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September 17, 2014It would be great if the Cleveland Browns could be a dominating force that never trails in any game they play, but that’s just not the way the NFL works. Football in the NFL is a game of inches, seconds, leverage, pounds and temperature. Oftentimes, whichever team finishes a game or season hottest will win it all. Over the course of two straight games, the Browns have shown an ability to get hot; they’ve shown an ability to come back in the face of adversity.
Consider the game-winning drive they executed against New Orleans at home this past Sunday.
Football in the NFL is a game of inches, seconds, leverage, pounds and temperature.
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What were the chances that the Browns were going to move the ball into scoring position from their own four-yard line with under three minutes to go? Advanced stats say about a 34% before the drive started. But advanced stats don’t take playing style into account. The Browns are a team built on defense and running the football, yet after two running plays before the two-minute warning, they were left only with the option to throw. Advanced stats based on wide swaths of data are useful, but knowing the Browns had to rely on the pass, it seemed unlikely the Browns were on that average. And despite having a ragtag bunch of receivers and Brian Hoyer – whatever he is or isn’t this week – at quarterback, the Browns defied the odds and won the game.
All it took was an impossible series of completions. The tight windows Brian Hoyer was working with on passes to Miles Austin were terrifying to fans at home who were forced to watch replays. It was like a horror movie because even though you know the hero makes it out at the end, it still makes your heart race. Let’s be honest here, though: Nobody in their right mind would have bet on the Hoyer-to-Barnidge connection that conquered 4th-and-6 at the Browns’ 38. At that point in the drive 34% chance of success would have been a dream.
Nobody I know in Cleveland would have bet on the refs who not only properly reviewed Miles Austin’s 13-yard catch along the sidelines, but also restored seven seconds that had improperly run off the clock. I still don’t want to talk about the pass play to Andrew Hawkins on broken coverage where Hawkins got turned around and the pass was probably in the wrong spot. See? Now I’m talking about it.
As the Browns’ sideline was celebrating the field goal and the Browns’ two-point lead, I was feeling a little too Browns-y yet again. Mike Pettine was holding up three fingers to remind everyone there were three seconds left to go and there I was staving off not-so-fond memories of Dwayne Rudd. The percentages I saw were 97% which is probably true, but I still saved my sideline-like jubilation for the final moment when the Saints finished running all over the field and were officially finished.
The Browns have been on the downside in a disproportionate number of games since 1999, so nobody blames us. But this is the NFL. I know that seems like a really lazy statement, but I have to remind myself sometimes what “normal” actually looks like. All around the league, every single week, wins and losses are decided by one or two plays. The Browns of the last 15 years have taught us to be scared because things just never seem to work out for the better. The 2014 version of the Browns was seemingly teaching us the same thing Week 1 in Pittsburgh. But maybe this is a new lesson plan.
Maybe this is finally proof of parity in the NFL and the Browns can win about as many games as they lose. Think about what that really means. It’s not even about “winning” games because it seems like the Browns actively lose a few games every year, whether by helmet toss or coaching decision blunder. Forget winning. Just cut the number of losses in half and Browns fans will mostly be good. In the end, for this season with yet another new coach and while we figure out who Brian Hoyer is, I think that’s all Browns fans are really pining for.
I couldn’t have bet on the Browns to do it heading into last Sunday, and I might not even bet on it if they were to line up and play it again this Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, but they can change that. Momentum and belief are powerful factors in the NFL. Then all of a sudden all those inches, seconds, and degrees seem to be in your favor.
There’s one thing that I actually believe after seeing the Browns come up short in their comeback attempt in Pittsburgh and their willingness to trade punches for four second-half lead changes with New Orleans: These guys believe they’re capable of doing it. We don’t know tons about this Browns team or coach Mike Pettine, but two games is a trend and maybe, even momentum.
Depending on where you look this week, the Browns are even or 1.5-point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens. I’m not sure if I’m there just yet, where I’d feel comfortable betting on the Browns to win a game as an underdog, but I am pretty confident Karlos Dansby, Donte Whitner, Joe Haden, Terrance West, Brian Hoyer and Mike Pettine would.
9 Comments
“Momentum and belief are powerful factors in the NFL. Then all of a
sudden all those inches, seconds, and degrees seem to be in your favor.”
Yes. As Pettine said: “Last week Pittsburgh made one more play a the end than we did. This week we made one more play than they did.” Seems like every season the Browns would win once or twice and players like Cribbs would talk about confidence and culture change, and then they’d lose 4 in a row. Playing the whole game out and believing you can make the last play is huge. No one drafted by this org has been able to develop that mindset. These days the media goes to effusive Joe Haden after a win – but he choked at the end of last season’s Jax game when he got badly beaten at the end. I’ll be watching this game with interest to see if they come out raging again. In past years they’ve followed up their few big wins with a weird letdown, like they thought they were entitled to a week off. Changing the culture is hard, and really starts with the head coach. We’ll see soon what we have here.
If they win this game, then they can have a week off.
I don’t believe in momentum carrying from one week to the next. I do, however, believe in good football.
Browns 24
Perriwinkle Clad Team 10
I agree on first part. Disagree on second. It should be another close game quite possibly a field goal decides it IMO.
i keep coming back to that overused term ‘playmaker.’ as in, we need playmakers on defense or we have to draft player x (kendall wright? tavon austin) because there are no playmakers on offense. but in fact it’s never been about getting _one_ playmaker. you need a team of playmakers. i look at the number of different individuals stepping up and making plays at the end (dansby, barnidge, austin, hawkins and of course hoyer and cundiff) and i see a big difference with year’s team.
i also see a coach who was as big as the moment. from the post game comments it sounds like coach pett knew just what he wanted to do if austin were ruled inbounds and/or we were granted the extra seconds,, ie, he was thinking ahead and had a plan.
playmakers, good coach, solid d-front, and great o-line. this really could be real.
I’m reserving judgement on Pettine for a full season, but so far I like that:
1) except for the first half in Pittsburgh, he does not seem overmatched by any part of the job. Seems to wear the position comfortably, and we couldn’t say that about Shurmur, Mangini, Palmer, or Romeo.
2) He seems capable of in-game adjustments. Mangini would brainstorm nice opening schemes but would stay rigid and be helpless when the other team adjusted. Shurmur and the others – forget it. Re Chud, we’ll never know.
I may be setting the bar low but it’s the Browns coaching bar, not mine.
Goodell says if there’s video of the win, he’ll give then two weeks off.
having individual playmakers who can score anytime they catch (or throw) the ball is certainly helpful. until that player gets hurt, of course.
however, if we continue as we started, then it will be nearly unprecedented for what we are achieving. if you look at the current ESPN fantasy rankings, there is not a single Brown player startable in a standard 12 man team of QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, TE, K, DEF despite having the 5th most points in the NFL as a team.
Hoyer #26 QB
West #32 RB
Hawkins #45 WR
Cameron #13 TE
Cundiff –unranked–
Browns-D #16
Personally, I think it shows the value in our OL not being properly appreciated, but it also does show that what we have seen the past 6 quarters is more about team and less about any individual.
I tend to agree on the “playmaker” talk. I mean, don’t get me wrong, a Calvin Johnson will make more big plays than an Andrew Hawkins, so ultimately the stars will shine more often than not. But it is about any given guy stepping up to make plays.
You don’t need to be a star…just show up big at the right time…i.e. the Dansby sack vs NO, keeping them out of FG range and letting us drive to kick a game winner.