Has Kyrie Irving finally taken that next step?
December 2, 2014Splinters from the Bench: Analyzing what ails Cavs second squad
December 2, 2014There comes a point in time when you know who someone is. Brian Hoyer has reached his ceiling. Recently on Twitter, Ben Cox from Waiting For Next Year has been using the hashtag #PeakCavs to note the highlights of a crazy Cavaliers season. The days of #PeakHoyer and the Browns leading the division seem long gone. And now, the quarterback, who earlier this season led the Cleveland to dominating wins over the rival Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals, is now on the brink of losing his job to Johnny Manziel and the mystique surrounding the Texas A&M Heisman Trophy winner.
On Monday, WFNY’ Craig Lyndall argued that Brian Hoyer deserves to start next week in what would likely be a career-defining game against the Indianapolis Colts. I totally disagree with the conclusion drawn, but he makes some good points regarding the looming quarterback decision. He mentions that Hoyer would likely be more prepared to make pre-snap reads and avoid procedural mistakes with an all-rookie backfield and inexperienced center. Also, the Colts lackluster defense provides a great match-up for a quarterback looking to get back on track.
Given the declining play of Brian Hoyer and the Browns offense, why continue starting him?
Throughout the season, despite the winning record, I have remained skeptical of Brian Hoyer’s performance. After the Steelers win, I received backlash for expressing doubt about Hoyer’s long-term viability and after the next week’s lost to Jacksonville, I wrote about how he will likely “regress to the mean” of being the quarterback everyone thought he was: An average NFL quarterback. The point of this is to say that despite accruing a winning record over the past two season, much has been due to the success of other around him. This decline was foreseeable and predictable. In the last three games, we have seen the worst of Hoyer. He has thrown the ball extremely inaccurately which has led to several interceptions in key moments and has simply not put points on the board.
Given the declining play of Hoyer and the Browns offense, why continue starting him? Not since 2007 have the Browns had a quarterback with a strong winning record, so undermining his win-loss total and replacing him with a relative unknown in Johnny Manziel seems inconceivable. But, separating this team success with individual play level is imperative. Cleveland’s Hoyer-led offense played well enough to win games early in the season due to a lack of turnovers and a balanced run-pass pass attack, but has fallen off as of late. Most people are in agreement that Manziel will eventually earn an opportunity to start. But many, like Craig, want to continue pushing his debut further back. To me, this makes no sense. Here is a chart Craig cited showcasing Pro Football Focus’s grades from Hoyer over the past three games.
As you can see, Hoyer was a complete abomination who be a strong net negative in each game. Earlier in the season, when the team was winning games, he was not a net positive but a neutral player. In other words, at Hoyer’s best, he is an average quarterback who can win games in the right situation. I understand that he is a quarterback with a winning record, but must the Browns settle for someone like Hoyer when they have Manziel in the wings?
The argument for starting Hoyer over Manziel has always been and remains that Hoyer is a better quarterback right now and can win more games this season than the rookie. But, it is sometimes hard to separate a quarterback who wins games from a quarterback who is on a winning team which is what I feel the issue is with Hoyer, this season. He played well in a couple games, notably in the big win against the Steelers, but his good games are out-weighed by a few the porous performances, notably against Houston, Atlanta, and Buffalo.
To me, the argument that Hoyer gives the Browns a better chance to win the Manziel no longer makes sense. If you look only at the results of games, he seems to be a solid option. But, we know he is an avrage to slightly below average starting quarterback who will not be able to win games by making plays himself. Manziel gives the offense an entirely different look, as we saw in the scoring drive he managed at the end of the Bills game. With a porous running game, as of late, he gives the defense another player in the backfield to key on which will open up lanes in the running game and underneath routes in the passing game. Sure, he is as unknown of a commodity as any recent first round quarterback, but we do know he is super-talented and simply different from nearly every other starting quarterback in the league. The Colts possess just one drive worth of game film on Manziel which would give the Browns an immediate advantage. If Hoyer starts, they know to pack the box, stop the run, and to make the quarterback beat you. Manziel’s running ability would give offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan a unique weapon he has not had since coaching Robert Griffin III in Washington.
Looking at this decision from a bigger picture, Hoyer becomes a free agent in the off-season. Therefore, it is in the Browns best interest to find out whether Manziel is ready to be an NFL quarterback before the team must decide to pay Hoyer starting quarterback money to stay at least one more season. If Manziel plays well in Hoyer’s absence, the Browns may be able to let the Michigan State graduate leave, giving the reigns to Manziel. Of course, if Manziel looks lost, they will still be able to re-sign Hoyer.
The decision to start either Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel against the Indianapolis Colts will not likely define the season, but it will be a huge nod of confidence, or a lack of confidence, to the rookie Manziel or Hoyer as the starting quarterback of today and the future. Maybe, like Craig wishes, Mike Pettine decides to give Hoyer one final chance to prove his worth. Or possibly, Johnny Football debuts as starting quarterback of your Cleveland Browns. Only time will tell.
31 Comments
Havlicek or Lucas? Who was better in college?
Nino (wski) or Plum (Milt)? Who should play?
Couch or Holcomb?
Brady or Anderson (Derek)?
All these conflicts and debates over the years contributed very little to team success.
This was a good article, however, and I hope whoever plays QB this weekend can excel, and receive better support from the offensive line, from the WR’s, and from the RB’s than they provided Hoyer in the debacle against the Buffalo Bills.
Hoyer’s 56.2% completion rate puts him dead last amongst “regular” NFL starters.
The pro Hoyer arguments have slowly been whittled down to basically one: he wins. Or he’s a gamer or he’s gritty or he makes the plays when they matter. That I find funny is four months ago this was the same peg that the pro-Manziel crowd was hanging their hat on. Lets not talk about his inexperience or learning a new play book. Don’t worry about any of the other stuff: JFF just makes plays.
It didn’t convince me to go with Johnny then and it isn’t a compelling reason to stick with Hoyer now. I think it’s time to see what Manziel can do.
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I think Hoyer’s early success last season, and this season was due to lack of tape on him. Now that teams have 15 games of tape on him, he’s getting easier to plan for. I think much of whatever late season success Manziel has will be attributed to lack of tape and inability to plan. If they roll with Manziel now and into the future, we could very well be in the same corner with 4 games left next year.
If starting Johnny now means he’ll have some late season success, that we’ll end up at 9-7 or 10-6, that we’ll have a shot at the playoffs, and that we’ll end up in the hunt come week 14 next year, then how could you not go with Manziel?
Sigh, we’re all Jon Snows, and Hoyer is our Ygritte. JFF is our young Olly.
We KNEW it would never work, but we still wanted it SO bad…
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Is it too late for Manziel to switch his number to 5?
https://33.media.tumblr.com/d9698daf1931a92124e66b39d3c947c1/tumblr_mwo32u5r141sa8164o2_500.gif
of course, if Salt Lake ever gets a team, then we’ll be forced to trade him:
http://i.imgur.com/pwPMmkC.gif
but, in the end, we just have to hope that he’s not living too dangerously
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We need to finsh mourning…then go kill some Lannisters, errrrr, Steelers.
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I always preferred this spelling:
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agree with much of this, except that a benefit of playing Johnny now lets the Browns know whether to keep Hoyer another season. He’ll get a multiyear offer somewhere based on the success he’s had, at competent QB salary. Not because he’s proven to all he’s competent, but because enough teams are willing to risk that salary in case he is. That’s how important the QB has become. I don’t see him coming back.
And I don’t see these last games as a significant referendum on Wild Ass Johnny. If he reverts to his college bag of tricks and gets pummeled, or if he can’t go through progressions, they’ll say he’s a rookie getting valuable experience before next camp. They’re not going to remove him as the top candidate as next year’s starter even if he throws a pick-6 each game. This year is win-win for Johnny. His downfalls will be excused, and his crazy playmaking will be shown on endless loops as The Future.
I think that all the time when people talk about keeping Hoyer. Have you looked at the NFL? Have you seen the caliber of guys under center? For all the talk about how the NFL is becoming a passing league, I’m not sure there’s more talent at QB than there was 25 years ago (factoring in that we’re talking about two completely different games).
I can think of at least four realistic landing spots for Hoyer without even thinking too hard or getting creative.
Another point that people look down on but I’m willing to embrace: going with JFF is way more fun and exciting. I’m not ashamed to admit that I want some excitement out pro sports (especially after watching those Houston and Buffalo clunkers).
I agree. It’s one of the reasons I like Crowell so much. Sure, he’ll run the wrong route, hold the ball out asking for it to get knocked away, or not bother to pickup a blitzing LBer. But, then he does this:
https://usatthebiglead.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/isaiah-crowell-touchdown-run-against-atlanta-a.gif?w=640&h=334
Jets, Tampa, Jaguars, Rams.
Good to see the byline update to C-HH. I thought that article was your style.
“…he is an average quarterback who can win games in the right situation.”
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Well in all fairness, he IS a rookie coming out as a junior; he is making his first start; and his last run of 4 opponents is stiff playoff-caliber competition with playoff hopes on the line. So yes, it is certainly not a referendum, nor should it be. It’s a tough task, and if he’s not flawless (or even if he tosses a pick six or reverts to his primal wild ass ways when plays break down–dude should get the benefit of the doubt. After all, we gave Hoyer a lot of passes in his clunkers against less opponents–i.e. winless JAX and the Raiders, Tampa, etc.
By this logic no QB should play more than a season since everyone will have tape on them. You don’t start winning as a franchise until you learn to stick with someone. There is no evidence that Manzel will be good, because there is no evidence on Manzel. That’s what every pro-Manzel argument is based on. We don’t know what he is. When you have a chance at the playoffs you don’t “take a chance”.
I agree, no matter what we do these last few games Hoyer is gone. Why would he want to put up with this for any longer than he has to? Based on his play, 10-5 as a starter he’ll get 9-10 million a year, and more importantly, a team will commit to him. He will be someone’s starter, and will not have the circus behind him. This team didn’t commit to him out of camp, didn’t commit to him when he was successful, and now is openly questioning benching him when we are tied for a playoff spot.
Name one other team that would do that? Only dysfunctional Cleveland, So He’ll go improve another team, and be in the playoffs in 2 years. Where as we will be drafting another QB in the first round when Johnny Scramble gets leveled. How’s RG3 working out in Washington?
Disagree that he’s been in any way treated unfairly by a “dysfunctional organization.” He was given the starting job despite a bad preseason, he was left in games to win some at the end where he played poorly throughout and he played himself out of a job with four straight games where his play deteriorated.
My point was not that deserves competent starter contract. My point is that some team will pay him that, and he should take it as possibly the best payday he’ll ever get. But doesn’t mean the team who pays him won’t regret it.
Did you not see a difference in his throws versus Hoyer? Or seen the lack of passing game the last seven weeks? The chance is in thinking that will change without changing anything
I won’t be surprised to see a team give him a Matt Flynn contract. I would be surprised to see a team not hedge their bets with another QB like Seattle did (and Oakland) with Flynn
Throw out all the stats you want … Hoyer is 10-5 as a starter and the winningest QB since the team came back in 1999. That you know as a fact. Manziel is a question mark and you don’t know how good he can be. Do you throw him in against the Colts or wait until the team is out of playoff contention to find out what he can do? Tough call by the coach.
Please, Craig or whoever at WFNY…is there a way to lose the gifs?
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Pettine said Hoyer starts, ergo, “no going back” has no meaning. Some of you guys write the same way that you jerk-off — get all hot and bothered and ignore reality.
Article says its Johnny time, coach two days later says um NO. dumbass
If Manziel doesn’t start they should fire the coach……….!
I,m tired of the problem being blamed on the QBs continuously. Who do they have to hand of to? Larry,Curly and Moe. Do the the Browns have quality receivers? Who on the o-line, other than Mack and Thomas would start anywhere else? Archie Manning(a better QB than either of his sons) never had a winning season in NO. It was always Archie and Danny Abramowitz against the other team. Fran Tarkington didn’t do much in NY or Atlanta. Tim Couch COULD still be QB if he had some supporting cast.
Fill these other needs, then look for a QB.
Wow, you are going way back as an obvious Cleveland and Ohio State fan. I’m from Texas but also old enough to know all those guys. Milt Plum was better but he took too many sacks trying to protect his completion percentage. Actually the Browns didn’t have any outstanding QBs (after Graham) until they signed Dr. Frank Ryan. They have had decent ones since then (Nelson, Sipe, Kosar), but it is probably time to turn the page on Hoyer if they expect to make it back to relevance anytime soon.
Archie was better than Peyton, huh? Um, no. Archie was one of the most exciting QBs of his era but not even Archie would say that.