Can Corey Kluber win the AL Cy Young?
September 16, 2014Game Illustrated: Mike Miller
September 16, 2014For just the second time since returning in 1999, the Cleveland Browns found a way to win their home opener. The fates finally seemed to turn in the favor of the team who so often finds every way to lose—especially at home. “The Factory of Sadness” would have wait another week to open its door because on Sunday the Browns made the plays they had to in order to knock off the New Orleans Saints. Both the team and the fans brought the energy from the opening kick off and all the way until Billy Cundiff’s 29-yard field goal split the uprights sending everyone inside First Energy Stadium into a euphoric frenzy while “Jump Around” blared through the brand new sound system.
The scene prompted FOX Sports Ohio’s Zac Jackson to coin the phrase “Factory of Awesomeness”. Awesome it was for Cleveland to watch their football team climb back up to 1-1 with the 26-24 victory, but let’s take a deeper look at the numbers beyond the boxscore.
Factory of Awesomeness.
— Zac Jackson (@AkronJackson) September 14, 2014
12.6% – The Browns predicted win probably after Austin Robinson scampered for a first down, putting the Saints offense at the Cleveland 36-yard line with five minutes to play.
1 – The number of deep passes completed by Brian Hoyer on the day. Hoyer was 1-for-7 on passes over 15 yards. Hoyer’s only completed deep ball of the day floated like a punt to Andrew Hawkins to set up the game-winning field goal. Drew Brees was 1-for-6 on deep balls.
45 – Yards gained on running plays over Joe Thomas. The perennial Pro Bowler paved the way for Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell better than any other lineman, giving the duo 6.4 yards-per-carry and a touchdown over left tackle.
30 – Penalty yards given up by the Browns. Coach Pettine’s team played a clean game, avoiding crippling mistakes and allowing for the plays themselves to dictate the outcome of the game.
81.3% – Brian Hoyer’s completion percentage on throws short and on the left side of the field. The Browns’ QB was most effective working in this area, going 13-for-16 for 98 yards.
9 – Jimmy Graham’s yards-per-target. The Browns did a good job bracketing Graham in the first half, but when the former University of Miami basketball player got one on one coverage he was impossible to stop.
3 – Combination of false starts and timeouts burned by New Orleans in the first quarter. Backed up in their own end zone, opposite the Dawg Pound, Brees and his offense struggled to communicate. One can’t help but think the rowdy, champing-at-the-bit Opening Day crowd played a factor.
4 – Dating back through the 2011 season, the number of times Drew Brees has had a passing total lower than the 237 yards the Brown’s defense held him to in Week 2.
4 – Tackles made by Joe Haden on running plays. While it’s usually a bad thing when your DB’s are racking up tackles, four of Haden’s 10 tackles came in run support, including the momentum-toting thump he put on Marc Ingram following the Saints’ first two three-and-outs.
4 – Where Terrance West sits in the pecking order that is the NFL’s leading rushers. Filling in for the injured Ben Tate, West is tied for 4th in the league with Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell with 168 yards.
4.8 – Terrance West’s yards-per-carry through the first two weeks. The rookie is just a shade under five yards a pop when his number is called, a full two yards more than Willis McGahee’s 2.7 yard average a season ago.
8 – Percent chance, per advanced analytics, of the Cleveland Browns winning heading into the fourth-down pass to Gary Barnidge with a little less than one minute remaining in the fourth quarter.
22 Comments
That deep ball stat is disconcerting.
I’ll be more concerned if Gordon comes back and that success rate fails to improve. We don’t exactly have an abundance if deep threats on this roster at present.
fair point
Yeah, I would much rather them not throw deep at this point. Not sure they have the horses to go up and high-point a down-field attempt.
West 35 carries 168yds 4.8YPC 1TD
Crowell 16 carries 86yds 5.4YPC 2TDs
Tate 6 carries 41yds 6.1YPC 0TD
Benjamin 1 carry 10yds 10.0YPC 0TD
Agnew 1 carry 2yds 2.0YPC 0TD
As a team, we are running for more than 5YPC. That is absolutely dominating.
They have the OL makes sense let the big dogs eat!
It’s not good, but what’s the league average on such balls? @scottsargent:disqus?
Tate is going to make nice trade bait when he heals…
Did anybody else see the presser? Absolutely love Coach Pettine.
“There’s a phrase for almost losing, it’s called winning”
This year, about 40 percent. Small sample size though.
In 2013, the median was 41.9 (with at least 25 percent attempt rate, thus nullifying halfback passes and such).
Wow, I’d have thought closer to 30%. OK, 1-6 is really bad (though also small sample size).
I think there’s two components at play that are both correctable:
1. Hoyer is still launching off his back leg A LOT. Even when he isn’t visibly on his back leg he’s not driving through his front leg. I think there’s still ACL ghosts he’s dealing with.
2. He still isn’t dialed into the speed of Benjamin and his receivers. Like it or not he has only started five games in his career and this kind of thing just gets better with experience playing together.
Not just launching off his back leg, but (especially in the 1st half) he was moving backward while throwing the deep ball. Even on shorter throws he isn’t always stepping into the throw. There was a gigantic mechnical difference evident between Brees and Hoyer in that game. No matter the rush or rolling/standing, Brees was stepping into the throw. Hoyer was not.
The good thing is that Hoyer throws the ball to the correct guy and it wasn’t as obvious last year (or often). So, I believe it is correctable (and possibly an ACL surgery byproduct).
Never tell me the odds!
I saw that moving backward as well and was a little freaked out. Hoyer definitely has moxie and that “it” thing people love to talk about but he is definitely playing with fire. A few of those throws getting picked as teams gather more tape is going to change the tune people are singing about Hoyer pretty quick if Kyle doesn’t get him to learn and correct.
Also “…today we got paid”.
Eat lightning and crap thunder!
I’m concerned about both mechanics and arm strength.I thought he fully stepped in to the Benjamin under throw that should have been a TD.
So if that 12.6% win probility is correct were the books wrong? They had N.O. as -400 to win when they were at the 30. The Browns would have been something like 3-1 if you had taken them to win the game at that point.
I’m holding out hope that this falls under #2 above.
High point? Really?
A QB can’t really overthrow his speed guy on an undisrupted post route can he?
Please be #2, Please be #2!