Cleveland Cavaliers 2014-15 Predictions: WFNY Roundtable Part 1
October 30, 2014Cleveland Browns Film Room: How the defense has improved
October 30, 2014And we’re back! (in more ways than one!) After a season of huh and a whirlwind summer, we’re about ready to embark on the Peak Cavs era. As always before a Cleveland sports season starts, the WFNY brain trust gathers to give their thoughts on some of the key elements of the upcoming season. We also do our best to prognosticate, which can lead to both eerily accurate or humorous results. The group assembled may break a site record for most voices in one article, which I think speaks well to what you can expect from us as a Cavs coverage team this year. Be sure to check out Part 1 from earlier this morning where we discuss the biggest bench contributor, our greatest fear, and other topics. Without further ado, I’ll be your moderator for three more questions in the second half of our predictions about the 2014-15 Cleveland Cavaliers. Let’s continue.
Who will benefit the most from LeBron, Love, and Kyrie: Tristan Thompson or Dion Waiters? Who are you more comfortable putting into the team’s long-term plans?
Will: This one is tricky for me, as both players’ lives are going to be way easier this year. I think Dion has the greater long-term upside, but Tristan’s contributions will be seen more readily. He’s guaranteed a lot of minutes, and all he really needs to do is be athletic out there and he’ll get a couple big dunks per game.
Dion has a tougher learning curve. He’s shown that he can be a spot-up threat, but it would be foolhardy to neuter the driving bulldog within him. He likes the ball in his hands, and it will take him some time to figure out how to leverage the players around him into good shots.
Forced to pick one, I choose Dion. I don’t feel especially comfortable with that choice, as I only know what the word “mercurial” means because of him, but he has the potential to be a top-five NBA shooting guard. Tristan has valuable skills and I think he’ll be good on this team, but his best-case scenario is something along the lines of a more athletic P.J. Brown.
Ben: Dion. Thompson was already a hard worker. Dion had raw talent but not the best practice habits. Having Dion see LeBron be the first guy in and last guy to leave, well, that’ll do wonders, methinks. I’m not quite sure if either of them are longterm, like looooongterm, guys. It wouldn’t surprise me if neither are here in two seasons.
Ryan: Dion should benefit the most from his new superstar teammates. Not only should Waiters be wide open for oodles of catch and shoot opportunities, but once he receives the ball there should be little in his way in terms of help defense, leaving Dion just one man to beat. I’ve said before that Tristan Thompson is no more than the 7th or 8th guy on a really good team and stand by that statement. Tristan’s agent Rich Paul is planting stories in the papers clamoring over Tristan’s value to this team as he’s due for a new contract, but to me Thompson’s skill set is replicable and replaceable.
Scott: If Dion listens to LeBron, he stands to benefit the most simply due to playing time and role. Tristan will never have a play drawn for him and will only benefit from defenses collapsing. Waiters has plus catch-and-shoot abilities which should only serve to keep him on the floor. Thompson will thrive in clean-up duty, but Waiters has the potential to be an All-Star if he plays his cards right.
Jacob: Can I answer neither? Neither, as of now, appear to be the ideal fit. Perhaps I’ll go with Waiters. He showcased some very good catch-and-shoot efficiency last season. If he can learn to act as a secondary bench creator and mainly as a spot-up shooter, he could transform his entire game. With Tristan, I see his long-term fit and I’d love to keep him for many years to come. But his non-sexy skill set (no rim protection, no spacing) doesn’t make him an ideal fit next to the 4-like LeBron.
Kirk: I’m having trouble answering my own question. I think the easy answer is Thompson benefits the most from the Big 3 on the court. Absolutely nobody will have time to pay any attention to him on offense. He will take the vast majority of his shots at the rim or finishing in transition. But, Dion has a unique opportunity. If he doesn’t care about the stats and can stifle his alpha-dog instincts, he can become universally known as the best supporting player in the league and a top tier shooting guard. If Waiters chooses to only take primarily what the defense gives him, he’ll still get the opportunity to shoot it from deep, take it to the rack, and get to the line. The only difference will be that those should be much higher percentage looks.
Long term, Ben and Jacob’s notion make me sad, but they’re probably more than likely correct. Money isn’t an issue for Gilbert, but they may flip one of these two in a trade for a better fit: a bigger big or a shootier shooting guard. I’ll shoot for the moon and hitch my wagon to Waiters over Thompson.
Craig: Tristan Thompson is the easy choice here. It could be Dion, but there’s nobody who’s set up more to clean up statistically than Thompson. He doesn’t demand the ball. He doesn’t create well. He’s going to go crazy as nobody pays any attention to him and as the stars pass to him out of double teams, etc.
Joe: I think Dion Waiters will benefit the most by the Big 3. Waiters will have the ability to get past his man and get to the basket at will because of the attention Irving, James, and Love will get for their perimeter shooting. Also, I think Waiters could lead the team in fastbreak points. He should be able to leak down court with Love or James making quick outlet passes.
Kyle: Short answer: everyone. I like Thompson long-term more right now, even if the Cavs will have to overpay him somewhat.
Verdict: Waiters 7-2
How much should the Cavs push the pedal to the floor in the East? Is rest more important to you than momentum and home court in the Finals potentially? Should LeBron, Love, and the vets get some nights off?
Joe: I think the win total in the regular season is irrelevant. All that matters is getting the number one seed in the East. I say this because I think there are three elite teams in the East: Chicago, Washington, and Cleveland. So, if the Cavs can grab the one seed, they can most likely avoid either team until the Eastern Conference Finals. In terms of resting veterans or injury prone players, I am in favor of that but not to the extent of what the Heat had to do with Dwyane Wade. Giving LeBron, Varejao, Irving, and Love days off will be key to keeping them fresh for the deep playoff run. But, getting the number one seed should be the primary goal in the regular season.
Will: It depends on how well the rest of the conference plays. I’m inclined to say that David Blatt should exercise caution and rest the stars, but homecourt throughout the playoffs—at least the Eastern Conference portion—should be a priority for this team. The crowds at the Q will be bananas all year long, and there’s a chance that an opposing player gets vaporized by the flaming sabers. The Cavs should capitalize on all of that.
Jacob: Listen, I think the Cavs are a shoo-in for a top-4 seed, certainly. Beyond that? I don’t think it matters that much. With a player like LeBron, the playoffs will be a grind. I’d lean on the side of regular season rest a la the Spurs in order to maximize energy levels and health for April-June.
Kyle: It will depend on team health, injuries, and comparative records. But, if there’s any way to get the top seed in the East or overall, then they have to go for it.
Ryan: The emotional part of me wants the Cavs to gun it from game one all the way to game eighty-two, but the smart play is to just get into the playoffs with the team at optimal health. Ideally Blatt’s system catches on and even the nights where the vets take a game off, the team still functions at a high level.
Ben: I don’t think home court advantage means that much (see, 2009 and 2010). The Cavs have LeBron for the long haul and it would be in their best interest to monitor his minutes and keep his body fresh. Mike Brown ran LeBron down. The Heat rested Wade but leaned heavy on LeBron. The Cavs have enough talent that they can afford to give their stars rest (all the blowouts should help as well).
Scott: I don’t think they will. I wouldn’t mind if they did, but I think we’re looking at a 50-something-win season with all focus set squarely on April-through-June. And yes—if this means going the G-Pop route and giving his stars some rest on road trips, or four-game-five-night stretches, I’m all for it.
Craig: I’ve been taking this into account with my idea for how many wins the Cavs could have. Obviously you don’t want them flirting with the bottom half of the playoff seeding. You want them to be in the top half and it’d be nice if they are the number 1 in the East. Still, I think that’s pretty overrated, so I’m going to say the Cavs should probably pace themselves on the way to the playoffs.
Kirk: I’m actually surprised that some of the panel is only confident that the Cavs will play well enough to be a top-half of the conference playoff team. Barring significant games missed from multiple key members, I don’t see the Cavs falling outside the top two seeds in the East. I do think homecourt up to the Finals is important to go for, but there is a point where the risk isn’t worth the reward. Homecourt isn’t everything, but if it comes down to a Game 7 scenario late in the playoffs, the odds are stacked against a team going in and grabbing a win. I think Blatt and staff can be smart about it, resting the guys on the wrong side of 30 while staggering it such that the team should have a really good chance to go out and win each night.
Verdict: Rest/pace themselves over momentum/seeding 5-4
Is this ‘next year’? Do the Cavs end the drought? Who stops them or who is their biggest threat? You can add record and playoff matchups here if you so desire.
Scott: Yes. Unless the injury bug bites them hard, this is the year. Chicago, San Antonio and the Los Angeles Clippers will threaten, but these guys have all the talent in the world and an incredible fan base and storyline behind them. They may not win the East, but they’ll take a record of 56 or 57 win into the playoffs where they turn it up to levels unforeseen. The Wait Is Over.
Craig: The Cavaliers will stop themselves this year. I don’t think it will be demoralizing, but the Cavs are going to flirt with it this year and truly be ready to challenge for it the following year. Their biggest challenge will be the Bulls, but I think there’s a chance the Wizards and Heat could be right there as well.
The players change, but the Cavs have had a rivalry with the Wizards in the past. They’ve had a rivalry with Paul Pierce who (oddly) is a Wizard now. Kyrie vs. Wall. LeBron vs. Pierce. Love vs. Nene and Andy vs. Gortat? You have to like the Cavs in that matchup, but that could be a really tough team.
Joe: I think this is “the year.” As my dad has said over the last couple weeks, this is the best team the city has seen in his lifetime. I believe the Cavs win 60 games this season and gain the number one seed in the East. I think their biggest foes will be the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs. These two teams are defense oriented and so they could be able to slow the Cavs down a bit. Cleveland’s key is to get their defense to the level that it is not a hindrance. The Cavs do not need to be defensive stoppers like the Bulls. They just need to be able to make stops at the end of the game to put a game away.
Kyle: I refuse to predict that the Cavs will win the title; that will only end disastrously. If I have to pick a “most likely” team to eliminate them, I’m going to pick the Bulls. Sorry to be boring, but even the improved teams in the East may not be good enough to push the Cavs deep in a series.
Jacob: I like the Cavs as having about 60% probability to advance to the Finals. In the Finals, I’d place them as the underdog compared to any of the Western contenders (Clippers, Spurs, Thunder, etc.). So yes, the Cavs will not be favored there, but they’d still have the largest individual championship odds of any team. The East is just that easy. My prediction is a 57-25 record, 1st place in the East and a loss in the Finals to the Clippers.
Will: The Bulls have long been trumpeted as their only real competition in the East (unless you want to include the Wiz), and I agree with that. They’re a tough bunch of basketballing bastards, and they will do all they can to prevent the Cavs from getting to the Finals. Even if Rose gets hurt again, playing against them is like wrestling a porcupine—not even a little bit fun.
I tend to shy away from predictions because the possibility of looking stupid is astronomical, but: I really think the Cavs can do it this year. There are a lot of great teams in the NBA—Bulls, Spurs, Clips—and the Cavs will be one of them. That’s all you can ask for, to be among the handful of teams with a real shot. I see them sniffing 60 wins and being in the hunt for best record in the league.
There’s a world of evidence suggesting that you need to lose before you can win in the NBA. The Cavs are breaking in a rookie head coach and stars who have never been in the playoffs. Their defense could be suspect. The expectations will be crushing. The noise will be deafening.
But they have LeBron. We have LeBron. Why not us, and why not now? 98-0 or bust.
Ben: I’m not as concerned with the Bulls a lot of people seem to be. Yes, they have size and that’s going to give both LeBron and Love some problems. But when it comes down to the end of games and Blatt sticks LeBron on Derrick Rose… well, who’s running that Chicago offense? Who’s getting them a quality look? That’s even assuming Rose is still healthy by that time.
But to answer your question if this is The Year… no. I don’t think so. I could see them making the Finals, but winning it… no. Kyrie and Love will both be making their playoff debuts this year, I feel you’re asking a lot of them to win a title during their first playoff go-round.
Ryan: While the Cavaliers are more than capable of winning it this year, I think it takes a year of playoff experience as a group to get over the hump. The Spurs, Mavs, Clippers, and Bulls are all veteran groups with continuity in their rosters and have an elite coach working the sideline. The Cavs are on par with all those teams so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win it, but ultimately I think the champ comes out of the West.
Kirk: All summer long, I told myself I was not going to get roped into expecting this team to put it all together and win in its first season. The Spurs, Thunder, Bulls, Clippers, Warriors, Wizards, etc. all have much more time together than this Cleveland does. But, that’s the key, the playoffs don’t start now, they start in April.
During this season, I expect LeBron, Love, and Kyrie to form the type of chemistry that will be needed deep in the summer when things get tough. The role players will know their spots and their situations. Blatt will have that coaching feel down. Perhaps the Cavs add a role player vet to the mix (Seriously, come on, Ray Allen.)
But, I started saying, “Why not the Cavs?” The Cavs have a roster built to weather some injuries better than Chicago, Washington, or anybody in the East. I also think the “Kyrie and Love haven’t played in the playoffs” hand is being overplayed. Love and Irving have both played huge FIBA/Olympic games, and they’ll have a season’s worth of meaningful games, high profile matchups, and national TV exposure. I think the Clippers, despite my deep respect for Doc Rivers, are being overrated. OKC won’t have Durant until Christmas. It really comes down to the Spurs to me. The Spurs will have their point of no return very soon. It could have happened last year, but it didn’t. It could happen this year, but they may also have one last power-drive in them.
If it doesn’t happen this year, it’s not the end of the world, but I’m saying 60-22, 1st in the East and overall as the West elite bunches up in the 53-59 win range. The Cavs beat the Nets in five, followed by the Wizards in six. Then, the much-predicted showdown with Chicago in the ECF. The Cavs take the series in six, but it’s a fantastic series. Then, the Cavaliers square off against the Spurs, and Tim Duncan’s “next time, it will be your turn” prophecy for James and the Cavs rings true eight years later. The Cavs beat the Spurs in seven and capture the Larry O’Brien in Cleveland. #LOBOB (Larry O’Brien or Bust)
Verdict: NO 5-4
4 Comments
Here we go…
-TT benefits most. Because he doesn’t need the ball. I have a strong feeling he gets paid, and that folks won’t mind after they see the role he fills this season. And again, I just don’t trust Dion yet.
-Rest > win totals. As long as they grab a top 4 seed (I’m saying top two), then all is well. LBJ, Andy, Matrix, Miller…these guys need taken care of. Kyrie needs to be bubble-wrapped. Injury is the biggest threat. Be fresh when the games truly matter. I’m guessing 55-27, though I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t love to make a run at 73. Priorities, though.
-Still waiting for next year. Everything I’ve seen of the NBA in my life tells me you have to get knocked down first. Whether it’s to the Bulls in the ECF (though Washington does make me nervous) or the Spurs/Clips/Mavs in the Championship, that punch is coming. But feel free to prove me wrong, fellas.
Start our expectations at “Just don’t suck”, and go from there…
http://img.pandawhale.com/58669-so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-c-Sm9B.gif
Lets just sit back and hopefully enjoy the ride. Shamstradamus is predicting 60-22 but stops at saying a championship. To much will have to go right to win it all but hey maybe this time the story ends well. Big year from Kyrie Irving.
TT will be asked to play to his strengths (no more jump shots) with the possible exception of adding rim protection, something he did do well in college, but not in the NBA so far. Dion will be asked to change his game quite a bit to fit the other players around him, something he has never really done but is capable of doing. I think there’s a bigger adjustment for Dion, especially mentally. TT will benefit more this year, but Dion should benefit more in the long run if he sticks to it.
The Cavs will want to be rested and healthy for the playoffs, but they absolutely want home court advantage. The two teams they’ll watch are the Bulls and Spurs. Without home court I think we could manage against the other teams from the West (and potentially the Bulls too), but a healthy Spurs team would tough.
The Cavs have a very good chance to win it all this year. I wouldn’t say we should, but we certainly can. Either way, our odds probably improve next year if we are able to add pieces.