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September 2, 2014The Cleveland Indians are back
September 2, 2014I hate trying to predict what the Browns will do in a given season. Long gone are the days where I go through the schedule and assign W’s and L’s to each week’s contest. It’s much simpler for me to look at the Browns in a couple of different ways. First, unless they are tearing the team down completely, my standards for an NFL team in a given NFL season is that they ought to be able to win eight games. Luck and injuries and coaching will tell the rest of the tale. Also, simply looking at the roster is instructive. Is it better or worse than last season? I have come to the conclusion that the Browns’ roster coming into this season is undeniably better than it was a year ago.
Granted, just having a roster improvement doesn’t mean much. Across 16 games in one of the world’s most violent sports, guys get hurt. I know the NFL is a no-excuses type of league and “next man up” is the mantra in every locker room, but I’m not a part of the locker room. Some years for some teams, injuries are just too much to overcome. Also, and especially with these Browns this year, the new coaching staff for the second time in two years is totally unknown. It’s still quite possible that the Browns coaching staff of Mike Pettine, Jim O’Neill and Kyle Shanahan is worse than Rob Chudzinski, Ray Horton and Norv Turner. Be that as it may, I’m confident the roster is improved.
Let’s start with the most obvious improvement with running backs. This week the Browns cut Chris Ogbonnaya. I didn’t get any enjoyment out of that, as Ogbonnaya was a good guy who worked hard and was reasonably talented enough to be a journeyman in the NFL. Problem was, the Browns had to use him like a fullback, a featured running back and a third down back over the course of the last few years. Don’t blame Ogbonnaya. Blame those who put the Browns in a position to rely on him so heavily. Which means, don’t blame Ray Farmer who just cut him loose.
This year the Browns signed a legit runner in Ben Tate in free agency. (Ben Tate’s contract details) The Browns then selected Terrance West in the third round of the NFL draft. (94 overall) Add in the fact that the Browns have a real, live fullback — Ray Agnew — not named Ogbonnaya, and it’s easy to see that the Browns are legitimately and almost with out question improved as a running unit.
That brings us to the offensive line. Yes, there are still question marks about Mitchell Schwartz, but there aren’t a lot about John Greco. He moves over to the right to help Schwartz. The Browns had the fifth best offensive line a season ago according to Pro Football Focus, and they drafted Joel Bitonio after bringing back Alex Mack. If they can gain chemistry and if Mitchell Schwartz can improve or even just stay the same, this is another place the Browns likely got better.
Wide receiver is still a major pain point for the Browns, and I don’t expect this to make you feel that much better, but remember what we found out over the course of last year. First of all, Josh Gordon missed the first two games. Secondly, despite all his hard work, Greg Little couldn’t become reliable. He was also cut by the Raiders this weekend, by the way. Davone Bess was a great move by the Browns that blew up in their face. Nobody saw that coming, but man, was that just a mess. Travis Benjamin even tore his ACL last year.
While the Browns have question marks with Miles Austin, Andrew Hawkins, Travis Benjamin and Taylor Gabriel, it’s hard to think they’re worse off. Granted, last year’s receiving corps is hindsight and I might have just doomed this year’s crew to jinx-ville, but last year was about as bad as I can remember for receiving other than Josh Gordon.
Quarterback? Oh man, I have no idea, except to say that Brandon Weeden is untrustable. Brian Hoyer had an awful pre-season and Johnny Manziel doesn’t appear ready yet. The Browns don’t have a “Jason Campbell” this year, which is good and bad, I guess. Unless you want to go back in time and again bemoan the lack of aggressive pursuit of a guy like Alex Smith (sometimes I like to) we should just go ahead and call the QB position “flat” year over year, if not slightly better because the Browns are betting on a guy who actually won two games at the helm in 2013.
The last piece that I will focus on is defensive back. The Browns used their top pick in the draft on Justin Gilbert. They return Joe Haden and Buster Skrine. They lose T.J. Ward and gain Donte Whitner. At safety they return Tashaun Gipson and others like Bademosi, Jordan Poyer as well as adding Jim Leonhard, Aaron Berry, and Pierre Desir. The key here is returning Haden, Skrine, and drafting Justin Gilbert.
Again, I don’t know what the Browns will do with this decidedly better roster. I didn’t even mention the D’Qwell Jackson departure for Karlos Dansby because I’ve talked about it so much already. My point is just that all you can ask for is to have the roster improve every year. Past that, you start to expect those improvements to translate into the record. If I had to guess, the Browns will be as good as their running game this year. Between the offensive line and the personnel changes in that unit, it’s the most glaring difference from the beginning of 2013. Obviously we’ll see if it does, very soon, but overall this year’s Browns team is better equipped.
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Photo: Scott Sargent/WFNY
73 Comments
Well, I figured I would go ahead and gloat about how easily Connor Shaw made it onto the practice squad. I’ll then eat crow for predicting that Rex Grossman was a lock to make the roster.
This is going to be a really interesting season. The Browns are looking like a team that will run the ball a ton and play tough defense. That was a recipe for success back in the late 80s and early 90s, but can it work for teams now? You could argue that this is what really won Superbowls for the Steelers, Giants, and Seahawks recently, but either Hoyer or Manziel will at least have to show that they can pass the ball when they need to.
I’m notoriously optimistic at the beginning of the season, but I do think Hoyer can be successful completing passes on 3rd and manageable downs, which would make the offense a lot more dangerous than it ever was with Weeden, McCoy, or Campbell. I think the Browns get to 8 wins this season.
We said that Mangini improved the roster through some subtraction and addition of disciplined veterans who knew how to play, how to win. We said that Heckert had to completely rebuild the fetid old roster mess Mangini left. That Banner was bettering the roster by re-prioritizing how picks are used, not whiffing in high rounds, building assets.
Today we know nothing about this roster. RB is improved with a decent but fragile Tate? Whoopee, it had been intentionally denuded. We finally have a FB? Yay, except Norv’s offense didn’t use one and we can’t say Shanahan’s system is better than what Norv does. And on and on.
We say the roster is better every year, recycling the reasons from a few years earlier. You know how we’ll know the roster is better? When productive players are cut in August, snatched by other teams and are still productive. This is outcome determinative. Until August cuts raise a howl, until the players play well enough for the team to win, the default status of the roster is the same. It kinda sucks.
“I’m notoriously optimistic at the beginning of the season…”
The NFL may have a lot of flaws but the reality contained in that quote for every fan of every team is what makes this the greatest sport, bar none.
The Browns need to draft 7 WRs next year. How hard is it to have 1 average WR on the roster? Apparently, it is very very hard.
I’m going to say I was more correct being that Connor Shaw is our 3rd QB (even though it’s without roster protection)
🙂
sadly, I concur. Any reason to think the Browns will do better than 4 or 5 wins they get every year is blind optimism (Pat style). I’de be shocked if they actually were competitive this season.
Oh yeah? Well then I’M going to say that there is still plenty of time for the Browns to add Sexy Rexy back to the 53-man 😉
I’m not sure why you think the roster is improved. You should choose whether you are looking ahead or using hindsight, and stick to that. You can’t say, “last year we had no running back and didn’t know Josh Gordon would break out” because that’s two different perspectives.
Also, it may be a wash across most positions but some are more important than others. We went from 800 yard running backs to 1200 yard running backs. Great. We also went from 1600 yard receiver to 300 yard receivers. Hoyer appears to have regressed. Whitner was slightly better than Ward but he did it on a better defense. It’s nice they drafter a corner, but that’s not enough. Last year they drafted a corner and they cut him this year.
I hate to be this pessimistic. My football following philosophy (FFF) keeps changing and when I remember the flashes we saw from Delhomme and Weeden in the preseason, and that we have often been good in preseason and awful in the regular season, it makes me lose hope for this team that showed almost nothing in the preseason.
Seattle Seahawks
2013 RECEIVING
PLAYER REC YDS
Golden Tate 64 898
Doug Baldwin 50 778
Marshawn Lynch 36 316
Zach Miller 33 387
Jermaine Kearse 22 346
Luke Willson 20 272
Sidney Rice 15 231
Derrick Coleman 8 62
Robert Turbin 8 60
Ricardo Lockette 5 82
Kellen Davis 3 32
Michael Robinson 2 27
Percy Harvin 1 17
I would take Golden Tate over any WR currently on the Brown’s roster. I’d probably say the same for Harvin, despite the year he had.
Also, you can do those things when you have the best defense and one of the best RB’s in the league. The Browns have neither of those things. Oh, also, competent QB play is nice to have.
I know the Seattle comparison is thrown out a lot with the Browns, but let’s not pretend this team is anywhere near their level.
“Also, you can do those things when you have the best Defense and one of the best RB’s in the league. The Browns have neither of those things.”
Agreed but you can’t get there if you don’t take steps in that direction and every step can’t be taken in one off season.
Fair enough, which is why they need to draft every WR available next year 🙂
Saying the roster is improved is more of a way for me to point at the coaching staff and say, “you’re move.” I gave the coaching staff something of a pass a year ago when they traded guys away and didn’t bring in replacements at running back.
Haslam and Banner obviously didn’t give them any kind of pass.
We’ll see how it plays out, but I think this coaching staff had better produce with these players.
I would point to Delhomme and Weeden looking so good in the preseason towards proof that results in the preseason mean nothing, not that you should feel like this team will be worse based on the lack of those results this year. I think you can glean some things from watching the players, but not necessarily from how many yards, completions, receptions, TDs, etc that a player has.
I hope future HOF, all pro draft picks at every position are all the Browns ever choose from this point forward and WR’s among those choices would be great. However, before we start putting together our 2015 draft boards we should at least wait and see how these 2014 products produce on the field in games that count.
I don’t have any numbers to back this up but it seems like playing well in the PS is not indicative of how good a team will be in the regular season but playing badly in PS (not wins/losses but execution) is rarely followed by a team performing well in the regular season. Hope I’m wrong and/or game 4 was more telling than games 1-3.
I hear you, and am fighting feeling the same way because the Browns as an org will get no further passes from me. In a league built for parity the team can’t manage to sniff 8-8.
Fully agree Banner screwed Turner. But not so Ray Horton, who presumably had input into the significant acquisitions for the defense last year. And had the defense not repeatedly collapsed late in games (Haden getting beat on a predictable double move against lowly Jax, anyone?) they would have won 6-7 games and, I believe Chud would still be here. Just can’t drink the koolaid no more, Craig. Something’s changed. No longer have a sweet tooth just by looking at Berea.
It does show that you can’t use preseason wins to predict regular season wins. It’s likely that you also can’t use preseason losses to predict regular season losses. I wish I would know what can be used to predict regular season wins but I’ve never followed a football team that won during the regular season.
It’s basically a crapshoot. Eagles, Seahawks, and 49ers went 2-2 in 2013 preseason, the Broncos lost to the awful Texans in their preseason week 3 “dress rehearsal”, Indy lost all 4 preseason games, etc.
After considering this a bit more, the reason for my cynicism is the similarities between this year and last are so glaring. We have the upgrades at several positions and downgrades and uncertainty at some others. We have the promising players who are “excited to be here” because the Browns’ prior incompetence means they have a chance they wouldn’t have elsewhere. We have the new coach who seems competent but will take some time to get his system installed. We have yet another quarterback “controversy” between two mediocre QBs. Our few perennial stars continue to age. Our few above average players move a year closer to free agency. Haslam brought this team up half a notch from whatshisname but two years later, we’re in the exact same place.
Last year I was all in on the Browns. I was thinking 8-8 and maybe challenging for a wild card. Weeden had a year under his belt and looked pretty good in the preseason. Trent Richardson was poised to be the “next LT” in Norv Turner’s offense. Ray Horton came in as the hot commodity that was going to take the defense to the next level. Gordon was primed for a breakout season. It was all there. There was no possible way that the 2013 Browns were going to be worse than the 2012 Browns (5-11). I would have bet anyone $100 on that.
Then they got worse. We can talk about how they looked better at times, how the talent was upgraded, how they had so many Pro Bowlers. The bottom line is that you are what your record says you are, and they were 4-12.
So when I think about how the Browns will be this year, all I can think is that I’m not falling for it again. I want to think we’re better and that this is the year it all starts coming together. But I’ve thought that a lot over the past 15 years. My heart says they have more talent and can contend for a playoff spot, but my brain says they are 5-11 until proven otherwise.
Please…I beg of you, my beloved Cleveland Browns. Prove otherwise.
I think to a large degree your words were Haslams on last season and the expectations going in.
he might not return your call if Golden Corral is running a lunch special
but we were near their level a few years ago when we played one of the ugliest games in recent NFL history. it wasn’t Bills v. Browns in the 2 for 19 game win ugly, but it was in the same stadium.
is preseason regressed Hoyer worse than 14 games of flipper-Weeden and elite-Campbell?
preseason seems to indicate what QBs are good against vanilla offenses with no pressure. bigger arms and non-mobile-reliant QBs tend to look better.
That game set football back a few years. If I recall, at least the weather was pretty awful for the bills game. Wasn’t the seattle one just rainy?
That would be extremely tough to do. I’m not saying that Hoyer isn’t capable of it, I’m just saying that I don’t BELIEVE he’s capable of it.
Yeah, and I bought it hook, line, and sinker. I was still on board at the bye when we were 4-5 and coming off a huge home win over BAL. Coming up we had a CIN team that we had soundly beaten earlier in the year, a PIT team at home that was struggling mightily, and a terrible JAX team at home. Then we proceeded to go 0-7 to end the season, including 2 losses to PIT, the embarrassing home loss to JAX, and the travesty in NE.
At first I didn’t like or understand the firing of Chud, but the more I looked at what happened and thought about it, I don’t blame Haslam for canning him. We had every chance to turn the corner in the 2nd half of last year and didn’t even win a game. The pieces were largely there (much like they seem to be this year), and nothing happened.
Last season “broke” me of my usual cautious optimism. It made me question everything I thought I knew about this team, its talent level, and its potential. On paper, we should be better this season. In reality, I’m not sure what to believe.
Defensively, I’d say the roster is improved, although it was decent to start with. We have depth and many players who are on the upswing of their development. One area of concern might be CB since our starters already have minor injuries and their backups are inexperienced. We also need to improve our pass rush. This defense should steadily improve and be near dominant by season’s end. If we win more games than expected, it will be our defense that makes it happen.
Offensively this does not look a whole lot better than last year. Our line might be improved if Bitonio can do better than Lavaua (sure hope so) and the light bulb comes on for Schwartz (doubtful). And they all need to stay healthy because there is absolutely nothing behind them. Our WR’s consist of a guy who used to be a decent #2 before a lot of injuries and a collection of undersized slot guys (plus a rotating PS type). If there is one area that is so weak it could derail the entire season this is it, so hopefully they can pull off a trade. We have a good collection of TE’s who will probably be used a lot. We have an ok situation at RB, which is much better than last year, but one injury might change that. Also, I expect every defense to stack the box in order to stop the run, unless we can effectively throw long passes, which I highly doubt. Our best QB from last year returns, although slightly inhibited by a major injury. Our backup is not ready to be an NFL QB, and there is no way of knowing if/when he will be or if his deep flutterball passes are correctable. Although we cut Grossman, he’ll likely be added again at some point this season to take the Jason Campbell role.
So, in summation. Our defense should improve, but stats may not show this since they will be on the field for 2/3 of most games. Our offense has a chance to be monumentally God-awful, and will probably look painfully familiar. I expect about a 1 or 2 win improvement over last year, but the same or worse wouldn’t shock me either.
yep. Thinking just about the head coaches can drive a fan insane. Even though we get a new one most years no one even thinks about a term we used to use all the time: “learning curve.” Maybe because more time was not going to help to some (Palmer, Romeo, Shurmur, Mangini) or coaches were going to be short-leashed regardless of what players or support system they were given (Chud, Pettine?).
In 16 seasons they’ve had 7 head coaches, which is insane when you consider that this includes the expansion era. And the best was Butch Davis, who kind of lost it in Berea and hasn’t considered for another HC position since.
Shoot, seeing now that you were saying to look at player performance and not overall win-loss. I would think that teams implementing a new offense typically performed worse in the preseason than teams that aren’t implementing a new offense, but I admit I have no desire to research it.
Makes sense. Like you I’m curious but not curious enough to actually go find out.
“Last season “broke” me of my usual cautious optimism. It made me question everything I thought I knew about this team, its talent level, and its potential. On paper, we should be better this season. In reality, I’m not sure what to believe.”
Wow, absolutely feel exactly this.
Just to exhaust the Haslam angle, I think as he watched this team implode down the stretch last year it all circled back to his receiving “advice” from the NFL powers that be to bring Banner on board and everything that ensued as a result that lead him to completely clean house, reboot and start again. I do not believe we should expect Haslam to have a short fuse when it comes to the front office as a rule. I think he trusted those he thought had more knowledge than he did for advice against what he believed himself. Subsequently he realized he’s better off following his own internal compass and that is the FO that’s in place now. Even if we struggle this year I don’t see Haslam knee-jerking going forward and will leave these guys in place long enough to prove what they can or can’t accomplish.
I don’t want to believe it’s possible (then again, no, it’s early September, I don’t want to believe it’s possible).
Just a little wet if I remember correctly. And, we won the game on the phantom return clipping that didn’t actually happen.
okay, let’s go unit-by-unit:
OL – starting unit added Bitonio and Greco looks better. but, we have no holdovers whatsoever on the backup unit and, in fact, only McQuistan made it as a backup OL from what we had this offseason (that is nuts!!!). 1 injury could derail us there.
QB – have to believe that Hoyer+Manziel will be better than what we had last year.
TE – another year for Cameron and Dray added to Barnidge. Slightly improved.
RB/FB – actual NFL RBs. we almost had to improve here.
WR – no Gordon means we regressed. hopefully, enough guys step up to help make up for his loss somewhat.
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DL – another year for our youngsters. as good as Jaccobi looked, it’ll be hard to keep him on the PS once a team has some injuries hit. improved.
LB – OLB is fine. but, ILB is weak on depth even with Kirksey looking good thus far. improved.
DB – depth actually has been surprisingly okay. Gilbert will have growing pains, but we should be pretty good year and pretty well improved overall. improved.
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Overall, we have to wait to see how the coaching staff uses everyone to see if the actual results will improve and we have a few critical units that could derail the season, but the overall talent does seem to be improved and we should be able to start winning games. Please, this season? Please!
good starting QB seems to be a pretty good (though not perfect) indicator
Butch Davis ran the UNC program for 5 seasons as HC. He may have ran it into the ground through academic scandal*, but it’s a bit disingenuous to suggest he wasn’t considered for a HC after the Browns.
*and, now we even know that UNC’s academic fraud pre-dates Butch’s term there by many years. sure, he didn’t do anything to stop it, but initially it was assumded that it was his teams that started it.
That play-action seam route to Jordan Cameron should be there a couple times per game, which usually leads to some pretty big gains. Aside from that, I think the passing offense will need to dink and dunk their way down the field while mixing in a lot of runs. Think Patriots’ offense, but not as good.
I remember that week. SMFH
i think that’s a good assessment. Time, of course, will tell how short the fuse is
i met a guy at a bar the year after Butch got fired from Cleveland. he was a UNC alum. He was all in my face about how good Butch Davis was.
Said UNC would win a conference and national championship – i guess he had to settle for 2 Meineke Car Care Bowl losses, some 8-and-fives, and that one Music City Bowl win against a terrible Tennessee team.
Said that Miami team that Butch built won the title but Coker got the glory. Shouldn’t he have known – right there – that when someone else takes YOUR team and wins a title that you couldn’t win, that’s not a good argument to make for how good you are??
The whole reason I wrote that is because I always hated Butch Davis, I thought he was overrated, and I felt the teams should have been better under him.
is that what makes the NFL “the greatest sport for fans, bar none”??
I never realized that. In fact, I would argue that it’s the constant commercial interruptions, the 14-minutes of actual game action during a 200+ minute game, horrific refereeing, a weekly slew of brain injuries, and a unilateral failure of the commissioner’s office to control its own judicial process.
But I guess I’m wrong.
It’s funny (not the good kind) how many fans seem to be in that exact place of just saying, “Please, this season. PLEASE!”
“Flaws?”
and Percy Harvin. And Doug Baldwin.
Those guys aren’t average. They aren’t Pro-Bowlers, but they’re productive NFL receivers.
Add in a defense’s inability to play 6 DB’s against Marshawn Lynch, and you’ve got room to throw.
Wouldn’t Football Following Philosophy be FFP?
imagine how much it’s going to mess up people’s holiday plans if the Browns are in the playoff hunt and people actually need to schedule around their games? these are problems I want to have 🙂
as a coach and from what I know of him as a person, I am not a fan of Butch Davis. but, I don’t think that Canes team was losing to Oklahoma and FSU making it over Miami was still the biggest “wrong” in the BCS era (seeing as Miami beat them).