Kendrick Lamar to perform before Cavs Home Opener
October 22, 2014Reflections on LeBron’s meaning to Akron: While We’re Waiting…
October 23, 2014Too often, it seems, Cleveland sports fans pine for the next hero to lead them to a championship. And, I’m not talking about any bandwagon fans who only root for the Browns because the Johnny Manziel Show came to town. I’m looking at the hardcore Muni Lot-tailgating, Bernie Kosar jersey-wearing, season-ticket holders who have endured the pain of not only losing games, but the team as well.
At the slightest hint that Brian Hoyer had the ability to lead the Browns to a winning record, he instantly became immune to criticism and garnered enough fan support to earn a local endorsement from Mr. Hero. After the dominating win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, even talk of a contract extension for Hoyer cropped up. Yet, after one bad performance, many fans seem ready to move on from him completely, either immediately or when Manziel is ready to take over the reigns. Just compare the comments on my post after the Steelers game where I cast some doubt into Hoyer’s abilities to Craig’s post-game article after the Jaguars game. The beauty of Cleveland fans is that they will hold players who win for their city in the highest regard and fight for them against any doubt. But, the curse of Clevelanders is if players don’t live up to the lofty expectations, they are immediately pushed out.
The curse of Clevelanders is if players don’t live up to the lofty expectations, they are immediately pushed out.
Prior to Sunday’s game against Jacksonville, his record of 5-2 as a quarterback in Cleveland was good enough to make him seem legendary in light of performances from Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell, and Seneca Wallace. Now, a 29-year old journeyman quarterback from the suburbs of Cleveland, is seen by many as another quarterback who the town got too excited about too quickly only to be let down. And, they’re probably right.
The Jaguars finally exposed Hoyer’s lack of pocket passing ability by shutting down the running game and forcing the Browns into third and long situations. In the first five games of the season, Kyle Shanahan was able to call on his stable of three promising running backs to carry the offense and, then, run play action passes to take advantage of the linebackers and safeties creeping up to stop the run. The misdirection helped Hoyer who was able to move and find throwing lanes created by misdirection rather than using impressive arm strength and accuracy. He does not have the arm strength or accuracy beyond short routes to “throw receivers open” or fit the ball into tight spots despite good coverage. Therefore, when forced to make throws to average to below-average receivers standing in the pocket, Hoyer struggles mightily.
What I’m not saying is that Hoyer is a failure at quarterback and needs to be replaced. That is the furthest thought in my mind. My point is that, as former Cardinals coach would say, he is who we thought he was rather than what we hoped he was. Sometimes, teams think they find a quarterback out of nowhere, always desiring the next Kurt Warner to walk into the NFL and dominate from start to finish. That almost never happens, but the possibility that it does entices everyone.
Take a look at these four stat lines from seven game samples and guess who these quarterbacks are.
If you guessed Brian Hoyer was player A, Matt Cassel was player B, Ryan Fitzpatrick was player C, and player D was Josh Freeman, you are correct—and you need to seriously reconsider things you commit to memory. Of course, Cassel, Fitzpatrick, and Freeman each have followed up their shockingly good performances with less-than-stellar careers. This excercise is not meant to prove that Hoyer will follow their careers and end up as a career backup, but rather to show that this phenomenon happens. Average quarterbacks in a system that fits well with talented players and coaches around them can succeed in this league and even win games. The issue remains that if they are not surrounded by a combination of these factors, many quarterbacks regress to the mean and struggle.
While standing behind the best offensive line in football, Hoyer was able to take a luxurious amount of time to allow receivers to get open, never once worrying about the pressure. The same line gave the Browns one of the best running games in football which allowed Hoyer to get out of the pocket on play action passes, as I noted above. But, when any part of this machine known as Kyle Shanahan’s offense breaks down (Alex Mack), the quarterback is asked to do more. We learned that Hoyer will likely have issues with this increased responsibility.
Going forwards, pay attention to how Shanahan is forced to change up the offense due to defenses keying on Hoyer’s weakness, throwing inside the pocket. Can Paul McQuistan or anyone else who is, at least, a somewhat capable of playing like an NFL offensive lineman help shore up the right side of the line? If the run cannot rebound to the level it was before Alex Mack was injured, either Hoyer or Shanahan must find a way to overcome this obstacle. Much of the poor performance in Jacksonville can be attributed to the leaky offensive line or shaky running game, but at the end of the day, Hoyer is on the hook, whether fair or unfair.
Up next, the Browns face the winless Oakland Raiders who have allowed 218 yards per game on the ground, a welcome statistic to the Browns after last week. I fully expect Hoyer, the backfield, and the offensive line to look much better because the match-up favors everything Kyle Shanahan’s offense does well. But, if they struggle once again, expect the Johnny chant to get louder than it has been since the first pre-season game. This game is absolutely winnable for Hoyer and the Browns, but, after last week’s offensive performance, there are no guarantees.
20 Comments
I’m not sure where you got the 60% completion rate (sample of 7 games, not including all of this year?). His rate this year is 55.8%, which is 34/35 QBs in the league. Obviously going 16/41 last week didn’t help numbers, but his accuracy has never been good (even at Michigan St).
His TD/Int ratio is good, which having seen the games I think is a partly a product of good fortune (some bad balls that were luckily not picked), but generally, he doesn’t toss many risky balls and usually has good reads on coverage.
The deep balls he has completed definitely help his yardage numbers (but as has been discussed in previous posts), a lot of that is due to smoke and mirror play actions where guys are wide open in blown coverage. Other than a beautiful throw to Cameron on a seam route vs Pitt, I haven’t seen much of him hitting guys down field.
One wonder that I had but haven’t looked back at game-tape to prove/dis-prove. McQuistan is noticeable slower than Greco (also weaker, but not the point here). So, did Kyle call less RG-pull plays? These were a staple for the misdirection runs and play-fakes in previous weeks and could return if Greco is back at RG.
Personally, I don’t understand a lot of the grievances people deliver towards Hoyer, especially the whole passive aggressive “Im not saying hes bad but hes not good” schtick that seems to be catching on.
Look, last season through their first three games, Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell had almost the exact same statistics. Not just some, almost entirely. I don’t think anyone in the front office who was a part of bringing in Hoyer, or anyone who is a talent evaluator on the current or previous staffs, ever thought, or even said, that Hoyer would be the next football messiah to lead the browns down the primrose path.
What Hoyer DOES bring to the table is consistency and a level of QB play that we have struggled to see here in Cleveland for a plethora of reasons. These reasons not always being the TALENT of the QB either, but the ability of the players and staff around him.
I don’t understand the gripe about him ‘not being able to throw the long ball’. How many times have the Browns actually called a play that was a designated long ball pass? In fact, the better question is how many times SHOULD the Browns be calling for the long bomb? I, personally, don’t think the personnel is there on the team to be consistently looking to unleash the dragon, and it isn’t because Hoyer cant throw it that far. This team isn’t, and shouldn’t be, built on a style of offense that you would have with someone like Manning, Brees, or Rodgers and that’s OK. Seriously, it is. It isn’t flashy, but it gets the job done and that’s the point. Why try to be something youre not?
Which brings me to my next issue. I absolutely hate, hate, hate when people try to criticize someone by saying they’re a ‘System Quarterback’. Uh, hello? What is that supposed to even mean!? Are you saying that Peyton manning is only good because of his system, but he’s not a TRULY good quarterback because he can’t run a college option? The whole point of a system is to accentuate the abilities and strengths of your team while hiding your weaknesses. If your quarterback DOESNT fit in your system, you have quite a problem. To me this is an absurd comment. You don’t hear anyone saying so and so are ‘System Cornerbacks’ or ‘System Defensive Lineman’ or ‘System Right Guards’, its just silly.
I also want to make a quick note in defense of McQuistan. Going from tackle to guard isn’t exactly just doing the same thing closer to the center and we’ve all been talking all season long about how sometimes it seems that Shanahans system seems complex on the line. The dude did a bad job, no doubt about it, but I think compared to some other team’s offensive line backups, he’s a good one to have around.
oh, I assume that the 7-game sample he referenced is the first 7 games he started for the Browns (so, 2 games last year, the first 5 games this year). That would mean the JAX disaster is not included.
You have to remember that prominent members of the media thought Jason Campbell was elite (hehehehehehehehe).
Hoyer is actually player A, so that’d include all games this year and last year (minus the Bills game I assume)
Wait, so are you saying Josh Freeman is still available?
sorry, the text stuck with me (says “seven game samples”) and I neglected reading the table thoroughly enough. Thanks.
you are just begging Vince Evans to make an appearance with comments like that one. you might want to mention who won the 2006 O-ROY award before it’s too late.
yes, he is in fact a free man (excuses self out)
http://33.media.tumblr.com/88594f217641926ba2f0ae8e32d69aa2/tumblr_mlwqj6qCsl1r1mr1po1_500.gif
LEAVE MK ALONE!!!!
Vince Young good sir? Vince Evans apparently equally sucked too!
Vince Evans or Vince Young? I’d put a $20 on Vince Evans being closer to game shape than Vince Young at this point
Mgbode is correct. I was excluding the Jacksonville game when I got those numbers. The eighth is the game in which he tore his ACL in. I’m not statistically savy enough to find the numbers without including that, unfortunately.
Career gamelogs on pro-football-reference allow you to compile them game-by-game:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HoyeBr00/gamelog/
V.E. was a poster here and on other NFL blogs begging fans to rally up to demand Vince Young be signed. It was quite humorous.
If the Browns want to fix this via a Free Agency signing, they get themselves a good offensive lineman. That will get the machine working again.
Hoyer has very little to do with it: If you put a great quarterback behind a sieve of an offensive line, that quarterback will not do well. If you put a mediocre quarterback behind a great OL, he’ll do well enough to win.
I’ll repeat my earlier argument: Manziel should stay on the bench, not because it will necessarily improve the Browns’ chances this year, but because we want him to learn how to do the intangibles that Hoyer does extremely well (manage the offense, show leadership, etc) before we risk a career-ending injury to him. It’s not like we’re making the playoffs this year, folks.
I think this analysis completely ignores 2013. Hoyer won 2 games last year with no running game (32 out of 32) and an average offensive line (16 our of 32) . This proves that in 2014, it’s very possible for Hoyer to win games without a spectacular offensive line and running game. Still not calling him great etc, but he is not a “game manager” who can only win with a top 10 running game.
Making Manziel ride the pine will make him hungry like a man trapped in the desert. It will be awesome. Best thing for everyone.