Danny Salazar being investigated for possible sexual assault
February 4, 2015D’Qwell Jackson arrested for beating up pizza guy
February 4, 2015Three-hundred and sixty-seven days ago, I wrote a piece titled Things that annoy me about the Cavaliers right now. It is a fascinating read to remember how things were for this franchise just 12 months ago. Let’s fast-forward to the ending because that’s always the best part:
“The bottom line is that the Cleveland Cavaliers currently are the most disappointing, dysfunctional and disastrous NBA organization. That makes me so sad. And certainly quite annoyed. Annoyed enough to question whether I should even keep caring about all of this much longer.”
Enter stage left, LeBron James. And suddenly, the entire basketball existence in Northeast Ohio is flipped on its head. No longer are 30-win seasons a way of life, but 60-win seasons are an expectation. A trip to the NBA Finals was all but assumed for this team by mid-July. That is always a scary proposition.
As my business school finance professor always says: “The secret to happiness is low expectations.” The expectations could not have been higher for this still very young and recently discombobulated franchise. They were bound to disappoint at some point during the regular season. Alex Dewey predicted this just days after the Kevin Love rumors began in late July.
But now, things are going quite swimmingly. A team that was 19-20 just a few weeks ago is now on an 11-game winning streak and stands only 1.5 games back of the third seed in the Eastern Conference. It’s a whole new world for the Cavaliers and their fanbase. And that leads to today’s rebuttal from last February’s rant, looking at various items that please me very much about the Cavs.
That David Blatt seems to have figured out the NBA. Let’s start with Christmas Day. It’s arbitrary, of course. But it represents a fun turning point in one key area that I was so interested in this season.
Before Christmas Day: 27 games, .273 three-point rate (T-13th) and 26.6 offensive rebound rate (T-11th)
Since Christmas Day: 23 games, .343 three-point rate (3rd) and 28.3 offensive rebound rate (5th)
Here’s also a visualization of the change in shot selection, via NBA.com/stats:
Yes, there are fewer attempts right near the basket. But there are many, many more shots from three-point range. And the Cavs are even grabbing more offensive rebounds! This is counter-intuitive since longer shots have lower odds of being snagged by the shooting team, as Grantland’s Kirk Goldsberry demonstrated a while back.
This dichotomy was something I discussed in depth early in the season in asking whether Cleveland could join 2013-14 Houston and Portland as a rare team to rank top-10 in both categories. Ranking in the top-five is even rarer, occurring only 11 times in 35 seasons of the three-point line. That’s the type of special performance many expected from the Cavs offense this season.
Does David Blatt deserve all of the credit for this change? Certainly not. The newcomers have been a big help in hoisting more threes and grabbing more offensive boards. But looking at game tape, one would hardly think this beautiful offense has any relation to the stagnant mid-range-focused offense from November. Blatt’s acclimation to the NBA game is a part of this.
That they’re this successful even with bad shooting from Kevin Love. Remember what we said about expectations? At the time of the trade, I wrote a mega-post detailing everything statistics told us about Kevin Love, three-time All-Star. I cautioned that he probably isn’t a top-10 player, as many said. I cautioned that he’s an odd scoring threat, oft relying on creation from other players. But I couldn’t have foreseen this.
After shooting 37.6 percent from threes last season, Love is at 33.0 percent right now. He’s at an even worse 27.6 percent in his last 15 games. What made the 6-foot-10 Oregonian so valuable was his elite rebounding and impressive passing combined with this unique outside shooting. His shooting touch just seems off, for whatever reason. Maybe it’s his back. Maybe he should sit for a while. We don’t know.
BBall Breakdown’s Seth Partnow probably had the most nuanced and comprehensive piece on how the Cavs could use Love a bit better in the offense. It’s not simply about forcing him touches at the elbow, but also about causing havoc and creating all types of three-point looks for the entire team. Love’s sheer presence adds extra floor spacing for the Cavs and there are still more creative things Blatt could do to create better opportunities.
For now, Love is just struggling. And the Cavs still have a 113.8 offensive rating (via NBA.com/stats) during this 11-game winning streak. That would best the Los Angeles Clippers’ league-leading mark of 110.6. And again, that’s despite Love shooting very terribly. There’s considerable upside for the Cavs offense to do even better marks with his improvement.
That Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert appear to be tremendous fits. Let’s discuss the three newcomers one by one and share some appreciation for what they’ve added to the fold:
Mozgov, who turns 29 in July, is averaging 9.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.6 blocks and 2.9 fouls in 26.2 minutes per game with the Cavs. He’s not perfect by any means. He’s a solid but unspectacular rim protector. Fear The Sword’s David Zavac shared some great Synergy Sports Technology stats the other day on him, Tristan Thompson and Love. Mozgov is just very, very big and plays with a physical edge. And that’s a big help for the previously under-sized Cavs.
Smith, who turns 30 in September, is averaging 13.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.5 steals in 32.3 minutes per game with the Cavs. I’ve been poking fun at how he averages eight three-point shots per game, but that’s right in line with the shot chart I mentioned earlier. Smith, unlike Dion Waiters, is a proven accurate three-point shooter and bench scoring wizard. He might go 1-for-7 one game, then blow up for 25 the next. His versatility, length and scoring pop are assets for sure.
Shumpert, who turns 25 in July, is averaging 6.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 0.6 assists and 1.1 steals in 19.1 minutes per game with the Cavs. He’s only appeared in seven games so far, but you have to be impressed by his unsustainable 42.1 three-point shooting percentage. That’s far better offense than I expected. Nonetheless, he’s a scrappy defender who fits very well with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving in the backcourt. I’m still not certain what his future might be with the club, but he’s fit very nicely of late.
Three rotation pieces averaging over 75 minutes per game in total. That’s a whole lot of change midseason for any one club. The Cavs did that somewhat last year, too, with the additions of Luol Deng and Spencer Hawes. The difference is that these three players actually fit cohesively into a scheme that makes logical sense. It’s humming very nicely right now. It’s hard not to be excited about these guys.
That some moderate roster flexibility remains, despite tax hell in 2015-16. Two weeks ago, I broke out the math and shared all of the complications behind the Cavaliers’ salary cap future. Yes, it was fortuitous for the team that Kyrie Irving missed out on an All-Star starting bid. Overall, however, the outlook does not look too pretty. They’re going to be in the tax next season, quite substantially. It’s a matter of what comes next.
Even with that looming concern, there should still be a bit of optimism for flexibility. Brendan Haywood’s contract, although not particularly useful to Cleveland this summer anymore because of the corresponding tax burden, could still be used this month for a final bench piece. Perhaps a guy like Ed Davis or Mo Williams (more soon from Kirk on this) makes sense? The Lakers or Timberwolves could certainly use Haywood’s odd contract more so than the Cavs.
From there, changes are still possible down the line. I continue to be pessimistic over whether Iman Shumpert is with the Cavaliers next season. What about J.R. Smith’s future? He has a player option he’s expected to exercise for 2015-16. Besides that, there’s wiggle room. A quickly expanding cap over $80 million in 2016-17 means the Cavs might exit without the dreaded three straight years in the tax. That would keep them away from the repeater tax penalty. That’s the goal and, yes, small changes still are possible between now and then.
That Chris Haynes is a very good beat writer. Remember this tweet? I couldn’t stop mentioning it in my piece last year. It was just so inconceivable that the Plain Dealer, the biggest newspaper in the region, had two Cavs writers sharing an account while working the beat. It just was so backwards.
So the Northeast Ohio Media Group posted two openings, one a Cavs beat writer and one a LeBron James-focused writer. Chris Haynes has been an excellent fit as that Cavs beat writer. He was the former Blazers beat writer for Comcast Sportsnet Northwest. He’s quickly emerged as a nice complement to the Akron Beacon Journal’s Jason Lloyd on the Cavs media landscape. Kudos to you, Chris.
That we have a bunch of really good Cleveland writers all over the basketball webs. If that was it, it wouldn’t be too excited. But there are a ton of Cleveland-bred and now Cleveland-based writers all over the basketball interwebs this season.
ESPN moved Dave McMenamin to the Cavs beat from the Lakers beat. Brendan Bowers, my former WaitingForNextYear weekend compatriot, now writes regularly at SLAM Magazine. John Krolik, the former lead guy at Cavs: The Blog, is back and writing again. Amin Vafa and Eric Maroun, two other folks with Cleveland roots, are two of the higher-ups at the incredible and oft-expanding Hardwood Paroxysm network of basketball sites at FanSided.
Meanwhile, the Fear the Sword blog continues to be really, really excellent. Kudos to my friend David Zavac, the site editor, and Fear The Sword Twitter czar Ryan Mourton for their great work. Sam Vecenie, who used to write over there, is now doing more work at CBS Sports. And cheers to former Fear The Sword editor Conrad Kaczmarek, now working on the NBA’s social media team. That’s a nice little roll call of Cavs Twitter right there.
That we’re again talking about playoff positioning and postseason basketball in Cleveland. Don’t take this for granted, folks. Just look at this tweet:
Since '01 Boston sports teams have made 20 conference championships 13 championships and won 9 titles.Talk about an embarrassment of riches.
— RED SOX STUFF (@RedSox_Stuff) February 3, 2015
In case you’re counting, since 1965, Cleveland sports teams have won three conference championships and zero titles. Sure, Boston has one extra team and whatnot. But we’re also talking about a difference of 36 years. We should all be so very thankful for a very incredible team in this town.
It seems we’re nitpicking with Kevin Love. It seems we’re still complaining about Matthew Dellavedova. It seems we’re taking for granted 15-point wins against teams like Philadelphia and Minnesota. For the last four years, those very, very bad teams were the Cavaliers! Now, again, the Cavs are good. They’re very good. And there’s going to be a fun few more months of very good basketball, too.
9 Comments
Yes…
Love’s difficulty transitioning from being the fulcrum of an offense who gets to snuggle the ball every possession to being a quick catch/shoot guy from outside makes Kyrie’s similar transition that much more impressive. Love’s trying to do this while somewhat older than Kyrie and looks to me like he’s losing his feel: his touches are less frequent, making each touch more precious and suddenly he’s hesitating instead of jacking it like he’s practiced hundreds of thousands of times. I still say they need to run some inside stuff for him and not let that part of his game rust out. They will need it in the slow-down playoff offenses.
I would add Dion’s absence as an addition. With him too many guys demanded ball snuggles on offense, too many guys wouldn’t play consistent defense. I say this even though (as I am required to add) I am a Dion fan.
re: Blatt, somebody had a good stat that the Cavs weren’t losing to teams the 2nd time around FWIW. I couldn’t locate it, sorry. If anybody has it…
Double snuggle?
http://www.killthehydra.com/wp-content/uploads/snuggle-thug-life1.jpg
Red Sox stuff FTW baby! This is what keeps me sane living in Cleveland, Ohio.
I’m going to be greedy for the Cavaliers and hope Griff can swing one more deal. Either that veteran backup PG that has been rumored for awhile now or one more big man, for depth.
I’m still not speaking to you.
Couldn’t help but notice that you failed to mention Joe Vardon in the roll call of Cavs writers…
Everything did work itself out. Go Cavs.