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March 23, 2015With just two weeks before the season begins in Houston, manager Terry Francona is not far from making the decisions that will shape the end of the Indians’ opening day roster. With spots up for grabs in the outfield, on the starting staff, and in the bullpen, the Tribe has some camp battles that are still in full swing. Who will round out the utility spots? Who’s nabbing that fourth outfielder spot? And who’s going to win that much-discussed fifth spot in the rotation? Let’s take a look at a few of these roster situations and share in what direction Tito should go.
Let’s start with our given locks for the Opening Day roster. Barring injuries, there are 22 players who will certainly be on the roster on April 6. For the sake of argument here, since Nick Swisher has only recently started baserunning, he’s still experiencing some pain after said running, and given Tito’s comments, we will pencil him on the disabled list to start the season. This leaves us with…
Hitters (12): Yan Gomes, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, José Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall, Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn, Brandon Moss, David Murphy, Mike Aviles, Ryan Raburn, Roberto Perez
Pitchers (10): Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, TJ (not T.J.) House, Zach McAllister, Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, Scott Atchison, Mark Rzepczynski, Kyle Crockett
Let’s start with backup catcher. Roberto Perez is the clubhouse leader to make the roster to spell Yan Gomes. With Carlos Santana’s full migration to first base, his catching days appear to be over except in cases of extreme emergency. For a manager that often carries just 12 hitters, it’s difficult to give one of those spots to Perez when Santana could in theory catch the one in out of every 8-9 games Yan needs off behind the dish. But, Santana is so crucial to this lineup that losing him due to dings behind the plate is something the Indians have to avoid. He only played 11 games behind the plate last year, and that’s 11 more than we are likely to see this year. This isn’t a knock on Perez’s ability but rather a comment on how much Tito uses his bench and having only a three-man bench with one being a backup catcher.
We’ve heard Francona say that Zach McAllister, who is out of options, is going to make the team. However, we don’t know whether that will be as the fifth starter or out of the bullpen. The Indians won’t need a fifth starter until the sixth game of the year on April 12, so if the winner of the fifth starter sweepstakes still has options, it’s possible he could be sent down for a short while. Nevertheless, it’s a four-man race between Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, Bruce Chen, and Shaun Marcum. Long-term, everyone appears to be on board with Salazar as the guy. Salazar, however, needed some time in the minors last season to get things straightened out, and this spring, he’s walked five and surrendered three homers in 7 2/3 innings. Following Salazar’s four-inning outing, Tribe pitching coach Mickey Callaway said: “Obviously, his stuff has been there. It’s just now getting it over the plate enough to where it’s going to be effective.”
Tomlin has experienced some shoulder soreness and is still working on getting stretched out to starter length. The Indians brought Marcum back after signing him in 2014 following shoulder surgery. He only pitched 15 1/3 innings at Columbus after spending most of last year in Arizona rehabbing. Given his track record between 2007-2012 with Toronto and Milwaukee where he started 148 games, Marcum could be the latest effective starter saved from the scrap heap. While Marcum is prone to giving up the long ball (1.2 HR/9), he keeps his walks down (2.7 BB/9) and strikes out over seven hitters per nine as well. Chen, now 37, just keeps bumping along through the majors. Despite a career FIP (fielding-independent pitching, consisting of walks, hits by pitch, strikeouts, and homers) of 4.91 and five years since 2006 with a ERA north of five, he’s been able to stick around due to his ability to eat innings. He’s got a bit of a Justin Masterson thing going with alternating good and bad years over the last four years, and after allowing 40 runs in 48 1/3 innings last season, maybe he’s in for a positive one.
In time, the Indians may go back to 13 pitchers, but with the fifth starter not needed immediately and the injury to Swisher, it may make sense to break camp with 13 hitters instead. The guy who would be added to the list of 12 men above would be outfielder Tyler Holt. His defense as a late-inning replacement in right field, backing up Bourn in center, and speed are a plus (33-of-39 in stolen attempts total last year), and he hit .268 in 36 games last year. He also had a .798 OPS between Akron and Columbus last season while walking 66 times against 71 strikeouts (though he walked only three times in Cleveland). Once Swisher is back, Holt could conceivably stick around with Ryan Raburn becoming a roster casualty if he’s not hitting. Raburn’s owed $2.5 million, so after getting nothing out of the $4 million spent on Gavin Floyd, the Indians will at least break camp with Raburn, hoping to rekindle some ounce of 2013.
Back to the bullpen where five spots (six if McAllister ultimately winds up there) are in ink, we still need to find two more arms with which to head North (err, East to Houston). One of them might very well be right-hander C.C. Lee, who pitched a ton for the Indians down the stretch. The one drawback to Lee is that only 39 batters out of the 127 he faced in 2014 were in high or medium leverage situations. In essence, Lee was on the fringe of the circle of trust in Francona’s bullpen. If he was pitching in a high leverage situation, it was usually just for one batter against a right-handed hitter when Atchison, Shaw, and Allen weren’t options that early (or late in extra innings) in the game. Spring stats are fickle, but Lee’s only allowed two hits in five outings.
Nick Hagadone could become the third lefty in the pen due to his being out of options. He was quite effective last year, and he pitched in situations with more leverage (40-of-91 batters faced in high or medium). His burden has always been control at the big league level, walking 4.7 per nine in his career but just 2.3 in 2014. Hags also hasn’t allowed a baserunner in 4 2/3 innings in Cactus League play.
Looking beyond Lee and Hagadone, another one of the fifth starter consolation prizes could be in the bullpen for Chen, Tomlin, or Marcum. Veteran arms Anthony Swarzak and Scott Downs are also in camp, as well as Austin Adams and Bryan Price. Swarzak would fill the long man role as he gobbled up 86 innings for Minnesota last year, almost exclusively out of the bully. Swarzak did give up a grand-slam to former Indian Matt Carson last weekend (he’s with the Dodgers now), but Francona compared him to Atchison’s situation last season, so don’t count him out just yet. Downs is a 39-year-old lefty that’s been on four different clubs in the last two seasons. He also has an out in his minor-league contract by June 1 if he doesn’t reach the big leagues.
All of that discussion, and now we’re down to brass tacks. Three spots. Who gets them? My forecast: Tyler Holt, Nick Hagadone, and C.C. Lee. I’ll give the fifth starter job to Shaun Marcum1, and with Swisher on the DL, that means there will be some quick changes not long after the season starts. I’m putting Raburn and Lee on notice to pack light. The Indians break with 13 hitters and 12 pitchers, but they may flip that majority at some point in the season if their bench is flexible enough to handle it. We certainly won’t forget about Danny Salazar either, who will wind up being here for a good portion of the year.
- Marcum is on the record saying that he’d like to stay in the organization and would accept an assignment to Columbus. I would think that would especially be the case if it was merely a formality before he joined the team. [↩]
9 Comments
few more weeks…
Just 2 until Opening Day though it’s in Houston.
I don’t hear you complaining about that.
Please note that Kirk also picked Shaun Marcum to be the fifth starter and that I did not in any way knowingly bribe him to do it.
WFNY, the unofficial spokesperson for veteran Shaun Marcum as fifth starter of the Indians to open the year before giving way to Danny Salazar later on.
I think we need a shorter/catchier tagline.
They even gave us a 7 pm start!
I know, and can you believe that Cleveland/Houston is part of ESPN’s Opening Day of baseball? At a primetime slot? What the heck is going on in the world?
I’m all in… you know, if Marcum is healthy and all.
I think the other way is the best way to keep both around. Like Kirk said, Marcum will be open to going to Columbus. If you start him in Cleveland, what do you do with him when Salazar is ready?
he hasn’t pitched in a couple years, so I expect his innings to be capped. and, while Marcum is open to Columbus, he also has said he will first explore if anyone wants to put him in their rotation.