Thoughts on the signing of Josh McCown
March 2, 2015CSU’s Lewis, Grady, Lee earn All-Horizon League honors
March 2, 2015Can a team that fell short of the playoffs and didn’t make many headlines in the offseason actually be among the favorites heading in to the next year? If you ask Grantland’s Jonah Keri, that answer is a resounding ‘Yes’ as the Cleveland Indians are ranked fifth in his 2015 MLB Preview. Keri makes sure to let readers know that last year’s results do not matter; it’s a fresh start for all and each team is ranked based on how they look this spring. Couple Cleveland’s relative youth with the regression of other would-be roadblocks, and it looks like the city’s good fortunes won’t stop with the Cavaliers this summer.
Here’s Keri:
5. Cleveland Indians
Now this is a bandwagon I will not be trying to slow down. Put it this way: Last year, the Indians won 85 games despite an injury-plagued Jason Kipnis flukishly hitting like a 75-year-old Rey Ordonez and the combination of first baseman Nick Swisher, utility man Mike Aviles, and outfielders Ryan Raburn, Michael Bourn, and David Murphy providing nearly 2,000 plate appearances worth of sub-replacement-level performance. Three of those five guys have been relegated to bench duty this year, while Bourn and Swisher still look to be significant contributors, albeit on a short leash. The addition of Brandon Moss plus a healthy Kipnis could significantly boost results for a team that finished seventh in the AL in runs scored and ninth in homers last year. Meanwhile, the rotation includes defending Cy Young winner Corey Kluber alongside not one, not two, but three starting pitchers who look like prime breakout candidates: Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar, and Carlos Carrasco. Combine the revitalized offense with a potentially fantastic group on the mound and you have an extremely dangerous club — one that might very well end Detroit’s AL Central reign.
So where does this stack up with the rest of the league? Well, for starters, the Tribe is third among American League teams, falling short of only the Seattle Mariners (3) and Los Angeles Angels (4). The Detroit Tigers come in 10th with the White Sox (14), Kansas City Royals (23) and Minnesota Twins (27) rounding out the AL Central.
The Royals, who represented the AL in the World Series just a few months ago, fall drastically due to their loss of ace starter James Shields—Keri says they’re eying up fourth in the division. The Tigers, who continue to be lumped in as the Tribe’s biggest road block to the post season, is labeled as having some big “bust potential” thanks to their loss of key arms, their perennially weak bullpen, and their inflated contracts that are starting to catch up.
It could be argued that the Indians’ youth and lack of a track record could easily be a bubble looking to pop, but it’s easy to forget that last year’s squad, which seemingly struggled at the plate, was actually one of the best run-producing units in the game. In 2015, their leader in power numbers could very well be a guy who wasn’t on the roster a season ago in Brandon Moss. Things appear to be trending up.
17 Comments
Keri joins the growing list of projections that have the Indians in the playoffs. So far, only baseball prospectus projections have us outside the playoffs (that I have seen), and they have issued an apology (that their projection model didn’t know what to do with Kluber’s breakout performance).
I haven’t been so high as others have been on the rotation, but I’m very confident about the offense. Spring officially begins tomorrow. I think I’ll break out the grill for that.
Lest we forget…
https://jsportsblogger.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/cleveland-indians-si-cover.jpg
I just hope that Kipnis hasn’t prematurely entered The Hafner Zone. It seems like some baseball players are doomed to have oblique injuries every year from here to eternity… I hope Kipnis isn’t one of those guys.
I’m really excited for the season. Last year I was pretty upset about the loss of Kazmir and the bad start compounded things. I’m excited to see Kipnis and Santana hopefully bounce back with better seasons and watching Brantley play is a joy. Brantley may regress a little from last years stats but he’s so disciplined it’s easy to have confidence in him. The wild card is always pitching. I hope Kluber can maintain what he’s done the past 2 years. The biggest question mark and also what I am most excited to watch are the Three Chicos: Carrasco, Salazar and Bauer. They all have so much potential and if they can all bring it together for a season it will be a good summer.
or the Carlos Baerga Zone
of course, he had some off field issues as well.
1985 Indians 60-102
1986 Indians 84-78
1987 Indians 61-101
2013 Indians 92-70
2014 Indians 85-77
2015 Indians ??
Just saying that there is at least some more solid reasoning for the high expectations. It may all fall apart (baseball is weird), but it is not based on a foundation of sand.
It’s gotta be a body type thing, right? That’s what worries me about Kipnis. It seems like proportionally squat guys with shorter arms are doomed.
It also seems like the bullpen could easily be better this season.
“Baseball is weird”. Exactly. It seems to me to be the most unpredictable sport. Particularly because of pitching. Which is strange because of the three major sports in The U.S. it is the one with the most metrics and analytics involved. I’m excited for the season and agree with a lot of the predictions. However, if we totally flop, for some reason I will not be at all surprised.
Maybe that’s also because of Cleveland.
I’ll be in Vegas for March Madness. May have to drop some dollars on the Tribe to win it all.
Force of habit.
A fine idea
As with really any professional sport for the most part, stay healthy, stay in the playoff race.
Have you played with the new kinetic sand? 🙂
seemed like when Kip was raking, he was making shorter swings and just popping it into gaps or just above the infielders.
Well, a short swing doesn’t necessarily mean less power. Hafner had a short/compact swing. As long as you are ramping up your bat speed, it can actually be an advantage because it’s harder to pitch you inside. I thought Kipnis would naturally add more muscle as he got older and naturally add more power, but I think the downside of that is that adding more muscle to a squat frame can take away from your flexibility and lead to more muscle pulls. Especially the obliques when you’re talking about swinging a bat.