Justin Timberlake courtside; Jay Z and Beyonce rumored
October 24, 2014Anderson Varejao to start at center for Cavs
October 24, 2014We’ve got good news and bad news, Cavs fans. The good news: The NBA regular season is nearly upon us, and we will soon experience the joy of watching the team from our collective dreams come to life to play basketball. The bad news: There’s only a few more precious days to speculate and heap conjecture upon guesswork over what will happen this basketball season.
Even the greatest reality can be slightly underwhelming. But for now, the season is still a figment of imaginations need not be restrained by buzzkills like physics or mathematical possibilities. Sure, in the boring real season the Cavs can only win somewhere in the neighborhood of sixty games—if they have an incredible season. But now? The Cavs can win seventy-five games. No, eighty-two. Nay! THE CAVS CAN WIN ONE HUNDRED GAMES. And the team will invite me to party with them on Jay Z’s flying yacht while Kate Upton spoon feeds me a champagne-flavored milkshake after the Cavs sweep the Los Angeles Lakers1 in the NBA Finals and the Staples Center is swept into the ocean by Kobe tears. For now.
So, while it’s still time to make stuff up before the season, here are my favorite NBA preseason prop bets that are all related to the Cavaliers in one way, shape, or form.
This is the part where your reminded, “WFNY does not condone gambling on professional sports, because it’s wrong and immoral, and all these bets are strictly for recreational purposes.” Seriously, if you have disposable income, invest that stuff in a good interest-bearing CD or Nik Stauskas rookie cards. Just, you know, make sure you diversify your portfolio. Betting on sports should only serve its intended purpose: making friends and loved ones do humiliating things.
Cavaliers (-8) versus the New York Knicks on October 30
Tickets are going for the price of a black-market kidney, and that’s a bargain if you can get close to court-side.
Well, that’s the opportunity presented have with the Cavs versus the Knicks this Thursday night. I’m a man of science, an intellectual, and think Forrest Gump is overrated, but even the most callous sports fan with the most corroded heart is going to have a twinge of emotion when LeBron James makes his return to Cleveland for the Cavs opener. It’s going to be a 10/10 on the chill factor and the stadium’s going to be filled with feels. Tickets are going for the price of a black-market kidney, and that’s a bargain if you can get close to court-side.
After Carmelo Anthony’s Denver Nuggets beat the Cavs for LeBron’s debut 1.0 in Cleveland and got the best of James for the early part of his career, LeBron’s team has beaten Anthony’s in eight of the last twelve head-to-head matchups. Amar’e Stoudemire hasn’t gotten hurt yet, and the Knicks seem to play worse when they both start.2 But the trump card is that the Knicks have their own home opener in Madison Square Garden against the Bulls the preceding night, the most exhausting defense in the league to face. There’s simply no way for the Knicks to bring that energy two nights in a row. Plus, K-Dot’s doing the pre-game concert/pep rally and sporting Cleveland gear; because rappers are front runners.3
David Blatt +550 for Coach of the Year
Even though San Antonio Spurs’ coach Gregg Popovich should probably win this award until he either retires or dies, voters for these postseason awards like to select fresh blood and storylines as much as possible. This phenomenon can only be rationalized by voters becoming bored with picking the same person, even when that person is Michael Jordan and that person is clearly the best choice. ((There are several debatable examples of this “Weary Voter” syndrome—such as the 2004-2005 Steve Nash MVP season due to people wanting to not vote for Shaquille O’Neal—but the most notable examples are the 1992-1993 Charles Barkley MVP season and the 1996-1997 Karl Malone MVP season. In both seasons, Michael Jordan was clearly the Most Valuable Player by any definition. But why be right, when you can pick someone new?)) I understand—it feels new and exciting. This is especially true for Coach of the Year, where the voters have selected a first-time coach of the year forty-three of a possible fifty-two times.4 Four coaches have won it twice, and four have won it three times, and every other winner is new.
So, voters like fresh faces. Also, no one has ever won consecutive Coach of the Year awards in the NBA. It’s never happened. Since Popovich won it last year, he’s disqualified this year. Clippers coach Doc Rivers, Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau, and Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle are all excellent coaches, but they’ve all won it before. So, they’ll probably need an incredible regular season to win the award. The track record is that someone who will it that is new and not a repeat. Jeff Hornacek did a stellar job with the Suns last year, but they missed the playoffs and he’s now going to be a victim of his own good job by raising expectations.
Steve Kerr is a tempting selection, but if you have +550 odds for Cleveland Cavaliers coach David Blatt, I think he’s a great bet. He’s a newcomer whose team is probably going to win over fifty games. He does things that will feel strange and oddly exciting to Cavs fans, like move the ball on offense and create spacing for his players. Nearly half the coaches in the league are borderline incompetent. Plus, there might be a 10% chance that Blatt’s actually a basketball genius and a top five coach with a loaded roster. So take Blatt. While you’re at, take Oklahoma City’s Scotty Brooks or Milwaukee’s Jason Kidd to be worst coach of the year.
Blake Griffin +1200 to win MVP
How could I go against King James for MVP? He still is the best basketball player in the known universe, after all. The short answer: LeBron James doesn’t care.
LeBron James has won four regular season MVPs in the NBA now. He has plenty of seasons to catch anyone in front of him. He’s focused on winning an NBA title. While I don’t think the Cavs will cruise to a number one seed with ease, it’s conceivable they could have it firmly in hand come March, allowing James to rest.
Furthermore, because LeBron is surrounded by a bonanza of offensive talent, and someone like Shawn Marion to give him rest defensively, I expect his numbers to be slightly less spectacular. Instead of his numbers being stupefyingly good5, they’ll be merely stunningly good. Which all indications are that he is more than content to do. Plus his odds are currently at -110, meaning that a hypothetical wager would cost $110 to win $100.
Which leaves room for someone else at the top. Last year’s MVP Kevin Durant is dealing with an injury that will apparently sideline him until December. Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook is enticing because he’ll have to cover for Durant at the beginning of the season. But Westbrook is like the Kanye West of basketball, a talent powerhouse whose hubris frees him to do things that are both spectacular and crazy stupid, and who also makes odd fashion choices.
I like Blake Griffin to win MVP. Kyrie Irving at +60000 is intriguing (a successful bet would pay off sixty times the original wager amount) but there are too many Cavs that are going to be carrying the offensive load, especially in the fourth quarter. Blake has improved every year, and his jumper continues to get better. He hits the bank-in jumper like a student of San Antonio Spurs legend Tim Duncan, and both his average field goal attempt distance and true shooting percentage have increased every year. With the Cavs much improved as a team, that leaves room for a new individual MVP, and last year’s third place finisher Blake Griffin is as good a choice as any.
Cavs over 58.5 wins
A 58.5-win total is a bonkers number for a preseason over/under. It’s almost heresy to take this over. But, forced to make a choice, I tentatively think the Cavs will win fifty-nine games or more this regular season. Outside of the Cavaliers, there are only a handful of legitimately good teams in the Eastern Conference, a gaggle of average ones, and some downright basketball atrocities.
I’m not predicting the Cavs are going to dance their way through the regular season and tap dance their way to a championship. There are serious questions that have been well-publicized and there will be growing pains. But they are loaded offensively and will have an almost frenzied home court advantage. They will be offensively devastating, and I think there will be some stretches in the dead of winter where they will rip off lengthy win streaks. Taking an over on a 58.5 win total seems unthinkable, but then you just need to recall that the Cavs won over 60 games in the 2008 and 2009 regular seasons, including a 2008-2009 season that resulted in 66 wins despite having Mike Brown as head coach and Mo Williams, Delonte West, and Daniel Gibson as top five minute getters.6
Over 1.5 Fights Started by Dion Waiters
The veteran presence in the locker room is too strong for more than one swirling rumor about fisticuffs in the Cavs own locker room this year. But I can almost guarantee that the Cavs’ version of Scrappy-Doo will bark at the wrong person on an opposing team on a number of occasions, causing some of the bigger Cleveland Cavaliers to step in and neutralize the situation.
Over 50 Times Cavaliers Announcers Fred McLeod and Austin Carr Get Lost in Each Other’s Eyes
Over over OVER!!! Things are going to be intense and emotional this season, so we’re bound to have a few passionate make-out sessions I’ve no doubt. There’s just so much love at that table. Just look out for the table next to them—it’s a doozy.
Over 1,000,000 Someone Catches Me Drooling on Myself While Watching the Cavs on the Fast Break
Way over. Need I say more?
- Of course the Lakers are going to suck. But beating the Lakers would still be the most satisfying team to beat in the Finals, as long as Miami remains in the Eastern Conference. [↩]
- The win-loss record backs this up, but need to look it up. [↩]
- For a lot of the same reasons, it would be hard to take the Cavs +3 against the Bulls the next night in Chicago. [↩]
- According to basketballreference.com, which only shows COY being awarded back to the ’62-’63 season. Byron Scott has won COY, but Jerry Sloan hasn’t. [↩]
- Yes, stuperfyingly. [↩]
- With LeBron James and Anderson Varejao. [↩]
13 Comments
Unretire, just for a season or two…
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rl-LT8IrxXw/TGWjDRzjZBI/AAAAAAAAAK4/yA8k_RPJ74A/s1600/joe+tait.jpg
“He does things that will feel strange and oddly exciting to Cavs fans, like moving the ball on offense and creating space for players.”
Going from Mike Brown to David Blatt is like going to from Rosie O’Donnell to Kate Upton. The difference is so significant that it isn’t really even the same thing. LeBron aside, I’m so excited to have an offense that isn’t “hey Kyrie go iso while everyone watches.” Or the same thing with Waiters. Competent head coaches who know things about offense are fun.
And if anybody deserves to be there and calling the action IF (lest I jinx us) we win it all, it’s him.
http://i.imgur.com/ye5nOg8.gif
Blatt will only win coach of the year if the Cavs either score an ungodly amount of points in the first three quarters every night before resting, or if they play above average defense. (And even then he might not.) Anything less will be chalked up to Lebron+Love+Kyrie.
Lebron won’t win the MVP for all the reasons you state, but I am pumped to see the most efficient stat lines in NBA history. It would not shock me to see LBJ put up lines like 9-14/6-8/2-5 26pts 6reb 6ast in like 30 minutes a game while playing stout defense.
Not sure I’m feeling the ‘over’ on the games won. I HOPE they win 60-plus, but something tells me that 56 or 57 could win the east and allow LeBron et al to sit a few games.
Shamstradamus originally predicted 62-20 but has since amended season record to 60-22! Go in peace.
Barkley was 26pts, 12 rebounds, and 5+ assists in his MVP year.
He carried the Suns to a 62-20 record. 62 WINS (9 more than the year before)! RIchard Dumas and Mark West were starters on that squad.
Chicago went 57-25 that season, losing 15 more games than the year before. Jordan went 33/6/5, but he had Scottie, Horace, BJ Armstron, Cartwright, and others.
Barkley deserved it that season.
I can see an even stranger line from LeBron. I know this has only been pre-season but LeBron has looked happy to let the others carry the load. I could see him ending up around 23 pts, 5 reb, 5 assists in 29 minutes.
60 wins on the nose, says I. But since Shamrock already said that, I’ll go with 59-23.
yeah, no way Blatt wins COY. Cavs are supposed to be a 60+ game winner just by the players who signed. Unless they challenge Michael’s win record (and they won’t), then a ton of Blatt’s usefulness will be lost to the general media and some team that is unexpectedly good will have a coach that wins the award.
“… but LeBron has looked happy to let the others carry the load.”
I noticed that too, which is why I was thinking somewhere between 18 – 20 ppg. for LeBron in 29 – 30 minutes. This is assuming Dion Waiters steps up his game. Of course i’m thinking more along the lines of the original Cavs big 3.. err 4 from the late 80s.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CLE/1989.html
Scotty Brooks is far from the worst coach in the league (not the best either). He had Durant, Westbrook and Harden working together. He has been willing to hire good assistants away from other teams and let them actually do work.