LeBron’s return highlights offseason of Cavs oddities: While We’re Waiting…
October 30, 2014Cleveland Cavaliers 2014-15 Predictions: WFNY Roundtable Part 2
October 30, 2014Well, here we are. After a season of huh and a whirlwind summer, we’re about ready to embark on the Peak Cavs era. As always before a Cleveland sports season starts, the WFNY brain trust gathers to give their thoughts on some of the key elements of the upcoming season. We also do our best to prognosticate, which can lead to both eerily accurate or humorous results. The group assembled may break a site record for most voices in one article, which I think speaks well to what you can expect from us as a Cleveland Cavaliers coverage team this year.
Without further ado, I’ll be your moderator for four pointed questions in the first of two installments today about our 2014-15 Cleveland Cavaliers. Let’s jump in.
What particular statistical area will this Cavs team be elite?
Scott Sargent: Is “offense” too general? I think this team could set a record for offensive efficiency if they gel as quickly as needed. I do fear that teams will try to slow down the pace on defense, so breaking the points-per-game barrier like the Steve Nash-led Suns will be tough, but they’ll be pretty damn close.
Craig Lyndall: The Cavaliers will be elite in terms of wins. I can’t pretend to be an advanced statistics guru for the NBA. I know a bit about that stuff, but I don’t have any truly deep insight into the Cavaliers in a way that can project their elite status in any specific category, so I’ll cop out and just say wins.
Jacob Rosen: I think there’s no doubt that this offense is going to be very, very good. It could be the best in the NBA immediately, it could be one of the best all-time (that concept was the basis for my Cavs Zine article). But I’ll be particularly intrigued by the pace of this team. LeBron has never played for a top-10 pace team. Can Blatt push the pace with Love and Irving as great transition players? That could make the offense even more great.
Ben Cox: Is “least number of dribbles in a possession” a statistical category? The Cavs are going to be a beast to handle offensively, but their transition game could be downright transcendent.
Ryan Jones: This team’s offensive efficiency is going to be off the charts. LeBron is one of the most efficient players the league has ever seen and he’ll quickly break the bad habits of Dion and Kyrie. Last season, some thought LeBron would try to shoot 60% for a whole season which would be ABSURD but actually not impossible for LBJ. Add in David Blatt’s cerebral basketball mind, a big who can shoot and pass like Love, the shooting of James Jones and Mike Miller, and this team is going to fill it up in a way that NBA nerds will forever remember.
Joe Gilbert: The Cavs will be elite in scoring the basketball. I believe they will be in the top three of the highest scoring teams in the NBA. The team should be dominate in the fastbreak and get easy buckets to drive up their scoring average to over 107 points per game. They will be elite in making baskets this season.
Kyle Welch: ORtg – The Cavs may score less points per game than the Clippers or Warriors, but the Cavs will score more points per possession.
Will Gibson: Defensive rebounding. Kevin Love rebounded 29.5% of available defensive rebounds last year. Anderson Varejao was good for 28.2%, Tristan Thompson snagged 21.5%, LeBron grabbed 18.9%, and Shawn Marion hauled in 17.4%. If I understand statistics correctly, and I believe I do, then the Cavs will rebound the ball before the other team even shoots it.
Really though, they’re going to be great at cleaning the glass. Love is a box-out wizard, Tristan and LeBron can soar over foes, and Andy will plow through a brick wall, rebuild it, and plow through it again if it means getting the ball. Rebounding was the Heat’s bugaboo during LeBron’s tenure in Miami, but it should be a strength in Cleveland. Best of all, rebounding will kick start those beautiful fast breaks.
Kirk Lammers: Most of you went with an offensive efficiency metric, so I’ll back up Will on the rebounding. Not just defensive rebounding though; what about offensive rebounding? We know how good Thompson and Varejao are at chasing down loose balls and getting putbacks (11.4% ORB each last year playing together). Kevin Love was at 8.5% last season, which has decreased each year from his rookie total of 15.1% as he’s moved to more of a perimeter player. Heck, even Lou Amundson and Brendan Haywood have career marks of 14.1% and 12.7% respectively. Despite their relative lack of size, this team should own the boards on both ends.
Verdict: Offensive efficiency (4), Transition/pace (2), Rebounding (2), Wins (1)
What single aspect of this team scares you the most for this season?
Craig: Injuries, injuries, and injuries. While the Cavaliers are a deep team, I don’t really want to find out what it would be like for any two or three of their key players to go down for an extended period or (gasp) at the same time.
Will: The possibility of a major injury to an important player terrifies me. I don’t even want to talk about it. Let’s move on.
Kyle: Depth. An injury in either the frontcourt or backcourt could make for some real ugly rotations.
Scott: Injuries. The skill is there. The coaching is there. The top-down message is there. The players appear selfless enough that playing time won’t be an issue. The fans are amped. Defense is something that can be improved upon with an addition or two. Injuries are uncontrollable, and, to me, are the only thing that could really derail this Cavalier team hoisting the Larry O’Brien.
Jacob: Most folks will answer defense, certainly. I think, specifically, I’m intrigued by the number of three-point shot attempts that teams attempt against the Cavs. Last year, teams out-scored the Cavs by 6.6 points per game on threes alone. A main factor was simply that the Cavs allowed a gigantic number of attempts. Threes are worth more than twos. Can Blatt instill defensive principles into guys like Irving and Waiters to actually close out on these and prevent them from happening?
Ben: Non-LeBron wing defenders. I’m more than a little concerned how big of a role Shawn Marion is expected to play. After LeBron and Marion, the Cavs wings are Irving, Delly, Dion, and Mike Miller. Who’s the best defender out of that group: Delly? Of course, both Kyrie and Dion have the physical tools to be competent defenders, but they’ve got to prove it.
Joe: I second Ben in that the Cavs perimeter defense scares me the most. Because of the lack of a true shot blocker, the Cavs need to be strong on the outside to not allow easy drives to the basket. Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, and Matthew Dellavedova will need to play better defense than they have ever played in their careers. The guards must be stronger at keeping players in front of them and not allowing open drives to the basket.
Ryan: The interior defense is a big concern. Whether Varejao can stay healthy is a big concern as is whether or not the Cavs realize Brendan Haywood wasn’t in the league last year. I think LeBron and Marion end up guarding the other team’s fours quite a bit with Love or Tristan Thompson bodying opposing centers. These small lineups may be some of the Cavs’ most productive lineups offensively, but the interior defense will be a point of contention.
Kirk: Size and interior defense. Obviously, catastrophic injuries can derail this team’s pursuit, but as long as they are relatively healthy come mid-April, things will work out. I think the Cavs have ample depth with the bench weapons in Miller, Marion, and Thompson able to fill-in the starting lineup without much of a dropoff. To me, it’s those matchups with Chicago (Pau and Noah), Houston (Howard), the Clippers (Blake, Jordan, and Hawes), Spurs (Duncan), and Memphis (Marc Gasol and Randolph). Some of those teams don’t have enough ammo to go toe-to-toe with the Cavs in a series, but some of them certainly do. Any of those teams, however, pose a tough matchup on a given night for which the Cavs are going to have to compensate. Haywood or Amundson MUST be able to provide 15-18 effective minutes bare minimum on those nights to absorb fouls. Otherwise, a deadline move will have to be made for insurance come late May and June.
Verdict: Injuries (4), Perimeter defense (3), Interior defense (2)
What should the big man rotation look like? Would you rather Andy or Tristan start? Will a fourth big consistently crack the rotation without injury?
Will: I would rather Tristan start, which is actually an endorsement of Andy. Wild Thing’s smarts, screening, and passing would help keep bench units organized, and he even flashed a workable post-up game in the preseason. More important than starting, I expect Andy to get most of the crunch time minutes at center.
I expect two of Love/Andy/Tristan on the court most of the time, and there is room to get creative with LeBron or Marion at the power forward spot. Brendan Haywood and Lou Amundson will get some minutes here and there, but I wouldn’t expect either to be a significant contributor. Unless the Cavs sign or trade for another large human, I don’t expect a fourth big man to be out there consistently.
Kyle: I would rather see Varejao start. It just feels right with him starting next to LeBron. Thompson should definitely get more minutes, though. Haywood is going to get a lot of minutes; it will be interesting to see how effective he is.
Scott: I would prefer Andy, simply for his pick-and-pop abilities—he’s borderline automatic from the elbows. I like Tristan’s game and he surprised me a bit during preseason, but I think this starting five unit is just that much stronger if they deploy another shooter (term used loosely). Tristan will obviously be the first big off of the bench (if not the first player). If you’re talking “fourth big” you’re looking at Alex Kirk (who should be in Canton), Lou Amundson (who’s shorter than Tristan) or Brendan Haywood (who may or may not be ready to roll). I can see Haywood getting some time in the event David Blatt needs a stopper for a few minutes, but that’d be the max. Lou would get that role if Haywood’s inactive.
Joe: I think the rotation will consist of mostly Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and Anderson Varejao with Brendan Haywood coming in when they play big teams like Chicago and Houston. I think Varejao will start the entire season at center barring any injuries. Tristan will be a good player off the bench because he can help make the bench get out on the break and be a rebounding machine for the scorers like Shawn Marion and Mike Miller. I think a key could be LeBron James moving down low to play the power forward for a stretch in games. The team could go small with him at the four and be more explosive on the break.
Ben: I’d prefer Andy to start, because he can make the defense pay with his mid-range jumper, plus he’s a better/craftier finisher around the basket. As for the rotation? No idea. LeBron is so versatile that he can fit with just about anyone. And Love’s skillset is so unique that he offers different looks with both Thompson and Varejao.
Ryan: I prefer Tristan getting the start at center and Andy stabilizing the second unit. Varejao is more skilled than Tristan and a better passer. I fear a lineup on the floor that includes both Tristan and Brendan Haywood will take the beautiful David Blatt offense and turn it into a whole lot of dribbling and chucking from the guards. The Cavs will make a move at some point this year for another big — they have to.
Jacob: Personally, I think I’d rather Tristan start. I’m moderately concerned about Andy’s durability, and I’d want to conserve him for later in the season. In an ideal world, I’d try to be creative and limit Andy to 18-24 minutes per game. But considering that’s unlikely to happen, you can easily see 36 for Love, 30 for Andy and 26 for Tristan. That would only two minutes or so for LeBron at the 4 or Amundson/others off the bench. I don’t think the Cavs will really need a fourth non-LeBron big because their advantage will be in playing small, going fast and being versatile.
Kirk: For me this isn’t about merit, it’s about fit. I would rather pair Tristan, the less superior offensive player, with four incredibly talented offensive players in James, Love, Irving, and Waiters. Let Varejao freelance more and have some more of those mid-range shots in a second unit with Miller, Marion, Delly, James Jones, Haywood or Amundson, etc. The fourth big storyline will continue to interest me. I’ll play Jakey’s minutes game and say Love will play more like 32 minutes, 26 for Andy, and 26 for Tristan as Blatt will diligently work to keep Andy’s minutes lower. That leaves 12 minutes for either LeBron/Marion minutes at the 4 or the fourth big. On most nights, I think it will make sense to play a 8-9 man rotation and the fourth big doesn’t play a significant role. We may even see some hyper-small lineups with two of Marion/LeBron/Love manning the 4 and 5 for short bursts. But, I do expect to see certain games where due to matchups Haywood or Amundson (or Kirk, as a long shot) grabs double digit minutes. You might as well figure out if these guys are viable fallback options.
Craig: I would rather see Andy start. I am fine if Tristan even has more minutes and I know some will prefer Andy off the bench, but for whatever reason it is my preference for Tristan to come off the bench.
Verdict: Varejao 5-4
Who will be the most significant bench contributor?
Ben: Heh. Dion Waiters. *runs away*
Kyle: Well, it should be Dion Waiters. Otherwise, the odd man out of the three main bigs, but Marion is going to be huge.
Jacob: I’ll go with Mike Miller. Yes, there’s no chance he plays all 82 games like he did last season (for the first time since his rookie year). Yes, he was a major defensive liability on the Grizzlies last season. But, putting Miller on the court with players like Irving and LeBron opens up the court in ways the Cavs haven’t experienced in years. I’m really excited to see how Blatt staggers lineups to maximize spacing while limiting three-point attempts for the other team.
Ryan: I’m really high on Mike Miller. Although Miller is 34 years old, he played in all 82 games last year for Memphis while shooting over 45% from deep. His shooting and the floor spacing that comes along with paired with his exceptional basketball IQ will make life a little bit easier for everyone on the offense side of the ball.
Will: I’m not counting whoever doesn’t start out of Tristan and Andy, as they’re both going to play big minutes. Shawn Marion is my choice. It’s dangerous to lean on a 36 year-old whose game has been predicated on athleticism, but he seems smart and savvy enough to thrive in his NBA golden years.
His defensive versatility is what makes him most valuable. He can play the 3 in big lineups or the 4 in small ones. He can make guys like Carmelo and Durant work for their shots. He can be paired with LeBron, he can hang in the post, he can survive switches onto guards, and he’s a solid rebounder.
Joe: I think the most significant bench contributor is Shawn Marion. Marion will be a key scorer off the bench because he can create his own shot and help get others shots. He also is a great offensive rebounder, which can make the second team tough to stop on offense. His biggest contribution will be on defense, though. I think he will play heavy minutes late in the game because of his ability to defend on the perimeter. He could be one of the five on the floor when the team is finishing off a close game.
Scott: Shawn Marion, easily. But it will largely be on defense (not showing up in the box score) and in transition. The Matrix having a better season than Andrew Wiggins is not out of the question.
Kirk: I don’t think you can go wrong by saying Marion, Miller, or Thompson (assuming he stays on the bench). I will go with Marion because he has the most unique skillset of the trio. He’s going to be asked to do a lot on the defensive end, and anything he provides on offense is gravy.
Craig: I’m going to say Delly because I want it to be Delly. I really want him to develop into that guy who doesn’t miss a certain three pointer and can also man up on defense. That being said, it’s definitely going to be Mike Miller.
Verdict: Shawn Marion (4), Mike Miller (3), Dion Waiters (2)
That’s it for now. Be sure to check in for the second half of our predictions later this morning.
7 Comments
I know Marion or Miller will be huge off the bench, but Delly just brings so much to this team that they need.
I’m most concerned about Dion this year. He’s said what he needs to so far, but if him starting doesn’t last, can he handle going to the bench maturely, and becoming a Ginobili like 6th man?
Put me down for:
-Rebounding
-Injuries (because Cleveland. Defense will be ugly, but Blatt will come up with something)
-Start TT (though Andy should start tonight, just because)
-The Matrix (could EASILY be Dion, but I have zero faith in him just yet)
The anticipation is killer. IT’S ALL HAPPENING, KENNY
“…it’s definitely going to be Mike Miller.”
Thought I heard something similar about Sergey Karasev last Opening Night. 🙂
**Says the guy who loved the Jarrett Jack signing.
Karasev was my hope and my dream. Mike Miller is the answer. 🙂
Nothing to say but “Agreed, agreed, agreed…”
Statistics:
We should lead the league in defensive rebounding and scoring efficiency. We also could lead the league in assists since both our passing and shooting is average to very good at every position. We will strive for the most wins because home court advantage is a major priority given our youth/lack of playoff experience.
Scary things:
Injuries, particularly to Andy and Kyrie. Our one saving grace could be that we have a number of decent trade deadline assets.
Bigs:
Love and Andy start. Tristan still plays 26-30 mins, Andy under 25, and Love 35. Haywood’s minutes depend on matchups and effectiveness, and he won’t play in most games. Amundson is here for garbage time only.
Bench:
I think we’ll have a basic 9 man rotation, always keeping one of Kyrie, LeBron or Dion on the floor. The key bench players will be Tristan (or Andy), Marion, Miller and Delly. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Delly’s role increases as the season progresses, especially if he continues to improve his shot. The other players will probably all get minutes due to rest time for the starters, injuries and garbage time.
Are you guys high? The Cavaliers bench is atrocious. Mike Miller just flat out sucks and let’s not pretend that he doesn’t. Shawn Merion is old as hell and isn’t even an effective player anymore. Kevin Love is about to have his annual hand injury any day now. Lastly, Kyrie Irving is a turnover machine who has never taken his team anywhere. Lebron will be Lebron, but lets not forget he is now 2 for 5 in the finals. This team wasn’t built to win this year, not with that trash bench.