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March 24, 2015What we can learn from the Browns in Free Agency
March 24, 2015In simple terms, the 2014 Cleveland Indians defense was a comedy of errors. The laughs extended to several comically range-limited defenders as well as some unfortunate injuries at key positions. The defense was so poor that the Indians ranked in last place in both Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and in Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). They were able to obtain second to last place in the DEF statistic, which also factors in total defensive innings played1.
Here’s how the Tribe fared in DEF by position last year:
Position |
C |
1B |
2B |
3B |
SS |
CF |
LF |
RF |
2014 DEF Rank |
5 |
24 |
29 |
29 |
14 |
26 |
29 |
27 |
There were two mitigating factors that made the Indians defense not as relatively harmful as it could have been. First, ranking just ahead of the Indians in DEF were the division rival Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, and Detroit Tigers2. Also, the pitching staff was among the best in MLB at striking batters out, which meant less hit balls to actually field, as WFNY’s Jacob Rosen noted on Friday.
However, the Indians defense actually played better in August and September largely due to the promotions of two unheralded prospects, Tyler Holt and Jose Ramirez. The injection of these defensive players ended up lifting the overall defense3 . It is possible and perhaps expected that the lift will continue this season. So, it is time to break it down position-by-position and see where fans can expect to see the largest defensive lifts.
Catcher
It is possible that Yan Gomes will not be as dominant at defense as he was last season, but his spring showings seem to indicate that his defensive prowess will continue. In fact, replacing the 152 innings of Carlos Santana and George Kottaras with Roberto Perez may even lift the catcher position slightly higher. However, any change in the overall defense from the Indians is not expected to be from this position.
Prognosis: Any change minimal
First Base
Neither Nick Swisher nor Carlos Santana was effective at manning first base last season. In fact, both Jesus Aguilar and Lonnie Chisenhall rated better though their collective sample size was much smaller. The hopes for improvement at this position center around Carlos Santana having an offseason to work at first base and focus solely on the position. In 2014, Santana only moved over to first base after a failed attempt to take the hot corner job from Lonnie Chisenhall. Coupled with his early season troubles at the plate, he never seemed to find a good rhythm in the field.
The early results from this spring have shown that Santana looks to be improved as a defender at first base. The growth as a defender also makes sense as he grows more comfortable with the position. Caution for the overall effectiveness at the position is still warranted until we know Terry Francona’s plan for Nick Swisher. Nick has struggled to overcome his knee injury and the effects of the injury could still hamper him in the field throughout the season. However, improvements from Santana should overshadow those innings4 .
Prognosis: Moderately better
Second Base
A dirty little secret about Jason Kipnis when he was hitting well was that he was not that great of a fielder. He was much like Asdrubal Cabrera in that he would field well when the ball was hit to him, but his range was lacking compared to his peers. However, his tendency to dive into the dirt to attempt to make plays gave him the Dirtbag nickname and an over-valued estimation of his defense from many fans. Unfortunately, his defensive issues came under an even brighter microscope in 2014 when he was battling an oblique injury that caused him to suffer at the plate and hurt his range in the field even more. The good news is that Jason is expected to be relatively healthy for the regular season and should return to his normal defense. The bad news is that his normal is slightly below average and the defense at second base likely stays below average even when factoring in some innings for the steady Mike Aviles.
Of course, the undercurrent here is that Jose Ramirez looked great at second base last year. If Francisco Lindor is promoted and takes starting shortstop, then it is possible to slide Jose Ramirez to second base and form one of the best double-play teams in MLB. Such a promotion would likely not happen until the summer, but it could lift this position from below average to a top ten position overall.
Prognosis: Significantly better after Lindor promotion
Third Base
There was no secret that third base defense was a disaster for the Indians in 2014. Carlos Santana never got comfortable with the position and, while he was better than Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall made far too many poor plays. Fortunately, the team decided to end the Santana experiment at third base. Unfortuantely, based on spring games, Lonnie does not look like he is going to make a significant leap in defense this year. Even the steady Mike Aviles struggles at third base to some extent. Therefore, expect there to be some minimal progress from Lonnie in defense, but do not expect a drastic change at this position.
Even Terry Francona and Lonnie Chisenhall have sounded like they are a bit frustrated that Lonnie hasn’t made the next step yet. After yesterday’s game, Francona told Jordan Bastian “He has the tools to be a really good third baseman. You see the plays he makes — like yesterday. And then, today, sometimes he forgets some of the things he’s working on. He was mad at himself.”
Note: All of this changes if the team makes the bold choice to move Jose Ramirez to third base instead of second base when they promote Lindor. If Lonnie struggles to hit to begin the year, then this becomes a viable option, but I do not want to double-count the Francisco defensive bump, so I will leave this position alone (for now). It is also possible that Ramirez slides over to second base and Kipnis to third base, but it would be unpredictable to determine how Kipnis would do at third base or if his arm strength would allow such a move.
Prognosis: Slightly better
Shortstop
It would be easy to see the No. 14 ranking at shortstop, the much lower rankings at other positions, and assume that any significant improvements to the Indians defense would have to happen elsewhere. But, that assumption would completely miss the transformation of the shortstop defense that happened after the trade deadline in 2014. After Asdrubal Cabrera5 was traded to the Washington Nationals, Jose Ramirez assumed the starting shortstop duties and proceeded to post better defensive ratings than any team in MLB6. Ramirez now enters the 2015 as the starting shortstop with Mike Aviles ready to back him up7. And, at some point this season, it is expected that the Indians top prospect and defensive specialist, Francisco Lindor, will be promoted and also be given innings at shortstop. Therefore, expect shortstop to be a position of strength for the team this year.
Prognosis: Significantly better
Center Field
A healthy Michael Bourn was one of the league’s most valuable defensive center fielders when the Indians signed him after the 2012 season. However, a healthy Michael Bourn has not been a player the Indians have seen much since he has played for the team. In 2014, Bourn struggled mightily with hamstring injuries and it limited his range, which had been his defensive strength throughout his career. Bourn’s injuries also forced Michael Brantley shift over to center field for significant innings after Nyjer Morgan proved to be a disaster defensively there. Brantley was surprisingly adequate in center field, but he does not have the range to play there. However, an August call-up may have given the Indians their answer for Bourn’s under-study as Tyler Holt demonstrated an ability to play all three outfield positions extremely well, but did his best in center field8.
Bourn has looked spry and healthy this spring (in the field and beating out infield grounders at the plate). The hope is that continues and he has regained the range that made him among the best center fielders in MLB. If he continues to be plagued by injuries though, then the Indians have a backup option in their system ready to replace him whether or not Tyler starts the year in Columbus.
Prognosis: Significantly better
Left Field
Michael Brantley’s 2014 DRS was 0. The details of the score indicate that any of the runs he saved with his good arm (3 runs) or making a good fielding play (2 runs) were given up by his poor range (minus 5 runs). However, it should also be noted that Ryan Raburn, Chris Dickerson, Mike Aviles, and others accounted for nearly one third of the innings in left field at a much worse defensive rate than Michael Brantley. Just having Michael Brantley stay away from center field and remain in left is enough to give this position a mild bump. Adding in Tyler Holt as a defensive substitute instead of the awful left field defensive players that were utilized last season increases the likelihood of a rise here.
Prognosis: Moderately better
Right Field
The only position that could even come close to the consternation that was caused last season by third base is right field. Just like in Little League, it seemed that Terry Francona would often just throw the worst fielder into right field with the hopes that no opposing player would hit it there. Unfortunately, unlike Little League, MLB players are somewhat capable of targeting the weakness of a defense. So, David Murphy and Ryan Raburn combining for 1146 innings of poor defense was quite noticeable.
Acquiring Brandon Moss may have seemed like a small move in the offseason, but with it, GM Chris Antonetti was able to firmly put Murphy and Raburn on the bench, and push Nick Swisher into the role of designated hitter (when he returns). There were legitimate fears that Moss would be slow to overcome his offseason hip surgery, but he came back quicker than projected and has not had any setbacks in his recovery. Now, Moss has had some defensive issues in the past, but was quietly effective last year, particularly in right field. Unfortunately, while Tyler Holt may wind up being the primary backup in left and center fields9, it is likely that Murphy and Raburn will continue to be the backups in right. So, unless Murphy has a bounceback defensive season, the Indians should expect to see some defensive liabilities there.
Prognosis: Moderately better
Overall Prognosis
The Indians should expect to continue the second half defensive improvements that they had and add into those a lift from the promotion of Francisco Lindor, the hopeful health of Michael Bourn and Jason Kipnis, and better known backup defensive talent should they need it. I do not forsee that the Indians are going to be a defensive powerhouse, but they should be slightly above or below league average on defense (depending on how hard they are hit with injuries).
Caveats
Defensive Statistics
The NBA has released many of their player tracking data for public consumption. Soon, being able to queue up the flight of the ball and seeing the path the outfielders take to it will be part of our analysis. MLB introduced Statcast last season, and plan to roll it out to all MLB parks this season. It is likely that not all of the data will be available for public consumption, but the more demand, the quicker that will change. Until that tracking data is available though, the defensive metrics and eye test will have to do.
And, yes, despite Brandon Phillips feelings on advanced statistics, they current statistics are better than going on the old fashioned eye test, unless you happen to be an advanced MLB scout who watches nearly every game.
In fairness though, here are Brandon Phillips deep thoughts on the matter:
I feel like all of these stats and all of these geeks upstairs, they’re messing up baseball, they’re just changing the game.
Well, he doesn’t mention the geeks in the basements, so perhaps the internet community is exempt from his wrath.
Injuries
I noted the depth options in the positions above because they will directly play into the overall defensive statistics on those wonderful getaway Thursday lineups, but also when injuries happen. While the 2015 Indians have more defensive depth (and I didn’t even talk about some of the defensive guys like Giovanni Ursela that could be called upon), they are not immune and an injury to a key position could have significant impact on the overall defense.
Minor League Rabble
During the course of a 162 game season, guys like Chris Giminez and Chris Dickerson10 will get called up to the Indians and put in significant innings. Some of them will give a boost, but many will be overwhelmed and struggle. The amount of their cumulative effect they have will directly be tied into how many injuries the Indians have.
- First/worst were the rebuilding Houston Astros [↩]
- On the other hand, it did not help that the AL Champion Kansas City Royals were almost a full run better per game at defense. [↩]
- They also hit surprisingly well. [↩]
- or, Francona may just allow Swisher to DH when he plays and Lonnie becomes the surprisingly effective backup first baseman [↩]
- Asdrubal was just named the starter for the Tampa Bay Rays at shortstop. [↩]
- That does not necessarily mean that he was the best defensive shortstop as the full team metrics include backups playing as well. Still, it is impressive. [↩]
- SS is Aviles’ best defensive position. [↩]
- Only 37 innings [↩]
- And the injury replacement should an injury happen [↩]
- And even some prospects not named Chris. [↩]
10 Comments
We need to be better this year on D. Hard to imagine we won all those games last year despite our D.
Didn’t they just commit three errors in a spring training game two by Chisenhall?
Fantastic write up MG,
Also hoping that Carlos being solidified back at 1st helps heat up his bat as there should be no more “well his head is in a mess from learning 3rd base” talk this year’s go around.
I really do think that our defense struggles because our offense struggled and vice versa.
Last year’s mix of players out of position did damage to both sides.
We had 2 errors against the A`s on Monday, one credited to Lonnie and the other to Santana (though it would be have been a tough grab). That broke up a stretch of 5 straight games that the projected starters for the Indians had not had an error (last one also by Lonnie, Sunday March 15th). And, I think my thoughts on Lonnie are pretty clear.
It’s more than just the errors though. The range is an important part of the defensive equation.
Agreed. My hope is that Francona uses the depth that we have to account for any injuries instead of a complete shuffle where many people are now out of place.
Lonnie’s bat has to trump his glove I think everyone realizes that I still maintain Kipnis @ 3b, Lindor @ SS and Ramirez @ 2B is the future but I’m not making those decisions.
As far as range goes if you can’t get to a ball are your defensive statistics effected? Isn’t this the method that helped many say Brantley was such a great fielder?
If you can’t get to a ball then your range score goes down
I should have known there would be some sort of measurement for this too. Who makes this decision is it the same person who determines whether a runner should have scored from second or turn a single into a double? #2manystats
it is supposed to be distance player traveled. however, as noted above, Statcast should revolutionize how this information is gathered as we will be able to see exactly a player’s expected radius range based on what he has done.
Well it looks like Michael is not looking farther than his nose, talking about third base, the indians have a way better third base in Columbus, even a golden glove caliber player, Giovanny urshela, maybe Michael dos not lilke him, cause he did not mention the kid, and to tell you the truth the kid is pusshing Lonie’s ass!!