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September 30, 2014Behold! The WFNY Cavs Newsletter
September 30, 2014The Cleveland Cavaliers’ roster is full of shiny new acquisitions, but perhaps the most interesting player to watch this year will be Dion Waiters. No Cavalier has a greater gap between his potential ceiling and floor, and no Cavalier has more questions surrounding his ability to fit in with LeBron James and company.
Lest we forget, the Cavs 2013-14 campaign was just silly. Andrew Bynum successfully begging to get traded by chucking full-court shots. Anthony Bennett slogging his way to one of the very worst seasons ever by a number one pick. The ill-fated idea to re-marry Mike Brown. And of course, the players-only meeting that led to the public usage of the term “buddy ball” and Dion-centric trade rumors.
LeBron be praised, those days now feel far, far away. Everyone said the right things in the warm cocoon of media day, Dion chief among them. “I’m going to do whatever I have to do for this team,” he said. He’s been working out with Kevin Love. He’s been the consummate teammate while in the primordial ooze of the preseason.
Still, Dion’s gonna be Dion. One does not inspire a Swag Matrix by being vanilla. To wit: He wants to play some point guard. When he gets the ball, he’s “got to destroy (his) opponent.” When asked on Twitter if he would come off the bench, he replied “Nooooooooo” with nine o’s, and did so at 4:43 AM. There’s also this video, which features Dion stepping out in a white bowtie, a gold pinky ring, and a Bentley. And don’t forget the roller skating—backwards.
One gets the sense that being on a good team will free up Dion to be himself. We don’t yet know if that’s a completely good thing, but it will certainly be entertaining. Without further adieu, an illustrated look at Dion’s game:
In Rainbows
When it’s on, few players have as pretty a jumper as Dion. He really lofts it up there, making it all the picturesque when it falls through the bucket. His long two-point jumpers had the highest average arc in the league at 15.6 feet, and the loft on his threes was fifth highest at 16.5 feet (number 29 in this Zach Lowe piece). A high-arcing shot is not a guarantee of accuracy, and it actually can make it difficult for a shooter to control a shot’s distance. The likelihood of a lovely swish, however, is increased when the ball comes down like a parabola.
Dion shot 36.8% on threes last year, just above league-average. It’s not unreasonable to expect that number to climb, considering that LeBron and Love are replacing, say, Alonzo Gee and Tyler Zeller. Waiters will often be the fourth option on the floor, and teams are likely to put their best perimeter defenders on James and/or Irving. This is an ideal scenario for optimal opponent destroying.
Dion averaged 2.5 catch-and-shoot threes per game last year, another figure that is likely to rise. He shot a solid 41.6% on those, a hair better than former Cav Danny Green. In contrast, Waiters shot just 26% on pull-up threes. Assuming that drives and post-ups from Kyrie, Love, and LeBron will bend, compress, and otherwise manipulate defenses, Dion should enjoy a lot of wide open looks. Better yet, he shouldn’t have to launch as many tough jumpers late in the shot clock.
Dion has shown a tendency to fade on his jumper, a mechanical issue that can knock everything awry. He corrected some of that last season, and has been praised by David Blatt thus far; continued consistency will make him a more accurate deep threat. He also has a propensity to catch and drive rather than catch and shoot. Drives are good things that put defenses on their heels, but it is important to read the rotation and make quick decisions as to the best course of action. Hesitation can kill an otherwise effective possession, and it will be important for Dion to make smart decisions on when the ball finds him.
Fast and Furious
By no means should Dion mimic Mike Miller and become a perimeter-only player. Driving is an integral part of his game, and the one that best capitalizes on his strength and quickness. Dion took it to the hole often last year, averaging 7.4 drives per game, a top-20 mark (A drive is defined as “any touch that starts at least 20 feet from the hoop and is dribbled within 10 feet of the hoop and excludes fast breaks.”). He has an explosive first step and he is especially dangerous when a defender can’t close out under control. He has also shown the ability to handle the ball in the pick-and-roll game, which should create chaos for teams worrying about the Cavs’ stars off the ball.
Dion was not, however, an efficient player when getting to the basket. He shot only 40.7% on his forays to the rim, bottom 10 in the league among players who averaged at least five drives per game. He struggled inside in general, converting 49.7% of shots from within five feet, which contributed to the Cavs ranking dead last in the league at such shots, at 54.8%. Close shots should be easy shots, even if there are large men trying hard to discourage them.
Waiters also had a tough time in the near midrange. He shot 39.8% when between 5 and 14 feet from the hoop. This is a tricky area for a lot of players. Even Tony Parker, he of the crafty floaters and scoops around the paint, shot 43.6% from that zone. It’s a generally inefficient region, and one that defenses will gladly concede over a layup or a three. There are a couple ways that Dion could improve this part of his game. One is to develop some kind of runner/floater thing. The other choice is to use those drives as a means to move the ball to open teammates. This is a tough thing to do—imagine a quarterback throwing a pass after plowing into the defensive line—but an important area to improve if Dion wants to be considered a top-tier two guard.
Efficiency and stats aside, Dion Waiters is a bad man when he can finish at the goal. He simply delights in cocking the ball back and putting dudes on posters (Birdman. Hawes. Z-Bo. Andrew Nicholson.)
These are the plays that can knock the roof off of a building and give the whole arena a boost. I don’t know or care if stats back this up. Big dunks are awesome. This is why we watch.
Hot and Cold
Dion is absolutely the sort of player who can score 20-plus on any given night. He did that 24 times last season. He’s also the sort of player who can disappear and score less than 10. He did that 15 times last season. Now, some of those poor outings were due to being banged up or bad matchups or Mike Brown or whatever, but you’d like to see Dion be steadier night after night.
The good news is that Dion improved as the season went along. He scored at least 14 points in each of the final 17 games—18-plus in 13 of those—while shooting a respectable 45%. This is a bit misleading as Irving missed eight of those games, but it’s still heartening to see Dion play with less bipolarity.
The good news is that this Cavs team should be able to weather a bad game from Dion every now and then. Again, he’ll often be the fourth scoring option. The better news is that, on those occasions when he goes off for 20, 25, 30 points, the Cavs should be virtually unbeatable. There will be nights when he can get into the lane at will. There will be nights when he hits five threes in a half. There will be nights when he scores 12 in a quarter. He’ll be to the Cavs what Darren Sproles is to the Philadelphia Eagles: a guy opposing teams may overlook until he’s making them look stupid.
Wild Card
We can try to predict shooting percentages and efficiency ratings. We can use previous outcomes to divine future results. But it’s much tougher to forecast how a human will react to a new situation.
Has Dion truly bought in to this new Cavaliers era, or is he just hitting softball questions out of the park? Will he grumble if he winds up coming off the bench? Will he clash with David Blatt? What if he doesn’t get enough shots? Aren’t the other guys going to be in more commercials? Has his beef with Kyrie and Tristan been fully squashed?
Sadly, NBA.com doesn’t have any stats about these sorts of things, and armchair psychology is stupid and overdone in general, so I’m not going to bother trying to answer these questions.
Just keep an eye on this sort of thing is all.
La Fin.
The Cavs’ good fortune benefits everyone in the organization: Dan Gilbert makes more money; the veterans get a shot at a ring; the stars bear less individual burden. But Dion might be the one who makes out the best.
Imagine a world in which the LeBron doesn’t come back. The Love trade never happens. The Cavs might’ve thrown a max deal at Gordon Hayward. The team would be stuck in NBA purgatory, the best breeding ground for bad habits. It isn’t hard to imagine Dion peaking as a Monta Ellis- or even a Ben Gordon-type: a high-volume, low efficiency scorer on middling teams.
The rising tide of a good team lifts all players’ boats, and that is the great hope for Dion and the Cavs this year. The hope is that LeBron imbues the team with Kumbaya ideals of hard work and togetherness. The hope is that the veterans emphasize how fleeting an NBA career is, and how important it is to find one’s place in the league. The hope is that Dion sees the writing on the wall at Cleveland Clinic Courts and falls in line with the team concept.
He’ll always have his personality, his confidence, his innate Dion-ness. We would never wish to take that away, because that is what makes him such a fun player to watch and for whom to cheer. If he can find a way to weave patches of swag into the Cavaliers’ team tapestry, we’ll only have more reasons to cheer.
29 Comments
Dion got plenty of love at practice today. Seems that he’s enjoying Blatt’s offense. Will be interested to see how it all comes to fruition.
I was surprised he wasn’t finishing better last year, given how quick and strong he is. Maybe some of it was trying to force things on his drives. But there should be lots of space iwith these teammates for him to exploit with that quickness. Let’s not forget that he’s not only a good passer, he likes to pass. Now that someone other than Alonzo Gee is hanging by the three point line we might see his assists go crazy northward. If, as you say, he learns this offense and how to quickly make the right decision within it. I know this: he’s not afraid of big shots, and if he doesn’t get pouty I’m guessing Kyrie, LeBron and Love will reward him plenty .
Not trying to sound all “we never got calls, the ref sux!” but I always thought Dion got a raw deal at the rim. Maybe it was his youth, maybe it was his attitude, maybe it was all part of the conspiracy to keep Cleveland in the cellar until Lebron came home, but maybe just maybe some of that superstar treatment will rub off to the rest of the team and Dion will earn an extra free throw or 4 per game.
At times Dion appears to lean away from contact when he’s in the air at the rim. Maybe that has something to do with it? I haven’t looked into this all that much. It was just a thing I noticed last season.
Sixth man of the year?
I saw some of that, and believe it was partly because Dion would start whining to the ref before he even landed after the shot. I remember Paul Silas telling rookie LeBron to shut up, build some credibility with the refs. (And LeBron didn’t don his cross baby face until year 2, when he was getting all the calls). Dion refuses to do that.
To me, this is his ideal role. He can handle the ball well, and I think would do well as a top-2 scoring option for the 2nd team, not the 4th option with the starters.
He’d definitely lead the bench bunch I like him along with Thompson and Marion to lead that group. I start Miller at SG.
I feel I saw the same thing, like he was trying too hard to get off a clean shot at the rim rather than simply crashing Wade like into any body in the vicinity.
Another factor to consider is that no pair of guards had so many defenders standing in the lane waiting for them like Waiters and Irving. With the SS Tristan anchored no more than 8 feet from the rim a big man was guaranteed to be ready to rim protect and teams weren’t exactly picking their poison when deciding whether to defend the drive or run out on Gee, Clark, Jack, etc. etc.
If I’m wrong I’ll sadly admit it, but I am fully expecting Waiters to have an amazing season. I love his game and as the article notes if he doesn’t fall to deeply in love with his jumper he’s going to be a handful.
Dion seems to relish the idea of playing some PG this year…and Blatt’s offense (when feasible) promotes that type of ball movement. Granted, Blatt molds his offense based off the talent he has available…in this particular case…he has plenty of it.
Shouting “And 1” before you land won’t help your cause with the refs. In the few games I was able to catch last year, I noticed he’d do that. I can’t imagine how often it happened over the course of the season.
I don’t like Miller starting. In all honesty, why not start a guy like Dellavedova? He is a decent enough shooter and plays very pesky defense. Bring Dion off the bench with Miller, Marion, Jones and TT.
Miller starts by default I personally like Delavadova coming off the bench with Waiters as the off guard. I don’t like Waiters handling the ball I prefer him off the ball which allows him to move more and either drive or shoot.
I don’t like Waiters as PG I like him playing off the ball which allows him to be on the move continually with an option to shoot or drive.
He definitely got the rookie treatment at first, but I think the biggest reason more recently was that the entire defensive strategy against the Cavs last year (at least for most of it – Hawes helped a lot) was to clog the lane up and keep the guards out of the paint. Nobody else was a decent shooter and Kyrie and Dion could both be goaded into taking poor shots or forcing it to the basket when there was no space. (Bad decision making maybe, but you can’t blame them for not trusting Clark or Gee at the arc) When the defenders don’t have to lunge or reach for the guy going to the rim it’s much less likely that you draw the foul. Hand fouls are ignored all the time when a ballhandler is in a forest of defenders, but never when a defender reaches out as he goes by.
I also think Dion (and Tristan a little bit) needs to learn HOW to draw a foul. And by that I don’t mean whining when it isn’t called. I mean drawing the contact in a way that is obvious and visible to the refs. You do have to learn how to work the refs a little bit, just so you make sure they notice, but you also have to learn what contact gets called in what situations. For some guys that comes naturally, but Dion is still trying to muscle it home and taking most of the contact to his arms by outstretched hands that aren’t swatting. The shots don’t fall AND he doesn’t go to the line.
That said, I think having guys like Lebron and Miller and Jones around is going to do wonders for floor spacing this year, and Dion and Kyrie are both going to have lots of situations where they just beat one guy and it’s 2-on-1 in the paint, and if help comes there will be an open shooter. I think Dion is going to thrive doing that in a motion offense.
If he would consistently move when he’s playing off ball, I’d like him more in that roll. He had a tendancy to stand around and ball-watch unfortunately.
Boo hiss! I love Dion! Let him start!
To be fair last year was under Mike Brown so to call anything the Cavaliers ran an offense would be a favor. I’m expecting, no hoping, we see a lot of different things this season.
He’ll get lost with LBJ, Love and Irving it makes more sense for him to bring that offensive spark off the bench IMO. Besides it’s not like he won’t be on the court with those other guys I’m sure Blatt won’t mass substitute units. So he’ll have his chance.
Mike Brown
He struggled with that under Byron Scott too (and he wanted to implement a Princeton offense here…but scrapped it because the players struggled with it IIRC.)
Still…having savvy veterans like Miller, Jones and Lebron should help him in that regard (I hope.)
Pretty much all fo this. The only thing I disagree with is that he seems to be trying to avoid contact to attempt to put the ball up (as opposed to muscling through and absorbing/creating/intiating contact.) But because he’s not a controtionist…he’s not able to put the ball in the basket…and because he’s avoiding contact, the refs aren’t calling it.
Dion seems tough to me. The big 3 and other FA signings are more skill guys, I think we;ll need some of his moxie during the stretch run and playoffs.
I think he might be the most misunderstood athlete in town.
Surprised the stats were not given in Dion’s last 20 games after he got promoted to start. Your stats are going to increase significantly when you start so why not compare apples to apples since he is starting now. Last 20 games he averaged 19.5ppg he shot 45%fg%, 3P%40 that’s right look it up , calculate it; it’s 40% higher than Kyrie’s last year. And why wasn’t the 5 player -3 player line-up stats mentioned? His best 5 player line-up =+/- was 39.5 points. Go ahead check it out at basketball reference com. It is so damn annoying all the critics love to hammer this kid when in comparison of a second year player, he did pretty darn good. SO please next time when you get the urge to smear him again at least be fair and reveal ALL the stats not just the ones that are all bad like you want to make a jaded case he’s a bad player overall. And then there is this, the one that really matters on this team doesn’t really care what you think about Dion. He KNOWS he’s good and has a high ceiling.
Oh btw on that bit about twitter. IF you were a loyal follower you would know he was joking on the emphasis of the Nooooo. He was getting bombarded by opportutist journalist under the false pretense that they were fans by the question of starting. He also said repeatedly he would do ANYTHING that was good for the team which includes from the bench. He said in the entire summer off season (if you followed him daily) he was working very hard to improve his shot, get stronger and EARN (did you get that) his spot to start. What the hell is wrong with that attitude? My son plays football and heck yeah he had the goal to start. High goals make you better!
Kyrie got pouty too last year. WHo wouldn’t?
True. Did you notice however, he did get the calls more when they played in the West?
I like to see him start and take him out like Wade was early in 1st quarter. Mike Brown did this too and it worked pretty good. It keeps him motivated and always hungry for more.
He is but I still don’t understand Josh Gordon more.