Don’t trust the computers on Ohio State in the NCAA tournament: WFNY Stats & Info
March 17, 2015Kevin Love plays HORSE against NFL receiver Eric Decker
March 17, 2015No one would argue that the Cleveland Cavaliers are a lousy team at this point in the season—they’re a very good professional basketball team, especially in the 30 games A.B. (After Bowling). Their unassailable top-tier status is in spite of some obvious flaws and glaring question marks. They’re still in the bottom-third of the league in defensive efficiency. Their backup small forward has a bad (read-arthritic?) hip, their “big third” has a sore back, and their backup point guard looks more like a ball handler for the Tune Squad than an NBA team. Most notably, The Cavs are only a smidgeon above .500 on the road, with an unimpressive 19-17 record away from Quicken Loans Arena.
But they remain the prohibitive favorites to win the NBA Finals. Everyone knows the cachet the Cavaliers achieved by acquiring LeBron James and Kevin Love to accompany Kyrie Irving, but with the brutal loss on Monday to the Miami Heat, the loss two weeks ago to the Atlanta Hawks — their foremost conference rivals — and the capabilities demonstrated by the, let’s say top six seeds in the Western Conference, one has to ask: Are Vegas and the betting public favoring the Cavaliers, or merely the idea of the Cavaliers?
If the Cavaliers’ status as favorites is attributable to the dream version of the Cavaliers — an imagined entity that people are projecting onto a good but flawed team — then perhaps it is because of the glimpses of the unstoppable team with which the Cavaliers tease basketball fans, tantalizing them with dazzling sights in spectacular trailers that the final cut doesn’t yet deliver.
These fleeting glimpses of dominance nearly all come from the same place: On the fast break. The fast break isn’t really a “place” in the traditional sense, but rather a place during which certain conditions prevail; a place and a time. Much like “the Monsoon” was once used to refer to the time of year when seasonal winds brought torrential rains upon the Indian region, the fast break is the basketball court when a team attempts to score immediately after a change in possession. And much like the Monsoon, the fast break is a devastating force of nature when controlled by this Cavaliers team.
Much like the Monsoon, the fast break is a devastating force of nature when controlled by this Cavaliers team.
The Cavaliers seem like a diminished, more manageable team at times to opponents (usually against better teams), because they’re less active on the break — not scoring enough fast break points. This is an affliction that affects other teams less than it does the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers score only 12.6 fast break points per game, 17th in the NBA. They trail not-so-renowned powerhouse offenses like the Sacramento Kings and Detroit Pistons in fast break points. The Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns, and Houston Rockets have scored over 300 more fast break points than the Cavaliers this season.
Obviously, every team that is scoring fewer fast break points than the Golden State Warriors (leading the league at 20.8 per game) could try to score more, no different than trying to win more games. The difference is that the Cavaliers are probably the most dangerous team in the NBA on the fast break, scoring 1.20 points per possession in transition, the most in the NBA.1 But what makes the Cavs the most efficient transition team in the league, and what can they do (if anything) to score more fast break points?
LeBron James and Kyrie Irving are Freaks of Nature
If a team is trying to score more easy points via the fast break, it doesn’t hurt to have two of the best players suited to the task. LeBron James is arguably the most dangerous fast break player in NBA history, and stands alongside Charles Barkley as the guy you least wanted to ever see running straight at you on a court with a possessed look in his eyes, joined by Shaquille O’Neal during one of the 20 or so times he decided to take the ball coast-to-coast.
Kyrie Irving is a little less direct on the break, weaving his way toward the hoop with his sorcerer-like ball-handling, then lofting the ball over outstretched arms and having it magically bounce in the hoop, even if he can’t even see the hoop. I’ve compared their scoring approaches to that of a rhinoceros and a snake. Both can kill you, though in very different ways.
It's unclear on some of Kyrie's lefty layups in traffic — and not just in this game — if he can even see the basket. Crazy.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) March 13, 2015
Each of them — James and Irving — is a fast break on his own. Only a handful of players are a threat at any conceivable moment in the first ten seconds of the shot clock. The gifs below show both of them turning an ordinary possession into a fast break simply because they felt like it. First, LeBron splits a double team while taking on the entire Dallas Mavericks defense in last Tuesday’s game.
Now, here’s James attacking a backpedaling Kawhi Leonard at full speed in last Thursday’s game against the San Antonio Spurs.
In this one, Irving (also in Thursday’s Spurs game) leaves Danny Green in the dust and goes directly for an over-matched Tiago Splitter. Although these were Irving’s only two fast break points in the game, they came when the Cavs were down 84-90 with eight minutes remaining, and evinced a desire to attack that led to another 23 points from Irving in the final 13 minutes of the game.
Of players with more than 150 possessions used in transition, the Cavs are the only team with multiple players in the top ten of points per possession. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving score 1.20 and 1.24 points per possession used in transition, respectively, making them the best transition duo in the league.
The Cavs Have Mobile Bigs Who Can Run the Floor
It doesn’t take rocket appliances to see that Kyrie Irving and LeBron James are helpful on the fast break. But (relatively) fleet-footed big men like Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov, and Kevin Love help matters as well. Thompson is virtually worthless on offense when he isn’t dunking on the run, but he’s darn good at that. And Govzilla is shockingly mobile for a seven-footer. Similar to their smaller and nimbler counterparts who do far more dribbling, Thompson and Govzilla form the best transition duo of big men in the NBA. Of players with over 25 transition possessions, Thompson leads the league with 1.65 points per possession, and Govzilla ranks ninth with 1.46 points per possession.2 Yes, Thompson and Govzilla are more efficient than James and Irving in transition. They simply aren’t involved as much, given they usually have a greater distance to cover, they’re slower and, you know, can’t really dribble.
More than anything, though, their efficacy is a credit to their willingness to run up and down the floor. At the expense of making Thompson feel unloved,3 here’s Govzilla in action. First — from February’s mauling of the Miami Heat in Cleveland — ‘Gov receives a 30-foot pass from JR Smith, outrunning the mobile Hassan Whiteside.
In March 7’s game against the Phoenix Suns, ‘Gov sprinted back to finish a fast break with a thunderous alley oop served up by Matthew Dellavedova, with Tristan Thompson in hot pursuit should it fail.
Kevin Love is One of the Best Outlet Passers in the NBA
Another vital component to the Cavs explosive fast break offense is Kevin Love. Yes, that Kevin Love: the below-the-rim, purportedly unathletic, painfully white power forward whose role in the Cavs offense continues to be both enigmatic and indispensable. While people like Charles Barkley (and uhh myself) continue to implore Coach David Blatt and the rest of the offense to utilize Love more in the post, he’s already at home in the Cavs fast break offense due to his unique and transcendent skill: outlet passing.
An outlet pass is one that pushes the ball beyond the shadows of a team’s own basket, putting it a safe distance from the opponent’s scoring range. If accurate, deep, and quick enough, an outlet pass generates a fast break before the opponent is able to maneuver into a position to even attempt to stop them, like a deep football pass over the heads of the secondary into a receiver’s outstretched arms. And Kevin Love has thrown more touchdown passes this year than Browns quarterbacks did all of last season.
Take this gorgeous flick to a sprinting LeBron James at midcourt, who finishes the break with some help from the Gov-father on one of the most beautiful fast breaks I’ve seen this season, the ball only touching the ground for the briefest moment.
Below is a diagram of the movement. Look how fast Love propels the ball down court, and how much ground James and Mozgov force pursuing Heat defenders Luol Deng and Shabazz Napier to cover. They don’t have the square footage to cover the Cavs at full speed, and are doomed from the start.
Below is yet another clip from the same early February game versus the Heat, this one showing Love fire an overhead, two-handed frozen rope to a streaking JR Smith that would make Tom Brady blush.
It only makes sense that the Cavs would be the most efficient transition team in the league when looking at their personnel. Kyrie Irving’s ball handling, Kevin Love’s outlet passes, LeBron James’ strength near the hoop, and a couple of big men’s willingness to run the floor make for a deadly combination on the break. Summarily, the Cavs personnel make them the best-equipped transition team in the league. But, therein lies an opportunity to become even better, and become an even more dangerous basketball team.
Recommendation No. 1: Continue to Improve on the Defensive End, Especially on the Perimeter
There are several ways to increase fast break points, such as leaking out more often (named “cherry-picking” and associated with playground scoundrels), playing smaller lineups, running a quick-fire offense designed to jack up a shot in less than seven seconds, and taking more defensive gambles. These strategies often come with a tax — transition offense improves at the expense of something else.
However, the best way to generate more fast break points is to create more turnovers through solid defense. Unlike made shots, defenses don’t have time to retreat and position themselves after a turnover. The Cavs don’t need to start gambling like bad teams in order to create more turnovers, only continue to improve and play sound defense. Oh, and maybe give Iman Shumpert more minutes.
Iman Shumpert is the flint that starts the fire, a one-man spark that ignites a fast break. He strikes at opposing swingmen, forces steals, and immediately foes for an easy basket. For instance, here’s Iman against the Mavericks last week, stepping in front of the much bigger Dirk to nab the ball and push it upcourt.
In another clip from last week’s Mavericks game, Iman picks the pocket of an unsuspecting Bernard James, finishing the break with a nasty reverse slam dunk.
The Cavs have substantially improved at the defensive end since bringing in Shumpert, Mozgov, and JR Smith. They’ve moved from 26th in defensive rating B.B. (a terrible 106.3 points per 100 possessions) to a mediocre 16th in defensive rating A.B. (102.0). During the same span, they’ve also improved dramatically on offense. But their fast break points have only improved from 11.6 per game B.B. to 12.6 per game A.B., probably because their turnovers forced have mostly remained the same (down from 13.5 to 13.2).
It’s as if the Cavs had to concentrate so hard to fix all their problems in the half-court game, that they’ve been unable to divert attention to maximizing their resources on the fast break. They had to fix the major flaws first. For the most part, they did. The next logical phase is to stay as sharp in the half-court game while consciously trying to increase fast break opportunities, by forcing more turnovers via hounding perimeter defense and engaging in transition mode whenever possible.
Recommendation No. 2: Adopt an Attack Mentality
Although there are things scheme-wise that can be done to improve on the fast break, the best way to increase fast break points is to have an aggressive mentality whenever the defense is vulnerable in transition. Russell Westbrook and James Harden don’t secure a rebound and immediately set up a play. If the defense is backpedaling and out of position, they attack immediately by pushing the ball upcourt, waiting for a defender to brave enough to throw themselves in their way and slow them. That’s how they increase transition possessions and thus fast break points.
I think the Cavs have seen Kyrie Irving embrace this mentality over the last several games, such as with the one-man fast break from last Thursday’s Spurs game (above) that probably sparked the comeback against one of the NBA’s best teams and least sloppy defenses. It was also on full display in Sunday’s Orlando game. It was not in Monday’s Miami game (the Cavs had only four fast break points on Monday), but that was the exception and no longer the rule. LeBron has always been at his best in attack mode.
Simply put, the Cavs are the best team in the NBA on the fast break, and they can’t afford to let 11 teams attempt more possessions in transition. The Cavs are forgoing somewhere between three and six easy points per game by being complacent upon obtaining possession. Three-to-five more transition possessions could be the difference between the Cavs averaging 108 points per game and 110 points per game. The Cavs are 20-1 when scoring 110 or more points, and 14-2 when scoring 16 or more fast break points per game. That’s two buckets a game that can be earned through a tweak in philosophy, and could be the difference between a good team and a juggernaut.
A few weeks ago, I compared the Cavs offense to a crafty, mildly dangerous cat, and its offense when utilizing the fast break to a ferocious tiger that will tear its victims to pieces. When the Cavs are on the break, their offense is a ferocious killing machine. The ball moves more, which is contagious to the whole team. It makes both defense and offense more fun, as Iman Shumpert knows. So when the Cavs secure rebounds and force turnovers, they need to look to kill, not just to maim. The Cavs are legitimate when their offense meows, but terrifying when it gets on the fast break and roars.
- According to the NBA’s amazing play type tracking data for transition possessions. It’s important not to conflate “points in transition” with “fast break points” throughout this discussion. NBA.com describes that a “transition possession” occurs when “the possession-ending event comes before the defense sets following a possession change and a transition from one end of the court to the other.” It describes fast break points as “points scored by a player or team while on a fast break.” It’s not really clear what the hell that means, but it is recorded in NBA box scores (and has been for some time) while the NBA’s transition data is driven by the new SportsVU technology, and is thus brand new. It appears that the NBA counts all points occurring early (about six seconds or fewer) in the shot clock after a change in possession as fast break points, though the scorekeeper may have some discretion. This means that a point in transition can be a fast break point, but not all points in transition can be a fast break point. The rectangle can be a square, but not all rectangles are squares. I’d be happy to hear from anyone that has more definite information or is interested in an abstract theoretical discussion on various transition points. [↩]
- Utah’s Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors are also both in the top ten. So they’re probably the only other big men duo that could also stake a claim to the title I bestowed upon Thompson and Mozgov. [↩]
- It’s not true, but for some reason I happened to stumble upon more plays with Mozgov dunking. [↩]
3 Comments
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I’ve never seen a big man eye the floor for a long outlet like Love. Often he’s looking down floor before he lands with the ball. Wes Unseld would rocket the ball with ease to a teammate at half court but didn’t go for the bomb nearly as often. Love’s passes get “intercepted” way more than I expected. Either a lot of teams anticipate it or his risk tolerance is high because he knows most of his teammates are still in decent defensive position if he throws it away..
My theory is the Cavs are fine on both fast breaks offensively and defensively.
I’d love to see clean data that takes out all the 4th quarter boatraces. Cavs up 25 points, the other teams fast break and score. Cavs have Delladova walk it up, repeat.
They aren’t tops but they arent that bad either.