Digging Into the Cavs Tunnel
October 15, 2014LeBron James says he didn’t set pick for the wrong team
October 16, 2014Happy Thursday, ya’all. Let’s dig right in…
The Real MVP
After this season, LeBron James will assuredly have the second-most MVP award shares in NBA history. As of now, he’s only slightly behind Kareem Abudal-Jabaar, the league’s all-time point scorer. That leaves two main questions to ponder. If/when will LeBron catch up to Michael Jordan’s record? And is there anyone with a chance of beating him this year sans Kevin Durant?
LeBron’s stunning dominance can easily be displayed in his ridiculous MVP finishes. Over the last eight seasons, he has finished fifth, fourth, first, first, third, first, first and second. That’s eight straight top-five finishes and six straight top-three marks. He has 6.10 award shares, compared to Abdul-Jabaar’s 6.20 and Jordan’s 8.14. With only three more top-two finishes in his career, James should take the throne from Michael. I’d expect it within five years, given eventual regression and some merely top-five finishes.
His only consistent competitor has been Kevin Durant, who turned all of 26 years old last month. Durant himself has five straight top-five finishes to his name. He’s gone from second to fifth to second to second and then to first. He already ranks 13th all-time in MVP award shares, ahead of legends like Malone, Garnett, Olajuwon, Barkley, Nash, Jerry West and Nowitzki.
But the major news is Durant’s fractured foot that will keep him out until at least early December. With that blow, Bovada changed its MVP odds: James moved from 3/2 to 5/6 and Durant fell from 11/4 to 4/1. Durantula still ranks second, with nobody else particularly close. In fact, the odds for the next closest competitors, Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose, actually fell with James’ presumed stranglehold over the trophy. Russell Westbrook moved way up, but still nowhere close.
Unless the Cavs shockingly underperform – perhaps to 50 regular season wins or less – LeBron appears to be a lock for the MVP trophy. All he needs is health and team production. He might even regress individually a bit, and it’d still be hard for anyone to catch up. It’s all pretty insane.
‘And we’ll never be Royals’:
Well, we probably will be at some point. But it’s hard to not get a little Lorde crazy with the amazing postseason run for the Kansas City Royals. They’ve become the first team ever to begin a playoffs with eight straight victories. And here they are, back in the World Series for the first time since 1985.
My main takeaway from KC’s epic surge: Anything can happen in the postseason. Wild card teams are 21-19 in the division series. If San Francisco holds on to beat St. Louis in the National League, wild card teams will improve to 12-9 in the championship series. To me, that’s an absolutely perfect display of baseball’s October parity.
All you have to do is get in. In 2007, the Indians were one game away from matching up with the Colorado Rockies in the World Series. In 1995 and 1997, they made it all the way. All things considered, that’s not too bad for 20 years. And the franchise’s recent success, the Indians are bound to make it back in the playoffs again sometime soon … and that’s all that matters. Just get in.
To celebrate the AL Central accomplishment, here are a few selected Royals reads from around the web:
“The Kansas City Royals are America because the system that served them so well went haywire, and they did something about it. They stopped feeling bad for themselves, concocted a plan, fought back. They succeeded. They are America because their rich-poor divide grew bigger every year, their middle class withered away, the economics of their world marooned them, and they refused to use any of those things for an excuse, not anymore.” – Jeff Passan, Yahoo! Sports
“You would think that everyone from Omaha to Oklahoma City, from Dodge City to Columbia would love the man who has managed more games than any Royals manager ever, the man who guided the Royals into the playoffs after the longest postseason drought in American sports, the man who is at the helm as this team wins heart-stopping game after heart-stopping game this October. The Royals are one victory from a World Series, as impossible as those words may sound, and you would think that there must be a Heartland love affair going on with the manager of this miracle team. Well. It’s complicated.” – Joe Posnanski, NBC SportsWorld
“James Shields cradled the American League championship trophy in his hands. He gazed into the gold gleaming in the late afternoon light. After nearly three decades in the dark, the sun shined on this ballpark again. Inside a swarm of hugs and tears and joyful Royals, Shields held the hardware aloft.” – Andy McCullough, The Kansas City Star
“Somewhere in the waning moments of September, it seems clear now, the baseball gods slipped a new law into the official rule book of Major League Baseball: The Kansas City Royals were not allowed to lose.” – Tyler Kepner, The New York Times
Assorted links:
— Shameless self-promotion: I wrote at Nylon Calculus yesterday about how the 2014-15 NBA season might feature record-setting offensive production. This was also tangentially related to my Cavs Zine 5 article on whether the Cavs might have the best-ever league-adjusted offense.
— On a somewhat related note, The Cauldron’s Jim Cavan has a hilariously entertaining read about why he’s so concerned about Byron Scott’s anti-three-pointer position with the Lakers. Oh this is good.
— You know what was a fantastic idea? Polling women on Tinder for team-by-team 2014-15 NBA projections. Congratulations sir, you have won the Internet.
— I thought that Cleveland.com’s Zack Meisel did a really good job of laying out the Indians’ 2015 salary cap situation. Based on past spending, they should have around $8-10 million to play with.
— The city of Columbia, South Carolina is preparing to welcome in a new Minor League Baseball team in 2016. Two issues: 1) No confirmation on which team is moving to Columbia. 2) They need a name and thus, they’re running a Name The Team contest that could interest some folks. I always love these.
— My new collegiate allegiance, the Oregon Ducks, are wearing some nifty 1994 throwbacks for Saturday’s game against rival Washington. The reason behind the throwback? Kenny Wheaton’s famous “The Pick” in that rivalry game 20 years ago.
— ICYMI: The Browns win on Sunday was their first as a favorite over the Steelers since 1991. That absurd fact, via Football Perspective’s Chase Stuart, is absolutely incredible.
— Earlier this week, Grantland’s Bill Barnwell said the AFC North has been “wildly competitive” and “has surprisingly been football’s best division.” Man, I’m not used to this.
— Dayton Flyers kicker touchdown?? Dayton Flyers kicker touchdown!! Thank you very much, Deadspin’s Barry Petchesky. Also: William Will is a fantastic kicker name.
— Maybe it’s just me, but I think it’s pretty damn cool that Hozier, the new SNL sensation, credited The Black Keys as a huge inspiration in this article by Grantland’s Steven Hyden.
Music videos:
You may or may not know this about me, but I LOVE LOVE music videos1. Back in 2011, I attempted to post a music video on my Facebook account every day for 365 days. Part of the project was once posted to my since-extinct Tumblr page. I only made it through June-ish.
In that spirit, here are just a few of my favorite music videos from some under-the-radar bands you might not know. I only picked a few, but these are all worthwhile for a fun time.
— Architecture in Helsinki – Do The Whirlwind
— Big Data – Dangerous (Warning: This is a wee bit gory)
— Of Montreal – Of Wraith Pinned to the Mist and Other Games (Yes, this is the old Outback jingle)
— Softlightes – Heart Made of Sound
— Ted Leo & The Pharmacists – Bottled in Cork
— The New Pornographers – Moves
— Wakey!Wakey! – Light Outside
— Walk Off The Earth – Gang of Rhythm
- I also similarly have an obsession for movie trailers. [↩]
80 Comments
And raises are spending too. Contracts are not made with only the next year in mind. When the Indians extended Santana, Brantley, Kipnis, they were committing more to future payrolls.
PARK FACTORS!
Last point then I’m done: the Royals are in the WS for a multitude of reasons other then just defense. Don’t be lazy like broadcasters and keep regurgitating something everyone who watches baseball knows. How about base running namely stealing bases? How about a bullpen which has seen three guys pitch three lock down innings each game in the playoffs? How that has enabled a starting rotation that pales in comparisons to other teams including the Indians look like it’s done something. How it’s enabled James Shields to start more playoff games then anyone else on his team. How Ned Yost has pushed all the right buttons?
But again you are right, it’s just defense. HAVE A NICE DAY!
I never said it was just defense. I have said and stand by this point though: the reason the Indians are not in the playoffs is because of our horrible defense. We still have a huge hole at the third base and we HAVE TO HAVE TO HAVE TO address it this off-season. It is our biggest, most obvious weak point. No Headley? Fine. But do something.
“a starting rotation that pales in comparisons to other teams including the Indians ”
The Royals had five guys start at least 25 games with an ERA+ of at least 96 this year. That’s a damn fine rotation they’ve built. The Indians have gotten just two guys to start 25 games this year, and only Kluber had an ERA+ above 96. There’s some serious potential for the Indians rotation to be Royals-good next year, but the Royals are already there.
Actually agree with both of you. Raises are spending, but I think when people here “spending” they think “in addition to what we’ve already allocated for”. That’s always been a bad PR tactic from the Tribe and doesn’t win anybody over.
I think Lindor and Ramirez in the lineup everyday will be a huge boost to the defense. I also think the transition from Swisher to Santana at 1B helped a lot. The defense is going to be better from a lot of internal moves.
I’m ok with trying Chisenhall again at 3B. I think that’s the spot to improve if we can, but I’m not expecting any big changes. I’d normally be ok with giving Kipnis a chance to prove he can play 2B when he’s healthy, but as a college OF, I think he’ll have an easier time transition to a corner spot than Chisenhall, and playing Ramirez at 2B is probably better for the defense than him at 3B.
How about all the savings from 2011 when they spent under $50 million? We only ever talk about how high they’ve reached and not the floors. $45, $34, $41 in 2003-2005.
Santana played more 3B coming into 2013 than Kipnis has his entire life. I’ve said before, I’m open to experimenting with Kipnis at 3B in the long run, but to put your eggs in that basket is foolhardy. We’ve got a good team here. Address the major need! Try to win now! No more hope and a prayer bullshiat!
Headley was statistically the best defensive thirdbaseman in baseball last year. Chisenahll was the second worst. Over the course of a 150 games, that’s a difference of 43 runs.
How many more games do you think we win this year by preventing 43 extra runs? But keep telling yourself that there isn’t a need at third base.
I do wonder how much they’ve actually made in those years. It’s fair to note. Though I would guess that part of the 2011 cost cutting came because they lost some serious money in 2009.
Right. Fans (everywhere) want to see FA splashes. But locking up guys like Santana and Brantley takes and counts as spending.
I’m 99% sure we’re going to trot out Chiz at 3B again this year. I think it’s a dumb idea.
Maybe Kipnis can play third, maybe he can’t. I really don’t want to lose games in April and May while we see.
I was speaking to Kip’s glove overall compared to Santana. Santana couldn’t play catcher either that doesn’t mean I want Kipnis behind the plate DUH!
The whole defense was bad sure if you replace one position it will help but it’s not the answer. And to simply think by making one change and thinking it would have saved all 43 runs as you say is reaching. But clearly you are a baseball savant and have all of the answers so I wish you luck and look forward to reading more pearls of wisdom from the great baseball mind you possess.
I don’t see Kipnis moving to 3B. Ramirez is the guy that should be able to move around to wherever we have the hole in the infield. Right now I feel we can live with Chisenhall at 3B if we are that much better at the other three infield spots, which seems likely. I may want to reserve the right to change that opinion when Chisenhall’s glove starts costing us some runs though.
If not Chisenhall at 3B, that means he plays RF or is moved in a trade. I’m not expecting him to be any better defensively in RF, and I wonder what we would move him for considering the unlikelihood of a challenge trade where someone gives us a starting 3B back. I’m left reluctantly playing Chisenhall at 3B after getting some Dorn-in-spring training treatment.
Snark? Really? You don’t need a great baseball mind to realize we have a hole defensively at third base. Out of anyone, I thought you’d be all for addressing our major position of need to try to actually win something next year.
I don’t trust his bat either. If we can get something for him, I’d trade him. Never been a big fan of Chiz.
I’m also curious if Urshella is ready for the bigs yet. I don’t have much faith in that though. I think at best he may be like a Ramirez type who needs more time in the minors and can help out some once injuries demand it.
Great point!
Of course they do and while locking up players is great it’s not exactly groundbreaking. The foundation starts with drafting…it’s continued by keeping the players you draft..it’s accessorized by free agent signings and trades. The Indians until the last few years sucked at drafting but that has turned around which has led to talent being retained. The Indians can trade, all be it for lesser known untapped talent but they can’t sign free agents to save their lives. At least they are headed in the right direction. Question is how long will it take before something substantial other then saying you appeared in the playoffs once in the last 7 years with that once being a one game shutout loss at home?
I’m fine with his bat. Seems like a BABIP issue more than anything. It was still worth a 120 OPS+ this year.
I have no idea what to expect out of Urshela yet. He came out of nowhere, but you can’t ignore that line at his age. And he’s looked like a plus defender to boot. If a guy with that kind of season had a history as a decent prospect, he’d probably be looked at as a top 50 guy. But he didn’t make any top 10 (or Sickels’ 20) and was 36th in Lastoria’s rankings.
I think it comes down to what do you consider “trusting his bat”?
Is he a 120 OPS+ guy as he was in 2014 (though very hot/cold to get there)?
Or is he a 105 OPS+ guy that his career numbers suggest (1215 PA)?
I think the answer is somewhere in the middle as he is still only 26yo and will be 26 the entire 2015 regular season (Oct 4th birthday). He did so much better at keeping his ABs alive this year. He needs to learn how to lay off bad pitches (instead of just fouling them off) and his OBP numbers can stabilize, which will help him immensely (and force pitchers to give him stuff to hit).
I don’t want to give up on Lonnie yet, but I do understand those who are frustrated with him too.
Ah the ever-vague and frequently moving “something substantial”. Almost always just one step ahead of where they’re at. And a selective endpoint to boot.
No really it was full on snark with a capital s because you knew exactly what I was saying you just wanted to be cute. It’s okay though I forgive you.
I just think there is more need elsewhere given Chisenhall is under contract at a team friendly deal. Yes his defense was deplorable but like I said he wasn’t alone. I also say this last year was Chisenhall’s real first full time try and I’m willing to give him another shot. So I turn my look towards other areas of need and that’s a right handed power hitter. The open spot for this player, whoever it may be, is in the OF either LF or RF doesn’t matter because Brantley can play the other corner. I say this is the biggest need because despite whatever offensive rankings you want to tell me I know what I saw and what I saw is the following: a lineup to interdependent on fellow hitters doing well in order to succeed. A power hitter allows for slumps because with one swing he single handedly produces. Of course I understand in a perfect world a lineup works together but over 162 games and into the playoffs as we have witnessed good pitching tends to beat good hitting. 1995 is still fresh in my memory banks. But to clarify I’m not advocating for a masher a 40-50 HR guy I’d gladly take a 30 HR guy who can hit say .280-.295…is that to much to ask?
http://ak9.picdn.net/shutterstock/videos/3191083/preview/stock-footage–binary-code-wall-animation.jpg
READ BETWEEN THE LINES ROBOTO!
“I’d gladly take a 30 HR guy who can hit say .280-.295”
There were just six guys who did that last year.
And now to the personal attacks.
Yes, it is.
I think I see the issue here. Everyone is much higher on Chisenhall than I am. Both in terms of defense and offense. Fair enough.
You mean you really could read between those lines? DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAMN!
.270-.290 then?
Could be actually I’m not high on him it’s just that he’s under contract and not only do I want to see what he can do one more year but I also think he can get better with the glove. The fact that I think there are other areas of need and by getting rid of Chisenhall you create another need doesn’t help. As I said before the defense as a whole was horrible well until the last month or so. I don’t have stats but I’m sure one of you can find out how the defense ranked the last month and a half to two months. I think Ramirez instead of Asdrubal was a big part. It’s why I would like to see him stay preferably at 2b with Lindor at SS. I guess if Kipnis at 3B is scary and frankly if Chisenhall stays it wouldn’t work the next logical place would be back in the outfield. That would help with that need, well, I hope, I guess.