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November 9, 2014NFL insider Jason La Canfora reports today that while the Browns haven’t discussed a contract recently, Brian Hoyer will be thinking about Andy Dalton’s contract if and when talks resume.
The Cleveland native would love to stay there, all things being equal, but rather than sign a deal for backup money before the season, when he was still coming back from a season-ending ACL injury, he chose to gamble on himself, and it has proven to be sage thus far.
And if Brian Hoyer plays out this season as he has and wants Andy Dalton money, he’ll have earned it. Plus, as I’m going to show you it’s kind of a win-win for the Browns too.
There’s been a lot of talk about Andy Dalton’s contract and it drew some initial scorn around the league because the continued, fanciful way that these NFL deals are reported.
“ANDY DALTON GOT SIX YEARS AND $115 MILLION DOLLARS!!!” That’s almost $20 million per season!
Not really. Once all the details came out, we all realized that Andy Dalton’s contract was essentially a balloon payment of $17.5 million this year with a cap hit of just over $9 million in each of the first two years of the deal. Assuming the Bengals keep him for the second year of the deal, Dalton will have made put just about $25 million in his pocket before taxes for two seasons’ work. The Bengals will have had a starting quarterback for $12.5 million per season. Now you may not like Dalton, but if you do think he’s at least an NFL starter of any quality, that’s just not that much money.
By year three, Dalton’s salary boosts to $10.5 million and all of a sudden the Bengals have to make a decision about whether he’s their future or not. If they keep him, it takes a cap hit of $13 million, but if they cut him, they can save $6 million in cap space. Sure they have to take some “dead money” in the form of the accelerated accounting of the $12 million signing bonus, but it’s no big deal and saves the Brown family some actual cash.
The point being that all of a sudden, Andy Dalton didn’t make $115 million. He essentially was paid $25 million for two years and then the Bengals built in a decision point as to whether he was worth keeping thereafter.
Which brings us back to Brian Hoyer. I think Andy Dalton’s contract is a perfect formula for Brian Hoyer and the Browns. If Hoyer can guarantee himself $17 million or something slightly more and the contract looks like a two-year deal for $25-30 million, I’m just fine with that. Starting NFL quarterbacks cost tons of money, and if the Browns and Hoyer can share in the flexibility of being able to come to another decision point after the second year of the deal, then it’s kind of perfect for everyone, except maybe Johnny Manziel.
This is also why I’m fine if the Browns end up franchising Brian Hoyer for a year. They pay him somewhere around $16+ million guaranteed, which was the franchise tag value for 2014, and everyone wins. The Browns pay Hoyer a life-changing amount of money for just one year of work. They still have the flexibility to either get Hoyer on a long-term deal or plan for Johnny Manziel to take the reigns after his second year in the league.
This is why I refuse to think that the Browns have “problems” with their quarterback situation. There’s some uncertainty for sure as we see how all the pieces fit, but it’s far from a problem. The Browns have two guys they like and maybe want. On top of that, they have the cap flexibility to keep them both for at least another year and probably longer.
Whether or not this would lead to Johnny Manziel demanding a trade is anyone’s guess. I just know you can only control what you can control. The Browns have options and some advantages in the NFL’s contract system.
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There’s another aspect to this: The Browns offense, both coach and players, supports Hoyer. Mostly because of what he’s managed to do on the field, but also because he’s staying completely professional about it.
The story if we end up paying him is “Play within the system, work your butt off, lead the team, get rewarded”. The story if we let him walk is “Play within the system, work your butt off, and you’re basically just auditioning for another team”, which causes players to pad their personal stats more than play to win the game (e.g. making fantastic blocks no longer counts for much). There are all sorts of signs that the current Browns team believes in itself and has gelled in a way that Romeo Crennell’s Browns never did: Hoyer isn’t the cause of all that (veterans like Mack and Thomas help a lot in that department), but it sure helps.
I like the team option ideas. And I have no problem letting JFF hold a clipboard and learn everything he can from Hoyer. If Hoyer were playing consistently badly, or if JFF had done much better than Hoyer when he was on the field, then I’d be thinking differently about this.
once hoyer’s gotten us to the playoffs he is in the ryan category for sure. we don’t set the market at that point so it doesn’t much matter what we or farmer think is fair. fair is what the market says it is.
ironically given the title of this post, i’d expect the bengals to jump all over hoyer if he gets to free agency. why the hell not as theyre only into dalton for 17M and would be pay a 4M roster bonus for his below average qb-ing next year.
wake up: joe linta is joe flacco’s agent. he’s been to this rodeo before. if hoyer plays well the browns will pay through the nose to keep him because someone else will.
it’s silly to try to adhere to some construct of what fair is. kaepernick gets twice the gtd dollars of brady; cutler is 3x more than luck. fair is irrelevant. focus on the market; that’s what’s real.
it depends on how he gets us there. if we continue to win games like the TB and Oakland game, then he’s getting Dalton money at best. if he looks like the Pitt & Cinci game, then he can get more.
and, yes, I realize that is despite the fact that he plays to the talent around him (our running game is basically what determines how well he plays at this point), but that’s just how it’ll likely play out.
“…if hoyer plays well the browns will pay through the nose to keep him because someone else will.”
Exactly: someone else will. Farmer and the Browns won’t pay through the nose to keep him. They’ll tag him and trade him, walk away with picks and move on with Manziel. Linta can get another team to pay through the nose, Hoyer can go somewhere where he has a much weaker structure around him and become the worst case scenario. Hoyer is solid but he’s thriving as much or more because of the situations Shanahan is putting him in than on his ability to put the team on his shoulders and carry them home.
Sure, but if he signs with another team . . .
I’m actually going the other way. It’s harder to replace a QB, and I’m a Hoyer believer. I’d much rather they get him under contract and then consider Manziel as trade bait. I don’t think his game translates to the NFL, regardless of what Wilson did in Seattle. Plus, he’s done this without weapons at his disposal. Give him some Alex Smith money and see if he takes it.
There are a lot of key players coming up. The Browns have two first-round picks, but Gipson and Sheard should remain on the team. Getting Hoyer under contract would free the franchise tag for one of them if negotiations fail.
Columns like this show the incompetence of the media as a whole. The Browns are in an enviable position. They currently have a mediocre “bridge” QB at the helm. If they can’t sign him for what THEY want to sign him for, they have a QB waiting in the wings, learning, whom they drafted and probably feel will not be any worse than the current starter and has more upside.