We’re talking Ohio State and the National Championship: WFNY Roundtable

Now that the Ohio State Buckeyes have shocked (at least part of) the world in knocking Alabama out of the first ever College Football playoff, what are your expectations for the championship game against Oregon? Will Cardale Jones vault himself into folk lore? Will Ezekiel Elliot take the entire offense on his back and carry them down the field? Can the Buckeyes defense stop the Marcus Mariota and the Ducks sign language-driven offense?

A few of us a WFNY sat down for a good, old fashioned roundtable to discuss what it is we’ll be watching, and what we think the world will be talking about come Tuesday morning.

Craig says Alabama was one thing, but this is Oregon…

Personally, I think of college football teams as constantly being in cycles. Alabama is always going to be good, but this year wasn’t the top of a cycle for their program. Blake Sims played well this year, but even as a senior it was his first year starting at QB. I know he broke records, but it just isn’t the same kind of animal you face with Oregon in 2014.

Marcus Mariota redshirted in 2011, and started in both 2012 and 2013. This is his peak year and likely his last one before he goes pro. It feels like Oregon is at their peak and Ohio State, while a surprisingly good team this year, can’t be considered in a peak year, I don’t think.

That doesn’t mean Ohio State can’t win the title game, but I just think the Oregon team is in a completely different place in the cycle than Alabama was. My hopes are big for Ohio State, but I’m not shocked that Oregon is the favorite.

Andrew needs to get a dog…

Ohio State is one of the youngest teams in the Top 25. There are freshmen, sophomores, and juniors all over the field. That’s the scary thing. This team overcame all their adversity and now these kids are one game away from the unthinkable. And there’s no reason to think they won’t be back here next year. As Urban loves to say, “the future is bright at Ohio State”.

But this game? This Oregon game? It scares me. Probably more than it should. Ohio State is a confident group playing their best football of the season at precisely the right time. They’ve proven the spotlight isn’t too bright for them. Now that they are once again seven point underdogs, they might have Oregon right where want them.

But something is nagging at me. I just cannot suspend disbelief that a third string QB can win a National Championship in his third ever start. Which is the dumbest analysis you’ll read all week. It has nothing to do with talent, matchups, Xs and Os. This OSU offense is able to score on anyone. Maybe it’s not on Cardale to win the game. Maybe he just needs to be average. Maybe it’s more on the defense to stop Oregon in order for the Buckeyes to win.

Jacob is taking the over…

I still think we’re seeing that Ohio State is playing as good of football as any team has ever. That Big Ten Championship? Beating Alabama? Those were two of the biggest back-to-back wins for a team. And oh yeah, they were with the massive and unproven Cardale Jones and a ton of improving youngsters on both sides of the ball. I think even Buckeye fans are underestimating how historically impressive this team has been of late.

The game will be a shootout, for sure. Oregon’s defense is worse than Alabama’s, Wisconsin’s and Michigan State’s. Ohio State’s defense will be the best that Oregon and Mariota has faced all year. The Ducks are banged up on both sides of the ball, and that 59-20 final line against Florida State was inflated by a series of turnovers and a team that quit. This is gonna be a darn good game between clearly the best two teams right now.

Joe G. is dreaming of Ezekiel…

I have been so pleasantly surprised with how OSU has developed and fought through so much adversity this season. After losing Braxton Miller before the season, my expectations were lowered for the season. They were putting a big part of their team on the backs of underclassmen. Quarterback, running back, offensive line, receivers, defensive line, linebackers, and secondary are littered with underclassmen who have really been exceptional. That does even take into account the injuries of the quarterbacks and each replacement playing great to keep the team rolling.

Now comes the matchup with the Ducks. This game should be a shootout with big plays deciding the game. I think the way the Buckeyes have played over the last couple games give them a great chance to come out on top. Marcus Mariota is a great player, but he can be slowed down. The thing on the side of OSU is the team’s ability to put pressure on the backfield. If Ohio State’s defensive line can make pressure, it can cause the Ducks to commit turnovers that could change the game.

The offense will need to stick to their running game more then they did versus Alabama. Ezekiel Elliott needs to be the center of the offense and run down the throat of the Ducks’ defense. Ohio State needs to control the time of possession and not allow Oregon to get too many possessions. The Bucks will need a team effort to win this game. Can’t wait for Monday!

Kyle is optimistic so he gets the last word…

All of America has a collective case of amnesia. There are about a hundred different indicators that would lead one to make this diagnosis, but only one germane to this analysis. Less than a week and a half ago, Alabama was the un-slayable Goliath in the college football valley that was going to meet Ohio State in single combat in the Sugar Bowl and crush their puny skulls with their bare hands. One out of a preposterous forty-three experts (err, well, individuals) at ESPN picked Ohio State to beat Alabama. One out of forty-three!

Then, something amazing happened: Ohio State won. More than that, they thoroughly outplayed Alabama for three quarters of the game, and would have won by three touchdowns had Ohio State not turned it over deep in their own territory and been unable to emerge from the shadow of their own end zone for much of the fourth quarter. Despite this, Ohio State enters Monday’s showdown with Oregon as a seven-point underdog. Even after David slew Goliath with his sling and stone and held his severed head up for the whole battlefield to see, the masses shrugged their shoulders and said, “Meh, his aim’s not that good.” Mark May takes ONE picture acting like a pleasant human being and everyone forgets that he was only one of dozens of pundits who never gave the Buckeyes a chance.

All of this is fantastic.

There’s a great case to be made for both Ohio State and Oregon. They’re eerily similar teams, with potent offenses and serviceable defenses. Football Outsiders’ most important stats both rate these two teams near the top; FEI favoring Oregon.

There are two reasons I lean toward Ohio State. The first is the quality on both sides of the ball. Ohio State is the best offense Oregon has faced this year, and probably the best defense (third at the lowest). On the other hand, while Oregon is definitely the best offense Ohio State has played this year, Ohio State has played at least one much better defense, and it thrashed that defense. Ezekiel Elliott became only the second player in recorded history to rush for 200 yards against the Tide, and the first in Saban’s time, as Ohio State rolled up 537 yards.

The second reason I lean toward OSU is: Urban Meyer, with a chip on his team’s shoulder.

I think they’re two stellar, very evenly matched teams. But I think Ohio State has a better chance of slowing the Oregon attack down ever so slightly and just enough to outscore them. Ohio State absolutely must win the turnover battle, or else the opportunistic Ducks will quack into the forties. If Ohio State can keep the turnover margin even, I give them a slight edge.