of 100% trust in LeBron’s short-term contract, compounded with the “no way in hell” factor that comes with Love staying long-term if James isn’t here. There’s also the matter of Kyrie and Love’s injury pasts causing the exact thing that LeBron was trying to avoid, putting the burden solely on him and driving up his minutes count.
But, it’s still about Wiggins more than Love. The Cavs will never find this type of value again, and this isn’t the weak drafts of the past four years. Many think Andrew Wiggins can be a perennial All-Star. If you think that way, it’s very, very hard to justify giving him up, even for the 25-year-old Love.
Trying to picture the team in my head, I don’t want to lose the upside and youth of the supporting cast. If we trade Wiggins, I’m imploring we keep Dion and Bennett to surround the Lake Erie Trio. Dion and Tristan/Bennett get to become fourth or fifth options on an incredibly dangerous team. I have little doubt that the Kyrie-LBJ-Love combo with that cast would be at the top of the league and deep into the playoffs for however long they choose to stick together.
The Cavs have to be a little more patient if they can’t pull off the deal with Dion-Bennett-picks. If you do, unbridled athleticism and defensive ability from your starting wings awaits. If James is willing to take the long road with Cleveland, he could take this contention window all the way into retirement with Kyrie and Wiggins taking more of the minutes and usage as we progress through the years.
I’ll understand if the Cavs pull the trigger, and if they win a title, it will be worth it a thousand times over. But, I still feel like the Cavs are bidding against themselves. The Cavs have the ultimate best asset to get this deal done, but their secondary offer isn’t far off the current offers on the table. If Love plays hard ball, the T-Wolves lose a bit of leverage every day. I think the Cavaliers have other options as well that maybe we can’t currently see.
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AP Photo/Jim Mone
117 Comments
yes, we’d be cap-tied (like that term).
I believe the Celtics can just throw in Bass (on the last year of his deal) with those three to make a trade work.
very nicely done.
More teams are getting into the mix, and no one’s balking at the price for Love yet, so I’m not sure they can’t get better.
We’ll also be cap-tied if we don’t trade for Love.
Phoenix’s baseline offer would trump any GSW offer without Klay and any Cleveland offer without Wiggins.
it was Sullinger OR Olynyk, not both.
$7mil(Bass)+$1.4mil(Sullinger)+$2.7mil(Smart) = $11.1mil
Substitute Olynyk($2mil over $1.4mil) = $11.7
Love = $15.7mil
It’s very close with Kelly (maybe a loop-hole to use?), not enough with Sullinger. You may be correct if they can play some tricks with draft pick holds (not exactly sure how those work out).
Wouldn’t work that way. It’d likely be Delly or other min guys to make the math work exactly.
GS balked (didn’t include Klay)
Chicago balked (didn’t include Butler or whatever it was that Minny asked)
Cleveland balked (didn’t include Wiggins)
Boston balked (didn’t include whoever Minny requested)
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all remain in contact because that is what you do, but noone is meeting Minny’s asking price or getting close to a deal.
even better
only LeBron, Kyrie, and Wiggins guaranteed a contract after this next season.
If the Cavs trade for Love, they’d also acquire his Bird rights. That gives them the overwhelming favor in signing him beyond the soft cap number that you often hear reported in the media. The NBA has a tiered hard cap which the Cavs might come close to approaching, but probably not.
Teams above the soft cap can still utilize the full mid-level exception (about $5.5M) and the biannual exception (about $2M).
Oddly enough, teams slightly under the cap can only use cap space and the room exception (about $2.8M).
So in the end, teams above the soft cap and below the tax line are in a slightly better situation.
What forest am I losing? If you’re throwing out ideas, we have to understand how they’ll play out.
And again, no, Love can’t just say that he wants to play in Cleveland, snap his fingers, and it will be so. Minnesota still has to decide to take an offer for him.
And there’s many shades of gray on the scale of Love wanting to be here and wanting to be other places. Just because he’s not beating down our door and pulling a Carmelo-to-NY, doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be excited to play here. And just because this looks like his current best option to win doesn’t mean he can’t be excited to play on a contender elsewhere.
NICE!
yes, I agree. if they want to get into the fray.
If I was Billy Beane Mr. Rosen is the guy I’d want doing my contracts!
I consider balking to be ending any real discussion. All sides are playing hardball, but now there are more options for Minnesota.
In a perfect world KLove exerts pressure on Minnesota to trade him to Cleveland because he wants to play with LBJ. Love says the only team he’ll sign an extension with is Cleveland all but tying Minnesota’s hands. Of course during this time I make sure LBJ and Love talk. Minnesota gives in, trades Love to Cleveland where alongside LBJ at a press conference announces he’s signed an extension. Cavaliers get Love, keep Wiggns and the Cavaliers get to work. {end scene – I wake up and yes there is wood}
Here we go again, this is one of the reasons LBJ left.Everybody is expecting him to carry this team again.Pushing aside players with the powerful skills that could help this team win. Can we get the first Rings, first! Please! We need to win now. You people need to understand. LBJ is almost 30,and he has never had any major injury.If we keep running the poor man that this. Guess What!!! We cant be waiting on wiggans, so-called upside.Plus the fact that the Cavs don’t have a “Real” center.We need to strecth the floor,and AW can not do that like Love can. This team, right now, could not beat the Spurs. period!!! Trade Wiggins now
And the closer the trade deadline, the more Minnesota will move off their demands.
Hey people are basking in the glow of LBJ can you blame ’em? But you are right nothing is certain. However I do believe it;s been reported by several people that Love has said now that LBJ has returned to Cleveland he would be interested in playing for the Cavaliers and sign an extension. But maybe I dreamt that too.
Can’t overlook this possibility either or the fact that the Cavaliers have three first round picks next year.
I think it was obvious that I didn’t mean to criticize championships. This is not a question of being good or being terrible. It is a question of getting an expensive, tremendous player, or keeping a good player with tremendous potential for cheaper. And I’m saying that the cheaper player also comes along with a better narrative.
And you can add to this that Love will also cost us a couple lottery tickets, either in Bennett, 1st rounders, or both.
As a Taurus I say AMEN!
The Force is strong with this one!
Lebron will get 35% of the cap, which is why he took that opt-out. Irving will start around $15M, but maybe get more with the nba super-max stipulation. (Cap projected at $66.5M). Wiggins gets $4.8M. If the Cavs renounce everyone else they hold the right on, they will still have cap holds of $4.5M. That puts the Cavs at around 47.5M, maybe less, leaving them 19M under the cap, just a bit short of offering the max to Love.
So, if Irving doesn’t get the super-max (best way to avoid this Cavs fans is to not vote for him to start the all-star game!), the Cavs renounce everyone else, leaving them a barebones roster, and Love decides to take less than the max to come here, its possible. So you’re saying . . . there’s a chance.
I wasn’t talking about signing Love in FA. Just our situation next summer.
Fair enough, I admit to being too deadset on adding a superstar.
I’m figuring they might have to give a second year to Allen or Miller or whoever they add, and they won’t renounce everyone on their roster anyway.
This all reminds me of Houston and Asik last year. They waited and waited, and continued to pay him. And in the end they got….Trevor Ariza on a deal that pays him too much?
They got the room to add Bosh. Sometimes it backfires, but thats the kind of go big or go home risks that NBA teams should be making.
And it can likewise blow up for Minny if they try to overplay their hand. And unlike Houston, the Timberwolves HAVE to move Love this season. There is a definitive date.
Houston at least had the “leverage” of being able to take Asik off the table. Minnesota has no such luxury.
“team we are trading in has very little leverage”
They have enough leverage (the Boston and Chicago offers) to say no to anything that the Cavs offer that doesn’t include Wiggins. Which is enough from the Cavs perspective.
If the trade blowing up for Minnesota is a pretty good player and a decent lottery pick, I’m wondering what everything breaking for them would look like.
That’s not what I said.
hey, they got Alonzo Gee and Scotty Hopson!!!! though they had to give up Casspi to do it (ex-Cavs unite).
(they did end up with the ’15 1st rounder they wanted for Asik too, though noone has reported the protections yet)
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speaking of Asik and bringing back Andrew’s butterfly effect. if the Cavs successfully traded for Omer, then we wouldn’t have had the cap space for LeBron.
Many also “think” that Kevin love will stay healthy. I believe “think” is even more key in this scenario.
Would you have traded LeBron at the same career juncture if the Cavs were in a similar situation 10 or so years ago?
Wiggins ain’t gonna be LeBron, but he is as highly touted a player since LeBron came out, and you’re starting to see why. Don’t let his time at Kansas fool you. That was just him making sure he didn’t get hurt. That’s what happens when you’re ready for the promotion but just not allowed to take it. Why risk it all for KU?
But think about what LeBron is now. Would you have been willing to deal for that year’s Kevin Love in order to make a run, but have LeBron become LeBron in Minesota? Remember, there is no guarantee of winning a title with Love (if he stays healthy).
It’s not as if this is just a 1-year idea of a deal between 2 players. Wiggins has as high a ceiling as almost ANY player to every play in the nba. That’s not hyperbole – that’s a fact. He would have been the top pick a year – maybe even 2 years – prior to this one. He’s THAT good.
just let me see LeBron and Wiggins share the court once. That’s all I ask. Preseason, wine & gold scrimmage, some weird practice at St. V….
I’d probably cave on including Wiggins eventually. But just let me see them together once before we do.
I think the Miami one is protected, no?
Regardless, like everything else, you can look at it both ways:
Trade Wiggins because you have 2 or 3 first rounders next year
Or
Keep wiggins and build with those picks.
Either way, the Cavs gain nothing by trying to expedite the situation. They’ll have better leverage later, and even if Wiggins stinks this season (not Bennett stink but normal stink), he’ll still gets it done, and Cleveland doesn’t feel as bad.
“Wiggins ain’t gonna be LeBron”
Boy is this an understatement.
Would I have traded Lebron ten years ago? No, because his potential was so much higher than Wiggins is. Wiggins could have shot a bit better than 45% against college level athlete and still stayed healthy if it was simply a wanting to thing.
You’re treating Wiggins as pretty much equal to Lebron, which is nonsense. Yes, he has a very high ceiling. But what are the odds he becomes a top 10 player in the league? Not as high as 100%, which is what Love’s odds of that are – he’s already there.
You compared it to the Asik deal. What Houston got in the Asik deal – Ariza and the Pelicans 1st rounder – is not bad at all.
Miami’s is top 10 lottery protected I believe.
As for Wiggins I like the kid and I see potential but it’s potential most likely two years away. This doesn’t mean he won’t have a role or contribute plenty he should be a very nice compliment for Irving/LBJ.
Time will tell I’m just being thirsty, I want to carpe diem and keep the LBJ express rollin’!
Protected for the top 2 picks in the draft, and the last 10.
As long as I get to be Sean Penn….
I just don’t want to see the narrative changed on how/why LBJ returned to Cleveland. It had nothing to do with the Heat having problems not being able to make moves and James even said so. LBJ is only back because he wanted to be back, period!
As far as the players go nobody knows hopefully it all works out.
i feel like if you have Clayton Kershaw you don’t need to add Yu Darvish. Take Corey Kluber for half the price and 2/3 the production, and you come out ahead by 1/6th.
I’d like to be able to have Love next season, but (to be honest) I don’t even know who else will be available then. If you tell me there will be a top-20 player available who will cost 20% less, that may actually be the better scenario.
Corey Kluber doesn’t cost half the price when he’s on the FA market.
Any top 20 players are going to cost you the max.
Yes, offering Wiggins is what you do with no brain. But I hope we do have a brain and are able to realize the following;
1) Whoever trades for Love has him for one season only. An NBA player’s word is useless – see Boozer, Carlos. Also, if Love does really want to play with LBJ, he can simply demand to be traded here, which he can do whether he’s escaping Minni or anywhere else. In other words we don’t necessarily have to outbid another team right now since he can simply leave and come here after the season ends.
2) The going rate for a team that must trade an all star with one year on his contract has already been set by the trades of Howard, Carmelo and Harden. I won’t spell out all the details, but it is considerably less than one of the 5 best prospect in the past 15 years.
3) Also, we can’t just trade Wiggins for Love because the salaries won’t match, which means we’d have to throw in another player like Dion, Tristan or Bennet.
4) Love’s stats are fantastic, but they are likely inflated due to being the #1 option on a team with few scorers. On a team with LBJ and Kyrie, his stats would take a dip like it did with Bosh. At best he’d probably be a 20/10 guy.
5) Those stats would still be great if he was an above average defender, like Bosh, but he isn’t.
6) What this team lacks most, beside experience and some veteran reinforcements, is rim protection. With Love, we would still lack this and after a trade the list of things we lack would grow while the assets available to fill the gap shrinks.
7) Attaining rim protection is much more achievable, and should be possible without giving up an asset that we dearly covet.
8) LBJ is 29 years old and has a wide array of basketball skills that aren’t going to simply disappear in 4 years. He likely has 7-10 more very productive seasons remaining, and after that letter it appears he plans to spend all of them at home. Duncan just won his 5th title at the age of 38.
9) Which means this is not a race, and short cuts aren’t really necessary, unless they happen to make sense.
10) If we can get Love now without giving up Wiggins, then it becomes something that makes a whole lot of sense.
Now Mike Miller too.
why are you knocking on Waiters?? despite the fact that he’s had 2 coaches and some inferior teammates to stunt his natural progression, he still put up 20 points a game in the last 21 games of this past season, shooting 46% and 38% from 3PT and showed a ton of flash.
he certainly shows the potential to play a signifiant role with many more open looks coming to him with a guy like Lebron, as well as potential Love or even Wiggins.
sure he’s still a work in progress defensively, but adding a guy like Lebron should definitely help expedite his development into a key contributor to a championship team.
Last year, Dion Waiters shot 43%, not 46% and that makes him average. However, he shot an abysmal 68.5% from FT. He had a TS% of 50.8%, when the average SG shoots 53.5%. He’s not a great shooter.
However, in addition to that, he turns the ball over a LOT, and his defense is suspect. Add it all up, and Waiters last year posted -.016 Wins Produced per 48 minutes. Over the 2072 minutes he played, this equated to -0.7 WP for the season. He cost the Cavs a game just by being on the court.
He’s not a good player.
http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/players/1257-dion-waiters