Lessons from the Road for Cleveland State
December 1, 2014Is Carlos Santana Cleveland’s Best Twitter Account?
December 1, 2014A divided fan base became all that much more divided Sunday as the Cleveland Browns lost miserably to the Buffalo Bills. This week, as the Browns face a must-win game against the Indianapolis Colts, the fans will smell blood regardless of who Mike Pettine chooses to start at quarterback. And to think this is going to happen in a week where the Browns offense really has a chance to get back on track, it’s all the more frustrating. The Indianapolis Colts are a good team with a great quarterback, but they’re the eleventh worst in terms of stopping the run. Despite how miserably he’s been playing, Brian Hoyer has a real chance to re-establish himself in the next two weeks and most importantly put the Browns in the win column. I know it might not be popular to say right now, but I think the proper decision is to start Brian Hoyer against Indianapolis this week.
This morning on NewsNet5’s Dawgs on the Run, Andy Baskin kept saying this felt like “same old Browns,” and I can’t disagree. Here we are with a 7-5 Cleveland Browns record, on the outside looking in in terms of playoffs, but still with a chance, and the Browns are now embroiled in a quarterback controversy. It probably isn’t the “same old Browns,” but this whole thing is directly out of the playbook of a dysfunctional organization. Starting Brian Hoyer and then inserting Johnny Manziel in the game when the Browns had about 0.02 win probability on the road in Buffalo is pretty dumb. Even after Manziel’s 80-yard scoring drive and a tripling of the win probability, the Browns only had a 0.06. So, what, exactly did the Browns accomplish by putting Manziel in?
I’m a huge Johnny Manziel fan. I expect there to be a point where he surpasses Brian Hoyer as the best option to start. Just not this year.
Still, these aren’t great defenses of Brian Hoyer. He has played miserably for at least three weeks now in a stretch against the last batch of winnable games. The Browns are staring down Indianapolis and Cincinnati, before finishing up the year on the road against Carolina and Baltimore. Those four games never looked like the cake in the Browns’ schedule. And when given the chance to eat cake, Brian Hoyer not only dropped it on the floor, but also spilled his milk in performances against Houston, Atlanta and Buffalo.
Even in the win against Atlanta on the road, you’ll see Pro Football Focus was… ahem… not impressed.
I’ve been talking a lot this year about styles and matchups. It’s no wonder that the Browns lost to teams like Buffalo, who are one of the best teams in the league against the run. Houston isn’t good against the run, but they’re near the top of the league in terms of pass rush. I get why the Browns’ offense struggled against those teams. The bad matchup for the Browns this weekend against the Colts, however, isn’t due to their offense facing the Colts defense. The Browns offense should be able to run the ball and get the play-action working. They should be able to exploit D’Qwell Jackson in coverage over the middle. Yes, the Colts score a lot of points – 31.8 per game – but they also give up points to the tune of 23.6 per game.
The Browns are about a field goal underdog at home against the Colts and that makes sense, but I think it’s even worse than that now. The Browns fans might have been extra juiced for this matchup with the number of former Browns now playing for the Colts. D’Qwell Jackson is their starting linebacker, as I said, but they also have Trent Richardson, Mike Adams at safety and who can forget Josh Cribbs returning kicks and punts? Forget all that now.
Browns fans will be too busy staking their claim in the Hoyer vs. Manziel battle to be able to focus on the Browns vs. Colts one that will be unfolding before them. And for what? So that the Browns could see Johnny Manziel play two series in Buffalo after the game was out of reach? Say what you want about this not being “same old Browns,” but I have a tough time arguing with Andy Baskin when he says it smells like it.
All that said, it would be easier to start Johnny Manziel in a lot of ways. He’s the new guy who Browns fans haven’t seen. He’s unlikely to get booed and have people viscerally hoping he gets replaced if he gets the nod against the Colts. And maybe Johnny Manziel does give the Browns their best chance to win because he’s ready after watching for more than half of his rookie year. So, why would I still choose Hoyer for the Colts game?
I don’t know as much as the coaches do, of course, but I’m guessing Brian Hoyer is still your best bet in terms of taking advantage of matchups. I’m a huge Johnny Manziel fan and I’ve stated time and again that I expect there to be a point where he surpasses Hoyer as the best option to start. Just not this year.
I’m guessing Brian Hoyer is still more prepared to make pre-snap reads to take advantage of a linebacker in coverage. I would assume Hoyer is still the best guy to work with the Browns’ inexperienced center and two rookie running backs in getting plays set up and avoiding procedural penalties. I would guess Brian Hoyer still has the support of his teammates and I’d like to see how Hoyer plays knowing this will be his final shot to lead them if he struggles. I know what kind of playmaking ability Manziel has and I love how it projects, but I’d still give Brian Hoyer this last chance. I’d do it because this Colts game is also the Browns’ last chance at any kind of playoff berth and even as I find it to be a long-shot, I’d go with Brian Hoyer this week.
71 Comments
you know, I deleted 2 comments about that. (What is it about that word that makes young people’s heads figuratively split open and the marbles roll out?)
I can’t really think of any reason to start Hoyer at this point, but I could see it happening if the coaches still feel a comfort level with him. But I think that would be a mistake for the following reasons;
1) Hoyer’s been terrible recently and probably doesn’t give us the best chance to win this season.
2) Manziel is more skilled in every facet except for experience and the ability to read defenses. His skillset probably makes up the difference and then some, and he’ll improve more rapidly by playing.
3) The future is now and Hoyer is not part of it. He will likely see a better opportunity to start elsewhere next season. That being said, if accepts a backup role, it would be great to keep him.
4) We probably have to win out to get a spot in the playoffs, mainly because we lose almost every tie breaker that exists among about a half dozen wild card hopefuls and also within our division. Unfortunately, this team has been decimated by injuries and has little chance of reaching the playoffs. The odds of getting there with either an inconsistent Hoyer or a raw Manziel are probably slim to none. At least with Manziel we’re making progress towards a better future.
Yesterday’s benching was the crossing of the Rubicon–barring injury, John Pigskin has to be the guy from here on out. Camp and preseason showed us how Hoyer performed when the starting position was up in the air and the golden boy was a legit threat for the job: he pressed, and it led to some pretty ugly performances. Once he was assured of the top spot, he settled down and played well for the most part. This benching takes us back to that position of uncertainty. So stick with the rookie, see if he’s got anything worth committing to for next season (or worth other teams committing a draft pick or two to take him off our hands at least) and accept the inevitable growing pains. Given the strength of the AFC, the playoffs aren’t happening this season anyway.
can i see the win probability numbers prior to 3rd/10 sack and prior the last 3Q int?
there’s blame all over the place (cundiff miss, west fumble 6, crowell asleep on that pivotal sack, injured center and tight end),, but hoyer has not been sharp for some time. of course he was pressing with his final pick, but he did play a part in being the circumstance where he needed to press. not to mention that manziel ran a crisp offense while in. i’m wanting to see more.
based on what he’s been saying the past couple of days, someone might want to tell him to go radio silent for awhile. Love the fire, but it’s not helping either.
Disagreeing, but not arguing. Will be entertaining when it’s Manziel’s time. But including the preseason. Has JF even looked for a secondary receiver yet? If it’s Gordon or run, Ds are gonna game plan for that easily. The offense will be ugly and he’ll get killed.
They’re not winning 11 anyway, which is what I think will be needed to make the playoffs. Let him keep learning the offense from the sideline.
I thought long and thoroughly before I said anything. After all, maybe there is a way to literally blow one’s “mind,” the mind being something technically different than the brain or the head. Perhaps these youngsters know something we don’t?
Nah. They just need to remove themselves from the lawn. Figuratively.
If playing Hoyer is situational based on our opponent, then I feel like you’re admitting it’s inevitable that Hoyer’s not the answer.
Like it or not, the Browns have a rookie QB we know nothing about, a veteran QB who is going to ask for $40-60M in two months, and two first round draft picks next year. There are a lot of questions that need answered and the only one we’ve seemed to address so far is Hoyer isn’t quite as good as his record shows.
In response to the article, the browns should not start brian hoyer next Sunday.
The mere mention of Hoyer at this point makes this article moot, he is done except for being a backup. What gets lost in his performance the last 3 weeks is not only the interceptions but his inability to be even close on fairly simple passes, hence his low completion percentage. His confidence is shot and once that seeps into the brain, like the yips in golf, it is over. The Browns MUST find out what they have in Manzeil regardless and if we could put RG III into into the mix for a 4th or 5th rounder, and team him back up with his original offensive coordinator, why not? The more competition we have at QB the better until someone shows us he deserves our support for the next 10 years!
By young people… do you mean people who have been speaking English since the early 1900s? Seeing as that is when the usage of the word began to change. People who take so much delight in pointing out others mistakes literally make me sick.
For what its worth I keep seeing comments that Gordon ran the wrong route and its not true. The Bills had two deep safeties. If Gordon had tried to split the safeties he would have brought the ball within reach of the second safety who probably would have picked it off. Instead he cut it outside and was wide open with only one safety to beat. Hoyer through the ball in the middle of the field instead of on Gordon’s outside shoulder. Gordon read the field better than Hoyer.
What about Manziel’s first series led you to believe that it’s “Gordon or run”? He only targeted Gordon once, and also completed passes to Austin and Dray (and targeted Benjamin on his only incompletion).
I would literally like to see evidence supporting your assertion that people have used this word idiotically since the early 1900s.
Finally…Someone who also recognized that the problem was Hoyer who should have thrown a back shoulder pass when Gordon split the safeties…..The great QB’s murder defenses with that throw….Hoyer completely misread it…
Fair point. With Manziel, it’s look to his first option, then bail, even if the pocket is still holding up. Stack the line. Read his eyes and confuse him with who you send on blitzes.
There may be some wisdom in ignoring Hoyer’s proven ability to lead late comebacks long enough to get Manziel’s first season ending injury out of the way.
I don’t hate on Manziel, but I do believe putting him in right now = waving the white flag. Hoyer has been awful, but there’s more of a chance for success with him right now IMO.
The more important point to make here is that my head and brain are still intact, so everything is ok
That is a huge relief. Literally. We need more comments from that brain.
My apologies. You are correct. It was not the early 1900s. It was literally long before that.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4988053
That’s literally fascinating, and I literally appreciate it (and never claimed that you were wrong). Still, as noted in that article, it’s literally a silly usage of the word, and I literally will not stop pointing that out in good fun.
With all due respect, why do you see our running game getting back on track? We are on starting Center number what in Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme? I frankly see little hope that a 4th string center is going to start dominating in this. Our run will be suspect, pedestrian at best.
A less than stellar run means we are going to have to rely on our Quarterback to make things happen. There is a much more important statistic than whether Manziel gave a huge advantage in the 4th in Buffalo. In the past 47 possessions Brian Hoyer has thrown for exactly 1 TD. He most emphatically isn’t making things happen. Hoyer’s early successes came off of play action passes with significant YAC for big plays. When he’s truly gone deep the usual result is a wideout that has to slow down or even stop until the ball flutters to them. If defenders take away the running game, they can pull their coverage up closer because there is no real deep threat. Hoyer only had a few tricks and the opponents have plenty of tape on those.
Manziel is different. While benching Hoyer might close part of Shanahan’s playbook, Johnny opens up other parts that are dusty from lack of use. He has the arm talent to take advantage of Gordon & Benjamin’s speed down the field. This automatically unstacks the box for Crowell, and loosens up interior coverage for Hawkins and whoever we have left at TE. Add in Manziel’s ability extend outside the pocket, and defenders have to defend both deeper and wider than with Hoyer.
Manziel’s TD is a perfect example. We’ve seen Hoyer at the 10. He throws slightly off target jump balls into the back of the end zone into coverage. Johnny saw a different option, one that Hoyer cannot utilize. Even the threat of him scrambling is a problem. The longer Manziel extends behind the line, the longer DBs have to try and cover Josh and Hawk without grabbing in this new no-touchy NFL.
Johnny Manziel is not going to be Otto Graham 2.0 out of the gate. He’ll do things that make you and me both scream. He’ll do things that’ll make Shanahan scream himself horse. What he won’t do is continuously waste turnovers that his defense gives him as presents. He might only give us a 50/50 shot at the playoffs, if we’re being generous. However, I can’t honestly see Hoyer giving us any.