Tampa Bay Rays hire Indians coach Kevin Cash as new manager
December 5, 2014Credit David Blatt for Kyrie Irving’s last-second basket
December 5, 2014Teams often have a span or two that come to mark decisive tide-turning points in the season. Fans can look back at those moments and recall, “Ahh, that’s when it all came together,” or, “Aww, that’s when it all went to hell.” These stretches of games usually become a virtually indistinguishable series of occurrences where one can only vaguely recall the details. Maybe a moment or two stick out, but mostly we just remember fuzzy notions, sounds and smells, like the warm radiation of the sun coming through the bedroom window on a Sunday morning—winning and losing. The Cleveland Cavaliers may be in the midst of one of those stretches in their schedule right now, coming off a 90-87 victory over the New York Knicks.
The Cavs’ upcoming series of games may ultimately be inconsequential in the grand scheme of things. Baseball and basketball teams are too streaky and unpredictable to circle, highlight, double- and triple-star a random handful of games ahead of time. The “season-defining streak” is usually only identifiable with hindsight—only verifiable after-the-fact. For instance, it felt like the 2014 Cleveland Indians were summoning momentum for the playoffs after a 11-5 run in the last three weeks of August. A few weeks later, it was the 0-4 stretch against the Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros that I remember the most. The Cleveland Browns had a 5-1 stretch after the bye week that began with a stirring comeback against the Tennessee Titans and concluded with a drubbing of the Cincinnati Bengals. If this is enough to vault them into the playoffs, it will be remembered as the culmination of their good-ness, though it sure didn’t feel like it at the time. If the Browns implode over the last four games, memories of the brief instant where the Browns were in first place.
The historical precedent for the Cavs heating up now would be the 12 straight wins over 21 days for the 2010 Miami Heat that began in late November when they were near .500.1 But what are the other warning signs that the Cavs are entering a critical stretch? First, beginning with last night’s victory over the Knicks, they have three back-to-back games in just the next eight days. The Cavs have no other rapid-fire barrage of back-to-backs like that, the closest being a portion in March with three back-to-backs in nine days.2
The Cavs are 2-2 so far this season in such circumstances with no discernible difference in average performance, although one of those games was the 110-93 shaming at the hands of the Toronto Raptors, since which the Cavs have not lost. Although there is scant evidence that teams actually perform worse in back-to-back games,3 the prevailing perception is that teams are fatigued and lethargic on the second night. But I’d wager a soup and a sandwich that the sixth game in eight nights makes for some uncooperative muscles, though data on such instances is limited. In any event, these back-to-backs will give Cavs fans a sense of how their teams respond to adversity, especially when the Cavs are so heavily reliant on their starters right now.
This current stretch also features five games in six nights, one of only four such spans the Cavs have on this season’s slate. Unless the Cavs elevate their road play—where they allow about seven more points per game—they’ll emerge from this streak a .500 team once again, after climbing up to 10-7. If the Cavs are 11-11 after next Friday night, it will cause more cries of “WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE CAVS?” to rain down from the panic-sphere.
Furthermore, the upcoming week’s calendar features relatively tough competition. Unfortunately, the Cavs aren’t hitting the road to face the Philadelphia 6-and-76ers, Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic, and the Los Angeles Kobe Bryants. This stretch includes the New York Knicks (last night), the Toronto Raptors tonight, the Brooklyn Nets next Monday, the Toronto Raptors again on Tuesday, the Oklahoma City Thunder next Thursday, then concludes with the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night. Although some of those teams have dreadful records (mostly the Knicks), entering last night they were a combined 55-53. That combined win-loss record doesn’t sound so intimidating, but there are only two other moments in the schedule where six consecutive Cavs’ opponents combine for 55 or more wins.4 Be mindful that the Thunder are a deceitful 5-13, just had Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook return from injury, and will be playing as hard and as desperately as any team in the NBA right now. Pelicans forward/center/monster Anthony Davis is probably the leading MVP candidate right now, salivating for a Cavs team that lacks interior defense.
Those numbers are slightly inflated because of the one team the Cavs play twice in this row of games: the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors’ presence on the upcoming agenda is the main reason the next week is going to act as a progress report for the developing Cavaliers.5 The Raptors are 15-4, scoring 109.7 points per game, and are, on average, outscoring opponents by nearly ten points per game, a number as high as the 15-2 Golden State Warriors’ mark.
The only time the teams faced off so far this year, as mentioned above, the Raptors feasted on the Cavs 110-93. After carrying a 13-point deficit into the second quarter, the Raptors outscored the Cavs by 30 points for the rest of the way. Lou Williams scored 36 points and had a seemingly imaginary plus-minus of +37, cooking the Cavs and having enough leftovers to feed his family through Thanksgiving dinner. Tonight’s matchup in Toronto will serve as an important early season test for the Cavs, and a failing grade will indicate that they haven’t progressed much over their five-win streak since last facing the Raptors.
Between the back-to-backs, the road games, the level of competition, and the timing, this will probably the second-most difficult stretch of the schedule for the Cavs, other than the test beginning in late February beginning with the Golden State Warriors and concluding against the San Antonio Spurs. The Cavs don’t need to go 6-0 over this crucial stretch of the schedule: but they do have to play well, especially against the Raptors, or risk looking soft against one of their few true peers in the Eastern Conference. A 3-3 result or worse could be seen as a setback. Last night against the Knicks was a good start. Even if the Cavs didn’t amaze from start to finish, June teams are made of last-possession victories on the road on national television. I don’t know if the Cavs can survive LeBron James starting 2-of-10 again from the field, but I wouldn’t mind if Kyrie Irving continued playing like his new Nikes were sprinkled with fairy dust. Hopefully, Cavs fans will be looking back on this stretch fondly as when it all came together.
- It was also part of a larger 21-1 span over 43 days. [↩]
- There are also stretches of three back-to-backs in 11 days and four back-to-backs in 16 days that conclude in early January and February, respectively. [↩]
- After taking into account that most back-to-backs conclude on the road, that is. [↩]
- Wow, is it great to play in the Eastern Conference. It’s totally unfair for the West, but great if for a team looking to get fifty-plus wins. [↩]
- Even with the injury to DeMar DeRozan. [↩]