NBA stars, Anthony Davis, and half court shots, While We’re Waiting
December 9, 2014Justin Masterson drawing interest in free agency
December 9, 2014So, you all wanted more power in the lineup? Well now you’ve got it. The Cleveland Indians shipped a prospect out and brought in an All-Star. Nice to be on the other side of things for once, isn’t it?
Brandon Moss, a 31-year old power hitter with two years left of team control, is your new middle-of-the-order bat. Yes, I am aware he hits left-handed, but in reality, that doesn’t matter. Check his splits from a season ago: .264/.366/.425 against LEFTIES and .228/.328/.441 against RIGHTIES. That is not a misprint. More important than anything, Moss is bringing legitimate power to the Indians lineup. This is a guy who has hit 55 home runs over the past two seasons and 21 HR in 84 games in 2012. Remember, it was Moss who almost single-handedly beat the Kansas City Royals in the Wild Card game with two big bombs and five RBIs.
Not sold on the power? Check out how much playing inside of Progressive Field will be a boost for Moss. Take it away, Eno Sarris of Fangraphs:
The overall park factor for offense in Cleveland and Oakland is identical: 97. But once you break it down, it looks more favorable for Moss. He’s a lefty, and the park factor for lefty home runs in Oakland was 88 and with the Indians it was 109. That Cleveland number is tied for sixth-friendliest in baseball. That’s a nice change.
“The addition of Brandon Moss provides our offense with a proven run-producer and power bat for the heart of our order,” said Tribe GM Chris Antonetti. “Brandon not only has great power, but his defensive versatility and personality also complement the team culture Tito has helped establish over the past two years.”
The former eighth-round pick of the Boston Red Sox in 2002 has spent his career moving around between the corner outfield positions and first base. Last season in Oakland, he played 54 games at first, 42 games on left, 27 games in right, and was the DH nine times. Where he will play in 2015 at this point is up for debate and subject to change.
Should the Indians stand pat with the roster as it currently stands, I would expect Moss and Nick Swisher to switch off between right field and DH with some first base mixed in on the days that Carlos Santana would require rest (as in DH’ing). With that said, there is a log jam of guys that will need to be broken up. The addition of Moss means someone will have to be jettisoned.
Last year’s right field platoon of David Murphy and Ryan Raburn should be and will be spilt one way or another. The “Good Guy” is under contract at $6 million for 2015 and probably has more value than his counterpart Raburn. The Indians giving Ryan a two-year extension during a 2013 hot streak was a big mistake, but he hits right-handed and that plays in his favor to stick around. Swisher’s contract is a serious impediment (two years and $30 million left), especially coming off of surgery on both knees. I have to believe that if the Indians can find a taker, Swish will be the one who goes. Obviously, Michael Brantley will start the season in left with Michael Bourn in center. Then again, if someone came calling for Bourn, you know Antonetti would listen.
Along with the power, Moss comes with tremendous makeup, which Antonetti spoke to in his released statement. Moss and Josh Donaldson were the two biggest leaders in that Oakland clubhouse these past two playoff seasons. Now they are both gone. Moss came up through the Boston organization during the Terry Francona era and has familiarity with his new skipper. The Indians know what they are getting here, another high character guy.
Indians hated giving up Joey Wendle and his off-chart makeup, but Brandon Moss is also ++ makeup person with power they badly need
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) December 8, 2014
If there is any downside to the deal, it is that Moss had offseason hip surgery and won’t start running for another five weeks. He should be ready by Opening Day. “Physically, I feel great,” Moss said Monday. “In the surgery, they didn’t have to do quite as much as they thought they needed to do initially, which is always a good thing.”
As for when he can ramp up with the bat?
“I’m not sure on the timetable when they’re going to let me swing,” he said. “I think that will be the last stepping stone, rotating into it and pounding into it. I learned over the years that I’m not a person who can start hitting in November or December because when I do, I tinker with things and before I know it I’ve lost what it is I do well.”
Defensively, Moss leaves something to be desired. In other words, if you were looking for a major upgrade from the Murphy/Raburn duo, you won’t find it with Brandon. The $6 million price tag and two years of team control is right in the Tribe’s wheelhouse, however the A’s handed him over for a guy who wasn’t listed as one of the Indians top 10 prospects. Should they be concerned about the hip? You would assume the front office did plenty of due diligence and if the hip was that big of a problem, Moss would still be in Oakland. But this is Billy Beane we are talking about here. Nobody knows how he thinks. He obviously loves who he got in return.
Joey Wendle is a nice ball player and a great kid. He’s scrappy second baseman who really made a name for himself two years ago in Class-A Carolina when he hit .295/.372/.532 with 16 home runs in 413 at-bats. He was a little banged up last season as he advanced to AA Akron, but hit .253/.311/.414 in 336 ABs. The Indians were high on him, but the 24-year old is blocked by both Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez in Cleveland. On the list of middle infielders in the organization, Wendle isn’t viewed in the same class as stud prospect Francisco Lindor and fellow shortstop Erik Gonzalez. The Tribe dealt from a position of strength.
So what does this do for the Indians today? Let us project out what a possible lineup would look like with things as they currently stand:
CF Michael Bourn
SS Jose Ramirez
LF Michael Brantley
1B Carlos Santana
RF/DH Brandon Moss
C Yan Gomes
2B Jason Kipnis
RF/DH Nick Swisher
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
I could get down with that. Defensively, there are still going to be shortcomings, but you would hope that a year of Ramirez/Lindor at short and Kipnis coming to camp in better shape off of an extremely disappointing season will help stabilize things up the middle. It still won’t be pretty, but anything has to be an improvement over the “glove work” we saw in 2014.
With Moss in the fold, Antonetti said the team’s focus is now more towards adding pitching depth. I believe the search for a back end right-hander to pair with Bryan Shaw is something Chris would love to address. As good as Scott Atchison was last year, expecting a repeat season from the 38-year old may be asking a lot. An additional hard-thrower in the late innings would allow Francona to give Shaw, Atch and closer Cody Allen more rest, something they badly needed and couldn’t get down the stretch. Shaw was clearly gassed late in the season as he set a team record for appearances with 80, which led the league.
One thing I can say with certainty, whether it is at the Winter Meetings in San Diego or afterwards, the Indians are not done trying to improve their roster. Moss was just the first piece.
24 Comments
Chris Antonetti may never meet a 1b/ DH/ RF he doesn’t like, but at least this one hits for some power.
I’m not a physiologist, and clearly not an expert on baseball hitting, but doesn’t a significant part of a hitter’s power reside in how he pivots his hips? Hip surgery doesn’t make anyone more nervous than just identifying a “downside”? He hasn’t run since his surgery. He hasn’t swung a bat since his surgery. Yet, he’s our new “power bat?” Nobody (other than me) is nervous about this?
everyone is nervous to some extent about it. but, most also believe the FO checked it out with their medical staff and must have been reasonably assured that it will be okay.
the way I see it is I am also nervous about Swisher’s surgery. so, we have 2 chances instead of 1 to get a guy back who can hit 20+ HRs in the middle of our order if they are healthy. if they both recover, then even better. if neither recover, then at least we tried?
What like drafting a RB with known knee issues?
Everyone loves the concept of trading Swisher but since the Tribe won’t take someone else’s bloated future debts I can’t imagine how the conversation between the receiving team’s GM and owner would go. “Hey, two straight diminishing years, gets hurt a lot, coming off double knee surgery, shoulder problem, makes way too much. Good clubhouse presence. We could use this guy.”
But if Jim Paxson could talk Portland into taking blimpy Shawn Kemp and his unpaid millions, maybe Antonetti has some dirt on somebody.
I googled around yesterday to get a better idea of recovery rates on guys who have had similar surgeries. Didn’t find anything I’d call definitive.
The best case I came across was Chase Utley who had it in 2008. He was a year or so younger than Moss is now. There’s been like another 30+ guys who have had the surgery, but most of the other names were older guys already on the down swing in their career. A-Rod had it in 2013. Some articles mention guys in their early 20’s opting for the surgery and recovering, but I couldn’t track down any names.
So it’s hard to say. The most solid info I came across was an interview with a doctor discussing A-Rod. When asked about his chances at recovery, the doctor said it’s really an issue of how much damage was done, the amount that needs to be repaired, etc. Which basically amounts to “who knows?”
Other things I learned: these surgeries are becoming more common for baseball players (as well as other sports, especially hockey). Techniques have improved and recovery times have been cut down drastically. Cynics blame PEDs and steroid use for the rise in hip surgeries, but other doctors have suggested that it’s because of new training methods and players starting serious training at earlier ages.
Good info! Thanks. It doesn’t alleviate any of my fears, but I’ll hope for the best along with everyone else.
Re A-Rod, he was older, but his recovery was *likely* impacted by HGH. Probably not a good analog (for lots of reasons).
Sure, I’m right there with you re the FO due diligence. I guess I’m just (still) frustrated that these are the kinds of deals that this FO is stuck with evaluating. Oh well, no use tilting at windmills, I guess.
Alex Gordon was the first name I remembered tearing hip cartilage. Looking it up, he missed 12 weeks of the 2009 season, and wasn’t effective until 2011. It’s a big gamble.
I’m definitely worried and not assuming anything out of Moss.
Another thing I read is that recovery time should be about 12 weeks. Moss had his surgery on October 21st which puts him about half way through his rehab. So while the team most likely knows how bad the hip was to begin with, nobody has a clue on how his recovery will go.
I know Francona is going to do it, so maybe I shouldn’t start complaining already, but I’m going to be mighty peeved if we go with that lineup with our two worst hitters manning the top two spots.
I love that this lineup includes “Santana Moss.”
Oh, last point – originally they thought Moss needed microfracture surgery which is (apparently) worse. But he didn’t. So we’ve got that going for us.
I said in another thread that I think that Murphy is the one who is going to be moved. I don’t see where he plays right now. And similar to what you said, I think this team is better off praying that Swisher somehow gets healthy and recovers some value.
I’ve been saying this since this stupid story was first mentioned, before it took on the life that it has. Who in their right mind trades for Swisher? Only way it happens if we take on an equally ugly, payroll crushing contract.
Yet people somehow thought a Moss/Swisher deal was in the works. Huh? It’s just…. no.
So we’ve got three players identified, none particularly good comps for Moss:
Chase Utley is the best case (no seeming recovery time).
Alex Gordon as an intermediate (took a year but eventually recovered).
And Alex Rodriguez as the worst case (never really recovered).
http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/no-answer.gif
I’d call Gordon closer to two years than one. He got hurt April 2009 and wasn’t useful until April 2011. But yeah, this is a complete shot in the dark.
The thing with LaPorta: people like to blame the hip surgery as though that’s what ruined his career. It’s definitely a possibility, but he raked in AAA before the surgery and he’s still racking in AAA (well, Mexico) after the surgery. So while I’m sure it didn’t help, lets not act like he was destined for the majors until he had the surgery.
Thats nothing compared to the Coco Crisp Milton Bradley years
Not crazy about the lefty heavy lineup at the top, but not much else you can do but maybe this tweaking?
CF Michael Bourn
2B Jason Kipnis*
LF Michael Brantley
1B Carlos Santana
C Yan Gomes
RF/DH Brandon Moss
RF/DH Nick Swisher**
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
SS Jose Ramirez
*assuming he learns portion control over the winter break
**assuming the knees and shoulder (fingers toes) are somewhat brotastically healed
A Matt LaPorta discussion. Oh boy.
LaPorta was clearly a lesser talent in 2013. He hit worse, and there was no interest by the Indians in seeing him any more. That hip injury really killed his chances. Maybe he’s not destined for major league success, but his chances are a lot better with a good hip.
And I know B-Ref calls the Mexican league as an equivalent to AAA, but I call shenanigans on that. Guys who OPS 1.000+ at AAA get regular major league at bats. Guys who OPS 1.000+ in Mexico are filler for minor league playoff rosters (Branyan) or get sent to AA where their OPS drops a bit (Jake Fox).
Take that lineup TD suggested, and drop the two worst hitters to the bottom. You still have left-right balance and now you give more opportunities to your best, and less to your worst.
Plus he had at least two hip surgeries, if I recall correctly.
Just saying – there was never a point before the surgery where Laporta looked ready for the majors. But then again, maybe that’s because he always had hip issues? You could go around all day on these things.
Agree that it’s tough to say when the hip actually became a problem, but 2009 looked ready to me. He was one of the top hitters in the International League (surrounded by famous names of Cleveland Indians past – Andy Marte, Shelley Duncan, and Jordan Brown) and was a league average hitter in his first attempt at the majors.
Looking up the numbers exactly, he came back up in August 2009 and put up an .805 OPS (on a pedestrian BABIP). I was all but certain he was ready to start up tearing the league. And in a lineup that just saw Asdrubal and Choo break out and was going to add Santana midseason and get Sizemore and Westbrook back healthy and a fresh voice replacing Wedge. 2010 was going to be a good year.