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March 26, 2015Mark Price to become head coach at UNC-Charlotte
March 26, 2015Rebuilding a baseball team takes exactly six years – or at least that’s how the Cleveland Indians’ meticulous approach has generally unfolded since the Hank Peters era. The Joe Carter trade in 1989 eventually begat the 1995 AL Champs. The blowing up of that dynasty after the 2001 season built the foundation for the 2007 ALCS squad. And now, six years after Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez were jettisoned amidst a public outcry, we stand here again, potentially on the verge of another sustained run with a core group. The main question is, how long will this version of the Tribe’s “window of opportunity” remain open?
A second, dumber question is, “what type of window are we talking about?” Casement, slider, double-hung? Let’s find out…
It’s been interesting to watch the growing wave of enthusiasm building around the Tribe in recent months, particularly considering that (a) 2014 was a mildly disappointing season after the Wild Card showing a year prior, and (b) the addition of Brandon Moss was the only notable hot stove move the club made to improve itself. In a strange way, it’s not the star power or undeniable talent on this squad that’s given the national prognosticators a case of Indian Fever. It’s the fact that this team—more than maybe any other club in the American League—looks loaded for the long term, with lots of abstract “upside” to spare. Title aspirations aside, the Cleveland Indians are decidedly NOT the Cleveland Cavaliers. There is no stress-inducing locker room drama or foreboding sense of having to win NOW before everybody changes their minds and takes their talents to different beaches. At the risk of sounding like a generic villain from a CBS procedural, “nobody in this room is going anywhere.”
That sense of stability starts in the front office—with the much maligned team of Mark Shapiro and Chris Antonetti now in their 17th year together with this franchise. Their pal Tito Francona, whom some fans feared was only making a brief pit stop in Cleveland before seeking greener pastures, is entering his third season now and is signed through at least 2018. Shining in such stark contrast to, say, the leadership of our city’s football franchise, this kind of year-to-year dependability cannot be overstated.
With Francona at the helm for at least four more seasons (barring a chicken-and-beer situation emerging in the interim), the Indians’ window has a solid frame in place. So what about the cast of characters under his tutelage? How has that John Hart approach of avoiding arbitration and extending young players worked out for Hart disciples Shapponetti? Well, let’s see it in black and white, looking at the club’s current core group. If there’s a * by a player’s name, it means the Indians have a team option to keep him an additional year or more, and a ^ thingy means there is a vesting option.
Under Team Control Through 2016:
1B Carlos Santana (age 28)*
OF Brandon Moss (31)
OF Michael Bourn (32)^
DH Nick Swisher (34)^
Through 2017:
3B Lonnie Chisenhall (26)
OF Michael Brantley (27)*
SP Carlos Carrasco (28)
RP Bryan Shaw (27)
Through 2018:
SP Corey Kluber (28)
RP Cody Allen (26)
RP Nick Hagadone (29)
RP Zach McAllister (27)
Through 2019:
C Yan Gomes (age 27)*
2B Jason Kipnis (27)*
Through 2020:
C Roberto Perez (26)
SS Jose Ramirez (22)
SS Francisco Lindor (21)
SP Trevor Bauer (24)
SP Danny Salazar (25)
SP TJ House (25)
RP CC Lee (28)
RP Kyle Crockett (23)
To review, the average age of the players above is 26.9. All of them are signed through at least next season, 18 of them are already under contract through 2017, and 14 can’t be free agents until after the 2018 season. Why, I do declare a wooly mammoth could walk through that there window.
Warning: If You’re Gonna Have Your Window Open, Better Put in a Quality Screen
It’s never fun to turn a cynical eye at news that looks so rosy, but this is Cleveland, so let’s do what’s in our blood to do. Even if the team extends Corey Kluber (negotiations are under way) and re-ups with Santana, the fact is, locking down a core group of talented young players doesn’t always play out quite as one would hope. Case in point… the Cleveland Indians, of roughly six years ago. While trading a pair of Cy Young Award winners grabbed all the attention, the best laid plans blew up with that team for many other reasons, among them:
1. The young pitching wasn’t what we thought it was. I’m not saying Carlos Carrasco is Fausto Carmona or TJ House is Jeremy Sowers. But yeah, those things are super possible.
2. Seemingly smart long term deals turned into financial albatrosses. I’m not saying Nick Swisher is Travis Hafner (even though I really want to) or that fluke injuries could potentially derail a Michael Brantley the same way they did Grady Sizemore. But one must be prepared for these sorts of left turns.
3. Spending money on a platoon of David Dellucci and Jason Michaels. I realize that, if you squint, David Murphy and Ryan Raburn look a lot like those people. But Brandon Moss is here now!
Of course, by the time 2018 rolls around, Clint Frazier might be the best player on the team, or Bruce Chen might be looking for a fourth consecutive 20-win season. The window has no timer. It is open until we—or, more accurately those damn-cheapskate-Dolans®—choose to close it.
17 Comments
I’m ready for some baseball anything that changes the subject from that awful football organization in Berea. The AL Central should be pretty tough this season.
Another great breakdown. Y’all are on a roll this week.
This, all day:
“It’s never fun to turn a cynical eye at news that looks so rosy, but this is Cleveland, so let’s do what’s in our blood to do”
“The Joe Carter trade in 1989 eventually begat the 1995 AL Champs. The blowing up of that dynasty after the 2001 season built the foundation for the 2007 ALCS squad. And now, six years after Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez were jettisoned amidst a public outcry, we stand here again, potentially on the verge of another sustained run with a core group.”
As an Indians fans for all those years, it saddens me to hear that 1994, 2005, and 2013 don’t seem to count.
To be serious though, I’m not sure if we should be talking about windows anymore. If we start at 2013, and are looking through 2020, and are coming off such well regarded drafts (ducks) that’s not a window. Right, a lot of things are completely unpredictable, but I think the Indians have done a good job adjusting to a different MLB environment. It used to be you needed to win 92+ to be thinking about the postseason, now you can be an 85 win team on paper, and maybe you get a couple of breaks to get to 88 and sneak in. You don’t need to time your roster to load up a powerhouse, but just keep rolling with a solid roster.
A fair point, but those seasons each were just the disappointing precursors to greater times ahead (at least with two of them and we all hope for the third as well).
Thank you sir. You combined the contract status and the ages to demonstrate why there is so much national acclaim for this team beautifully. Depth, youth, and stability are a beautiful thing.
note: as a stabilizing force, we could also look to the Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers budding dynasties from just a few years ago that didn’t ultimately happen because “baseball”
1994 was disappointing for other reasons, well beyond the team’s control. 2013 was far from disappointing. I’ll buy that 2005 had a disappointing finish, but I loved that team, and that 38-12 run down the stretch was some of the best baseball I’ve seen this organization play.
Lindor’s clock hasn’t started, so there’s not really any “through” year on him yet.
And please don’t compare Swisher to Hafner. Hafner did a lot more for this franchise than Swisher did. And while Hafner had trouble staying on the field, he was usually valuable when he could stay healthy (not counting ’08). He might not have been worth his contract and he might not have been the 1.000+ OPS guy he once was, but Hafner had a pretty nice career with the Tribe.
Nick Swisher is not Travis Hafner, he is much worse. Although their contracts were similar backbreakers. Hafner put up superstar numbers for a few seasons before the shoulder problems that Swisher never touched in his career. He only hit .280+ once and never had 100+ RBI. And after Hafner’s injuries, he was still somewhat productive. As for Swisher, I don’t think he will ever be able to play anywhere near the way he use to. Double knee surgery at 33 is probably a lot worse than nagging shoulder issues. My question is how he is going to run the bases from now on. And it’s hard to imagine he will be able to effectively play any position besides DH. Looks like we are stuck with a full-time DH who will struggle to hit .250 and can’t run the bases. I’d take Hafner, post-injuries, over that any day.
Absolutely. With the extra wild card, there really shouldn’t be a reason for a club to ever have to do an old school tear-down-and-rebuild (unless you’re currently bad and have been mismanaged for years like the Phillies).
I’m still getting used to organizations doing what the Padres or White Sox did this offseason. It used to be fairly stupid to stretch your resources trying to eek out win number 85. Like you said, now there’s no reason not to go for it.
Dude used to mash. Even his pop-ups were HRs
Oh I’m certainly not comparing peak Hafner to peak Swisher. Pronk was incredible for several years. The comparison is about bad contracts in their 30s. Pronk made $57 million between 2008 and 2012, ages 31-35. He only played in 100 games in one of those 5 seasons and never drove in more than 57 runs. Swisher is on the books for $56 million starting in 2013 (age 32) through 2016. It just feels like a similar situation of being stuck with a mostly injured DH who is completely untradable.
Is swisher in the house or not. If not, we need to get those screens in.
The “6-year” idea is not scientific in the slightest. I could certainly argue that the ’94, ’05, and ’13 teams were “ahead of schedule” in terms of their core groups being locked down and ready to enter their primes. But the main idea was just to show that the franchise has followed a fairly consistent blueprint for rebuilding. You make a good point about the wild card changing things. It’d be nice to think an all-out firesale would no longer be part of the plan, but the jury is out.
I always believed the Cleveland sports curse….especially when the players went on strike in ’94. The same team that went 100-43 in ’95 was just coming of age and its entirely possible that 1994 would have been a championship year.
You stated that you were not comparing Hafner to Swisher but their contracts were very similar. I wasn’t trying to indicate that you were but some people are saying that he has become Hafner, which I feel is a knock on Pronk.