AJ Price returns to the Cavs; team waives Will Cherry
November 30, 2014
Welcome to the Johnny Manziel Era, Cleveland: While We’re Waiting…
December 1, 2014The biggest storyline from the Cleveland Browns 26-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills Sunday was Brian Hoyer getting the hook in favor of Johnny Manziel. Hoyer struggled mightily in Buffalo, continuing a worrisome downward trend. In the past four games, he has completed 53 percent of his passes (76-of-143) and thrown just one touchdown against six interceptions. Manziel took over quarterbacking duties in the fourth quarter, completing 5-of-8 passes and running for a 10-yard touchdown.
The Browns have not yet declared their Week 14 starter, but if Manziel takes over, Hoyer could lose a lot more than playing time. Per ESPN’s Adam Kaplan:
Hoyer will earn an additional $2.05 million this season if he handles at least 70 percent of the offensive snaps, a league source told ESPN.
Through the Browns game against Atlanta, Hoyer handled 759 of the Browns’ 763 offensive snaps (99.5%), with Manziel getting the others in cameo appearances.1 By my count, Hoyer handled 53 of 66 snaps against Buffalo, with Manziel getting the final 13. This brings Hoyer to 812 of 829 snaps, which is still a gigantic 97.9 percent.
The Browns have averaged just under 67 offensive plays per game this season.2 If Manziel is the new starter and takes every snap in each of the last four games, and we assume 67 snaps per contest, that would bring Hoyer down to 74 percent (812-of-1097), still plenty good enough to hit his bonus.
The question, then, is what would have to happen for Hoyer to miss out on that extra loot?
For starters, Hoyer couldn’t play another down. Then, the Browns would have to run an up-tempo attack — like, super up-tempo, to the tune of exactly 83 plays per game. Playing the final four games at that pace would bring the Browns to 1,161 offensive snaps. If that turned out to be the total, and Hoyer didn’t handle one of them, he would be left with a snap percentage of 69.9, which would surely lead to a heated conversation about the merits of rounding numbers.
This is highly improbable, as 83 is a huge number. The notoriously speedy Philadelphia Eagles average 73 per game, but they did get up to 87 in their 43-24 win over the Titans. It would take a seismic shift for the Browns to add fifteen-plus offensive plays to every contest, but crazier things have happened. Maybe the defense forces a ton of turnovers and Johnny leads a bunch of long, no-huddle drives? Believeland!
Now, going this route would likely kill any chance of Hoyer re-signing in the offseason, unless he views the loss of a job and $2 million more positively than you and me. But if Manziel is going to be QB1 anyway, there’s little sense in keeping Hoyer around, unless he’s willing to play the role of back-up quarterback/player-coach.
In any event, there will be many tea leaves to read if No. 2 becomes QB1.
- Per SportingCharts.com. [↩]
- Per TeamRankings.com. [↩]
9 Comments
I SWEAR I’m not trying to start a huge debate or be disrespectful in anyway, but I only say this in light of the headline conversation that was had last week – this headline is pretty misleading. If I were to just read the headline and then not the article, I would assume Hoyer would lose that bonus if Manziel merely starts. Not only does Manziel technically not even need to start, but the headline just makes the scenario seem a LOT more likely than it actually is.
Right. But the headline “Highly Improbable Hoyer Loses Bonus” doesn’t draw much interest, even if that’s what Will’s story actually states and carefully fleshes out.
Aha! Now we know why Hoyer refuses to convert on 1st and 2nd downs! Sandbagger.
It all makes sense now!
I’ve heard that in MLB, teams are usually generous for players who barely miss these types of incentives. Teams want to stay on good terms with their players, free agents, and the PA. Is saving $2M really worth a bad reputation that would result in FAs being unwilling to negotiate these types of deals in the future?
Of course, I guess it ultimately depends on the size of the bonus, how close the player came to achieving it, etc. Point being: I have to imagine Hoyer will get his money.
Yes, this in the 2nd week in a row with a very misleading WFNY headline. You guys are better than your clickbait counterparts out there. Don’t stoop to the pack.
Sunday the defense stepped up and played some inspired ball when you consider all the injuries we are playing with. Hoyer and the offense, including the run game, was just fine until our newest O.C. Nick McDonald got injured. I watched Ryan Seymour come in for the first time to take over at Center. He did in his first time out better than when they moved Greco to Center and played McQuistan at his O.G. spot.
Even with Seymour playing at a legit level, that’s when the run game stalled. When the run game stalls, Hoyer is in trouble. John Manziel can help us win as long as he doesn’t get too nervous and the play calling is called to his strengths. It would be fun to watch the future of the Browns playing a top team like the Colts at home. This will be a quick way to get an idea how well Manziel may play in the coming years.
Having Manziel on the field after McDonald goes back to Center, or Mack, and with Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon and Crow and West all out there at the same time will cause defenses headaches for years to come. The threat of Manziel running will make defensive linemen hesitate and that can only help with the offensive plays. Manziel must take what they give him and not turn the ball over.
Lets start the future today. It`s time for Manziel.
I don’t see any teams clamoring for his services in the off season unless he somehow magically turned things around (which sadly I don’t see happening). However, I can see him up the commentator booth once this football thing runs it’s course. Maybe he should sign on as a back up for another 1-2 years and then start applying for Kosar’s old job. Local guy, great storyline, great football smarts. There are worse fates for a Browns QB (insert Tyler Thigpen joke here).
Given all of the good will that Hoyer has brought to the Browns (on the cheap), I could not for the life of me see them refusing to pay him, even if he was at 65% of the snaps. Like you said, $2 million is a drop in the bucket, especially for 9 wins (fairly or unfairly attributed to Hoyer).