Browns vs. Saints: Behind the Box Score
September 16, 2014Cavs NBA 2K15 Player Rankings Leaked
September 16, 2014The Cleveland Cavaliers’ roster has been completely overhauled this summer, with more potential moves on the horizon (where art thou, Ray Allen?). LeBron’s return and the Kevin Love trade are obviously the biggest stories, but the team has smartly filled out the roster with established veterans who have playoff experience, like Shawn Marion.
It seems like forever ago that the Cavs added Mike Miller to the fold. Miller is the yin to Marion’s yang, an offense-dominant player whose game is strong where Marion’s is weak—perimeter shooting—and weak where Marion’s is strong—just about everywhere else. But if the modern NBA has taught us anything, it’s that three-point shooting and floor spacing matters very, very much.1
The NBA has seen a vast jump in three-point tries over the past few years, as these pieces show. This has been driven by the league’s burgeoning interest in analytics, which generally say that layups and threes, especially corner threes, offer the best chance of scoring the most points. These aren’t difficult concepts: Close shots are easier, and three is worth more than two. The uninspired post-ups and isolation plays of the ‘90s have largely been superseded by side-to-side drive-and-kick action designed to generate shots at the rim or high-quality three pointers.
You need stars to compete for titles, sure, but quality shooters give those stars room to operate. The Miami Heat captured two titles with Miller, Ray Allen, and Shane Battier spreading the floor for LeBron and Dwyane Wade; the Spurs benefited from Danny Green, Patty Mills, and Marco Belinelli clearing space for Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. Again, this isn’t really a news flash: It’s harder to play defense when you have to worry about multiple guys who can make shots.
Thus, the latest edition of Game Illustrated with a look at Mike “Let it Fly” Miller.
Shooting, Shooting, Shooting
Let’s not beat around the bush here: Mike Miller is on the Cavs because he is a premier three-point shooter. It’s the reason he’s been in the league for 14 years. He can do some other stuff, but his job on a basketball court is to catch the ball and throw it into the hoop from at least 23-feet-9-inches away. Good news is that he does this really, really well.
A whopping 88% (390/443) of his field goal attempts last year were some sort of jump shot. He is a true catch-and-shoot specialist, with 97% of his threes being assisted. Among guys who took at least one catch-and-shoot three per game last season, Miller shot 46.1% which was good enough for sixth in the league.
He is most active above the break, and especially on the wings. Nearly 78% (181/233) of his three-point tries were above the break last year. As shot chart guru Kirk Goldsberry has shown, LeBron, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving also favor the wings, so there could be some concern about overcrowding. That said, Miller is such a pure shooter that it shouldn’t matter where he chucks it from. His presence on the perimeter should open up room inside for Love post-ups and drives from Kyrie and LeBron. When they get doubled, he’ll be there to make opposing defenses pay.
A lot of guys in the league are great shooters, but few are as specialized as Miller. A whopping 88% (390/443) of his field goal attempts last year were some sort of jump shot. He is a true catch-and-shoot specialist, with 97% of his threes being assisted. Among guys who took at least one catch-and-shoot three per game last season, Miller shot 46.1% which was good enough for sixth in the league. Names ahead of him: Korver, LeBron, Steph Curry, Chris Paul…and J.R. Smith.3
It’s tough to overstate the value of shooting, and it’s tough to overstate how good Miller is at it. His true shooting percentage (a metric that is adjusted to include threes and free throws) was 61.9% last year, good for tenth in the league. That places him within shouting distance of LeBron, and above offensive stars like James Harden and Steph Curry. His shot has a quick release, a high arc, and beautiful mechanics. He’ll be able to hit jumpers even when he can’t jump anymore.
Other Stuff
Miller is a big wing at 6-foot-8 and 218 pounds. He isn’t a particularly physical or athletic player, and he’s not a playmaker on the defensive end. This DraftExpress profile describes his defense thusly:
Miller is a non-descript defender at the wing. He’s often criticized for being soft, but he’s more average than anything else. Miller gives up an above average amount of points at the wing, but opponents don’t shoot extremely high percentages against him. Miller’s biggest weakness on defense is his lack of physicality. His foot speed is better than advertised, but he isn’t fast enough to simply play off his man and try and react to his initial move. Miller attempts to use his size and length to disrupt his opponent’s shots, giving space to drive and reacting to his moves.
Not inspiring, but not that bad, right? Opponents don’t shoot that well against him! His foot speed is better than advertised! He’s more average than anything else! However, the discerning reader will note that that report is from May 2008. It’s not unreasonable to suggest that his athleticism and overall defending have declined over the past six years. He obviously isn’t a stopper, and the hope is that he can at least make his opponent work when he’s on defense.
Miller has experience as a starter, having been named with the starting five-man unit 553 times in his career, but he has taken to a supporting role since 2010—a timeframe which also somewhat coincides with his playing alongside LeBron, but he has started in just 25 of his last 221 regular season games. He struggled to adjust to his reserve status in his early Miami tenure, but he shined for the Grizzlies off the bench last year. As he rides out his NBA twilight, he seems content playing less than 20 minutes per game, which is his ideal role on this Cavs team.
Like Shawn Marion, he’s a smart, experienced player. He won’t rack up many assists, but he can make the right pass when the ball swings his way. And while this veers into intangibles and pseudoscience, he has a ring and experience playing with LeBron. That will command some degree of respect in the locker room.
Injury History
The thing that could put the kibosh on all this Miller excitement is that he has gotten hurt quite a bit in the past. He played all 82 games in Memphis last year, but that’s the only time he’s done so since his rookie season. In fact, Miller played in fewer than 60 games in the four seasons before last year’s campaign. He hasn’t suffered a critical season-ending injury, but the maladies have been distributed all over his body, including his shoulder, back, and wrist. After the 2012 Finals, LeBron said that his then-teammate needed a “body-ectomy” (not to be confused with a backiatomy).
The hope is that a bench role will help preserve his body, and that last year’s healthy run was not an anomaly. If he’s banged up, he can sit for a game or two. The Cavs could certainly survive without Miller for stretches, especially if they sign Ray Allen, but, as we iterated earlier, it’s good company policy to have all the healthy shooters you can.
La Fin.
Just launching threes isn’t a guarantee of victory. The champion Spurs were a middling 15th in the league last year in three-point attempts, with 21.4 per game. The Knicks, they of the sparkling 37-45 record, were fifth, with 24.9. Consider, however, that the Spurs led the league in three-point percentage, and that their 39.7% clip was a full percentage point above the nearest challenger. Then remember that Miller shot nearly 46% from three last year.
LeBron, Love and Kyrie are all accomplished outside shooters in their own right, but it’d be a stretch to call shooting the strength of their games. Having a catch-and-shoot expert like Mike Miller should provide them the extra space to do what they do best. Miller will keep at least one defender busy when he’s on the court. I’ll take LeBron, Love, Kyrie, and you against the four other guys.
The Cavs’ best three-point shooters by percentage last year were Spencer Hawes, Carrick Felix, and CJ Miles. Think Miller can do better than that?
- It’s also taught us that being friends with LeBron James is pretty cool too. [↩]
- All stats per NBA.com [↩]
- He doesn’t mess around with drives or post-ups very often. He’s smart enough and good enough to exploit a mismatch, but there won’t be more than a handful of possessions all year that turn into a Miller isolation. He can also get himself open by running off screens, and it wouldn’t be surprising for the Cavs to occasionally use that sort of action with bench units. [↩]
6 Comments
$hamrock enjoys these the “Operation” graphic was a nice choice.
Man, the Cavs offense is going to be unbelievable this year.
The more I study them, the more I believe that’ll be true. I’ll be shocked if they’re not making other teams pee themselves.
This was great, Will… loving this series already. I’m hopeful that the Cavs can keep Miller’s minutes down during the regular season so he has a better chance at avoiding injury and helping them in the playoffs. He’s gonna win a few games all by himself… he’s that good of a shooter.
Thanks a lot. More on the way, there oughta be one for every player when it’s all said and done. I agree w/ you, he can have those 20-points-on-10-shots games that should make the Cavs realllly hard to beat
I keep thinking of the Cavs banging out 60 wins with Mo, Parker, and Gibson as the floor spacers, Hickspn and Moon as the athletic energy guys and Jamison the “stretch” 4
Even accounting for growing pains this team is going to be really good. For the first time we’ll have an offense that can step on the fas even when Lebron sits. Blatt is going to earn his stripes coming up with a defensive scheme that fits these guys.
Great piece Will, really enjoyed what you’ve put out so far